Impact of bitcoin price speculations on individual bitcoin holding

[fuguebtc]

I'm not directly buying Bitcoin myself; instead, I rely on signature campaign payments and never cash out a single Satoshi. Payments are made on a weekly basis, and due to some personal stuff going on now, I've missed a week or two. However, despite me not buying Bitcoin myself, this is still a form of DCA, because I could potentially withdraw every payment that went through. If I was in a dire financial situation and needed the money, then I guess I'd be forced to do it.

The last time I checked, my DCA, or average purchase price, was approximately $28,000, which means that I'm at a loss now. Although I don't find it significant enough to bother me, In my opinion, a decent average purchase price is somewhere between $24,000 and $25,000, which isn't too low nor too high to not be presented with great opportunities in the future. Unfortunately, even though I was in the Bitcoin scene quite early, I didn't have the chance to own Bitcoin when its value was significantly lower.

Accumulating bitcoins from signature campaign payments isn't too bad if you haven't sold any bitcoins yet. But why don't you buy bitcoin directly? I mean, we're in bear season and with many big drops like bitcoin down to $15k, it's a great time to buy bitcoin on the cheap. Since I think the opportunity to buy cheap bitcoin under 20k is not too much, we should take advantage of every opportunity we get. Just like many people were scared when they saw bitcoin plummet so did not dare to buy, and now they have to buy at a much higher price.

I honestly could have purchased but did not, as I don't have a stable income at the moment and will not have for at least two more months and possibly even more, apart from signature campaigns and another minor source, which isn't enough, especially if you consider that signature campaign earnings strictly remain in my wallet untouched till the market recovers. Thus, at least for now, I prefer not to use any of my own money towards such investments because that would be risky and reckless. I have savings that are enough, so I could justify an investment; I'm not currently struggling, but as I mentioned earlier, I don't have a viable income. Thus, I prefer to play it safe and avoid using my own money, at least until I can afford to spend more without depleting my savings.

I'm possibly going to regret it in the long run because Bitcoin is quite affordable at the moment and the capabilities of a 100% yield are extremely plausible in the next year.

That sounds pretty sad, but you are correct in making the choice not to invest directly in bitcoin when there is no steady income. I support your decision. You have chosen the safe option, unlike some people even though they do not have a stable income or are unemployed and they think of borrowing money to invest in bitcoin. Although success requires trade-offs, it is important to consider the risks we may take, not to take risks blindly and foolishly.

If circumstances don't allow you to invest then I don't think you need to regret it because as long as bitcoin is around, the opportunity will still be with us.

[michellee]

When you have chosen the DCA approach to accumulate Bitcoin, that means you choose to regularly invest in Bitcoin, regardless of what the price is on the market, assuming the price of Bitcoin is still at a price that makes sense for you to buy. For example, the current Bitcoin price is in the $20k-$30k range, so that is the price you can buy.

As long as the price is still in that price range, you will still be doing DCA every week or month. But when the price goes to $ 30k- $ 40k, you have to rearrange the strategy but you may still do DCA every week. At least that's what I did with a small capital to collect Bitcoin.

And because your selling target is long term, you don't need to worry about price movements. If it's still within that price range, you can continue the DCA until you feel you have enough Bitcoin or it's time to hold on and wait for the Bitcoin price to increase. But DCA strategy varies from one person to another and there are differences in the use of capital too. So as long as you still feel capable of doing DCA, just do it. But if you start feeling inadequate, it's better to stop doing DCA and look for other ways.

[Ojima-ojo]

When you have chosen the DCA approach to accumulate Bitcoin, that means you choose to regularly invest in Bitcoin, regardless of what the price is on the market, assuming the price of Bitcoin is still at a price that makes sense for you to buy. For example, the current Bitcoin price is in the $20k-$30k range, so that is the price you can buy.

The best DCA approach os to buy at the lower level and sell at the top of the price, it not good to buy at the top because doing so will affect your overall DCA strategy since you will eventually be at lose in the shot while when the price of bitcoin will nose dive to correct the market at that point.

And more also DCA approach is a parallel market approach and doesn't face one direction of buying Bitcoin alon but also you need to do both ways to get the best out of the approach which is buying and selling gaving DCA as you tool at every moment of action.

