Bitcoin foundation

[DooMAD]

So, why is the number 21 million significant? Is it some kind of religious belief?

Principles can exist without religion, y'know.  Arguably, they flourish without it.  Balls to religion.  I'd rather see people being capable of judging right from wrong without needing to be bribed with the promise of heaven or threatened with the prospect of hell.  If someone requires such an incentive to be a good person, they're probably just a bad person masquerading as a good one.  Besides which, obsessions with superstition and fables is unproductive when discussing technology.  Maybe leave that crap out of it?

If you use Bitcoin, you accept the fundamentals of its design.  In the same way an upstanding person wouldn't renege on a deal, they equally wouldn't wish to breach the principles that Bitcoin was founded upon.  Changing it would effectively be pulling the rug out from under everyone who already accepted it as it is.  It's not fair to move the goalposts like that.

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[KalOlak]

So, why is the number 21 million significant? Is it some kind of religious belief?

Principles can exist without religion, y'know.  Arguably, they flourish without it.  Balls to religion.  I'd rather see people being capable of judging right from wrong without needing to be bribed with the promise of heaven or threatened with the prospect of hell.  If someone requires such an incentive to be a good person, they're probably just a bad person masquerading as a good one.  Besides which, obsessions with superstition and fables is unproductive when discussing technology.  Maybe leave that crap out of it?

If you use Bitcoin, you accept the fundamentals of its design.  In the same way an upstanding person wouldn't renege on a deal, they equally wouldn't wish to breach the principles that Bitcoin was founded upon.  Changing it would effectively be pulling the rug out from under everyone who already accepted it as it is.  It's not fair to move the goalposts like that.

Your words reflect a wealth of life experience, and I completely agree with you. However, what if principles matter not only those embedded in the Bitcoin code but also the principles guiding Bitcoin investment? What if the optimal bet of 2.625 is genuinely based on sound reasoning and has no connection to religion?

Let's take, for example, the relationships between men and women. If in your religion and your state, it is accepted that a man can have only one wife, then whether you are Jeff Bezos or a McDonald's worker, you can't violate this rule. You can't claim that having two wives is better than one, or having three wives is better than two. These are the principles on which your society is based. Because mathematically having one wife when the distribution of men and women is 50/50 is considered an optimal strategy in this game.

[Bushdark]

If in the world there are about 8 million people, each of whom will accumulate 2.625 Bitcoins in a cold wallet and never sell them, then the price of Bitcoin could skyrocket to infinity. These individuals, who have gone through natural selection and acquired 2.625 Bitcoins on the market, could unite, for example, in a religious Order, and gain the chance to change the world order. This trend is already emerging today. Pay attention to how more and more politicians and officials from different countries are being influenced by the idea of Bitcoin and becoming holders themselves.

You must understand that all liquidations of your margin positions, all losses in the market on shitcoins – these are necessary dues to become a plebeian. Then you must work diligently to accumulate 2.625 Bitcoins on the market, whatever the cost may be. When an army of approximately 8 million plebeians is assembled, you will always begin to win. By uniting in an army or an Order and following a common strategy and purpose, the plebeians' education, work experience, skills, religion, personal qualities, etc., will no longer matter. Only in this way can you defeat the selected elite with higher IQ, better education, more work experience, superior connections, and more capital than you... And you have no other choice; either join the army of plebeians or you and all your future generations will be slaves... Even if you change your names and surnames to the right ones, you will never be admitted to Yale, MIT, Berkeley, or Stanford, believe me. Our army of approximately 8 million plebeians will be invincible. Because you can't kill what is already dead.

There is something you may be missing that you don't know. If you form an army like you have explained to be a number of 8 millions holding at least 2.6 Bitcoin each without anyone selling, do you think the market will evr move? If everyone of us decided not to sell there Bitcoin holdings and waiting to sell in the future or when everyone agreed to sell, do you think the market will every move?

 We are not fighting anybody here which is something you need to know and understand. We don't need to form an army of plebeians to be able to have a bright futures and make money from the market. If we do whatever we like in the market, as weare buying, some are selling and this makes the market to be liquidized and continuous movement.

