Will Bitcoin [eventually] collapse? (scholar’s opinion)

[Oleksiiko]

Hi, when I first heard about Bitcoin it changed my life. I left my [successful] career as a lawyer, I started coding and I went into academia and completed my PhD about blockchain.

I’d like to share my concerns about the future of Bitcoin. About its value, not price. About its purpose and utility. As I was always a true believer of Bitcoin and its open competitive consensus.

I projected bitcoin’s market dominance - and it indicates it is going to lose at least half of its market value within the next 3-5 years. And probably sooner or later  will give ground to Ethereum.

Though the problem is more than that. It has been locked in a paradigm that does not work. It had to become a [global] peer-to-peer electronic cash. The title and abstract of Nakamoto’s paper clearly state these goals.

But who even uses it as cash? I am looking at the number of transactions and I see pure speculation.
When was the last time someone bought anything for bitcoin? (ok, maybe on this forum there are more chances to see these rare people, but ask anyone in your town). It is not money and will not become so in its true meaning.

If you take a look at Top 10 on coinmarketcap you will see only Bitcoin and Dogecoin - two pure cryptocurrencies that are left in this list. Others are application platforms.

I clearly realise that Bitcoin should change its strategy.

Bitcoin still has one fundamental advantage - it is the most secure digital repository that humankind has ever created. This should be leveraged in its transformation into a web3/dapp platform.

Unfortunately, this Turing-complete smart contract narrative completely misled people, and apps on Bitcoin-like systems and apps on them are perceived as flawed systems, which is not true.

Throughout years of my academic research I came across a number of techniques of application development on bitcoin-like ledgers. I can say with 100% certainty there is no lack of technologies and techniques of developing well-designed and functional applications on Bitcoin, including token-applications. It is a matter of the community and its leaders - where they want to direct Bitcoin.

Before anything dramatic happens, before irreversible processes begin, I’d put my efforts with other thinkers into Bitcoin’s greater future.


If you wish to hear more thoughts about it you’re welcome to watch my video and join the discussion down below.
https://youtu.be/b_mWdQSZgPU


*********
UPDATE:
Since many folks perceived that I was talking about forking, changes in the core, or sidechaining, I should clarify that I was not. And I am not trying to raise money for anything.
I am referring to various techniques of app development using anchoring (publishing data on blockchain). Probably the most known is OMNI Layer. I came across different techniques of app dev on blockchains (not only Bitcoin) and realized that there are methods and techniques that are worth looking at. So, to mind nothing really limits app development on Bitcoin (including creation of digital assets). Of course, there could better conditions for that. For example, block size or better scripts for publishing data (more data), etc. But look at it from another perspective - Bitcoin as a resource is limited, it should be limited and expensive - it is what it is, and it is what it makes Bitcoin the most secure repository - a digital stronghold. So, I'd work with it. And I’m pretty sure there will others who'd like to enjoy such an infrastructure for their dApps. Combining best practices of app development is the right answer. In a while I’ll elaborate on that in the Tech section of the forum.

[1713535870]

1713535870

[1713535870]

1713535870

[1713535870]

1713535870

[hatshepsut93]

If you take a look at Top 10 on coinmarketcap you will see only Bitcoin and Dogecoin - two pure cryptocurrencies that are left in this list. Others are application platforms.

I don't care about marketcaps, this market is not rational, people don't invest in cryptocoins like they invest in stocks - no one cares if the tech is actually working, if it's a realistic idea or not, all what people want are to see a big pump, dump at the top and move on to the next coin.

If you want to compare coins, look how many real world entities are using them. How many real businesses are using smart contracts and decentralized applications. And I'm not talking about some crypto casinos or NFT games or decentralized exchanges - those all are not real but merely another part of a "bigger crypto fool" game.

[mk4]

I projected bitcoin’s market dominance - and it indicates it is going to lose at least half of its market value within the next 3-5 years. And probably sooner or later  will give ground to Ethereum.

No offense my dude, but when I read this part I don't think I should even continue further. Bitcoin's market dominance is pretty much guaranteed to drop with the release of new cryptocurrencies, and it's not necessarily a bad thing. And don't even get me started with trying to predict market value.

