US Debt Default: Good or bad for crypto?

[disconnectme]

First of all, there won't be any US Debt Default, what we are seen is lobby power at play, the republicans know this, if the US defaults on its debt, Biden will push it as their fault and since they want to win the Whitehouse back they won't let this happens. However if this happens it would be bad for Crypto, US Dollar plays a major role in this space and there would be panic all over the world and Crypto assets won't be spared, I believe it would be one of the best days to buy Crypto in the history because the volatility would be huge, remember the Covid 19 panic. Just look at countries of the world that have defaulted on their Debt and how their economy have suffered after.

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[adaseb]

Looks like they reached an agreement. They are extending the limit for another 2 years and some budget caps for 2 years. They also saved $50B somehow which is a joke since they are trillions in debt. This is proof that this debt will one day spiral out of control.

Bitcoin spiked on the news which is odd since we expected the opposite to happen. US would default and everybody would flock to Bitcoin as a hedge. But instead it rallied when the debt limit was raised.

[siniminomorocomunisakito]

Looks like they reached an agreement. They are extending the limit for another 2 years and some budget caps for 2 years. They also saved $50B somehow which is a joke since they are trillions in debt. This is proof that this debt will one day spiral out of control.

Bitcoin spiked on the news which is odd since we expected the opposite to happen. US would default and everybody would flock to Bitcoin as a hedge. But instead it rallied when the debt limit was raised.

Pleased to hear it. Yes maybe this incident will open everyone's eyes that the technology adopted by BTC will also be useful in terms of mitigating this US Debt Default. if you look at it, it's complicated to win and it will have a huge impact if you take the wrong decision, because a lot of people's fate is at stake and other related elements.

[S A KHAIR]

Looks like they reached an agreement. They are extending the limit for another 2 years and some budget caps for 2 years. They also saved $50B somehow which is a joke since they are trillions in debt. This is proof that this debt will one day spiral out of control.

Bitcoin spiked on the news which is odd since we expected the opposite to happen. US would default and everybody would flock to Bitcoin as a hedge. But instead it rallied when the debt limit was raised.

Pleased to hear it. Yes maybe this incident will open everyone's eyes that the technology adopted by BTC will also be useful in terms of mitigating this US Debt Default. if you look at it, it's complicated to win and it will have a huge impact if you take the wrong decision, because a lot of people's fate is at stake and other related elements.

It's no fun when we all know the outcome from the moment we discuss this issue. The US government will never let that happen, what many people fear is just an unfounded fear in their minds. If people take the time to review history, this play was performed by the US government many years ago, and the outcome of that play has never changed.

[DrBeer]

I am not sure that any problems with the US domestic debt (under any scenario) will positively affect bitcoin. The problem is that cryptocurrencies have recently lost their mega investment attractiveness for the masses, plus, it turned out that the crypt is not a "safe haven" where you can survive the "financial storm" and not lose your savings.
  What is highly likely to rise in price is gold.

If you believe in bitcoin's deflationary nature, then a US government default will have a positive impact on bitcoin. Because people will quickly look to other safe havens like metals and deflationary assets, and bitcoin will likely be of interest as well.

I don't see any news or evidence that crypto is losing traction, it's still getting a lot of attention from the community, it's just that during the bear season, you won't see much positive news.
Given bitcoin's volatility, it's more suited to be a speculative asset than a purely safe haven, but if the US government defaults and the world economy falls into chaos, then it will become a safe haven.

Everything is fine in your idea, except for the incorrect assumption about the "stability of bitcoin", and the use of its safe "haven" in order to ride out the storm of the global economy.
Gold in such a situation is indeed an option, it is absolutely liquid. But the crypt, given its zero real value (absolutely speculative asset), its volatility that can kill your money faster than inflation, and the lack of normal legislative regulation - these are all problems that do not make the crypt a "safe haven".
But even within the framework of the topic - I honestly do not remember any very noticeable movements in the financial market, with the previous problems of the United States with its debt.
Moreover, I am absolutely sure that this is not a problem for the USA, and it will be solved, as always, because there is no problem as such

[Synchronice]

But for discussion if I consider that will default on their debt, it will be an excellent thing for crypto market. Billions of dollars will be infused into the crypto market from various institutional investors to park their additional funds. Similarly Gold and other precious metals will also see a huge demand.

