What will happen to BTC price if the US defaults?

[Abiky]

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon. If that happens, the global economy will plunge to new lows. After all, the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. While BTC and altcoins are a new kind of asset class, they rely on the mainstream economy to survive. People usually tie BTC's market price to existing Fiat currencies (mainly the USD).

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

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[adaseb]

They are not going to default. You know what would happen if they defaulted? It would be chaos and Bitcoin would be the least of your concerns.

You know how many different countries are impacted by the US dollar. How many corps hold US treasuries? A default will never happen, especially to the US dollar. Nobody would want that to happen because it would cause a complete financial meltdown.

[EarnOnVictor]

You are missing a lot of facts here, which might be a misrepresentation of the situation and what the US and the USD stand for. For the record, the US has never defaulted since over 2 millennia ago, they can't now when it's in the hands of capable hands and better technology and economic exposure.

Your post might have been borne out of the pegging on the debt permissible by the Federal Treasury, which is a debatable issue and could be readjusted if need be.

Mind you, if the US defaults today, which currency would fit in perfectly as stable as it is? Do you think the world would even think of Bitcoin as an alternative? If you think so, then you are joking. Another fiat will be a viable choice, but none can still fit the show of the USD, for now, so the USD will still be preferred.

Even with the US default, it will have a temporary effect on the USD because they will measure it up with a fix as soon as possible, and the effect on BTC (positive or negative) will be minimal.

[pooya87]

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

[Husires]

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon.

This will not happen, do you know why? Because this is how the financial system works, being a global reserve currency means that your debts will be paid by all countries, not the United States, so they will print more and the debt ceiling will increase.

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

If this happens, Bitcoin is the last thing to worry about because this means that the Third World War has come and the victor will change the current features of the world.

US defaults does not necessarily mean an increase in the price of Bitcoin, but rather the failure of the current central systems.

[gunhell16]

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

Well, I kind of agree with what you said dude, the U.S. dollar doesn't have any backup, unlike other countries whose fiat currency is backed-up gold, unlike the U.S$ America which doesn't have anything except big debt.

So it's impossible to default, I don't believe that. Yes, there is a lot of speculation, but that's all there is to it. That's why many believe in bitcoin even though in the eyes of the majority it is impossible.

[stompix]

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

First, we will congratulate each other for living at least 100 years because I was in middleschool when the US was supposed to default and it's most likely my kid will finish college without it happening.
Second, nobody is going to give a damn about the bitcoin price anymore, with all markets collapsing, trade going bust and countries switching from 3rd world to sixth world economies, there will be nothing left to invest in Bitcoin anymore, you can see the effects right now in the markets, inflation war and fears of recessions have pushed the price down not up, it's optimism that has fueled the last bull run which seems to come to a halt, so if by a miracle the US defaults bitcoin will be the last of the world worry and for sure not something people will rush the trillions that are no longer there into.

This would be a clear example of: be careful what you wish for!

[Emitdama]

Too many weird questions, USA won't default on their debts, end of story. This has been talked about a million times already, and that is why I believe that we shouldn't really be wondering what to do, because we don't need to do anything or the price of bitcoin won't be affected or anything like that because it won't happen.

I know house has mainly republicans who will want to keep it as it is and not increase the ceiling, but enough protests from people will see them fix that too. I think the best thing about the current situation is that there are too many people who are wondering what to do and I think that is why it's such a good thing that we should be buying and taking advantage of the situation.

[GeorgeJohn]

One country can not abolish the existence of Bitcoin, that's what we have comprehend, but my instincts is telling me that it will affect Bitcoin if the rumors happened to be official, and another thing i find out in Bitcoin technology is that negative information or news really create impact in the market volatile in Bitcoin, but i believe that government can not eradicate the existence of Bitcoin.

[davis196]

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon. If that happens, the global economy will plunge to new lows. After all, the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. While BTC and altcoins are a new kind of asset class, they rely on the mainstream economy to survive. People usually tie BTC's market price to existing Fiat currencies (mainly the USD).

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

The USA owns the global money printing machine. How would they default? This doesn't make any sense.
The global fiat payment infrastructure(SWIFT) is also dominated by the USA. How many big banks and corporations are located in the USA?
There's no way for the USA to default. Of course many countries are already dumping their US treasury bonds and dollar reserves, but this has nothing to do with USA defaulting. The Federal Reserve will print more money and the US government will keep paying it's debts. The USD value will drop.
BTC and the altcoins are usually measured in US dollars, but that doesn't mean anything. If the US dollar value drops, one Bitcoin will be worth 100K USD or 500K USD, instead of 22K USD. And no, that doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin will become more valuable. The US dollar will simply become more worthless.

[hugeblack]

The wiser question is how long will the public debt ceiling be raised, especially since it has been moving at the fastest pace in a hundred years? How will the United States solve this problem?
Printing money is the easiest solution, but we will reach a stage where printing more money is absurd. Also, the increase in the number of people who do not see the United States as an ally, the increase in payment and dealing in currencies other than the dollar are all things that must be taken into account.

[OgNasty]

I don’t think that any good would come from a US default. You could make an argument that it would send Bitcoin’s value into the millions per coin, but I think the more likely scenario is all assets taking a major hit. I’m sure there will be survivors that go on to do well, but it’s impossible to say what actions the government would resort to in that scenario.