[Dave1]

Hi, when I first heard about Bitcoin it changed my life. I left my [successful] career as a lawyer, I started coding and I went into academia and completed my PhD about blockchain.

I’d like to share my concerns about the future of Bitcoin. About its value, not price. About its purpose and utility. As I was always a true believer of Bitcoin and its open competitive consensus.

I projected bitcoin’s market dominance - and it indicates it is going to lose at least half of its market value within the next 3-5 years. And probably sooner or later  will give ground to Ethereum.

Though the problem is more than that. It has been locked in a paradigm that does not work. It had to become a [global] peer-to-peer electronic cash. The title and abstract of Nakamoto’s paper clearly state these goals.

But who even uses it as cash? I am looking at the number of transactions and I see pure speculation.
When was the last time someone bought anything for bitcoin? (ok, maybe on this forum there are more chances to see these rare people, but ask anyone in your town). It is not money and will not become so in its true meaning.

Ask El Salvadorian on how they uses Bitcoin as cash, or maybe Nigeria or Zimbabwe or Japan, so your argument is flawed in the beginning.

El Salvador make bitcoin legal tender there.

If you take a look at Top 10 on coinmarketcap you will see only Bitcoin and Dogecoin - two pure cryptocurrencies that are left in this list. Others are application platforms.

No offense mate, but Bitcoin and Dogecoin should not be in the same sentence. Dogecoin, is a meme coin for all we know. And coinmarketcap can't be used as a gauge, of course, Bitcoin will remain on top on the list, it's the prime mover and if ever there will be challenges for it at the top, it should happen in the first 10 years as there are crypto like ETH or even XRP that time that is like battling it out with BTC (remember the so called Flippening/Rippening)?

[Sarah Azhari]

Hi, when I first heard about Bitcoin it changed my life. I left my [successful] career as a lawyer, I started coding and I went into academia and completed my PhD about blockchain.

Congrats on your Ph.D., but with your discipline knowledge, you shouldn't doubt about the future, right?
You told bitcoin is perfect. but unperfect when you compared it with a new tech token, dapp or web3 platform. which I think is different thing when combined with currency. IMO, those all clearly cannot be combined, you must fork and make new token.

[Oleksiiko]

If you take a look at Top 10 on coinmarketcap you will see only Bitcoin and Dogecoin - two pure cryptocurrencies that are left in this list. Others are application platforms.

If you want to compare coins, look how many real world entities are using them. How many real businesses are using smart contracts and decentralized applications.

Look, I don't know how deep you understand the potential of blockchain based applications (generally speaking, including smart contracts specifically as a kind of blockchain based app). I spent four years 2016/20 conceptualizing a design of a blockchain based real estate registry. In 2021, I was invited to speak before the 'Fintech' Committee of the Australian Senate, and the results of my study were used as Committee's recommendation to the Federal Cabinet - to launch blockchain land registry pilot (see Sections 5.34 - 5.36, 7.59 of the Committee's Report - Link is here)

My point here is that there are potentially many useful applications of these technologies - I say it as a researcher that spent years working on it. Nowadays, more people understand it.

The threat is in the substitution of concepts. DLT instead of THE blockchain.
When bureaucrats hear this 'disruption' narrative that comes from cryptocommunities they freak out and look into the direction of centralized (permissioned/private) surrogates.

I would never use permissioned DLT for the land registry - how on Earth a cartel DLT should become a better solution then a typical government maintained land registry system? I'd build it on Bitcoin or a bundle of creditable blockchains - Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc. using a cross-blockchain protocol. The problem is that the think that they should control the ledger. And I say, no the should control only their application (on top of the blockchain) while the blockchain should control no one -  And Bitcoin is the best candidate to provide the immutable storage that has never been compromised. 

So that's why I am appealing to the crypto community - it's time to stop 'disruption' narratives and start 'creation' narratives. Application narratives. Cryptocurrency is not money - it is a unit of account in the decentralized infrastructure for dApps.

