A bitcoin retirement plan with a disturbing length of years.

[fuguebtc]

From you stand point on this you actually don't believe in Bitcoin, even though I find it weird that you here already and still have doubts about Bitcoin, despite that you are always entitled to your opinion, but this is that rare case someone from this forum comes out open to write that they had a discussion with someone else and tried talking them about their concerns on Bitcoin.

If you don't think Bitcoin would Last as long as 16yrs what makes you feel what ever alternative you have would also last that long, nothing is certain not even fiat, the world keeps advancing and before Fiat we have had other means of exchange. I think your friend is making a smart choice,the only let down I see is that he may be affecting his standard of living giving out that percentage of his salary in saving for Bitcoin depending on what the salary looks like.

Not that he doubts bitcoin, but as you also said, nothing is certain, and everything is risky, and bitcoin is no exception. I invest and have great faith in the future of bitcoin, but that doesn't mean I have to put all my faith in bitcoin alone without any backup plan. And there's nothing wrong with questioning the future of bitcoin, as it's been around for more than a decade and hasn't been legalized worldwide, suggesting that there's still a lot of risk surrounding bitcoin.
Why do people diversify their portfolios and not focus on bitcoin? They also don't trust bitcoin?

[Crypt0Gore]

It's not disturbing, it's doable.

16years look like something too far in the future but it's not impossible to plan towards such period of time with Bitcoin, with many institutions getting into Bitcoin, it looks like something that can easily survive the next 20 years.

If you can't do this, that's you, please do not talk your friend out of this great plan of his, and moreover this is a plan target with just 20% of his income, I have no reason not to even encourage him.

with 20% of his monthly income, it shows that he understands the risks, be more encouraging to him instead.

[Texac]

Most people hold their retirement funds in fiat currencies, even though fiat is prone to a high level of inflation, confiscation by the bank or government or a collapse of the financial institution that is holding the funds, but yet people save their money in fiat for longer than 16 years and do not consider it to be ridiculous.

There's nothing ridiculous about holding and accumulating BTC for 16 years, BTC gives the person control of their funds, it is censorship resistant and permissionless and as long as the person owns the keys and do not lose it, the funds will be safe, so it is a better choice for long term holdings. If you're worried about what BTC's price will be at that time, it isn't possible for anyone to know, but because the supply will continue to reduce and because of the usefulness of BTC the demand will also continue to increase, then surely the price will be good even at that time.

If everything goes as smoothly as you think, investing and holding bitcoin is almost perfect.  but the OP's worries are not in vain as we have nothing to prove that the bitcoin price will definitely be better in 16 years.  i am not denying that the demand for bitcoin is increasing every day, but there is no guarantee that it will remain for the next 16 years.  I sympathize with the OP's concern, we will still invest in bitcoin but should plan to diversify rather than focus our entire retirement plan on bitcoin.

[Asuspawer09]

I have this colleague of mine at workplace who is a bitcoin enthusiast just like me. Often times at work when we're less occupied with our job we kind of spend such moment's  discussing about bitcoin generally. Two days ago he was telling me about his plans to start buying BTC with 20% of his salary every month for the rest of the years he has to retirement that's when he will then take it all. And based on the company total years of service he has 16 years left to his retirement.

With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.

In my opinion I wanted to talk to him with a logical conclusion why he should reduce the length of years, not to do it at a stretch of straight 16years he has in mind without applying risk management technique, maybe by splitting those 16years into four interjecting years. As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

I mean it wasn't actually a bad idea, for sure investing in Bitcoin for years is great and it might actually and could easily give you a huge amount of profit in the future. But what he just needs to do is just to observe the market and be updated on it, and at the same time learn how to sell and buy, its actually an advantage since he could just HODL for a long time because the money was just for his retirement so that means he could buy and sell when the price increase or drop at any moment.