[franky1]

If in the world there are about 8 million people, each of whom will accumulate 2.625 Bitcoins in a cold wallet and never sell them,

There is something you may be missing that you don't know. If you form an army like you have explained to be a number of 8 millions holding at least 2.6 Bitcoin each without anyone selling, do you think the market will evr move? If everyone of us decided not to sell there Bitcoin holdings and waiting to sell in the future or when everyone agreed to sell, do you think the market will every move?

the OP has spent pages ignoring his own math and his own scenario many times, thus doesnt see where his own scenario doesnt play out

so lets remind him again of HIS scenario

If in the world there are about 8 million people, each of whom will accumulate 2.625 Bitcoins in a cold wallet and never sell them,

8m * 2.625=21m
21m = all coins existing now plus al coins fresh mined for the next 117 years.

knowing there is only 19.44m coins currently.
the most 8 million people can equally own is not 2.625. but 2.43btc of just current curculation

if we were to go with his math his 8m* 2.625 never selling is  ALL CURRENT PLUS FUTURE POSSIBLE COINS never selling.
locking up all 21m means locking up ALL coins from now until the year 2140 when the network finally produces the 21m^th coin he thinks should be locked up too. meaning for 117years all current coins and all new coins minted are not to be sold.
meaning no market for the next 117 year

[KalOlak]

8m * 2.625=21m
21m = all coins existing now plus al coins fresh mined for the next 117 years.

knowing there is only 19.44m coins currently.
the most 8 million people can equally own is not 2.625. but 2.43btc of just current curculation

if we were to go with his math his 8m* 2.625 never selling is  ALL CURRENT PLUS FUTURE POSSIBLE COINS never selling.
locking up all 21m means locking up ALL coins from now until the year 2140 when the network finally produces the 21m^th coin he thinks should be locked up too. meaning for 117years all current calls and all new coins minted are not to be sold.
meaning no market for the next 117 year

You say that my idea is abstract, but I don't deny that. I described an ideal strategy, but the world is not perfect. The total number of mined bitcoins will never reach 21 million, as the Bitcoin code includes a function that asymptotically approaches 21 million but never reaches it. So, to criticize me for abstraction is the same as criticizing the abstraction of the Bitcoin idea itself. Indeed, all mathematics is abstract, and that's its beauty.

[franky1]

2099999997690000sat /8m = 262499999.71125 is just a rounding error.

it still does not make your scenario fix itself to suddenly be correct of a rational thought to then leave a scenario of of a markt price rise in such a situation of your scenario rounded or not

if you however mentioned a completely different number BELOW 2.43 instead of anything like 2.62X you might have had some rational amount to still be in a market.
but you still held strong on your all coin put in cold wallet and never sold.
thus again the scenario you presented still failed

even when you tried to meander into analogies of secondary market of futures of mortgage debt and oil contracts. you failed to understand their economics. especially if the base market was not operating. thus causing negative affect on the secondary temporary contract market which too would not last

heres a hint if/when they ban all oil trade in say 2050. there will be no oil market. thus.. no oil futures market. you cant have an oils futures market if there is no oil spot market

[KalOlak]

2099999997690000sat /8m = 262499999.71125 is just a rounding error.

it still does not make your scenario fix itself to suddenly be correct

if you however mentioned a completely different number BELOW 2.43 instead of anything like 2.62X you might have had some rational amount to still be in a market.
but you still held strong on your all coin put in cold wallet and never sold.
thus again the scenario you presented still failed

even when you tried to meander into analogies of secondary market of futures of mortgage debt and oil contracts. you failed to understand their economics. especially if the base market was not operating. thus causing negative affect on the secondary temporary contract market which too would not last

heres a hint if/when they ban all oil trade in say 2050. there will be no oil market. thus.. no oil futures market. you cant have an oils futures market if there is no oil spot market

Once again, I want to remind you that all mathematical models, including mathematical model of Bitcoin, are abstract. I am not a theorist in this game, and my bet of 2.625 bitcoins is placed. Whether you make the same bet or decide to short Bitcoin is entirely your choice.

Understanding mathematically complex models is a skill possessed only by ~0.01% of individuals who hold a PhD in mathematics. The remaining ~99.99% humans are left with only belief since they may not comprehend these models or they might not even grasp that mathematics is a pure abstraction.

