Netherlands enters a technical recession

[teosanru]

A "technical recession" is formally announced when a country's GDP falls for two consecutive quarters. The Dutch GDP fell by -0.4% during the first quarter, followed by another fall of 0.3%, bringing it into a technical recession by the official defintion.

But it's not techncially a recession. It's worse, it's actually Stagflation because inflation is also high sitting at 6.0%. They probably don't want the general public to know what caused the Stagflation and keep blaming it on the "supply side" of things.

https://think.ing.com/snaps/the-netherlands-in-technical-recession/

Another country, Hungary, has also announced to be going through the longest "technical recession".

https://think.ing.com/snaps/longest-technical-recession-on-record-in-hungary/

But like the situation in the Netherlands, Hungary's inflation is very high at 20%. That's true Stagflation - a time when the monetary and economic systems are out of control.

This is a pretty bad situation to be in. Honestly recession is something that I feel is cyclic, no matter what are the government policies or economic strength of a country it will eventually come & it will eventually haunt everyone. However, Stagflation is a human error. Errors made by the policy makers who did not completely understand the intensity of the situation and made incorrect decisions, because recession can be forecasted and if it's already forecasted it's a wise decision to make sure you don't have high inflation, which too can be easily managed by controlling interest rates & fiscal measures. With 20% inflation situation can get even worse as unemployment kicks in eventually.

[Unbunplease]

We have been scared of a recession for so long that we can hardly believe it anymore. A technical recession is some kind of imaginary recession. I am sure that soon the news background will change - and in the short term, speculators, as always, will be on the plus side and alarmists will be on the big minus side.

[Gyfts]

The pioneer economic crisis for the world this decade began with COVID-19 pandemic IMO. The economic effect that is going on now has its roots from 2020 when the world almost shut down for the whole year. In fact some countries in Europe stayed back from manufacturing and financial activities. So the world economy is yet to recover from that, the infiltration of wars around only amplified the situation at hand.

LOL.. this is laughable. First of all, countries such as Netherlands were not that much affected by the COVID pandemic. Most of the population got vaccinated before the Delta wave began. It was third world nations such as India and Brazil that got impacted the most. And these countries have shown robust economic growth during the last few years. So what is wrong with Netherlands? The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war has played its part, but the rot started long back. Many of the European governments still believe that they are super-rich and splurge money on unnecessary expenses. In the end, they are forced to increase taxes and this negatively affects the economy.

It's a result of both -- Russian/Ukraine war and COVID related expenditures caused inflation: https://www.worlddata.info/europe/netherlands/inflation-rates.php

Core inflation was less, obviously. You can look at currencies like Swiss Franc if you want to get an idea of how energy prices effected inflation. Swiss Franc peaked at ~3.5% which was significantly lower than other currencies in Europe. Of course Switzerland did not aggressively print money during COVID as other nations did. Predictably, their inflation rate was much lesser than others even after their energy prices rose.

[STT]

The easy answer for alot of Europe is energy costs, unless that nation has alot of oil or gas.   Apart from Romania and Norway I cant think any of them have good access to energy.  France perhaps has nuclear but even then their main power provider is suing the government for forcing them to make a loss.     So energy in turn makes everything more expensive, food and retail of many goods is easily going to rise if transport costs more.
  Simple causes of inflation are of course excess money availability but also that supply of goods is in any way impaired.   The Euro fell from any strength its had making imports more expensive generally.   Netherlands is still a wealthy country but we are talking percentage changes, its been impeded for 2 quarters.
  Long term ECB like the FED and other big central banks are juggling too much debt, that will matter as it creates certain excess supply of currency to pay for that debt.  Fiscal budgets are in deficit also, again loose policy.   It will be true for a decade, currency loses money and I think for even longer the debt is 30 years or more and nobody wants to repay it.

[DeathAngel]

They won’t be the last country to fall into recession in the next 6-12 months. This is all a result of shutting down the world due to COVID. So much money was lost & subsequent money printing that followed has done this damage. It’s going to be tough for a lot of people over the next year or so. We are here on a bitcoin forum so you know what to do to preserve your wealth & purchasing power.