He just needs to watch out on bear and bull run since if he's just going to HODL for 16 years that might not make any sense, I mean its possible that it's going to be a huge profit but it doesnt really guarantee retirement, The best way to do it is to watch the bear and bull run market, at least sell a small percentage or half of it on a bull run and rebuy again on the bear market. With that, you could easily guarantee the profit since you are taking profit every time the market price skyrocket.

[gunhell16]

I have this colleague of mine at workplace who is a bitcoin enthusiast just like me. Often times at work when we're less occupied with our job we kind of spend such moment's  discussing about bitcoin generally. Two days ago he was telling me about his plans to start buying BTC with 20% of his salary every month for the rest of the years he has to retirement that's when he will then take it all. And based on the company total years of service he has 16 years left to his retirement.

With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.

In my opinion I wanted to talk to him with a logical conclusion why he should reduce the length of years, not to do it at a stretch of straight 16years he has in mind without applying risk management technique, maybe by splitting those 16years into four interjecting years. As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

If I were you, just let him do what he's planning, maybe the best thing to do is help him expand his understanding of Bitcoin, especially the things he doesn't know and really understands right now.

Because I believe that if you do that with him as a friend and for sure that you won't need to tell him about something you think shouldn't be done, but he himself will change the plans of what he wants to do. What will happen is that you are right that it is possible that the result will not be good.

[Minhxx]

In my opinion we should not invest for too long, the market looks pretty good right now but we don't know what they will be like 10 years from now, in my opinion you should gather your capital and buy one time only. at least 1 year and sell them when you see your profit enough. I usually accumulate assets and buy bitcoin at the end of the year, when investors are looking for a way out of this market

[darkangel11]

As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

Taking 50% where? I don't understand what you mean.
Do you mean selling 50% of the investment every 4 years? What is he supposed to do with the money? Wait for a bear market to buy more bitcoin? It's a retirement plan, so he probably wants the money to remain not taxed until he starts spending it and he doesn't want to pay exchange fees every few years. Your strategy would work only if bitcoin followed 4 year cycles for the next 3 cycles.

[michellee]

If he saw that the price of Bitcoin could increase very high, say above $ 100k-$ 250k, he would be tempted to sell it and decide to retire early. With such high profit potential, I don't think he will wait until 16 especially when he sees huge profits right before his eyes.

16 years is not a long time because, with busy work, 16 years will pass quickly. But I wonder can he stay invested in Bitcoin for 16 years? Because most people can't wait until 16 years, especially if the price of Bitcoin can increase very much after the next halving.

He needs to have a strong hand holding his Bitcoins because he must have seen the price fluctuate frequently during that waiting time. Emotional control is needed in investing in Bitcoin so that he can hold on to the target he wants.

[BD Crypto]

With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.

Actually both are good thoughts in terms of investment but I will suggest and appreciate the idea of OP's friend as he wants to invest 20% of his salary every month. This strategy will help him to get more returns. But if you suggest to invest in every 4 years then he might miss the bullrun.
And we should keep trust on Bitcoin because mass adoption is ongoing and it's totally decentralized and transparent. And Bitcoin already proved about it's potential in 14 years by creating history again and again.

[LogitechMouse]

16 years for me isn't that long. Take note that the Stock Market is existing for many years already, and there are some studies that have been conducted, and on that, it shows that if you just invested on index funds for a certain amount of years, it's 100% certain that you will get profit.

Of course stock market isn't equal to cryptocurrency because like you said, we don't know the future of it, but I'm pretty sure that many here are holding their Bitcoin for more than 5 years already, some might even go as high as 10 years, and there might be some that's higher. As for me, I'm planning to hold my Bitcoin for at least 5 years then from that, I don't know what I will do with my Bitcoins.

Well if history repeats itself, Bitcoin in 16 years might reach as high as $500,000 or a million. We don't know what can be the price of it at that time, but history shows that the trend of the price of Bitcoin is uptrend... so I guess I can say that your colleague's decision might be right, but of course there are some risks to it like the fact that we don't know what can Bitcoin be 16 years from now, and the like.