Code:

The generalised logistic function or Richards' curve (1959) was developed for growth modelling (extension of logistic). The model has been modified by Sugden (1981) and Satoshi (2008)

Wt[t]=W(1-(1-m)Exp[-k(t-T)/(m^(m/(1 - m)))])^(1/(1- m))

W=21000000
k=0.002625
m=0.3909
T=165.6

[noormcs5]

again if no one is selling . ill repeat..  IF NO ONE IS SELLING.. there is no market nor price
imagine a fruit stall with no fruit to sell.. then realise there is no market stall, its just an empty table and a guy twiddling his thumbs not doing anything all day,week,year

nothing to sell =no market

then when the pump and dump group get permission to finally sell.. then you will just see the market crash. with everyone trying to cash out at once.

learn the economics. learn how things actually work and other ways to help the market prosper.. because your outdated and flawed vision of a massive pump and dump group is not the method, i explained a better method in last post

Also, this theory of accumulating Bitcoin to a few hundred thousand people would be dead when the massive adoption takes place. Also, these so-called whales will also die as when they sell, they will be a lot of hands to buy and the whales may never get a chance to buy back cheap.

Once you see Bitcoin being legally accepted everywhere, these manipulators will be gone. The manipulation only works when there is an uneven distribution of wealth or they are a way of unlimited supply (for example a fiat printer) always helpful to the riches.

[KalOlak]

again if no one is selling . ill repeat..  IF NO ONE IS SELLING.. there is no market nor price
imagine a fruit stall with no fruit to sell.. then realise there is no market stall, its just an empty table and a guy twiddling his thumbs not doing anything all day,week,year

nothing to sell =no market

then when the pump and dump group get permission to finally sell.. then you will just see the market crash. with everyone trying to cash out at once.

learn the economics. learn how things actually work and other ways to help the market prosper.. because your outdated and flawed vision of a massive pump and dump group is not the method, i explained a better method in last post

Also, this theory of accumulating Bitcoin to a few hundred thousand people would be dead when the massive adoption takes place.

Your absurd thesis is easily refuted by a simple fact.

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

[KalOlak]

--snip--

Allow me to answer your question with a question. Strictly speaking, Bitcoin can be "printed" by changing just one line of its source code. And if 51% of miners reach a consensus around this version of Bitcoin, we could indeed increase the maximum supply to 30 million or 50 million. So, why is the number 21 million significant? Is it some kind of religious belief?

Code:

/** The amount of satoshis in one BTC. */
static constexpr CAmount COIN = 100000000;

/** No amount larger than this (in satoshi) is valid.
 *
 * Note that this constant is *not* the total money supply, which in Bitcoin
 * currently happens to be less than 21,000,000 BTC for various reasons, but
 * rather a sanity check. As this sanity check is used by consensus-critical
 * validation code, the exact value of the MAX_MONEY constant is consensus
 * critical; in unusual circumstances like a(nother) overflow bug that allowed
 * for the creation of coins out of thin air modification could lead to a fork.
 * */
static constexpr CAmount MAX_MONEY = 21000000 * COIN;

1. Consensus involve all Bitcoiner, not only Bitcoiner who happen to be miner.
2. Even if miners (who have total >51% hash-rate) decide to change total amount of BTC, other people who use BTC would ignore their block by default since it violate existing Bitcoin protocol.
3. IMO number 21 million isn't significant, it's just arbitrary number.
4. The change definitely require more than one line of code, such as re-determining mining reward.

So why is the number 21 million so important? Is it a magical number or your religion?

[tbct_mt2]

So why is the number 21 million so important? Is it a magical number or your religion?

The number is not important as if it can create value, altcoins including Bitcoin forks should have good value. In fact they are dead coins with no value. With failures and deads of Bitcoin forks, altcoins you can see the number fails to create value if there are no good fundamentals, strong hashrate, good decentralization, good developments.

Some altcoins try to set shorter havling cycle like one year or two years but fail to have good halving bull runs.

There are some insights about that number but only Satoshi Nakamoto knows why he used that number. He explained it in some of his emails.

How is the 21M bitcoin cap defined and enforced?

[KalOlak]

So why is the number 21 million so important? Is it a magical number or your religion?

