Why do 90% of Bettors Lose in Sports Betting in the Long-term?

[slapper]

One of the easiest ways to lose money is obviously to bet on sports that you are not knowledgeable or experienced about because you can barely win with predictions that have no basis at all, sports betting requires one to have enough knowledge and experience to be able to master the art of winning in it, otherwise, it will take away all the money one has if they bet like an expert on games that they know nothing at all about, that's definitely a disaster.

If someone wants to pass their time or have some action, they should simply play on some slots machine where they might also hit some big multiplier while playing and it's both fun and thrilling while I don't see much thrill in betting on a game that you don't know at all only to see yourself lose, or maybe win if you are too lucky.

Betting on an unknown team from an unknown league is the easiest way to lose money. I agree with your opinion because I think betting money on such a team is nothing more than guesswork in the dark. They wished for luck without having a database to analyze, so in the end their victory was purely down to luck.

I tend to recommend them play the slots instead of spending money without having fun on unknown teams and leagues. They couldn't win many bets that way, but if they had a database and did some analysis then of course the winning percentage would increase.

Risking money on something you don't know much about is like attempting to prepare a gourmet cuisine without a recipe. Though you could possibly create a tasty dish, the more likely outcome is that you'll completely destroy the kitchen in the process. It baffles me why somebody would wager on a subject they are completely unfamiliar with.

Slot machine gambling could possibly be more exciting. If nothing else, celebrating your victory comes with all the trappings. However, if you must gamble, at least arm yourself with knowledge. Examine the teams' records and stats, as well as their relative strengths and shortcomings. It's not about carelessly spending money, but rather about making smart investments

[Fredomago]

~snip~

Nothing to say about that' as there are many people who mistakenly think that they can continue the wins and they are already have the winning patterns, and instead of quitting for good, they will continue and try playing more. We really can't tell what's the reason behind they just wanted t make more money and greed already conquer their mindsets.

You said it right. They think that by continuing to play, they still have a chance to win, especially if they can use more capital because the wins they will get are big. But they should do some self-reflection before betting on sports to see if they are making the profits they want. If not, they must stop immediately before it's too late because the gambling business is fast, so if you decide late, it will be difficult for you to make a profit.

It would be difficult for you to make a profit if you can't control yourself, being tempted in every look inside sports house will push you to keep on betting, some may win and some may lost but the catch and the very difficult side of it is when you can't resist the lust and desire that you've got. Your appetite to please the needs of betting will always whisper in your ears.

Most of the time, sports bettors lost as they keep on betting instead of finding value bets they will just bet to please what inside them to the point that they already losing a decent amount of money.

[LUCKMCFLY]

That seems to suggest that a lay bet of the same bets would make people alot of money.  Do both and just place the larger amount of value with what has tended to work in the past, lay or bet.   Then you can have fun betting and also make money at the same time.   Im usually betting on a team or sport I would watch anyway, its for fun not the idea Im somehow on my path to riches because I like to bet on a match every now and again; people are kidding themselves too much.

Winning has a cost, and one of them is consistency and familiarity with the gaming system. For me, I am familiar with the challenging teams that surround the league on which I wager, which is the English Premier League. Although it's a tough league, certain things can guarantee to happen. Manchester City cannot lose ten games in a season, and their chances of winning every game are likely to be 80%. As you can see, the majority of my gambling targets are aimed directly at the cityzens, and I'm confident that each game wager in favor of Manchester City has an 80% success rate, higher than any other club in the league, with these simple strategy, making money from gambling quite easy.

I believe that here Things can be taken from various perspectives , we as human beings are people of many customs, if we do something as one is used to Doing it, if it is not done that way I think that we ourselves sometimes cause Problems to achieve a specific objective, then we can also consider something like a Decision and take our Statistics to see if there is some kind of improvement , if it is said that a person will lose in the long term, it means that they will always play, 10, 20 years the person will not stop betting on Sports , that is something that can already change, consequently I believe that there are cases in which things are not going to be fulfilled, because not everyone has the same time to bet or something similar, so everything can change.

I am one of those who Believe that sports can be won, the more you know about a sport you can win, there is no way to Avoid that Fans of a Sport handle data that is sometimes very Specific , because there are many who are Dedicated to following their favorite Athletes , they know every case, now there is a great advantage and it is the Social Networks, the Athletes' Instagram, they always report their state of health, how they feel , the things they do, that is partly a Plus and serves a lot to the time to do a good individual Analysis.