[bussybuddy]

We should not only see the positive side, but also look at the challenges and difficulties that a country like the Netherlands faces. The economic situation is changing rapidly, and no one knows for sure what the future holds.

Factors such as inflation, rising costs of living, and the rise of automation all create a challenging environment for residents and businesses. "Technological recession" could affect job creation and economic growth.

However, positive prospects can also be seen in efforts by governments and leaders to find innovative solutions to these challenges. Summarizing experience and adapting to new circumstances has always been an important part of building a strong economy.

[trendcoin]

The Netherlands is one of the largest economies in the European region. I think this will be an important warning for the rest of Europe and even the rest of the world. In fact, we can't expect anything else when the FED has raised interest rates close to 6% and we have to interpret this as a natural consequence... We are going through a really uncertain period. I will try to take precautions by buying Bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin makes me happy these days by giving good buying opportunities. I hope I can turn this crisis into an opportunity. I wish everyone good luck...

[Faisal2202]

Is it fair to say that large contributing factor to the inflation is the Russia-Ukraine conflict? How much fiat did the Dutch government printed and how much resources they put out so they could send aid? That's probably billions of Euros spent already.

You pointed a good reason but that reason is not the root of the recession that was the aid that they provide to those who need it. Means the reason was that problem which needed AID. In short, our country is also printing a lot of money why? I hope they must have gold to back them up but if they don't then they are gone. We were at the edge of declaring as Default but what we did we took more loan to avoid Default.

We as nation, a single country are stuck in Debt cycle and all we can do is how to reduce that debt by time without saying or going against Governments. Yes! we have no freedom of speech here too.

The point i am trying to make here is, The country itself and the governments it self are responsible for the status of the nation.

[Flexystar]

The website says that the wage grew above inflation, which seems good to me. I mean, yeah, the economy is not growing, and that's not great, but is it really that bad if a country is at a decent state when its economy stabilizes? The Netherlands is 11th in the world in GDP by capita, and 17th by GDP in the world overall. They have a pretty low unemployment rate, and percentage of people below the poverty line. I think when we talk about stagnation, it's really important to note the difference of stagnating somewhere near the top and stagnating when the country's economy is terrible, even with constant growth.

It sounds good? Oh yeah, wait for sometime and same companies will start laying off the employees. When we say that there is increased wager above inflation, it can only counter the daily needs and costly affairs but it can't keep up the steady earnings or revenue generation for the companies that are paying those high wages. If Government is promising anything at this point, like some sort of schemes and shit then it's gonna be only in theory and they would do nothing because their treasuries are not doing so well either.

The only issue with the western countries is their highly advance lifestyle that is only "presentative" and not real one is what causing this drama of stagnation in few countries. Obviously the list is long. Automation is increasing, AI has entered the market, why the fuck owners would give any shit about employees increased wages if they could just pay pennies on maintaining automated workflows? Guess what, AI doesn't need to pay the taxes, non employed person neither. The national treasury during the inflation is gonna get brrrhh!

[el kaka22]

I feel like this will not be a big deal at all. Europeans see these numbers and think that they are going to suddenly starve to death or something, that's not what happens. As someone from another part of the world where it's normal to see these things, life just continues the way it is without any issues. Obviously you need to make some changes, like for example in the USA the inflation is insane, and prices are super higher, and yet they didn't increase the minimum wage per hour at all, that's a wrong move without a doubt.

I think it should be reminded to everyone that as long as you take the right precautions then these type of stuff like stagflation is not going to hurt your nation more than you think, it will be fine.

[serveria.com]

Most probably this is due to the energy crisis. Caused by Covid initially, it got worse with the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war and sanctions.

Between December 2020 and December 2021, the import price for energy* in the euro area more than doubled (115%).

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/edn-20220210-2

But that was just the beginning. Much worse things followed:

Key findings about energy prices in Europe:
From the first half of 2021 to October 2022, household electricity prices had risen 114% on average.
In the same period, the household gas prices had risen 214% on average.
Estonia had experienced the steepest increase in energy prices overall with household prices for electricity and natural gas rising 323% and 559% respectively.

https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/blog/energy-prices-europe

[Bushdark]

Recession is everywhere but it's just that many countries try to keep the news from the public whereby making life hard for the masses. I hope things will get better soon with the way I'm seeing it, it might take a longer time for most of the problems the world is facing to be able to vanish or settle down coupled with the war between Russia and Ukraine which is making the price of grain and food stuffs to keep increasing in price because of scarcity and inadequate supply. Every countries of the world is facing this problem of inflation and we hope  things will get better with time.