As long as the price is still in that price range, you will still be doing DCA every week or month. But when the price goes to $ 30k- $ 40k, you have to rearrange the strategy but you may still do DCA every week. At least that's what I did with a small capital to collect Bitcoin.

Yea using smaller amount to DCA when price is relatively high is a good approach, at least you will nkt be left behind when if the price of Bitcoin continues to rise and also you will not be in too much lose if the price correct back suddenly.

And because your selling target is long-term, you don't need to worry about price movements. If it's still within that price range, you can continue the DCA until you feel you have enough Bitcoin or it's time to hold on and wait for the Bitcoin price to increase. But DCA strategy varies from one person to another and there are differences in the use of capital too. So as long as you still feel capable of doing DCA, just do it. But if you start feeling inadequate, it's better to stop doing DCA and look for other ways.

DCA approach is best for the long term only if you are approaching the market from the Bitcoin accumulation journey, This is long-term based and the approach will help you in collecting enough bitcoin in the long run.


But also we have some bitcoin speculators, a trader who uses the DCA approach to analyse and deal on the market price at each point by buying low and selling high.

[Odohu]

The best DCA approach os to buy at the lower level and sell at the top of the price, it not good to buy at the top because doing so will affect your overall DCA strategy since you will eventually be at lose in the shot while when the price of bitcoin will nose dive to correct the market at that point.

Is there any way to truly know the top? When people make comments about selling at the top and buying  at the bottom for a trending market, it always sound like complex to me because market can give several supposed tops within a short period. 

Furthermore,  I don't know the approach other people uses but to me the best is to sell Bitcoin strictly base on needs and not because I want to make quick profit. Although I am holding for long so my approach might be a kind of different from others. With DCA, I wouldn't want to sell to replenish later as there are high chances that when you sell, you will never replenish your portfolio to the Bitcoin quantity you sold off.

[Baofeng]

The best DCA approach os to buy at the lower level and sell at the top of the price, it not good to buy at the top because doing so will affect your overall DCA strategy since you will eventually be at lose in the shot while when the price of bitcoin will nose dive to correct the market at that point.

Is there any way to truly know the top? When people make comments about selling at the top and buying  at the bottom for a trending market, it always sound like complex to me because market can give several supposed tops within a short period. 

None, there is no way for us to know the top, and for that matter, the bottom price. That's why if we know TA, it could help us a bit. But there are a lot of factors to look at and maybe the best approach for us know where to sell is to weight everything on your end.

Furthermore,  I don't know the approach other people uses but to me the best is to sell Bitcoin strictly base on needs and not because I want to make quick profit. Although I am holding for long so my approach might be a kind of different from others. With DCA, I wouldn't want to sell to replenish later as there are high chances that when you sell, you will never replenish your portfolio to the Bitcoin quantity you sold off.

And that's why we always say invest what you can afford to lose. I mean if you need the money, yeah you can sell it the best time that you think. But if you are here for the long run, maybe at least one bear/bull cycle, then it could really benefit you from seeing huge profits specially when you sell at about the peak of the bull run. Or even if you sold when the price is going down, I still think you can make profits as long as the selling point is on the bull run.

[Ojima-ojo]

The best DCA approach os to buy at the lower level and sell at the top of the price, it not good to buy at the top because doing so will affect your overall DCA strategy since you will eventually be at lose in the shot while when the price of bitcoin will nose dive to correct the market at that point.

Is there any way to truly know the top? When people make comments about selling at the top and buying  at the bottom for a trending market, it always sound like complex to me because market can give several supposed tops within a short period. 

When we say selling at the top, it doesn't necessarily mean that a generally accepted top, because the market is dynamic and at that, what may be a top price for you, can be the botom price for another so it all depends on our individual  poistion to determine what we can call top price.


Some people bought bitcoin when the price was below 15k abd that is a pretty low pruce and at the moment were bitcoin is priced above 25k such Bitcoin investor will be at gain by now,  so to such investor now is the top price and if ge dexide to cashout gis Bitcoin,  he already cashing out at top price.