At the team level, sports reports and notarons are Excellent , When there are even friendly Matches , it can be seen that Players are Going to Participate and which are not, this can give us an indication of why a player does not go, and why other if he goes, why a Coach Prevents an x player than the other, or if a player Was Given Permission to play or not for his Country , Those are very significant Details but very Significant Details very Important.

[Saint-loup]

Understanding the concept of fair odds is a pivotal step towards grasping why the vast majority of bettors continually face losses in the realm of sports betting.

Let’s start with a simple coin toss, where each side holds a 50% chance (or 0.5) of landing face-up. The fair odds here would be 1/0.5 = 2.

Now, consider a six-sided dice roll. Each face possesses a 16.67% chance (or 0.1667) of landing face-up. The fair odds, in this case, would amount to 1/0.1667 = 6. If you bet on five out of the six faces, you secure an impressive 83.33% chance (or 0.8333) of winning. The fair odds for this scenario equate to 1/0.8333 = 1.2. In other words, if you place a $1 bet on five out of the six faces and win, you’ll receive $1.2.

At this point, you might be tempted to think that betting on favorites with low odds would ensure long-term success. However, that’s not the case.

Let’s delve into some calculations:

Expected Value (EV) in statistics is a predicted value of a variable. It is calculated as the sum of all possible values, each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. In the context of sports betting, EV represents the long-term average payoff from an event. If the EV is positive (+EV), the bet holds the potential for profitability in the long run. Conversely, if the EV is negative (-EV), the bet is likely to result in losses over time.

EV = (Fair Win Probability) x (Profit) - (Fair Loss Probability) x (Loss)

Consider an operator that charges a commission for the dice roll game, causing the favorite to have odds of 1.17 and the underdog odds of 5.85.

What would happen if you bet on the favorite in the long run?

You’d end up facing losses. Let’s calculate:

EV = 0.8333 x ($0.17) – 0.1667 x ($1) = -$0.025

In this case, for every $1 bet, you’d lose $0.025.

The result would be the same if you bet on the underdog with odds 5.85:

EV = 0.1667 x ($4.85) – 0.8333 x ($1) = -$0.025

It doesn’t matter whether you bet on low odds or high odds; in the long run, you’ll lose money.

Now, imagine a tennis match where two players are evenly matched, each holding a 50% chance of winning. The fair odds for both players would be 2.0. However, bookmakers offer lower odds, such as 1.9 for each player. This discrepancy represents the bookmakers’ commission.

Let’s calculate the EV with odds of 1.9:

EV = 0.5 x ($0.9) - 0,5 x ($1) = -$0.05

If you use decimal(aka european) odds like in your example, a simpler way to get compute the Expected Value is to just take the decimal odds by their own and not to just take the winnings and then to subtract 1 or 1 x $1 if you prefer. Because you can consider that you lose all your stake for every bet (1 x $1) and you win it back if you win your bet($1.9 instead of $0.9)
So here you will get with the figures of your example :
EV = 0.5 x $1.9 - $1 = -$0.05  

[DoublerHunter]

Betting on an unknown team from an unknown league is the easiest way to lose money. I agree with your opinion because I think betting money on such a team is nothing more than guesswork in the dark. They wished for luck without having a database to analyze, so in the end their victory was purely down to luck.

~snip~

Indeed, this is quite reasonable to be one of the causes of losing in betting on sports and it is important that general knowledge for the team or league that we know will make it easier for us to make money. Maybe the origin of this guess is not fully justified but instead the failure rate is far greater than the level of luck and because of this things should be avoided. Apart from that, betting on a big team that we believe can win easily will be far more able to make money with certainty, of course in this case it is a bet for an official match, not a friendly match.

^This was also in my mind which I think was right.
Having a solid understanding of the teams or leagues we bet on significantly reduces the chances of losing money. The fact is while luck plays a role, it should not be the sole basis for our bets. Avoiding hasty guesses and relying on substantial knowledge is crucial. Betting on strong teams with a high likelihood of winning in official matches provides a more certain path to potential earnings compared to betting on friendly matches. Being a knowledgable decision based on sound analysis can lead to better outcomes in sports betting.

[freedomgo]

Betting on an unknown team from an unknown league is the easiest way to lose money. I agree with your opinion because I think betting money on such a team is nothing more than guesswork in the dark. They wished for luck without having a database to analyze, so in the end their victory was purely down to luck.