[Despairo]

I clearly realise that Bitcoin should change its strategy.

Bitcoin still has one fundamental advantage - it is the most secure digital repository that humankind has ever created. This should be leveraged in its transformation into a web3/dapp platform.

You can create your own Bitcoin by using your strategy and different consensus, but it's not a real Bitcoin anymore since it's Bitcoin fork similar like BCH, BSV, etc.

When was the last time someone bought anything for bitcoin? (ok, maybe on this forum there are more chances to see these rare people, but ask anyone in your town). It is not money and will not become so in its true meaning.

People aren't using Bitcoin as a currency because they're not a Bitcoin holders, not want to reveal if they're a Bitcoin holders, or not many merchants are accept Bitcoin as an alternative payment, not to mention there are few countries are still ban Bitcoin.

I believe people will use Bitcoin as a currency when the price is already quite stable in the future when the price hit 1 Million and when Bitcoin is already normal for majority of peoples, just like how people heard someone have a lot cash.

[TravelMug]

If you take a look at Top 10 on coinmarketcap you will see only Bitcoin and Dogecoin - two pure cryptocurrencies that are left in this list. Others are application platforms.

If you want to compare coins, look how many real world entities are using them. How many real businesses are using smart contracts and decentralized applications.

Look, I don't know how deep you understand the potential of blockchain based applications (generally speaking, including smart contracts specifically as a kind of blockchain based app). I spent four years 2016/20 conceptualizing a design of a blockchain based real estate registry. In 2021, I was invited to speak before the 'Fintech' Committee of the Australian Senate, and the results of my study were used as Committee's recommendation to the Federal Cabinet - to launch blockchain land registry pilot (see Sections 5.34 - 5.36, 7.59 of the Committee's Report - Link is here)

My point here is that there are potentially many useful applications of these technologies - I say it as a researcher that spent years working on it. Nowadays, more people understand it.

The threat is in the substitution of concepts. DLT instead of THE blockchain.
When bureaucrats hear this 'disruption' narrative that comes from cryptocommunities they freak out and look into the direction of centralized (permissioned/private) surrogates.

I would never use permissioned DLT for the land registry - how on Earth a cartel DLT should become a better solution then a typical government maintained land registry system? I'd build it on Bitcoin or a bundle of creditable blockchains - Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc. using a cross-blockchain protocol. The problem is that the think that they should control the ledger. And I say, no the should control only their application (on top of the blockchain) while the blockchain should control no one -  And Bitcoin is the best candidate to provide the immutable storage that has never been compromised. 

So that's why I am appealing to the crypto community - it's time to stop 'disruption' narratives and start 'creation' narratives. Application narratives. Cryptocurrency is not money - it is a unit of account in the decentralized infrastructure for dApps.

Maybe if you are talking about the whole crypto, specially altcoins, yeah they could have been projects that has this one as use cases.

But as far as Bitcoin goes, it's narrative much have chance from P2P->money->investment. But still though nothing has change since it's inception and I doubt that we will see any upgrade on the core itself. Maybe other altcoin can fit that description that you are saying.

So if you are looking for many useful applications of blockchain or whatever will be the next wave, altcoin will be the best and not bitcoin, just saying.

[Edwardard]

Hey @OP, glad to see you get a cooper membership right on your first post. Seems like you understood much about the forum from the beginning itself (being a scholar yourself )

I doubt that we will see any upgrade on the core itself.

Correct, satoshi himself said that "the core design of bitcoin is set in stone for the rest of its lifetime since its invention". And this also gives us a satisfaction that it is so strong enough from the beginning that it doesnt require a change till date.

So if you are looking for many useful applications of blockchain or whatever will be the next wave, altcoin will be the best and not bitcoin, just saying.

Yes, altcoin will be the best, but which one out of those tens of thousands of shtcoins? Bitcoin is still the safest bet I'd say for the next 10years.

[hd49728]

Bitcoin has many big falls since 2009 but collapse (if you meant this) like Terra UST & Luna, FTX exchange and FTT token or many altcoins, stable coins, I am sure with you that my answer is true, Bitcoin has never been collapsed.