Furthermore,  I don't know the approach other people uses but to me the best is to sell Bitcoin strictly base on needs and not because I want to make quick profit. Although I am holding for a long so my approach might be a kind of different from others. With DCA, I wouldn't want to sell to replenish later as there are high chances that when you sell, you will never replenish your portfolio to the Bitcoin quantity you sold off.

Since you already stated that you are a long term Bitcoin holder, i won't make much emphasis on the part where you said we should sell Bitcoin only when there is a need, but not because of the profits such an approach may be wrong since you invested in Bitcoin with the sole aim of making profits, anything aside that then means you will be systematically shortchanging yourself on the long run.

[OgNasty]

Absolutely nothing stops my DCA accumulation. I am not trying to time the market and definitely don’t trade, even though it would have historically been extremely profitable to do so. Price speculation is mostly for fun and to keep a handle on the goings on in the market so that you can recognize multi-year peaks and valleys.

[dansus021]

I think if you are a long-term HODLER just buy DCA and forgetting about the price as long the price is not ATH yet and add more if reach ATL but bitcoin will never reach atl hahhah so just bought it and forget it and if you have money just buy again and only sell when new ATH reach

[kro55]

Furthermore,  I don't know the approach other people uses but to me the best is to sell Bitcoin strictly base on needs and not because I want to make quick profit. Although I am holding for a long so my approach might be a kind of different from others. With DCA, I wouldn't want to sell to replenish later as there are high chances that when you sell, you will never replenish your portfolio to the Bitcoin quantity you sold off.

Since you already stated that you are a long term Bitcoin holder, i won't make much emphasis on the part where you said we should sell Bitcoin only when there is a need, but not because of the profits such an approach may be wrong since you invested in Bitcoin with the sole aim of making profits, anything aside that then means you will be systematically shortchanging yourself on the long run.

Invest in bitcoin and will only sell when there is a need, I think this is only for people who buy bitcoin at very low prices or who have become rich to suit this method. For ordinary investors like us who want to profit from bitcoin it is a bad idea. In my opinion, buying at a high price is not important as long as we still make a profit from it. Many people are afraid to sell bitcoin because they think they have to buy it back at a high price compared to the previous price. It is a misconception because this is a financial market and prices will always fluctuate so there will always be opportunities for us to buy low and sell high. As long as bitcoin still has plenty of upside potential in the future and remains profitable, there's nothing wrong with selling and buying back afterward.

[Davian144]

Is there any way to truly know the top? When people make comments about selling at the top and buying  at the bottom for a trending market, it always sound like complex to me because market can give several supposed tops within a short period. 

For peak prices that have not occurred, it will always be difficult for everyone to know, even though everyone has a certain grid to predict peak prices and bottom prices. Because it not only sounds complicated to you, but maybe to some other people it also sounds very complicated. Because if it could be easier for everyone to know, then fewer people would complain about this because almost everyone would find it easier to become rich.

Furthermore,  I don't know the approach other people uses but to me the best is to sell Bitcoin strictly base on needs and not because I want to make quick profit. Although I am holding for long so my approach might be a kind of different from others. With DCA, I wouldn't want to sell to replenish later as there are high chances that when you sell, you will never replenish your portfolio to the Bitcoin quantity you sold off.

Everyone does have a very different approach in anything, including things like this. Because every approach you take always has a clearer goal and one of them is about profit and I think the approach you take is not so bad because you will only sell Bitcoin when you need something that you may not be able to postpone. But it would be even better if you have other income for things you need so it won't interfere with the Bitcoin you have bought with the DCA method, because something like this can also save your own portfolio in the long term.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

So my question is, what has been the impact of Bitcoin market speculation on your Bitcoin/DCA approach on the Bitcoin accumulation journey?

I have never let myself get carried away too much by speculation, because my thing is long-term investment, which, strictly speaking is also speculation, because I speculate that investing in bitcoin in the long term will give me more profits and less headaches than doing it in the short term, and that in the long term the price will continue to rise.

What happens is that we tend to understand speculation as something short term, to buy or sell depending on whether you think it is going to go up or down, and I don't get carried away by that.

[Yamane_Keto]

So my question is, what has been the impact of Bitcoin market speculation on your Bitcoin/DCA approach on the Bitcoin accumulation journey?

