Here's what really worries me in this case:
if earlier everything conditionally rested on "tax" issues, today it is a violation of the rules of the game in the global financial market, a violation of obligations to the United States, and sponsorship in essence of terrorism. Such a package of accusations can create real difficulties for binance, whose weight in the crypto market is very large. For example, the consequence of the development of the problem may be, let's say - sanctions on the BNB protocol, and the entire BNB network - simply the SEC will prohibit official exchanges from supporting transactions in this network under threat of punishment. This will obviously have a very negative impact on Binance and the crypto market as a whole.
If it's only about taxes, permits and other issues, it's likely that it can still be discussed by paying for some violations that might have been committed because I only heard that this was just an allegation so the problem hasn't been fixed or I haven't received confirmation of the continuation of the problem, something makes me quite surprised that Binance sponsoring the Russian army? Until today I haven't heard or confirmed anything about this donation, this kind of thing is quite dangerous for the reputation and trust of users according to me.
Yes, it will get worse if you don't find a good settlement agreement and it's stated that Binance did it. Because we are aware that Binance has become a top crypto exchange icon that has a big influence on the market. Which when the network is banned as a whole we will experience another crash.
Judging by the primary information I was able to collect - the question is not "petty financial pranks."
The first problem is access to the Binance exchange for US citizens. As far as I understand it is taboo. BUT Binance, through offshore and other mechanisms, allows US citizens to conduct transactions on the exchange. At the same time, after the US financial authority turned to Binance with a demand to prohibit direct or "indirect" access of US citizens to this exchange, Binance management said "yes sir, there are sir, more US citizens or persons affiliated with it and other schemes involving citizens of the United States will be closed", this is all in exchange for the US not applying tough measures to Binance. The United States believed in binance and did not introduce any mechanisms for "pressing" the exchange. But as it turned out in 2023, Binance deceived them, and deceived them not in isolated cases, but rather massively. And such things are not forgiven.
The second real problem is the provision of mechanisms for financing the terroristic war unleashed by Russia. I think the question here is not about "donations" to specific terrorists from the Wagner PMC or regular units of the RF Armed Forces, but about money laundering mechanisms and avoiding sanctions, using cryptocurrency and the Binance platform. This is also a very serious accusation. And then just fines and a "peace treaty" are no longer enough.
The question is how tough the US reaction will be, and I do not rule out the EU.