I can not say about future but with what Bitcoin has had and achieved since 2009, it has been growing very good and my belief is it will continue that path in future. With such belief of mine, I don't think Bitcoin will eventually collapse.

[pooya87]

I projected bitcoin’s market dominance - and it indicates it is going to lose at least half of its market value within the next 3-5 years. And probably sooner or later  will give ground to Ethereum.

There are so many things wrong with this statement
First of all what you are looking at is not "market dominance" at all. It is "market capitalization ratio" where you divide bitcoin's market cap with sum of thousands of shitcoins' market cap.

Secondly market cap and its ratio has nothing to do with value at all. It is a product of price * supply and since shitcoins have huge supplies and there are thousands of them, the ratio is small and shrinking as new shitcoins are created or old shitcoins like ethereum with unlimited supply create more supply.

Finally a useless shitcoin that relies on being pumped such as ethereum is never going to be able to gain a value higher than bitcoin specially with unlimited supply and lack of real world applications. Just look at the charts from 2017 to 2023, this shitcoin has been dumping consistently ever since the ICO mania in 2017 where it reached about 0.15BTC and it is currently worth half of that since it's been dumping!

It had to become a [global] peer-to-peer electronic cash.

Wrong.
Bitcoin didn't "have to" do anything. Bitcoin is A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System just like it was on day one. It is always an "option" for people seeking financial sovereignty and is not supposed to replace anything or dominate the world as a money.

But who even uses it as cash?

Lots and lots of people. Just look at the number of merchants accepting bitcoin as payment, look at the payment processors that help many merchants receive payments, etc.

I am looking at the number of transactions and I see pure speculation.

LOL bitcoin transactions don't have a "purpose" field attach to them for you to see their intention.

When was the last time someone bought anything for bitcoin?

Every second of every day.
You want real world examples? Get out in the world and look around. For example there is a computer hardware shop near me that accepts bitcoin payments and last I asked them they said they receive a decent number of payments in bitcoin.

If you take a look at Top 10 on coinmarketcap you will see only Bitcoin and Dogecoin - two pure cryptocurrencies that are left in this list. Others are application platforms.

If you look at that website's history you see that the market capitalization sorted list is always updated with the new hype trend. For example in early days the hype was innovation and new ideas so we saw coins like Namecoin, Litecoin, etc. on top. Then it was copycat coins that could pump a lot so we saw a wave of them be on top. The most recent hype is token scam so the token platforms are hot and on top until a new hype comes along.

This should be leveraged in its transformation into a web3/dapp platform.

Nonsense. Bitcoin is a currency not a platform.

Unfortunately, this Turing-complete smart contract narrative completely misled people, and apps on Bitcoin-like systems and apps on them are perceived as flawed systems, which is not true.

Throughout years of my academic research I came across a number of techniques of application development on bitcoin-like ledgers. I can say with 100% certainty there is no lack of technologies and techniques of developing well-designed and functional applications on Bitcoin, including token-applications. It is a matter of the community and its leaders - where they want to direct Bitcoin.

Before anything dramatic happens, before irreversible processes begin, I’d put my efforts with other thinkers into Bitcoin’s greater future.

What you think you are doing is not new. Many years ago someone else tried corrupting bitcoin and making it irrelevant like other shitcoins by changing the protocol and introducing flaws into the system. He failed so he went on to creating his own shitcoin called ethereum that is known to be the ultimate scam, a platform for creating useless tokens that have only managed to attract scammers and gamblers and has been dying as the fever wears off.

[jokers10]

...
Throughout years of my academic research I came across a number of techniques of application development on bitcoin-like ledgers. I can say with 100% certainty there is no lack of technologies and techniques of developing well-designed and functional applications on Bitcoin, including token-applications. It is a matter of the community and its leaders - where they want to direct Bitcoin.
...

Trying to pretend something different can lead to defeat. It is good that there are different options in crypto and if some of them will survive and develop then Nakamoto's work gave viable sprouts and it is good. Trying to compete with Ethereum or other tokenizable nets will hardly make bitcoin more competitive, it will make it the same like others. Being particular gives bitcoin his own reputation. Right, it should develop in some direction, but definitely not in direction on copying fancy tools.