[Gozie51]

Why do people diversify their portfolios and not focus on bitcoin? They also don't trust bitcoin?

No I don't think it is because of trust that people won't stay with only bitcoin but however, there is a saying that a wise man doesn't rely on only one source of income to be financially stable and satisfied to take care of the family. Diversification is economically wise. Agreed that bitcoin has a level of guarantee but some other coins have survived through time so to also keep some reserve with etheruem is quite reasonable. Apart from bitcoin and etheruem, some other altcoins have also fluctuated and survived like bitcoin, variety is the spice of life as it is said.

[SOKO-DEKE]

16 years of saving 20% of his salary into BTC may be a wrong and risky move because of the uncertainty. I feel he should not dive into this if the saving is really towards retirement.

Sincerely, I don't see nothing wrong with the plan to put 20% of the employee's pay into bitcoin over a 16-years period.Can it, however, afford to lose it? I don't believe that because the investment is made in anticipation of retirement and the goal is to spend the money after retirement or have plans for it.I would counsel him or her to spread out his or her 20% savings among a variety of reputable investments rather than only Bitcoin.

I will also suggest that he can do like 5% in BTC for the duration of 16 years(Take the interest as often as possible) In my own opinion,20% is too high. However, if the retirement plan stated above is not available in his workplace then he should invest 15% out of the 20% in a more secure investment because he's saving towards retirement while 5% goes into BTC.

Your idea is not bad, but if he or she wants to take profit often, I think it is also good to go in that 20%, so that the profits he or she is making from the Bitcoin investment will go to other savings.but seriously According to the history of Bitcoin, it has proven to be a good investment since its existence, but the issue is that nobody knows what will happen in future,and that is why many experts are always warning new investors to invest what they can afford to lose. 

[Ultegra134]

As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

Taking 50% where? I don't understand what you mean.
Do you mean selling 50% of the investment every 4 years? What is he supposed to do with the money? Wait for a bear market to buy more bitcoin? It's a retirement plan, so he probably wants the money to remain not taxed until he starts spending it and he doesn't want to pay exchange fees every few years. Your strategy would work only if bitcoin followed 4 year cycles for the next 3 cycles.

I believe that he's meaning to sell 50% of the acquired profits, if there are any, every 4 years. By doing so, he would be decreasing the risk of ultimately losing his initial investment if things take a sudden turn for the worse because he'd be claiming profit throughout the 16 years of the investment. However, there isn't any guarantee that in those four periods of four years, there'd be a profit in between to claim; we could be suffering another bear market that could last years, similarly to the one we're going through now, or in 2018–2020.

I'm generally confident in myself regarding Bitcoin; I don't believe that it'll burst in the upcoming years, but 16 years isn't a short time period. Throughout all these years, the market would have had an abundance of ups and downs that could lead to a possible sale or the abandonment of the initial plan.

[worle1bm]

That's actually good plan because you are just aggregating few percent of your salary into Bitcoin and keeping rest aside for personal use or in savings.This is helpful as you have constant flow of income in the form of salary and later on you can enjoy your retirement with the accumulated btc when the prices will be high being optimistic about the growth for future.It is just our savings and you can withdraw anytime if you are in need without the intervention of third parties but through exchanges you have to go through all the KYC process also but going DCA is good if you are earning and have interest,faith and understanding about Bitcoin.

[Kakmakr]

Every person should have a balanced portfolio.... and you are not telling us if he is invested in something else. I categorize my financial portfolio in to 3 categories, low / medium / high risk investments. Bitcoin is placed in the high risk category, because it is still perceived as an ongoing experiment.

Tell your friend to divide his investment capital into these categories and to invest the smallest amount into high risk investments. Younger people can invest more into higher risk investments, because they have time to build again.. if it fails.     

[kamvreto]

~snip~I know that everyone, even though they are married, has a frugal lifestyle plus a large monthly salary, for example, of course they can set aside a little for bitcoin, if their salary is above $1500 I think they invest a little in bitcoin.