Oh yeah, just how
- war will be good for Bitcoin thousands will try to hide their wealth in Bitcoin
- inflation will be good for bitcoin, billions will try to protect their wealth with Bitcoin
That worked out perfectly, let's continue:
- unemployment will be great for Bitcoin, unemployed people will put their empty wallets in Bitcoin
- bankrupcies will be good for BTC, companies that don't produce a thing will put their income in BTCBTC
- Ebola will be great for Bitcoin, everyone that is not dead will put his money into Bitcoin

This reminds me of the stories about Cyprus, the banks closed and everyone was cheering how people were buying coins, must have been a miracle to have your funds locked in a bank but use them to buy BTC. If the US would somehow default for 99% of this planet BTC will be the last thing to think about.

99% of people who post that kind of shit just do it to look like a pro-crypto and don't actually think what they write, it's just a copy/paste of meaningless combination of some words. If the US goes bankrupt, bitcoin is the least thing people will think about.
The whole world economy depends on US dollar and on fiat, overall. If the US defaults, the whole world will be in chaos because the world will have to function without a currency for a while, people who hold USD in their pocket, will discover that they have only papers. That will be a terrible experience, it will be a terrible global experience.
I can't imagine how people think that bitcoin will save them in those hard times, will they be able to buy things in shop? Will they be able to make trades between countries via it? The vast majority doesn't know a thing about bitcoin and even more doesn't know how to properly store it.

[Abiky]

Debt default is drawing closer and if there is no raising of debt ceiling yet from both parties, then both have two different decisions. A chaotic market ahead.

Bitcoin is now political. News flows by where DeSantis and RFK is into Bitcoin and have BTC to be their tool to in election. BTC is linked to popularity already and a presidential candidate who protcts BTC might win the BItcoiners.

It seems the US will be raising the debt limit again. But they can't keep doing this forever. At some point, the US will default and chaos will spread all around the world. Bitcoin will ultimately prevail because of its deflationary and decentralized nature. Some US politicians have recognized BTC's potential to change our world for the better. The cryptocurrency's popularity is too hard to ignore these days. We could say politicians that are against BTC will see their demise after Election Day. Only time will tell us whenever the US will fully embrace the revolution or be left behind in the dust.

I'd be surprised if the country backs its currency (USD) with BTC sometime in the future. It would solve many problems in the long run. Either way, I'm certain a US default would have a positive effect over crypto market prices in the future. Short-term speaking, prices will decline because markets are tied to the USD. We should take the opportunity to grab as much coins as we can at a discount. Who knows if people will end up ditching Fiat currencies for good? Just my opinion

[Faisal2202]

There are talks among US politicians and economists about the country defaulting on its national debt. Congress usually approves raising the debt ceiling, so I don't see what's the issue here. But if somehow the US defaults, how would the crypto market react? Positively or negatively? The USD is the reserve currency of the world, so it's likely everything (stocks, crypto, etc) will crash alongside it.

What do you think? Is a US default good or bad for crypto in the short term? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Well, first thing first, i do not see any default coming to the US because they have a hell lot of money and assets and also Wealthy Patriots who can single-handedly deal with the debt problem currently the USA is facing. Now secondly, if we assume that those patriots are also out of money and US political leaders have no backup plan to deal with this situation which in reality they must have. There will be bad consequences for BTC and for the whole stock market too. Because the US is the main currency for all of the stablecoins and we have seen it recently what effect does their downtrend make on BTC? When the Silicon Valley Bank was bankrupted the value of Stable Coin USDC become more volatile which highly affected the market.

Secondly, the good side of it was, the dominance of BTC was increasing because people need some place to hold their money where it can not lose its value. So, BTC is that place. It also was the main reason for the origin of BTC so that in the next banking crisis (financial Crisis) people have at least something to store their money to keep its value safe. And BTC will be used as one.