The number is not important as if it can create value, altcoins including Bitcoin forks should have good value. In fact they are dead coins with no value. With failures and deads of Bitcoin forks, altcoins you can see the number fails to create value if there are no good fundamentals, strong hashrate, good decentralization, good developments.

Some altcoins try to set shorter havling cycle like one year or two years but fail to have good halving bull runs.

There are some insights about that number but only Satoshi Nakamoto knows why he used that number. He explained it in some of his emails.

How is the 21M bitcoin cap defined and enforced?

It means you don't understand why Satoshi chose 21 million. Nevertheless, it doesn't bother you. But does it bother you that I propose 2.625 bitcoins as optimal bet in this game?

[CarnagexD]

if no one sells a single bitcoin because everyone never sells... then there is no market. no price

trying to create a mass pump and dump group never lasts. what you need to learn is proper economics of bitcoin

imagine the underlying most efficient mining costs as the below market floor(foundation) and above that is the speculative market. if you want to aid bitcoins market then the underlying foundations of the market need to be pushed up to then have a better speculative market ontop, a market that people can then openly trade on at higher prices. thus not need any scheming pump and dump army. but instead a healthy market with healthy foundations getting stronger

Absolutely. if there is no sellers and no buyers then there will be no transactions. There is no offering in price. BTC is just like a sand in a beach. There will be no value there will be no bid and ask. It will never appreciate value because it is just being kept. If it is just being kept, then there will be no circulation,  no transaction, no fees, no minings. That's how important the liquidity is in the market.

[KalOlak]

if no one sells a single bitcoin because everyone never sells... then there is no market. no price

trying to create a mass pump and dump group never lasts. what you need to learn is proper economics of bitcoin

imagine the underlying most efficient mining costs as the below market floor(foundation) and above that is the speculative market. if you want to aid bitcoins market then the underlying foundations of the market need to be pushed up to then have a better speculative market ontop, a market that people can then openly trade on at higher prices. thus not need any scheming pump and dump army. but instead a healthy market with healthy foundations getting stronger

Absolutely. if there is no sellers and no buyers then there will be no transactions. There is no offering in price. BTC is just like a sand in a beach. There will be no value there will be no bid and ask. It will never appreciate value because it is just being kept. If it is just being kept, then there will be no circulation,  no transaction, no fees, no minings. That's how important the liquidity is in the market.

The last Bitcoin will be mined around the year 2140, which is why the sell side of order book is secured for at least another 117 years  

I bought each of my children 2.625 Bitcoins. In my will, there is a clause that will prohibit them from selling the 2.625 Bitcoins. They will only be allowed to sell the portion IF I accumulate above this amount. However, they will still be able to use the 2.625 Bitcoins for refinancing according to the strategy attached to the will.

[franky1]

satoshis reason and math for 21m is not what you think. nor does satoshis decisions or math have anything to do with your math

even cores current code for checking the 21m is bad and insecure.

it actually starts at a satoshi amount of 5,000,000,000 per block (yep check any and all block reward value in 2009 they all start in binary amount of 5,000,000,000 units not 50 units)

which after every 210k blocks the reward divides by 2
in fact and in short its actually a binary amount of
100101010000001011111001000000000
represented in hex of
12A05F200
which then displays in numeric of
5,000,000,000

which every 210k blocks the binary reward amount loses a bit
100101010000001011111001000000000 (5,000,000,000)
becomes
10010101000000101111100100000000 (2,500,000,000)
becomes
1001010100000010111110010000000 (1,250,000,000)
and so on

which if you add up all rewards and average out the timeline of the average block (secured by difficulty to try to keep them at 2016 block per fortnight(~10min/block)) then means after 32 halvings(because there was 32 bits in the first reward binary amount) every ~ 4 years, mean it totals 21m(rounding error) btc or more specific 2099999997690000sat at around 2140

[KalOlak]

satoshis reason and math for 21m is not what you think. nor does satoshis decisions or math have anything to do with your math

even cores current code for checking the 21m is bad and insecure.