~snip~

Indeed, this is quite reasonable to be one of the causes of losing in betting on sports and it is important that general knowledge for the team or league that we know will make it easier for us to make money. Maybe the origin of this guess is not fully justified but instead the failure rate is far greater than the level of luck and because of this things should be avoided. Apart from that, betting on a big team that we believe can win easily will be far more able to make money with certainty, of course in this case it is a bet for an official match, not a friendly match.

^This was also in my mind which I think was right.
Having a solid understanding of the teams or leagues we bet on significantly reduces the chances of losing money. The fact is while luck plays a role, it should not be the sole basis for our bets. Avoiding hasty guesses and relying on substantial knowledge is crucial. Betting on strong teams with a high likelihood of winning in official matches provides a more certain path to potential earnings compared to betting on friendly matches. Being a knowledgable decision based on sound analysis can lead to better outcomes in sports betting.

Yes, that is why it is called sports betting for a reason and in this type of gambling, you will not be basing all of your bets on your luck in that given day because it's not the only factor that will increase your chances of winning as analyzation and reading some recent datums are also required in this area. Betting without a single knowledge of how the game is played will just give you a negative outcome. Also, there is no need to be hasty in this field just because you want to gamble, schedules are posted for a reason as well and in this instance, it will give you more space not to get addicted in the industry.

[pawel7777]

In relation to the topic, has anyone actually seen any sources for that 90% figure (of bettors losing long-term)?
I tried to find it but hit a wall. There are few articles claiming that only 3%-5% of sports bettors are successful, which sounds about right, but they're not citing any specific sources but are only referring to "different studies".

If anyone has seen any actual study and could provide a link, that would be great.

[Altryist]

In relation to the topic, has anyone actually seen any sources for that 90% figure (of bettors losing long-term)?
I tried to find it but hit a wall. There are few articles claiming that only 3%-5% of sports bettors are successful, which sounds about right, but they're not citing any specific sources but are only referring to "different studies".

If anyone has seen any actual study and could provide a link, that would be great.

You can try to conduct a survey, but will you be sure that you are being answered honestly? I can say that I am a player with many years of experience and I agree that it is very difficult to make money in betting. I'm not one to win big money, but I've also lost a lot, I've tried many different strategies, but I've often had to break even, so I tend to think it's really hard to win at gambling. And it doesn't really matter to me how accurate this statistic is.

[molsewid]

In relation to the topic, has anyone actually seen any sources for that 90% figure (of bettors losing long-term)?
I tried to find it but hit a wall. There are few articles claiming that only 3%-5% of sports bettors are successful, which sounds about right, but they're not citing any specific sources but are only referring to "different studies".

If anyone has seen any actual study and could provide a link, that would be great.

Maybe because they are just going with they hype but not really into sports betting , they just want to get more money sometimes because betting in sports is kinda easy and fast , you just need to bet in your favorite team and wait for the game to end but that was the most commonly thing that a person can lead to losses because sometimes they didn't even into sports or they don't really want sports.

[klidex]

Betting on an unknown team from an unknown league is the easiest way to lose money. I agree with your opinion because I think betting money on such a team is nothing more than guesswork in the dark. They wished for luck without having a database to analyze, so in the end their victory was purely down to luck.

~snip~

Indeed, this is quite reasonable to be one of the causes of losing in betting on sports and it is important that general knowledge for the team or league that we know will make it easier for us to make money. Maybe the origin of this guess is not fully justified but instead the failure rate is far greater than the level of luck and because of this things should be avoided. Apart from that, betting on a big team that we believe can win easily will be far more able to make money with certainty, of course in this case it is a bet for an official match, not a friendly match.

^This was also in my mind which I think was right.
Having a solid understanding of the teams or leagues we bet on significantly reduces the chances of losing money. The fact is while luck plays a role, it should not be the sole basis for our bets. Avoiding hasty guesses and relying on substantial knowledge is crucial. Betting on strong teams with a high likelihood of winning in official matches provides a more certain path to potential earnings compared to betting on friendly matches. Being a knowledgable decision based on sound analysis can lead to better outcomes in sports betting.

Yes, that is why it is called sports betting for a reason and in this type of gambling, you will not be basing all of your bets on your luck in that given day because it's not the only factor that will increase your chances of winning as analyzation and reading some recent datums are also required in this area. Betting without a single knowledge of how the game is played will just give you a negative outcome. Also, there is no need to be hasty in this field just because you want to gamble, schedules are posted for a reason as well and in this instance, it will give you more space not to get addicted in the industry.

