[POLL] Should the Fed stop raising interest rates?

[EarnOnVictor]

I voted for a stoppage of the rake hike, they've done well already with the manner in which they were aggressive with it last year. This is a very good measure as a result of the threatening inflation. However, this time that inflation is subsiding, it's a good act to stop it or slow it down to the lowest pace.

I'm not really sure if US inflation is subsiding, it might be that the numbers is not really updated as there are a lot of financial issues. So it's a surprised that they paused it right now. But I doubt it, maybe next month there will be another increase. Perhaps they are just observing as to what effect the pause will be for this month.

But then again, as I have said, the economy still look very bleak, so this might not be a effective measures.

And even with this news, it hasn't had that much effect on crypto market.

Forward metrics are showing things like a negative money supply and deflation. The Fed is causing a recession and if they raise rates at all from here it will be a worse one than is already coming.

I totally disagree with you, if there is a country that is more than qualified in economic handling, then the US is number 1. There is no way they will not consider the past metrics and also forecast the future possibilities before they decide, that is certainly not possible. They have all the data and statistics beyond what is presented to you, and with my little knowledge of economics, they are doing exactly what they should.

These measures are obviously the same as the measures that the first-world countries are using to tackle the situation, the inflation is global. And if it's global, then why are you now saying FED is driving the economy into recession when they are doing exactly what they should do to tackle it?

Even though the recession was just over-echoed, the US economy is far from it, I hope they do not default which is not the fault of the FED even if they do. Also, based on the last month's data that was released this week, shows that the US economy is improving, the unemployment, retail sales, manufacturing index, inflation and others were either released as positive for the US or neutral. This is a good development orchestrated by the efforts of FED and the economy needs time to heal.

[Unbunplease]

A pause is necessary. And changing the interest rate will not solve all problems. Of course, the interest rate is a convenient tool for manipulation, and the Fed takes advantage of it. Price fluctuations during the Fed meeting allow to make good money at the moment of sharp movements up and down

[philipma1957]

I have asked about this a few times.

Longterm care insurance policies are paid by private people.

They will die with 0-2% rates.

So every 5-10 years the feds jack rates to bail them out.

there are trillions in bonds as long term care must do ladder buys of bonds to survive.

We are getting 2 more rate raises this year.

July 25 + Sept 19 are likely +0.25%

October 31 we pause or drop

December 12 we drop

BTC has a strong fall move above 35k maybe above 40k. and we stay there for months until the ½ ing in 2024.

Pretty you can make bank on this.


Or I am tripping and why would you believe me.

[pooya87]

You are asking the wrong question. The real question is "can" they stop raising the interest rates?

The answer is too complicated because the choices are all bad. If they stop raising the interest rate, the inflation will start climbing up faster, specially since the oil rich countries are keeping the price up for that exact reason (like the recent production cut by the US cash cow Saudi Arabia!). High energy price will keep the inflation high in US without high interest rates.
On top of that we also have dedollarisation that is sending all the trillions of dollars of unbacked printed dollars back to America and their resulting inflation. In other words if they stop increasing the rates, we'll start seeing what printing fiat really does to the value of it. And dedollarisation is just getting started and is currently on a small scale but it is growing...

On the other hand if they keep the interests high and increase it more, the recession will grow and ruin the economy slowly but surely. Not to mention that it will destroy "production" as it would cease to be profitable to produce anything in US.
The other bigger problem which is showing itself in the long run, is the defaults that will increase over time as people won't be able to afford to pay their debt. This could lead to more banks collapsing too.

The only way forward for US is to find a way to bring the oil price down to somewhere around $30 which is impossible without stopping the war with Russia (and a bunch of other things). Even the release of the US strategic reserves (which are at the lowest at this point and will take years to refill) couldn't help bring it down that low and this year US won't have the same reserves to release and bring the price down as we get close to winter...

[adaseb]

I think many of these central banks are stumped why are prices still going up when borrowing money is so expensive these days. Been basically a year since they started to increase rates. At first it didn’t mean much because they were small but by the end of the year we had very high rates.

However the demand for everything is still up. People are traveling. Buying houses and cars. Earnings are great for many companies. Hence why they paused and will need to continue raising until there is demand destruction.