$1500 is a pretty big salary and even setting aside $500 to invest in bitcoin would be great. living with $1000 a month I think is enough to pay the bills and for the needs of the family. A thrifty lifestyle will be profitable, where every salary comes out there will be several plans for using money. If from the start you have set aside a small salary for Bitcoin and can run for the next few years, it will really be a Bitcoin savings that will provide more benefits beyond our expectations.

[abel1337]

I have this colleague of mine at workplace who is a bitcoin enthusiast just like me. Often times at work when we're less occupied with our job we kind of spend such moment's  discussing about bitcoin generally. Two days ago he was telling me about his plans to start buying BTC with 20% of his salary every month for the rest of the years he has to retirement that's when he will then take it all. And based on the company total years of service he has 16 years left to his retirement.

With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.

In my opinion I wanted to talk to him with a logical conclusion why he should reduce the length of years, not to do it at a stretch of straight 16years he has in mind without applying risk management technique, maybe by splitting those 16years into four interjecting years. As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

Your friend is a true bitcoin supporter if he really did this kind of thing. 16 years is pretty long and there are so many things that will happen in this 16 years of time. At this time, it's either bitcoin is at it's downfall or bitcoin is at a price that we don't really expect that it can be that high. There's a risk but I guess your friend really believes that bitcoin will conquer the future and it will bring a positive impact in his life. He might even broke his plan and do other things like doing other things to increase the amount of bitcoin he has. I believe it is a DCA strategy that your friend planned but doing it for 16 years? It's pretty hard core in my opinion. Most of us wants a profit and there is a possibility that your friend might be contented with the profit he will have in the future.

[Nwada001]

In my opinion we should not invest for too long, the market looks pretty good right now but we don't know what they will be like 10 years from now, in my opinion you should gather your capital and buy one time only. at least 1 year and sell them when you see your profit enough. I usually accumulate assets and buy bitcoin at the end of the year, when investors are looking for a way out of this market

Buying one time is good considering that you might not need the money anytime soon, but to me, gradual buying with little that you can afford is the best idea.

If you are saying it's a bad thing for one to buy and hold for the long term, I will completely disagree with you because you have in mind that you just bought your Bitcoin today and you expect profit tomorrow or anytime soon, which is really a bad idea. Some times it takes those long periods, which you are afraid of, for you to really make your expected profit.

When thinking about profit in the short run, also consider the fact that the price might actually dump and you might likely be recording losses instead of profits, which will require you to hold for a long time in order to earn back your invested capital and an added profit.

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration. (16 years)

Pure investment and it will always depend. For me, as long as your friend will not end up broke even though his investment every month will be gone, he will still be able to live after retirement even without the investment (just in case something bad happen). In short, he will not 100% rely on his investment in Bitcoin after he retires.
Your colleague must consider also if that 20% of their monthly salary of him is too much or not so? Is he willing to lose it every month?
16 years is a very long time, Bitcoin is still 14 years since it was created.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

Pure investment and it will always depend. For me, as long as your friend will not end up broke even though his investment every month will be gone, he will still be able to live after retirement even without the investment (just in case something bad happen). In short, he will not 100% rely on his investment in Bitcoin after he retires.

If he has income from his retirement salary monthly, it is good for his finance and it is better than many people who don't have retirement salary for their life when they are old. If your colleague has good savings, he can use some of it and even includes part of retirement salary in future to invest in Bitcoin or something else. It's just he must afford to lose those money before investing.

Your colleague must consider also if that 20% of their monthly salary of him is too much or not so? Is he willing to lose it every month?
16 years is a very long time, Bitcoin is still 14 years since it was created.

14 years is short when we look back the history but it is too long if we have to live in the market, day by day, month by month and year by year. A lot of challenges in the market and it's hard to live in the market without stress.

More stressful, we can not know about future of Bitcoin and even we believe that Bitcoin won't die, we must have plan for our finance in case Bitcoin will die.