Even though you have knowledge or always do analysis every time you want to bet on sports betting, in the end it all still depends on each other luck.
I have experienced this problem many time when I did an analysis a few days before placing my bet but everything was still in vain and I lost again but when I only bet on the favorite team without doing the analysis I actually got consecutive win.
So having knowledge or doing careful analysis of these does not guarantee victory on sportsbetting or all types of betting

[Huppercase]

I think the main thing is that most people whom bet sports aren’t really as knowledgeable about the sports they are betting on as much as they think they are. A lot of people will also just make bets on sports games just to have some “action” on something that day. Those are both two recipes for disaster but people tend to not be able to control themselves.

Even though many people that bet on sportbet are not that knowledgeable, there are people that are still making huge profits from betting. There are people that had gain the knowledge and pattern of betting and having a consistent winning and they don't waste time making money from sport bet. Sport bet is very easy to make profits but some persons had used greed to scatter there possibility of making winnings which is one of the problems of gamblers.

 If we know that winning is not something that we need to force or fight at all means for us to make money from gambling, we all going to start making winnings gradually without pressure.

You are making poor assumptions of winnings, you can't play sportbet and think you will win without proper knowledge, you need good orientation to even begin selection of games and the option that comes with, the only way I think you can play sportbet without putting good use of knowledge is copying code of an already staked game or match then any other gamblers can use that code to bet similar games but it has disadvantage because if the original source lost a match, the rest of open ticket will be lost.

You don't force gambling, when you do that you will realize that you have lost more than what you are profiting from the casino and sport bookies. Don't get addicted addicted because you are trying to make back what you have lost else that emotions will make you do decisions you will forever regret and that's after your mind has settled down, you are right on your second point and like how you justify it.

[seleme]

Thanks for the detailed explanation!
The main reason is the house edge factor as you explained, the more we bet on sports bookies the higher commission they get from overall turnover. Let's don't forget bookies have the ability to hedge all bets on various platforms to make it risk-free bets. Just my 2 cents.

[AmoreJaz]

In relation to the topic, has anyone actually seen any sources for that 90% figure (of bettors losing long-term)?
I tried to find it but hit a wall. There are few articles claiming that only 3%-5% of sports bettors are successful, which sounds about right, but they're not citing any specific sources but are only referring to "different studies".

If anyone has seen any actual study and could provide a link, that would be great.

this topic is quite subjective, so you can just approximate the numbers here. hard to make a general statement on this as the stats is hard to collate, in my opinion. so like for example, the 3-5% of sports bettors that are successful may not be the right percentage but it tells us that the number is really small. in the long run, gamblers will indeed lose if they won't stop as house edge is always in play. this is why casinos and bookies want you to play as long as you want, because later on, you will only stop once your bankroll is empty.

[Fredomago]

In relation to the topic, has anyone actually seen any sources for that 90% figure (of bettors losing long-term)?
I tried to find it but hit a wall. There are few articles claiming that only 3%-5% of sports bettors are successful, which sounds about right, but they're not citing any specific sources but are only referring to "different studies".

If anyone has seen any actual study and could provide a link, that would be great.

this topic is quite subjective, so you can just approximate the numbers here. hard to make a general statement on this as the stats is hard to collate, in my opinion. so like for example, the 3-5% of sports bettors that are successful may not be the right percentage but it tells us that the number is really small. in the long run, gamblers will indeed lose if they won't stop as house edge is always in play. this is why casinos and bookies want you to play as long as you want, because later on, you will only stop once your bankroll is empty.

You have a good point here mate, as there's relevance with the percentage that you provide in relation to how OP state the topic, and with that explanation on why it's valid as well since if you will keep playing and keep pushing for more the outcome may turned against you, maybe you'll find some luck from some of those bets/picks that you made, but along the way there's a big chance that you will lose and luck will not be backing you up anymore.

And with the intention of recovering, you'll find yourself trying hard and leaving you with an empty bankroll.

[Josefjix]

It would be difficult for you to make a profit if you can't control yourself, being tempted in every look inside sports house will push you to keep on betting, some may win and some may lost but the catch and the very difficult side of it is when you can't resist the lust and desire that you've got. Your appetite to please the needs of betting will always whisper in your ears.

Most of the time, sports bettors lost as they keep on betting instead of finding value bets they will just bet to please what inside them to the point that they already losing a decent amount of money.

More scenarios observed where alot of gamblers tends to lose in the long-term race, its very important we keep to our lay down disciplinary measures. Implementing principles will serve more important prospects, allowing one to become a successful gambler. Self-control and discipline continued to be the most significant characteristics that would prevent a gambler from losing money in sports betting. Long-term bets are obviously more dangerous as they require more time; therefore, most gamblers choose to keep this revenue low and focus on live games, where earning money becomes easier.