[SquallLeonhart]

The USA owns the global money printing machine. How would they default? This doesn't make any sense.
The global fiat payment infrastructure(SWIFT) is also dominated by the USA. How many big banks and corporations are located in the USA?
There's no way for the USA to default. Of course many countries are already dumping their US treasury bonds and dollar reserves, but this has nothing to do with USA defaulting. The Federal Reserve will print more money and the US government will keep paying it's debts. The USD value will drop.
BTC and the altcoins are usually measured in US dollars, but that doesn't mean anything. If the US dollar value drops, one Bitcoin will be worth 100K USD or 500K USD, instead of 22K USD. And no, that doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin will become more valuable. The US dollar will simply become more worthless.

The idea was politically I suppose, like they can avoid defaulting if they want to is something that is just factual and there is nothing around it, it is just a fact that they could print more and more money and get out of debt, there is no issues there. But will they? Was the question I suppose, if not then I do not know what OP is talking about.

There are politicians who says they should default the debt and face the reality, or even if not default, at least do not make more and just focus on the ones they have for a while until they are paid off, and I agree that it would be good to pay off debts, but they make enough profit to pay the last ones and make new ones so they won't bother with it.

[crzy]

There is no way to US to be on default, that will be a huge economic crisis and probably will be the start of another war, Bitcoin will not be spare from this because a lot of people will start to panic and prefer to have more cash than to have money online. I can’t imaging US being defaulted with their loans, that can be more worse than a pandemic so let’s not hope for that and I know US is working with their loans well and they are doing everything to prevent this kind of scenario.

[Abiky]

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

I could imagine how easy it is to raise the debt ceiling when the whole world depends on the US Dollar as its reserve currency. This may be more of a drama than anything else. It's likely the US will never default during our lifetimes, especially when most countries depend on the US Dollar. The de-Dollarization process would be a slow and steady one to say the least. You can bet Bitcoin will rise astronomically in price if the USD weakens by a large margin. But when this happens, the world would probably be using another currency (Euro, perhaps?) as its reserve currency.

American decline is happening before our very eyes, so it should only be a matter of time before the US is no longer a superpower. Let's see how Bitcoin will hold off in the long run. Just my thoughts

[yhiaali3]

They are not going to default. You know what would happen if they defaulted? It would be chaos and Bitcoin would be the least of your concerns.

You know how many different countries are impacted by the US dollar. How many corps hold US treasuries? A default will never happen, especially to the US dollar. Nobody would want that to happen because it would cause a complete financial meltdown.

Why can't it happen? I know that its occurrence will lead to the collapse of the entire global economic system and that all affected countries will hasten to repay the debt, but what if it happened? Of course, no one likes it to happen, but is it enough to say that it won't happen to prevent it from happening?

In 2008, the mortgage crisis occurred in America and almost caused a catastrophe for the collapse of the entire global economy, so Satoshi thought of inventing Bitcoin at that time to decouple the global economy from the dollar and avoid such a disaster in the future.

Unless the global system is disengaged from the dollar, the threat of global economic collapse will remain.

[Minecache]

They are not going to default. You know what would happen if they defaulted? It would be chaos and Bitcoin would be the least of your concerns.

You know how many different countries are impacted by the US dollar. How many corps hold US treasuries? A default will never happen, especially to the US dollar. Nobody would want that to happen because it would cause a complete financial meltdown.

Why can't it happen? I know that its occurrence will lead to the collapse of the entire global economic system and that all affected countries will hasten to repay the debt, but what if it happened? Of course, no one likes it to happen, but is it enough to say that it won't happen to prevent it from happening?

In 2008, the mortgage crisis occurred in America and almost caused a catastrophe for the collapse of the entire global economy, so Satoshi thought of inventing Bitcoin at that time to decouple the global economy from the dollar and avoid such a disaster in the future.

Unless the global system is disengaged from the dollar, the threat of global economic collapse will remain.

Because they own the machine that prints USD, and they can print as much as they want and withdraw whenever they want, as they were doing in 2022. Print money to save the economy during the pandemic, and now it's time to export inflation and withdraw USD.

I still haven't thought of the prospect of them falling, as long as something threatens their position as a great power, they will find a way to destroy it. It can be said that it is very unlikely that the US government will default or the US dollar will collapse.

If the US falls, there will be another great power to take its place, and that will be another centralized currency, not bitcoin. The chance of bitcoin is almost zero.

[adaseb]

I remember 20 years ago, before I invested or was involved in anything market related, they posted some debt/per person in the USA and it was crazy high. That was 20 years ago. People were saying that they had no choice but to default, did they?

No and they won't default anytime soon. They will just keep raising the debt limit and keep printing money. I don't think anyone wants them to default. It'll create more suffering than we already have. Plus the bonds are not showing any proof of defaults yet.

[aoluain]

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

This is how I understand the US economy and US$  progressing ^{or regressing!}

The only safe haven for anyone's wealth is Bitcoin. We have been told many times
particularly by Michael Saylor that there is no other comparable store of wealth.

In the scenario above the demand for Bitcoin would explode.

[STT]

Soft default not hard default.   Soft default is when you pay taxes for a national pension for 40 years then just before you retire they raise the age at which you can retire by 1 or 2 years, this is soft default.  They will not return the value promised but it wont be a hard default.   Reason we can so sure of the soft default is that it is just alot easier to allow to happen then the alternative which as mentioned above could lead to war and extreme consequences for government failure.
   The stated aim of the FED is 2% inflation, we may see them overshoot that to average 10% at times but the main reason is the debt load is reduced by that inflation and neither dollar or government will exactly default or fail to pay however great value will lost to private citizens and bond holders.