[panganib999]

Looks like they reached an agreement. They are extending the limit for another 2 years and some budget caps for 2 years. They also saved $50B somehow which is a joke since they are trillions in debt. This is proof that this debt will one day spiral out of control.

Bitcoin spiked on the news which is odd since we expected the opposite to happen. US would default and everybody would flock to Bitcoin as a hedge. But instead it rallied when the debt limit was raised.

Awesome news. Still, this is merely putting a band-aid resolution over a problem that is already decades due. If the US doesn't do something smart in that 2 year-span things will definitely spiral out of control as you said and well, once the dam is broken a cascade of problems, courtesy of the recession will definitely come forth. In any case, I guess it's just enough to celebrate lmao. We're not out of the clear yet but at least we're not due for suffering.

As for bitcoin, it's really hard to pinpoint what's up with it, it came to a point where I stopped correlating current events and news with the price of bitcoin cause for me, it's gonna rise if it wants to rise and it will fall if it wants to dump in value.

[hatshepsut93]

Bitcoin spiked on the news which is odd since we expected the opposite to happen. US would default and everybody would flock to Bitcoin as a hedge. But instead it rallied when the debt limit was raised.

It's not odd, in the last few years there has been a lot of correlation with the US economy and stock market. Bitcoin is now a mainstream high risk investment, it's not a hedge, it's a way to make quick profit when the economy is doing well. And when it's not well, investors dump Bitcoin for cash or gold.

I think this "odd" price action demonstrates that the market is dominated by traders rather than Bitcoin maximalists who believe in it being digital gold.

[darewaller]

This is one of the worst aspects of the matter, the correlation of the global economy, stocks, banks and even cryptocurrencies with the dollar is the worst of the matter, the collapse of the dollar will lead to the collapse of all of these. This is the main reason why Satoshi strived to invent Bitcoin to decouple the global economy from the dollar.

Defaulting on debt will certainly have a negative impact on cryptocurrencies in the short term, but in the long term I expect its impact to be positive because everyone will seek to convert their savings into bitcoins before their value collapses permanently, and this will push the price of bitcoin up.

Satoshi invent Bitcoin for the people to have a decentralized currency and not necessarily for the dollar so even if the dollar falls, Bitcoin will still be there and it will be a good thing for it in fact. The more the wish of the people to become Bitcoin to be a global currency will come true.

If there are the ones that will badly suffer, that would be the banks and others that you mentioned but there are still other currency left out there. They can still move on this and sooner or later they will soon recover. Defaulting a loan is going to be a bad thing for the US dollar itself and this can be the reason for its collapse but I don't think the US banks will let it happen. They will surely find a way to pay those debts.

[Abiky]

Well, first thing first, i do not see any default coming to the US because they have a hell lot of money and assets and also Wealthy Patriots who can single-handedly deal with the debt problem currently the USA is facing. Now secondly, if we assume that those patriots are also out of money and US political leaders have no backup plan to deal with this situation which in reality they must have. There will be bad consequences for BTC and for the whole stock market too. Because the US is the main currency for all of the stablecoins and we have seen it recently what effect does their downtrend make on BTC? When the Silicon Valley Bank was bankrupted the value of Stable Coin USDC become more volatile which highly affected the market.

Secondly, the good side of it was, the dominance of BTC was increasing because people need some place to hold their money where it can not lose its value. So, BTC is that place. It also was the main reason for the origin of BTC so that in the next banking crisis (financial Crisis) people have at least something to store their money to keep its value safe. And BTC will be used as one.

Congress already made a deal to raise the debt ceiling, so we should have nothing to worry about (for now). One way or another, the US will be unable to pay its obligations due to the ever-increasing national debt. I'm pretty sure the FED will print more money (inflation) to "magically" sustain the American economy. People are beginning to lose faith in the corrupt banking system, so it should only be a matter of time before Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rise all the way to Mars.