[pawel7777]

this topic is quite subjective, so you can just approximate the numbers here. hard to make a general statement on this as the stats is hard to collate, in my opinion. so like for example, the 3-5% of sports bettors that are successful may not be the right percentage but it tells us that the number is really small. in the long run, gamblers will indeed lose if they won't stop as house edge is always in play. this is why casinos and bookies want you to play as long as you want, because later on, you will only stop once your bankroll is empty.

I'm interested in sports betting in particular because the house doesn't have a strictly defined mathematical edge, so it's possible for players to actually have an advantage if the odds are misplaced.
I agree, it would be a hard task to collate reliable data. I would definitely not rely on players' self-reported profitability, as they're often deluded about it, with most being at loss but thinking they're in a "break-even" position.

We could get 100% reliable data from the betting platforms themselves, but obviously they won't share it unless forced by the governments, i.e. in a similar fashion to CFD trading platforms in Europe having to clearly display the percentage of retail investors losing money.

[Gyfts]

...

I'd argue the law of averages is irrelevant to sports betting entirely. Sportsbooks create odds to balance the amount of bets on either side of a possible outcome and obviously they use a range of analytics to help form the odds. But, you can't actually calculated the expected probability of a sports match, and for the law of averages to apply, you would need a reasonable expected frequency. The odds for sports matches aren't mathematical, so the EV's guesswork.

[Cryptmuster]

Yes, that is why it is called sports betting for a reason and in this type of gambling, you will not be basing all of your bets on your luck in that given day because it's not the only factor that will increase your chances of winning as analyzation and reading some recent datums are also required in this area. Betting without a single knowledge of how the game is played will just give you a negative outcome. Also, there is no need to be hasty in this field just because you want to gamble, schedules are posted for a reason as well and in this instance, it will give you more space not to get addicted in the industry.

Although the ability to analyze a certain event plays a big role in betting, but at the expense of luck, this is a very interesting question, to what extent luck can still influence our results in betting.

You can try to take into account all the factors before the event, read all the news, know about all the players who will miss the match, study the motivation of the teams for this match, but in the end the bet may be losing. There is no guarantee in betting that you will definitely win that bet if you take certain actions, but it can certainly increase your chances of success.

[maydna]

~snip~

It would be difficult for you to make a profit if you can't control yourself, being tempted in every look inside sports house will push you to keep on betting, some may win and some may lost but the catch and the very difficult side of it is when you can't resist the lust and desire that you've got. Your appetite to please the needs of betting will always whisper in your ears.

Most of the time, sports bettors lost as they keep on betting instead of finding value bets they will just bet to please what inside them to the point that they already losing a decent amount of money.

We have to avoid that so we don't lose more money. Even though it's still difficult for us to control ourselves, we must keep trying because we will only lose more money without trying continuously. There are winners and losers, which is normal in gambling, so we must realize that we shouldn't expect too much when playing gambling. And if they can't control their money to gamble, they will continue to lose money in the long run, and instead of getting wins, they will miss the chance to take those wins because they can't accept the small wins they already have. There must be time to rest after gambling to relieve emotions for some time so that we can also manage the remaining money still in our gambling account.

[Viscore]

Yes, that is why it is called sports betting for a reason and in this type of gambling, you will not be basing all of your bets on your luck in that given day because it's not the only factor that will increase your chances of winning as analyzation and reading some recent datums are also required in this area. Betting without a single knowledge of how the game is played will just give you a negative outcome. Also, there is no need to be hasty in this field just because you want to gamble, schedules are posted for a reason as well and in this instance, it will give you more space not to get addicted in the industry.

Although the ability to analyze a certain event plays a big role in betting, but at the expense of luck, this is a very interesting question, to what extent luck can still influence our results in betting.

You can try to take into account all the factors before the event, read all the news, know about all the players who will miss the match, study the motivation of the teams for this match, but in the end the bet may be losing. There is no guarantee in betting that you will definitely win that bet if you take certain actions, but it can certainly increase your chances of success.

If you are serious about sports betting, you analyze based on data, and luck is not included in that equation. Let's not even mention luck, as what we need to win in the long run is consistency—that's the main factor. However, we also need to make sure we are disciplined enough in managing our bankroll, as sometimes as gamblers, we get too emotional and break the maximum percentage based on our bankroll that we should only stake and that will result to losing what we build.