[Charles-Tim]

I projected bitcoin’s market dominance - and it indicates it is going to lose at least half of its market value within the next 3-5 years. And probably sooner or later  will give ground to Ethereum.

Mr speculator, you are wrong. Also know that bitcoin is not here to compete with any altcoin. But indicating that bitcoin will lose half of its marketcap when its market cap went down from over $1 trillion to $464 billion now confirms how wrong you are. Be expecting bitcoin marketcap at $1 trillion again before the next 3 to 5 years.

You need to know that bitcoin is the true decentralized form of digital currencies.

But who even uses it as cash? I am looking at the number of transactions and I see pure speculation.
When was the last time someone bought anything for bitcoin? (ok, maybe on this forum there are more chances to see these rare people, but ask anyone in your town). It is not money and will not become so in its true meaning.

I hate people not to know anything but coming up to take attention of people and posting rubbish because if the little he knows. Where did you see it that bitcoin is cash? Bitcoin is digitally created. Another of wrong in your post is that bitcoin is not money, who told you so? What is money? You will need to learn what money is to begin to know that bitcoin is money.

If you take a look at Top 10 on coinmarketcap you will see only Bitcoin and Dogecoin - two pure cryptocurrencies that are left in this list. Others are application platforms.

But bitcoin still remain the dominant among them all.

[franky1]

firstly OP calls himself a scholar.
this does not mean he is wise, old and well experienced. it means he is young and still learning
but is/recently was in some higher end educational system, where his life experience is mostly just that educational system

but lets delve into a few thoughts of the OP

1. value vs values
the singular is a economic number. the plural is a sentiment of desire, need, and utility/benefit

2. value(economic number)
value is not the market price. value sits below the market price. its the most efficient acquisition COST on the planet of bitcoin (lets call it the wholesale amount)
there are real costs to mine blocks. around the world these costs vary because different countries charge different costs for electric.
using the rational costs of the main countries that are mining at industrial(large asic farms) rate you can work out a base cost(value) of the most efficient mining cost AND also the inefficient residential(hobby) rate of the most inefficient expensive cost(premium) on the planet

the retail(market) moves within this value-premium zone
because no one wants to sell at a loss and no one wants to buy higher then the most innefficient cost

3. the 2024 halving
value($15k) premium($95k) (rates of q4 2022) .. will and does increase over time (hashrate increasing) the market will go up over time
when the btc reward per block halves this actually makes the work(hashrate) cost per btc double

yep its like if 2022 you can make 10 loaves of bread per hour. and min wage is $10 per hour means $1 a loaves labour cost
if in 2024 you can only make 5 loaves an hour. but labour cost rose to $12. then that is $2.40 a loaf labour cost a 2.4x increase

no one wants to sell bread/btc below costs meaning the wholesale rate will go UP by more then double which will affect the zone the market/retail rate moves within. thus giving more pressure/incentive for the market rate to go up

4. unless hashrate tumbles down to extremely lower amounts or hashrate stays at a certain level and asics get more efficient/cheaper to run by more then 2x. all signs are showing the value/cost rate will be higher in 2024 not lower due to the halving 2x factor of production vs cost

enjoy understanding those basic economic lessons of bitcoin. and take the time to understand and run scenarios based on that.

..
comparing that to ethereum
when ethereum was PoW it had a base value/cost of $850-$10k which is why the markets played inside that window (market played at 1k-$5k inside the value-premium window)

however now its PoS that cost/value went down to $40value-$480premium.
due to a few economic and technical reasons ethereum being staked got locked into staking and not released to be sold off. so the market correction to a lower market rate within that new lower window has not happened yet due to that lock. which caused the market to artificially stay at a now high speculative bubble amount .. but it will correct down

ethereum if you check the market rate is not doing its own "price discovery" inside the window. instead its stuck at a ~1:14 rate of btc where its just blindly following btc price movements due to the economics of btc arbitraging.