The main goal of Dollar Cost Averaging Bitcoin is to benefit from speculation by making the average purchase price of Bitcoin low.  if we assume that you started from 2020 with DCA $100/weekly, you will find that the average purchase is ~ $30,000, while your Total Invested is $20,900, and so on during the coming years. This average would be $70,000.



If you notice, it is rarely below Total Invested on the 4-year scale and close to Bitcoin's previous ATH

[michellee]

When you have chosen the DCA approach to accumulate Bitcoin, that means you choose to regularly invest in Bitcoin, regardless of what the price is on the market, assuming the price of Bitcoin is still at a price that makes sense for you to buy. For example, the current Bitcoin price is in the $20k-$30k range, so that is the price you can buy.

The best DCA approach os to buy at the lower level and sell at the top of the price, it not good to buy at the top because doing so will affect your overall DCA strategy since you will eventually be at lose in the shot while when the price of bitcoin will nose dive to correct the market at that point.

And more also DCA approach is a parallel market approach and doesn't face one direction of buying Bitcoin alon but also you need to do both ways to get the best out of the approach which is buying and selling gaving DCA as you tool at every moment of action.

Indeed, it is the best DCA approach. But no one knows when the price will be at the bottom level. But if you refer to buying at the lower level and selling at the upper price, that's not a DCA strategy. That is trading.

Whereas DCA, as far as I know, is investing for a certain period, for example, 1 year, and you set to buy every week or month with the same amount of money for 1 year. So whatever Bitcoin price is when you buy, that is the price you get. If you average it, your average purchase price will probably be smaller. The goal of investing in Bitcoin is to collect as much Bitcoin as possible and not to sell it again soon.

As long as the price is still in that price range, you will still be doing DCA every week or month. But when the price goes to $ 30k- $ 40k, you have to rearrange the strategy but you may still do DCA every week. At least that's what I did with a small capital to collect Bitcoin.

Yea using smaller amount to DCA when price is relatively high is a good approach, at least you will nkt be left behind when if the price of Bitcoin continues to rise and also you will not be in too much lose if the price correct back suddenly.

DCA's approach is not to chase price increases but we routinely buy Bitcoin using the same amount of money every week or every month. And it also has nothing to do with changing market prices because you only focus on collecting Bitcoins.

And because your selling target is long-term, you don't need to worry about price movements. If it's still within that price range, you can continue the DCA until you feel you have enough Bitcoin or it's time to hold on and wait for the Bitcoin price to increase. But DCA strategy varies from one person to another and there are differences in the use of capital too. So as long as you still feel capable of doing DCA, just do it. But if you start feeling inadequate, it's better to stop doing DCA and look for other ways.

DCA approach is best for the long term only if you are approaching the market from the Bitcoin accumulation journey, This is long-term based and the approach will help you in collecting enough bitcoin in the long run.

But also we have some bitcoin speculators, a trader who uses the DCA approach to analyse and deal on the market price at each point by buying low and selling high.

You are not depending on Bitcoin speculators if you take the DCA approach. Your target lies not in price changes but in Bitcoin accumulation. By accumulating Bitcoin by buying Bitcoin every week or month, you can have more Bitcoin and not be selling it anytime soon. That's distinctly different from trading, where you buy low and sell high.

[KingsDen]

So my question is, what has been the impact of Bitcoin market speculation on your Bitcoin/DCA approach on the Bitcoin accumulation journey?

I have never let myself get carried away too much by speculation, because my thing is long-term investment, which, strictly speaking is also speculation, because I speculate that investing in bitcoin in the long term will give me more profits and less headaches than doing it in the short term, and that in the long term the price will continue to rise.

What happens is that we tend to understand speculation as something short term, to buy or sell depending on whether you think it is going to go up or down, and I don't get carried away by that.

Bitcoin price speculation does not have any effect or impact on my dollar cost averaging pattern of investing in Bitcoin. This is because I do not pay attention to the price of Bitcoin while doing my weekly dollar cost averaging investment. It does not matter to me the price of Bitcoin whenever I want to buy because it is a consistent DCA.

I will continue to buy with the dollar cost averaging method until when the Bitcoin price is 50,000 dollars. That is when I will stop buying, in as much as the price is below 50000 dollars, I will continue the dollar cost averaging investment until after bull run or during the bull run. Knowing the the ATH of bitcoin is 69k, should give us the conviction to continue DCA even at $50k.