Of course, a debt default will crash crypto market prices all the way down to "rock bottom". But the effects will be temporary due to the declining value of the USD. BTC was made to battle inflation, so I'd suggest you keep on "hodling" no matter what. Who knows if you'll strike it rich someday? Just my thoughts

[Argoo]

Congress already made a deal to raise the debt ceiling, so we should have nothing to worry about (for now). One way or another, the US will be unable to pay its obligations due to the ever-increasing national debt. I'm pretty sure the FED will print more money (inflation) to "magically" sustain the American economy. People are beginning to lose faith in the corrupt banking system, so it should only be a matter of time before Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rise all the way to Mars.

The United States is quite wise to print extra cash so that it has little effect on increasing the rate of inflation in their country. They exchange the printed money supply for necessary goods in other countries and make sure that in the future large consignments of cash do not return back to their country. As long as the dollar is the universally recognized reserve currency of the world, it will not be afraid of default.

[Unbunplease]

The United States is quite wise to print extra cash so that it has little effect on increasing the rate of inflation in their country. They exchange the printed money supply for necessary goods in other countries and make sure that in the future large consignments of cash do not return back to their country. As long as the dollar is the universally recognized reserve currency of the world, it will not be afraid of default.

I think it is very difficult to keep track of the excess money supply so that it does not flow back into the country. In order to do that, everyone has to become pathologically honest, which in the current reality is almost impossible. And for cryptocurrency, printing more money is a good thing. For where else to invest the excess money supply?                     

[Abiky]

The United States is quite wise to print extra cash so that it has little effect on increasing the rate of inflation in their country. They exchange the printed money supply for necessary goods in other countries and make sure that in the future large consignments of cash do not return back to their country. As long as the dollar is the universally recognized reserve currency of the world, it will not be afraid of default.

That is true. But many countries are beginning to move away from the USD. Venezuela, China, Russia, Iran, and many others already began the de-dollarization process. If the list of countries abandoning the USD keeps growing, then it will be game over for the US for good. I fail to see how the country will be able to survive after this happens.

If the FED keeps printing money, inflation will rise and crypto (especially BTC) will go all the way to the moon. This is inevitable, especially when the US finds itself unable to pay its debt. They can raise the ceiling all they want, but that doesn't mean the debt will vanish for good. Who knows if we're close to seeing crypto replace Fiat currencies as the standard unit of account? Just my opinion

[Hispo]

The United States is quite wise to print extra cash so that it has little effect on increasing the rate of inflation in their country. They exchange the printed money supply for necessary goods in other countries and make sure that in the future large consignments of cash do not return back to their country. As long as the dollar is the universally recognized reserve currency of the world, it will not be afraid of default.

That is true. But many countries are beginning to move away from the USD. Venezuela, China, Russia, Iran, and many others already began the de-dollarization process. If the list of countries abandoning the USD keeps growing, then it will be game over for the US for good. I fail to see how the country will be able to survive after this happens.

If the FED keeps printing money, inflation will rise and crypto (especially BTC) will go all the way to the moon. This is inevitable, especially when the US finds itself unable to pay its debt. They can raise the ceiling all they want, but that doesn't mean the debt will vanish for good. Who knows if we're close to seeing crypto replace Fiat currencies as the standard unit of account? Just my opinion

I am from Venezuela and I can assure you that the USD here is more recognized and stronger than ever... It has reached to a point where it has been replacing our local currencies these lastest years. Nowadays it is common for people to handle USD in cash and there have been banks which offer accounts in that currency. People have turned to Bitcoin, but mostly also stable coins pegged to the dollar.

I have not seen a single Yuan bill being used in a transaction in my life, and yet even though the USA is mostly hostile to us, we have embraced their money, so you can rule out Venezuela for now (and in the mid term) when talking about de-dollarization.