yep btc is holding ethereum up due to lack of ethereums own userbase involvement of ethereum users making their own orders to correct away from this
but,, it will happen once staking can be unlocked

in short expect ethereum to correct down. whilst bitcoins market goes up due to higher base costs of acquiring bitcoin

enjoy

[pooya87]

firstly OP calls himself a scholar.
this does not mean he is wise, old and well experienced. it means he is young and still learning
but is/recently was in some higher end educational system, where his life experience is mostly just that educational system

This shows the flaws in the educational system and the "wrong knowledge" that people sometimes learn exiting that system. For example OP is so wrong that he is referring to the most centralized shitcoin with a massive premine, serious flaws in the protocol and worse of all a mutable blockchain a "creditable blockchain".

If someone with a "PhD in blockchain" has so little knowledge and is this misled, what can we expect from regular people with no background in the field who hand over their money to the very shitcoins that OP thinks are "credible" just because they were pumped by these newbies.

[NotATether]

So that's why I am appealing to the crypto community - it's time to stop 'disruption' narratives and start 'creation' narratives. Application narratives. Cryptocurrency is not money - it is a unit of account in the decentralized infrastructure for dApps.

Why not both then?

Sure it's disrupting stuff, but it's rubbing off on people in he wrong way. Instead of using it as money they are using it as a sort of investment vehicle.

I don't know if any non-stablecoin crypto that has had a relatively steady price similar to currencies.

[kelechi]

I think you can't be sure in anything in such financial things. But I hope and I analyze everything and look for benefits

[Doan9269]

I’d like to share my concerns about the future of Bitcoin. About its value, not price. About its purpose and utility. As I was always a true believer of Bitcoin and its open competitive consensus.

We are actually tired of everyone coming with different approach and perception they feels about bitcoin in other to stop misleading others on what bitcoin represent, just as you've said on your statement here, of you truly believe in the consensus protocol and how the blockchain work together in achieving this.

I projected bitcoin’s market dominance - and it indicates it is going to lose at least half of its market value within the next 3-5 years. And probably sooner or later  will give ground to Ethereum.

How will you be making comparison between bitcoin and altcoins, they all have different protocols they follows even though they both fall under cryptocurrencies, bitcoin price can not be traded for other alts not to talk of it value, you know this when bitcoin rises they also follow and when it drops, they also fell drastically.

[Lucius]

~snip~
So that's why I am appealing to the crypto community - it's time to stop 'disruption' narratives and start 'creation' narratives. Application narratives. Cryptocurrency is not money - it is a unit of account in the decentralized infrastructure for dApps.

In other words, you want Bitcoin to become something that would suit you the most, and that would be some kind of endless creation of applications and tokens on which people like you would profit  - unless you left a lucrative job as a lawyer to become some new Satoshi or rather correct (according to you) his idea of Bitcoin as a currency?

If you think that your idea makes sense and that you will save Bitcoin, you have the option, like many others, to make a fork and convince people to follow you.

Look, I don't know how deep you understand the potential of blockchain based applications (generally speaking, including smart contracts specifically as a kind of blockchain based app). I spent four years 2016/20 conceptualizing a design of a blockchain based real estate registry. In 2021, I was invited to speak before the 'Fintech' Committee of the Australian Senate

You Australians really have strange intentions when it comes to Bitcoin, I mean considering a so-called doctor from that same country claims to be Satoshi - are you perhaps in some kind of family or business relationship?

[pixie85]

Cryptocurrency is not money - it is a unit of account in the decentralized infrastructure for dApps.

That's a pretty bold statement since money is a unit of exchange. It doesn't have to be globally accepted to be money. You can use an example of prison money where they use cigarettes and packs of instant noodles as money.

Bitcoin is money because it can be used to buy numerous things online. You can find a long list of stores that accept it. Over the years I used bitcoin to buy a lot of things. Not as many as I bought with fiat money but I'm trying to save my bitcoin and spend fiat.

Bitcoin isn't only for speculation. I'm a type of saver by nature and when there was no bitcoin I used to save foreign currencies in cash, jewelry, silver coins. Bitcoin is superior to all of these.