And this is one thing I would like to point out, it's no longer 1900 and not 1970, you can't compare the spread the penetration of cars and the internet with embracing a bunch of code that takes no manufacturing, no distribution and furthermore no accessibility problems.
I'm not exactly sure what you're talking about. But if you actually want to point out difficulty of hard fork, that could be avoided by another soft fork which increase witness discount.
It was related to the timeframe in making a change, and how easily it can be done compared to everyone getting a smartphone now or buying his first washing machine in the 60's. That's why 2-5 years might not sound like much but in this age it might be too late. Again, might!, as I have no crystal ball, just my pessimism right now on full throttle!
To overpower the network right now you need around 4 million S19pro, each was sold at 2k, so that's 8 billion.
I clearly remember Michael Saylor saying on Twitter that you need 250 billion $ of ASICs and 4 years to manufacture them (and chances are in 4 years from now the hashrate will be 4 times higher, so more like 1 trillion $ by then and starting from scratch).
Unless he doesn't know what he's talking about, even though he's the biggest BTC hodler so far.
You don't have to believe me, you can believe math:
Last average hahsrate >
387.57 EH/sOne exahash is 1,000,000 Th/s.
One S19Pro capable of doing 100Th/s is
1,950 $/UnitSo you need 3.8 million x $1950, that's $7.4 billion!
The $250 billion number is just ridiculous, based on the current daily reward ($26,326,734.21) it will take 10 000 days, so ~ 30 years to recover the investment.
Also, the BTC blockchain is already over 500GB with 1MB blocks, so 20MB blocks would inflate it to 10TB over time. Are you sure a 10TB SSD costs €300?
SAMSUNG 870 QVO SATA III SSD 8TB 2.5" - $369.58 on Amazon.
Almost fits 20 x 420 000 (two halvings) of blocks, I think is enough.
20 times more block space probably wouldn't be enough for global adoption (if that's what you envision).
Of course not, I'm not for having everything on the mainchain, but since we're at this point, how long it will take for let's say everyone in California alone to open and close one LN channel if we keep these blocks? Now if we would assume the same userbase as Visa...oh, better not!
A blockchain with 20MB which would give the same 20 times capacity would generate the need for a 300euros evo ssd in 10 years!
Let's work on these numbers. 20 MB with 10 minute interval means 144 * 20 = 2880 MB added per day. That's 2.88 GB, and as of
June 2023, that would be about $0.08 * 2.88 = $0.23 cost added everyday. Annually, that's about $84. How did you work out 300 EUR, to me it's $840 if SSD's price remains the same.
2.88 GB a day > 1 TB a year > 10 TB in ten years assuming that blocks will be from the start full, which is not going to happen so I allowed myself to believe it will be only 75% of that, so fitting in an 8tb drive.
You have above the SSD at $369 and we're talking about an evo which is more expensive than others.
I don't understand why you took the 8 cents per GB since in the same article you have ssd with 4 cents per gb.
