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Author Topic: You guys don't get it - Bitcoin will act like a Ponzi scheme until Dec 2012  (Read 4957 times)
Elwar
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December 15, 2011, 03:02:10 PM
 #41

They could find 50 million barrels of oil tomorrow and the oil price would go down. Even with not one drop of oil drilled for years.

So, knowing that Bitcoin will stabilize a year from now should stabilize it now.

You always hear things about how the "speculators" are ruining gas prices because they drive the prices up. But you do not hear about how speculators are terrible when a new oil field is discovered and the price of gas goes down. That is how speculation works. You look at how things are going to be in the future and you fix the price to that predicted value.

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fastandfurious
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December 18, 2011, 06:34:12 PM
 #42

Bitcoin is (very) volatile in it self, so this is just to funny, and it is one more thing that shows that this market is in some way manipulated.

Lets see how many more days they can keep the price this stable.
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December 18, 2011, 07:53:53 PM
 #43

Bitcoin is (very) volatile in it self, so this is just to funny, and it is one more thing that shows that this market is in some way manipulated.

Lets see how many more days they can keep the price this stable.

I don't see any inherent reason that bitcoins should be so volatile. Until recently, the price was very volatile, but what has happened is that rather than one person dropping the price one day by selling and another person spiking the price the next by buying, there are now more speculators, or the ones there just have more money at their disposal, and so the person selling bunches today gives to the speculators, and the person buying bunches tomorrow takes from the speculators and the price remains pretty stable.

You are making the wrong assumption, this market is manipulated. This is how I see it, the price should be higher than 3.50 USD right now if everything was played as it normally is if you look at the order depth and knowing that it is very hard to get under 3 USD right now. Someone is building up this manipulation, I think they have bought a lot of bitcoins, they really don't want the price to go down, but at the same time they understand fundamentals so they are selling at 3.20 USD and over, by doing this and have a lot of buy order in the market, they are forcing this fake or manipulated stable behavior. At the same time they don't lose that much UDS or BTC, so they are playing the game of manipulating well (right now). The only way they can lose is if someone will sell massively in to this (fake) bid walls, then they will panic as always and the inflation and panic after that will make it worse. The thing is that we are at 3 USD and the downside is not that big. I think they have by doing this fundamentally put BTC around 1 dollar higher than it should be, but it is at a cost and right now we are printing 2,6 million BTC more until Dec 2012, so they will  probably lose (again) in the end. Time is on the downside.
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December 19, 2011, 07:33:00 AM
 #44

Do you guys believe me now? Smiley

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December 19, 2011, 08:07:16 AM
 #45

Do you guys believe me now? Smiley



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December 19, 2011, 08:11:33 AM
 #46

Do you guys believe me now? Smiley

I may believe you once you state your proposition with some degree of formalism.  But "OMG it's a Ponzi!!!" doesn't really convey anything besides scam, which Bitcoin clearly is not.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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fastandfurious
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December 19, 2011, 08:14:13 AM
 #47

Read what I wrote in the first post. I have never said that Bitcoin is a ponzi.
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December 19, 2011, 08:40:56 AM
 #48

Read what I wrote in the first post. I have never said that Bitcoin is a ponzi.

No, you just said "it will act as if it was a ponzi scheme". I love playing these semantic games.
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December 19, 2011, 08:48:59 AM
 #49

Read what I wrote in the first post. I have never said that Bitcoin is a ponzi.

I've read every post in this thread thanks.  What are you trying to say exactly?  If you can't get your thesis out in less than three sentences it's too complicated for anyone to follow.  Let me take a stab at it:

Because of the ~7200 BTC per day being generated, as the price rises we will see resistance to new growth due to the rising value of the daily-generated BTC.

It that's it, than yes, you are right.  The exact effect is debatable, but I claim the above statement is true.  If you would like to refine or extend that statement I will gladly let you know how I feel about your modifications.  Or, throw it out and start over, but keep it to the point.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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