[mvdheuvel1983]

Almost 10 years ago, there was a recession and now another recession. Enough of the problems. What are the solutions. What can individuals and the government of the Netherlands do to salvage the situation which they have found themselves in right now. Is is to+
For individuals get more sources of income, save money, buy Bitcoin, and other assets?
For the government, print more money, reduce interest rate, buy bonds, them acting as the lender's last resort ?

[DrBeer]

What's so surprising about this news ? It is a "normal" indicator for most countries in today's period of global economic crisis. It was laid by the pandemic Covid-19, and even if people in a certain country did not get sick en masse - the WORLD economy suffered very seriously. And given the high level of integration of many countries in the world economy, they also become participants of the global crisis.
Well and the second question - 0.3% is a noticeable but not critical indicator, and if you take the average economic indicators for the last 2 years for the Netherlands, their indicators will be noticeably better than many other countries.

Hungary is an example. In addition to the real problems in the economy, which have been going on for a long time, the country is constantly demanding huge financial aid from the EU, instead of solving internal problems. This is a really problematic country against the background of the Netherlands.

[DaveF]

Or, is it because people now have a reason to save money so instead of spending it on stuff, they are sticking it into interest earning accounts.

When interest rates for savings type accounts were sub 1% it's easy to say screw it and spend instead of saving it.
Now savings is at over 5% a lot of people are thinking I'll put off that larger purchase and make some money.

It's interesting to see it here in the US. There is a certain portion of the population who believes that current high interest rates are killing the housing market because nobody wants to pay that much interest on a mortgage. Then there are the people who understand that a large amount of housing was bought as an investment and now if you have the cash to buy a house you MIGHT make 7% to 10% a year. But there is risk involved. Or you can make 5.25% by clicking a few buttons and opening a CD.  [ https://alto.bmo.com/en-us/high-yield-cd ]

The counter argument is that if inflation is at 6% and your savings is at 5.25% you are loosing money.
But, inflation is really a lot lower then that since there were a lot of prices that were distorted due to covid that are just now stabilizing. But it's tough to get a real number. Case in point since I am dealing with it.

Is fiber optic cable REALLY 30% more then it was in 2019? Well, yes sticker price it is. And if you walk in off the street into a lot of places it is. But, order more then $100 and get 25% off your cable order at a lot of places. Hmmmm. So it's not up, you just want me to buy more.....

Heck it even goes to cookies [the eating kind not the browser kind] the ones I eat are WAY WAY WAY up in price. As in 35%+ if you walk in and buy them.
EVERY WEEK AS IN EVERY WEEK NOT MOST BUT 15 OUT OF THE LAST 15 WEEKS. There is a coupon or sale at one of the local food stores that puts the cost  BELOW what I paid in 2017.  Yes I keep and scan just every receipt. So are they up in price or are stores just making a cash grab because they can? And, I don't blame them for that. It's their job to make as much money from consumers as they can.

-Dave

[Wind_FURY]

We have been scared of a recession for so long that we can hardly believe it anymore. A technical recession is some kind of imaginary recession. I am sure that soon the news background will change - and in the short term, speculators, as always, will be on the plus side and alarmists will be on the big minus side.

Imaginary? No it's not, ser. There's nothing imaginary about a country's GDP going down for two consecutive quarters. What it should really be is a warning that people should start saving and put some of their savings in safe haven assets like Bitcoin because inflation is still high. It's not really a "technical recession", it's Stagflation. That should make people worry more.