it actually starts at a satoshi amount of 5,000,000,000 per block (yep check any and all block reward value in 2009 they all start in binary amount of 5,000,000,000 units not 50 units)

which after every 210k blocks the reward divides by 2
in fact and in short its actually a binary amount of
100101010000001011111001000000000
represented in hex of
12A05F200
which then displays in numeric of
5,000,000,000

which every 210k blocks the binary reward amount loses a bit
100101010000001011111001000000000 (5,000,000,000)
becomes
10010101000000101111100100000000 (2,500,000,000)
becomes
1001010100000010111110010000000 (1,250,000,000)
and so on

which if you add up all rewards and average out the timeline of the average block (secured by difficulty to try to keep them at 2016 block per fortnight(~10min/block)) then means after 32 halvings(because there was 32 bits in the first reward binary amount) every ~ 4 years, mean it totals 21m(rounding error) btc or more specific 2099999997690000sat at around 2140

What you are talking about is a specific implementation of approximating the logistic function. To implement it, you first need to conduct mathematical modeling and define the function you will be approximating. The choice of 21 million is not random. Satoshi could have chosen any parameter W.

Code:

The generalised logistic function or Richards' curve (1959) was developed for growth modelling (extension of logistic). The model has been modified by Sugden (1981) and Satoshi (2008)

Wt[t]=W(1-(1-m)Exp[-k(t-T)/(m^(m/(1 - m)))])^(1/(1- m))

W=21000000
k=0.002625
m=0.3909
T=165.6

[buwaytress]

So why is the number 21 million so important? Is it a magical number or your religion?

The number is not important as if it can create value,

Good explanation if you read every single post and email ever made by atoshi but the simple answer: 21 wasn't important, and never was. satoshi guessed at it (not alone).

The idea was to define and maintain a way to get everything running on its own and game theory traveling over time. Make it so supply of new coin is big enough early on for distribution and subsidy, that it contracts enough and at pace with market for miners to wean off subsidy and live on fees. 14 years and counting, it works.

Also, worth noting that 21m came after the idea, perhaps the better question s how the starting number of units was arrived at, as discussed in response above. Equally unimportant and I feel, arbitrary at some point.

[KalOlak]

Good explanation if you read every single post and email ever made by atoshi but the simple answer: 21 wasn't important, and never was. satoshi guessed at it (not alone).

The idea was to define and maintain a way to get everything running on its own and game theory traveling over time. Make it so supply of new coin is big enough early on for distribution and subsidy, that it contracts enough and at pace with market for miners to wean off subsidy and live on fees. 14 years and counting, it works.

Also, worth noting that 21m came after the idea, perhaps the better question s how the starting number of units was arrived at, as discussed in response above. Equally unimportant and I feel, arbitrary at some point.

We can take 21 million as an axiom and even assume that the immutability of this number is crucial. However, from the perspective of game theory, you can't claim that there is no optimal strategy or optimal bet in this game.

[KalOlak]

So why is the number 21 million so important? Is it a magical number or your religion?

It's not important, people actually took importance of unchanging expected total coin. And i don't know why you keep bringing religion topic.

Honestly, it's essential to understand the thought process of Bitcoin's creator. If people don't comprehend why Satoshi chose 21 million bitcoins and 100 million Satoshis per bitcoin, it only proves that 99.9% of them don't truly understand Bitcoin and they just blindly believe in it.

[darewaller]

The painting "Savior of the World" (Salvador Mundi) is sold once every few centuries, but that doesn't mean it has no price and  doesn't mean it has no demand.

So that's in contrast to what you said before. I mean if an organization you are talking about buys bitcoins and doesn't sell them will it make the price go up whereas we see every day there are always sellers and there are always buyers. Don't you see that this opportunity would not be possible if you still believed you would be able to gather 8 million people for the same thought.

A painting is a work of art that will be valuable according to the year it was made. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is digital money which is the easiest option to make payments than fiat in today's modern era.

In essence, a conspiracy will not progress if there is no way to address a big meaning of what they are building.

Those you see every day who buys and sells are mostly traders while institutions are known as a long term investor. They can sell after some time but I think it does not automatically mean that the price of Bitcoin will now fell down as not all institutions or retail investors are doing the same thing. Others are only continuously buying more coins.

On the other hand, the value of the painting are not only based on how old or new it is but it's also based on its quality. I don't only get on how we ended up connecting it from Bitcoin. I think there are other things which are more comparable to Bitcoin. You already mentioned one of it in fact. That is fiat money.