If history repeats itself: 2023 vs 2019

[STT]

The recovery in 2019 was far more consistent then at present I think though recent moves appear larger then they are and will matter less in retrospect.   Good reaction today to the 200 day average forming the lows and to confirm this as a positive move I want to see BTC price action trade above 20750 for this weekend into next week; this will give us the best chance moving positively forward.
  Ideally we need to recover 21500 from here on, even that much will take something extra to push against and above a descending trend in place since mid Feb.

[MoonOfLife]

The recovery in 2019 was far more consistent then at present I think though recent moves appear larger then they are and will matter less in retrospect.   Good reaction today to the 200 day average forming the lows and to confirm this as a positive move I want to see BTC price action trade above 20750 for this weekend into next week; this will give us the best chance moving positively forward.
  Ideally we need to recover 21500 from here on, even that much will take something extra to push against and above a descending trend in place since mid Feb.

History is still repeating itself, but it will be a little different, in 2019, we have no war, no crisis, no inflation… as it is now, so we cannot expect bitcoin to repeat precisely like 2019.
I still believe history will repeat itself, bitcoin still makes new ATHs after the halving, and that's when the world economy enters the recovery phase.

[irhact]

Bitcoin is indeed unique and often the same and recurring trends, which is popular, of course, is a 4 -year trend price skyrocketing and then the following year drops, and if in 2017 the price skyrocketed and 2018 is in the lowest and at the end of 2019 starting recovery, hopefully in 2023 it can Like 2019 and towards recovery, it is natural that many people believe that the price will reach $ 50K at the end of the year.

2023 is going to be like 2019 but don't we think $50k is too much of a recovery, if that's achieved this year then what's left for 2024 then. Lets not forget the recovery takes more than one year because the all time high doesn't get crossed until a year after halving which is 2025 therefore we still have the whole of 2024 for a recovering to commences.

I think this year is going to be bullish but not as bullish as the OP is projecting, $50k would be achieved next year not this year but this year would be somewhere around $30-$35k. This too can be considered bullish considering where the price is recovering from.

[ancafe]

2023 is going to be like 2019 but don't we think $50k is too much of a recovery, if that's achieved this year then what's left for 2024 then. Lets not forget the recovery takes more than one year because the all time high doesn't get crossed until a year after halving which is 2025 therefore we still have the whole of 2024 for a recovering to commences.

I think this year is going to be bullish but not as bullish as the OP is projecting, $50k would be achieved next year not this year but this year would be somewhere around $30-$35k. This too can be considered bullish considering where the price is recovering from.

For this year there has been a gradual recovery that has occurred in bitcoin, although market conditions have also experienced a small correction and currently bitcoin is starting to be pressured at a price of $ 20K, if you look at the recovery process that took place at the beginning of the year to date, then to reach a price of $ 50K will be it's a bit of a stretch and there hasn't been any approach or process that's likely to bring bitcoin to that price, let alone no signs of anywhere near $30-$35K in the near future.

Not that important for the price of bitcoin this year in my opinion, but what we do will take bitcoin to the next ATH milestone and that means we should be able to spot opportunities before they become more bullish and a correction opportunity may be used to make a purchase.

[BITCOIN4X]

For this year there has been a gradual recovery that has occurred in bitcoin, although market conditions have also experienced a small correction and currently bitcoin is starting to be pressured at a price of $ 20K, if you look at the recovery process that took place at the beginning of the year to date, then to reach a price of $ 50K will be it's a bit of a stretch and there hasn't been any approach or process that's likely to bring bitcoin to that price, let alone no signs of anywhere near $30-$35K in the near future.

Not that important for the price of bitcoin this year in my opinion, but what we do will take bitcoin to the next ATH milestone and that means we should be able to spot opportunities before they become more bullish and a correction opportunity may be used to make a purchase.

Some say March is not a good month to expect bitcoin price to break through a lot of resistance. I think part of their opinion is right, and in fact the market also got FUD impact during March at this time.

It's hard to expect $25K to hit during March, but I can expect it to be better in April or before the middle of the year. $30K will be reached, it will definitely take time and need more demand, but let's hope the market will recover after the $19K drop in the previous 24 hours.

[dragonvslinux]

With price back at $20K, price is in need of (another) +20% impulsive move back above 200 Day MA in order to return to 2019 fractal, which admittedly at present looks unlikely.



Something like this would be needed to continue the imminent uptrend, but instead of being against USDC, would need to be against US dollar 



My only thought for today is whether a USDT implosion, following the USDC sell-off, could cause another +20% move to the upside, back to around $24K.

[Unbunplease]

As I recall, the main rise in the bitcoin price began in 2019 around April 1, 2019. The Fed is due to meet on March 22, 2023. If the rate is raised by 25 points and not 50 (as many expect), we may see a nice rise in the bitcoin price. We will see soon - what will happen.

[Yamifoud]

...

My only thought for today is whether a USDT implosion, following the USDC sell-off, could cause another +20% move to the upside, back to around $24K.

The price trend shows such a good indication that we are most likely to be going up rather than moving down. I won't just expect $24k but $25k...lol
Honestly, we can't be sure that the USDC sell-off will affect the market long term. If this will sustain until next quarter, that be a huge bump in the market but I don't think this is enough to lead the market to a bullish one. This is a twist on the market history and something to note that not all happen in the past will also happen in the current days.

[Pejoh Asu]

Lots of interesting and unique facts about bitcoin price trends, of course what is commonly known by people is the 4-year upward trend that has occurred several times, it's only natural that we will study previous trends because it is proven to have the same pattern or graph, if we look at it at the beginning In 2019 and 2023 there will be many similarities until now and hopefully the price will rise again starting from April.