[DrBeer]

The easy answer for alot of Europe is energy costs, unless that nation has alot of oil or gas.   Apart from Romania and Norway I cant think any of them have good access to energy.  France perhaps has nuclear but even then their main power provider is suing the government for forcing them to make a loss.     So energy in turn makes everything more expensive, food and retail of many goods is easily going to rise if transport costs more.
  Simple causes of inflation are of course excess money availability but also that supply of goods is in any way impaired.   The Euro fell from any strength its had making imports more expensive generally.   Netherlands is still a wealthy country but we are talking percentage changes, its been impeded for 2 quarters.
  Long term ECB like the FED and other big central banks are juggling too much debt, that will matter as it creates certain excess supply of currency to pay for that debt.  Fiscal budgets are in deficit also, again loose policy.   It will be true for a decade, currency loses money and I think for even longer the debt is 30 years or more and nobody wants to repay it.

What energy problem are you talking about ?
If we talk about gas supplies to the EU - this problem is already solved, yes, gas is still a bit more expensive than it was 3 years ago, but the price is constantly decreasing, the restructuring and diversification of gas supplies to the EU is coming to an end. There is no critical shortage... Moreover, the measures taken in the EU to optimize gas consumption have completely offset the risks of gas supply interruption from Russia.
Everything else, including electricity, has also fallen sharply in price, which you can easily check - the data is open. If we talk about the "locomotive" of the European economy, Germany, there are excellent indicators there - a noticeable decrease in unemployment, a resumption of industrial production, as well as medium and small businesses, and an increase in tax revenues.

[Casdinyard]

What's up with European countries falling ill lately? Are these connected or isolated ones?

With the way things are going on the west you'd expect the US to fall face first before the rest of the planet, considering their piss-low recession's been marinating on its seat for years now, not to mention the pressure that the east is putting the rest of the world under by means of economical warfare. All of a sudden we find out Turkey's falling into despair, the war on Ukraine's still ongoing but now Russia's completely scraping by as even their mercenary for hires kicked them to the curb, and then we got here Netherlands falling ill on some sort of stagflation which is really depressing.

Amidst this I feel like Iceland's going to be the remaining country in the planet that's not afflicted with any sort of economical sickness lol.

[Wind_FURY]

What's up with European countries falling ill lately? Are these connected or isolated ones?

The European Central Bank has been doing some rate hikes/tightening of their own to control inflation. A recession is a side-effect.

With the way things are going on the west you'd expect the US to fall face first before the rest of the planet, considering their piss-low recession's been marinating on its seat for years now, not to mention the pressure that the east is putting the rest of the world under by means of economical warfare. All of a sudden we find out Turkey's falling into despair, the war on Ukraine's still ongoing but now Russia's completely scraping by as even their mercenary for hires kicked them to the curb, and then we got here Netherlands falling ill on some sort of stagflation which is really depressing.

There were people who were called "alarmists" when they started saying that a major financial crisis was coming during 2005 - 2006. The actual crisis didn't start until 2007 - 2008. Patience and save money. Another golden opportunity might be coming.

 

Amidst this I feel like Iceland's going to be the remaining country in the planet that's not afflicted with any sort of economical sickness lol.

They're not immune from the "sickness". DYOR on Icelandic Financial Crisis when the value of the Krona went down against the Euro by 35% and banks started to fail.

[Fortify]

A "technical recession" is formally announced when a country's GDP falls for two consecutive quarters. The Dutch GDP fell by -0.4% during the first quarter, followed by another fall of 0.3%, bringing it into a technical recession by the official defintion.

But it's not techncially a recession. It's worse, it's actually Stagflation because inflation is also high sitting at 6.0%. They probably don't want the general public to know what caused the Stagflation and keep blaming it on the "supply side" of things.

https://think.ing.com/snaps/the-netherlands-in-technical-recession/

Another country, Hungary, has also announced to be going through the longest "technical recession".

https://think.ing.com/snaps/longest-technical-recession-on-record-in-hungary/

But like the situation in the Netherlands, Hungary's inflation is very high at 20%. That's true Stagflation - a time when the monetary and economic systems are out of control.

Who is this "they" who "don't want the general public to know"? In free societies, unlike in places like Russia and China, information is readily available from all sorts of different sources for anyone that goes looking for knowledge. Recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle and you'd have to be pretty dumb to think that they are not or that it's shameful to be in one, only people who sap up rubbish from leaders like Putin or Xi Jinping would fall for this mistake. Inflation is happening in varying levels in countries all around the world, so again it is nothing special to be happening in the Netherlands and is actually a pretty normal situation to be facing right now, that will recover.