[yudi09]

-snip-

For sure the market price is just full of speculation and its actually why the market price skyrocket because investors are speculating that the market price is going to reach like for example 100k$ if that specualtion circulate online that could easily trigger the market especially if there are a lot of evidence that it might be throught something like the Bitcoin halving.

DCA becomes a method of asset ownership activities because it is considered to reach the situation or reach the financial capabilities of investors both in weekly or monthly.
Speculation for most of the investors is an interesting effort to do. Although all can speculate on market prices, but not all dare to provide speculation. It means that only certain circles have a dare to speculate even though the increase and price decline cannot be ascertained.

One thing that is certain that so far, buying routine is the best strategy for Bitcoin's ownership according to my version.
Although the statement of buying is cheap and selling high is an easy thing to say, it becomes the most difficult thing in its application.

[Sim_card]

Price speculation is not 100% correct but it can give one an insight on how to plan on his bitcoin journey and which strategy that he can use to accumulate more bitcoin. I prefer the DCA method,either when the price is high or at dip,because as a long term holder that doesn't want to make profit for short term, DCA will always give you the best benefit. This is because when you buy in any of the market,you steady DCA will balance up your loss when the price goes below when you bought. Although, buying at the dip is a way to accumulate at a discount price but you wouldn't see this coming.

[darewaller]

Price speculation is not 100% correct but it can give one an insight on how to plan on his bitcoin journey and which strategy that he can use to accumulate more bitcoin. I prefer the DCA method,either when the price is high or at dip,because as a long term holder that doesn't want to make profit for short term, DCA will always give you the best benefit. This is because when you buy in any of the market,you steady DCA will balance up your loss when the price goes below when you bought. Although, buying at the dip is a way to accumulate at a discount price but you wouldn't see this coming.

That is true, if we do speculation then we could also make a trade or investment. Without speculation there is no investment or trade. If we think it will go up, we buy, we could buy it for short term or long term depending on our speculation but we still buy due to speculating the fact that we think it will go up, and if we think it will go down the same happens but this time about selling bitcoin, either for short term or long term.

In both cases, we speculated the future price of bitcoin and that is why it's very important to keep doing that in order to keep on buying or selling. Without speculation, there is no bitcoin, it would have no volume at all and it would not be liked by anyone and wouldn't be here.

[yhiaali3]

Speculation has a clear impact on Bitcoin/DCA in my experience, often there is a temptation when the price of Bitcoin rises that I would sell to make some profits, but later I regret it when the price continues to rise.

Other times, when the trend is down, I sell to buy from the bottom, but unexpected behavior occurs and the price of Bitcoin rises, and I regret it again.

So I finally decided to stay away from indicators and continue with the Bitcoin/DCA strategy for the long term regardless of speculation and market volatility.

[ShowOff]

One thing that is certain that so far, buying routine is the best strategy for Bitcoin's ownership according to my version.
Although the statement of buying is cheap and selling high is an easy thing to say, it becomes the most difficult thing in its application.

I don't fully understand what you mean by regular purchases, but buying consistently for accumulation purposes is certainly recommended. Apart from that, you also need to pay attention to the market to know when it's time to buy, of course many people recommend that you buy on the dip. Accumulate as much as you can, but make sure that you really do the analysis before doing it.

Speculation doesn't make me change much about how I buy or accumulate, but market conditions are something I can take advantage of. Almost every correction can be used for accumulation, but I never force the desire to be close to consistent.

[ginsan]

So my question is, what has been the impact of Bitcoin market speculation on your Bitcoin/DCA approach on the Bitcoin accumulation journey?

The big impact is when they stop buying because they run out of money and If they have a reserve level or USDT savings in their portfolio of course they can make purchases when prices fall. BTC has been below $30k this week so many of them are expecting a bigger drop to buy bitcoin but for those of us who buy every week of course we don't care if Bitcoin goes down again or goes up because we will still buy every week.

But some of those who are really geniuses in analyzing market movements will certainly be able to enter the buying stage instantly when they have found a decision to buy at that price. But I think the BTC price in September will experience a big strengthening of the increase because we are also tired of seeing this sideway condition.