[dragonvslinux]

With price back at $20K, price is in need of (another) +20% impulsive move back above 200 Day MA in order to return to 2019 fractal, which admittedly at present looks unlikely.

So the market needed a +20% impulsive move back to the upside after re-testing the 200 Day MA, in order to stand a chance of continuing a parabolic run to the upside similar to 2019 fractal, and so far it looks like in the past couple of days we got exactly that. It's not something I was expecting, as already happened back in January, but it does put higher targets such as $50K this year very much back on the table imo.



Will update OP with up to date chart when BLX updates, but otherwise we're back in the "bull flag consolidation" price level. Maybe some short-term consolidation before finally breaking $25K?

[virasog]

As I recall, the main rise in the bitcoin price began in 2019 around April 1, 2019. The Fed is due to meet on March 22, 2023. If the rate is raised by 25 points and not 50 (as many expect), we may see a nice rise in the bitcoin price. We will see soon - what will happen.

I really do not think we need to compare the 2023 bitcoin price movement with that of 2019 as both times were different, the bitcoin adoption was at a different level and also the economic situation of 2019 and 2023 can never match. Therefore, i don't pay any attention even if we see some similarities in price movement of bitcoin.

Yes, i agree that we should wait for CPI data which will be released tomorow and the Fed meeting on 22 march and should not fall for this massive pump which is in place now. It could turn out to be a fake out if the numbers did not come out as expected.

[Fatunad]

As I recall, the main rise in the bitcoin price began in 2019 around April 1, 2019. The Fed is due to meet on March 22, 2023. If the rate is raised by 25 points and not 50 (as many expect), we may see a nice rise in the bitcoin price. We will see soon - what will happen.

I really do not think we need to compare the 2023 bitcoin price movement with that of 2019 as both times were different, the bitcoin adoption was at a different level and also the economic situation of 2019 and 2023 can never match. Therefore, i don't pay any attention even if we see some similarities in price movement of bitcoin.

Yes, i agree that we should wait for CPI data which will be released tomorow and the Fed meeting on 22 march and should not fall for this massive pump which is in place now. It could turn out to be a fake out if the numbers did not come out as expected.

There could be patterns but doesnt mean that it would really happen on the present or in future but somehow having these patterns do somewhat give us some idea on what are the things that might happen.
This is where most people been clinging on, on where they do believe that on upcoming years it would really be taking on the same path.This what makes really hard on dealing up with this market where
everything is unpredictable but well if it was predictable on the first place then getting rich would really be that easy. Take it slow and be sure on what
are the actions you would be doing.

[STT]

Its not a bad comparison, 2019 was a reflex reaction upwards after almost the whole of 2018 was negative, similarly 2022 was quite negative almost entirely.  However I think we are more obstructed this time, volume is in our way and we are sub 200 week average which to me says its a greater fight this time.

[EdenHazard]

Its not a bad comparison, 2019 was a reflex react upwards after almost the whole of 2018 was negative, similarly 2022 was quite negative almost entirely.  However I think we are more obstructed this time, volume is in our way and we are sub 200 week average which to me says its a greater fight this time.

Well , we will see if we keep breaking resistance after resistance this time we could go similar to what happens in 2019 but remember that before the halving occured next year we could have really a weak support as everyone looking for a boosting price but getting nothing but a gradual downward.

Looking good now with $24k, it's $20k though a couple days ago and that's how the charts works.

[DOH!]

This isn't intended to suggest the price will reach $50K, but simply comparing 2019 and 2023 bear market relief rallies and current progress, given the similarities so far. Don't make me point to the disclaimer.[/size]

I think by all accounts we are in for a well-documented and well-founded speculation that history repeats itself. We are in March and there are many positives, optimism... and also a lot of negative news that is likely to increase short-term pressure. $25k is a major breakthrough in momentum bitcoin has achieved this year. But we will fix it soon on the trend. I still think that the possibility of us reaching $ 50k is very possible.

[Mario Yamasaki]

Bitcoin is always interesting and there are many facts that can become hot and trending topics, if we look at the price chart, of course there are many similarities between now and 2019, of course this is because of the 4-year trend that often repeats itself.

[Ngewex Yuk]

Many make conclusions about bitcoin, of course what we hear most often is the trend that occurs every 4 years, namely the price will skyrocket and has happened 3 times, namely in 2013, 2017 and 2021, then another unique fact the price will drop more than 50% after the year and it seems that the price pattern that occurs is indeed very interesting for us to observe and conclude. and I think there are a lot of parallels that we can make between 2019 and 2023.

[Unbunplease]

It is possible that the manipulators will repeat 2019 to a certain point (as they did in 2021, which repeated 2017 until December 4, 2021, when history changed). So the possibility of a repeat of the underlying pattern is worth considering, but should not be completely relied upon.

[thecodebear]

I don't think we'll see $50k this year. But it certainly could happen. Plenty of time left in the year for sure, I just assume some events will knock it down here and there so maybe it only reaches $45k this year. I would definitely expect $50k to be hit next winter though. I think the price will actually be near the ATH by the time the halving occurs.

[Iranus]

I don't think we'll see $50k this year. But it certainly could happen. Plenty of time left in the year for sure, I just assume some events will knock it down here and there so maybe it only reaches $45k this year. I would definitely expect $50k to be hit next winter though. I think the price will actually be near the ATH by the time the halving occurs.

We haven't even crossed $30k yet, $50k expectations are very high compared to this year. In the context of world economic uncertainty, it is difficult to promote the recovery of financial markets and including bitcoin. We cannot make a price prediction for the end of the year, what I am expecting in the short term is for bitcoin to hit $30k this month. When the economy is extremely volatile, it is safer and more realistic to only make short-term predictions.