[Call_Me_Guru]

The US debt ceiling can not be good or bad for crypto, things will be the way they have been when times are there when bitcoin will get favoured and times will be there when it will lose value due to some adjustment in the USD value. The US money is not the only currency and asset that bitcoin is countering and this is what I know for many other valuable materials, they will get to have their time and the time they will be falling. The selling of bitcoin as of today when the US is facing the default threat  can should affirm to you that the bitcoin can not always have the advantage and the USD can not always have the advantage, the two will have their time, good or bad.

[slapper]

Debt default is drawing closer and if there is no raising of debt ceiling yet from both parties, then both have two different decisions. A chaotic market ahead.

Bitcoin is now political. News flows by where DeSantis and RFK is into Bitcoin and have BTC to be their tool to in election. BTC is linked to popularity already and a presidential candidate who protcts BTC might win the BItcoiners.

It seems the US will be raising the debt limit again. But they can't keep doing this forever. At some point, the US will default and chaos will spread all around the world. Bitcoin will ultimately prevail because of its deflationary and decentralized nature. Some US politicians have recognized BTC's potential to change our world for the better. The cryptocurrency's popularity is too hard to ignore these days. We could say politicians that are against BTC will see their demise after Election Day. Only time will tell us whenever the US will fully embrace the revolution or be left behind in the dust.

I'd be surprised if the country backs its currency (USD) with BTC sometime in the future. It would solve many problems in the long run. Either way, I'm certain a US default would have a positive effect over crypto market prices in the future. Short-term speaking, prices will decline because markets are tied to the USD. We should take the opportunity to grab as much coins as we can at a discount. Who knows if people will end up ditching Fiat currencies for good? Just my opinion

Now that you've got some spice in your thoughts, let's take a break. If the United States were to stop paying its debts, however, the repercussions would be felt around the world like an earthquake. Would Bitcoin, however, emerge from the ashes like the mythical bird? Any guesses are welcome.

Bitcoin, in its decentralised and deflationary form, is a bit of a wild stallion: untamed, unpredictable, and lacking in any real support of a tangible object. It may not be the safe haven that people expect it to be in the event of a financial crisis. Though some political insiders have begun to warm up to the 'Bit,' this term is far from being a conversation starter with the electorate as a whole. Promoting a Bitcoin-based election approach could be like selling a sci-fi film to a romance audience.

As for ditching the greenback in favour of Bitcoin, what are your thoughts now? It's an idea, but it's like attempting to unravel a Gordian knot. Connecting the dollar to the BTC might be like tethering the economy to a bungee cord, resulting in wild swings and a healthy dose of adrenaline. And don't forget, there are still some kinks to work out in the crypto sector, as it's very new.

[woez]

I guess Just as Bitcoin can gain in value at any given time, it can also fluctuate or decline. The current sell-off of Bitcoin amid the threat of a US default serves as a reminder that both Bitcoin and the USD can have their gains or losses and it is true that there is a dynamic between the two that will fluctuate over time, and the interaction is not always one-sided.

[Abiky]

I am from Venezuela and I can assure you that the USD here is more recognized and stronger than ever... It has reached to a point where it has been replacing our local currencies these lastest years. Nowadays it is common for people to handle USD in cash and there have been banks which offer accounts in that currency. People have turned to Bitcoin, but mostly also stable coins pegged to the dollar.

I have not seen a single Yuan bill being used in a transaction in my life, and yet even though the USA is mostly hostile to us, we have embraced their money, so you can rule out Venezuela for now (and in the mid term) when talking about de-dollarization.

It's difficult to move away from the USD. The currency is still a "force to reckon with". Even though some countries expressed their intentions to move away from the USD, they haven't been able to achieve it yet. It's likely the USD will stay with us for a few decades from now. Nothing lasts forever, so we should expect another currency to replace the USD in the future. Once the US is no longer the leading force of the global economy, it'll be game over for good. I think that would mark the end of the US as a superpower.

As far as crypto is concerned, I think it will continue to increase in price for years on end. A US downfall would certainly boost crypto markets all the way to the moon. But I doubt BTC or any other crypto will become the world's reserve currency because of their decentralized nature. Governments simply won't allow this to happen. Who knows what the future holds for our society? Just my thoughts