Using Statistical Data to Win Sports Betting Picks

[kamvreto]

If we only rely on statistical data to make decisions so we can win bets, this is a rather reckless action. And indeed, taking risks is something that is inherent in every bet. The same is true for sports betting. If we only base our choices on statistical analysis, then this will only bring us closer to defeat. And even if someone wins a bet by only relying on statistical data, I consider it just luck.
Each bet must be made with care and only with funds that you are prepared to lose. A good analysis must be carried out to make the right decision.

Relying only on statistical data can be reckless and risky, but statistical data will provide a lot of information about how the players are, what the weather conditions are like, and much more supporting data so that we can conclude which team is stronger and superior during the match.
Using statistical data to win sports betting can be a smart strategy. But of course the element of luck is also one of the determinants of winning in sports betting, there will be no strategy or method that provides a 100% chance of winning.

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[Slow death]

I always tell myself that in sports betting, data is worth gold, just like the news, for example when I analyze a soccer game, I look at the h2h and who plays at home and who plays away from home, then I start looking for which team has done well in the last 5 games and which team has played well in the last 5 games, I also look at the squad and the coach and the injury history of each player and how the team reacts to the absence of each very important player, also analyze the formation of the team, for me this is a very important part of the formation of the team and its squad, I avoid making multibet bets because I don't know who will be present on the day of the game

even if I collect all the data, even if many news sites keep saying that the Z team will be the favorite and the bookmakers are giving advantage to the Z team, I still don't like it and I'm not convinced that betting on the Z team without seeing the squad that will play is a good option, that's why I avoid making multi bets and also betting on the pre-match while they still haven't released the list of players that will play, it's true that in many times the odds drop a lot when they are released list of players who will play, but I'd rather have that odds disadvantage than betting on a game in which I don't know who will play, a team is only great when it has good players, that is what makes a great team are the players

That's why it's necessary to see the players who will play, the data is good, but only when they are confirmed with the squad that will be on the field playing. I also don't bet on games with low odds because they are not profitable in the long term.

[Fortify]

1. Choose stats based on the bet

Sounds simple enough, but a lot of times, we don’t study the right stats. For example, let’s say we’re thinking of betting over or under an MLB pitcher prop.

The total is 10.5 strikeouts. The most important stat to study isn’t how many strikeouts the pitcher averages, but how many strikeouts the pitcher has had versus today’s opponent.

We must take it even further for the stats to be more relevant. How many strike outs has the pitcher had versus today’s playing opponents. Baseball players don’t play ever day. They often do, but not all the time and turnover happens a lot in a 162 game season.

Always think of and choose relevant stats based on the wager.

2. Look at relevant stats in relation to each other

We can continue with our MLB pitcher example to illustrate the second most important use of stats on our list. But let’s switch it up.

Let’s talk about an NFL against the spread bet. Suppose Team A is -3.5 to cover the spread against Team B.

You determine the most important stat is Team A’s ability to pass the ball. Team A ranks second in passing yards per game. Ah, but after looking at Team B’s passing defense stat, you realize Team B is excellent defending against the pass.

Do you ditch the bet? Not necessarily. What if you see that Team A’s RB1 averages 5.4 yards per carry? Now what do you do?

The most relevant stat in a situation like this isn’t even a stat. It’s the head coaches and offensive coordinators ability to change strategy depending on the opponent. So if the HC and OC are willing to lean on the rushing attack to open up the passing attack, your bet on Team A might still be a good play.

3. Use trends to support or deny the validity of statistical information

Let’s say you see that the head coach and offensive coordinator have leaned on the passing attack in every game of the season. They leaned on the passing attack last season.

That doesn’t mean they won’t change the strategy for this particular game. But it does mean the chances of the two changing the strategy isn’t great.

So you could be making a losing bet. Stats may be valid overall, the Bills did average over 28 points per game last season, but may not be valid for every game, the Bills also scored less than 28 in 7-of-17 regular season games.

There is definitely a lot to be said about using statistics and looking for unusual correlations that bookmakers might have missed, however they'll always be learning - especially if you start hitting big money with a new found combination. Doing it consistently can also be hard to prove, because natural variance can make something look successful the first five times and then it may fail the 15 times after that, how much money do you pour into it before you decide to cut and run? A good one that I came across in the past was when a team is 2 goals ahead to nil by half time, there was an extremely high chance that they would end up winning. Seems like an obvious metric, but finding the highest paying odds can also make a difference.. between a 1.03 or a 1.09 at different sportbooks.

[Saint-loup]

I think statistical data should never be treated reliable in sports betting. Especially with sports involving 10-20 people its sometimes up to their concentration/mentality etc. Statistics can help you as subsidiary support to your bet. I mean you could be familiar with both teams in a football match and pick a bit but after check if stats support it. But using stats only would result in instant losses in my opinion.

Using stats only would result in instant losses in your opinion? You are kidding I guess. How do you evaluate the chances of a team to beat another one without looking at stats? I don't understand. You just watch few matches of those teams on TV, and you are able to guess their chances to win against each other? Or you are just listening and reading what some famous commentators are saying? How are you able to know the level of concentration/mentality of each players (or at least the main ones) before the start of the match btw? Are you able to win something at the end with this strategy?  

[LUCKMCFLY]

I do not doubt the power of mathematics, statistics and mathematical modeling, personally I believe in that much more than anything else, we can do many analyzes from the beginning of all the games that have been presented, personally I would think that Statistics can be good for trying to give good predictions and be able to have a good basis on what the future will be like, however to base ourselves on statistics and probabilities we have to take into consideration many common factors, because now things can go differently. different directions, games, sports do not maintain the same direction as before, now things can change from one moment to the next, there are star players who at one time were not considered, and did not make a difference, now there are many very good players That if they make a difference and that they can do a lot, I have always considered one thing, now there are players who are much more defined as those who can make a difference in any sport, now when we make a break we know that here in the forum There is a lot of talk about this, and I think I saw a thread here where it was talked about, where usually things can be very focused on making a difference. If the team has a lot of stars, it is more likely that they can win, of course, if we see it. From a different point of view, we have the case of PSG that was a team that had the 3 best strikers in the world, and even so they did not achieve a single UCL, so these things are the ones that depend directly on a technical director who is not there. At the same time, the story is very different as it has been at Real Madrid where they have always been used to having many stars and being winners.

So when there are many stars in a team it is unlikely that they will have a great victory, or that they will have the moment or the most star athlete and they can win everything too, as is the case of Barcelona the time Dinho was there and also in the case of Messi, great players who in the end were never valued by their club.

[Agbe]

Statistical data help sometimes but most of the times they are worthless as the teams change over time,what a team with a certain level of players achieved in last years does not mean that they will achieve the same with different players after the old players have moved away from such team and I am talking about soccer here as a team although this is true for any other collective sports.

The statistical data can be really helpful in one vs one games like tennis for example as the big guys here rarely lose against weaker opponents which is much different compared to collective sports like soccer or basketball where surprise results happen a lot.

If statistics is used in football the gambler will loss out  because the substitutions will affect the analysis of the game to be won unless the coach did not make any substitutions. As you said, using data analysis to predict a odd or game can only work in tennis and boxing and not for football. Football game is to cumbersome to use statistics data to play. Unless after the game then you can use it to analyse and break down the game and not before the game. And one thing is that, the players are humans and not robot so their performance also changes, so of we use the past to judge the present and the future then we will make a lot of mistakes. Therefore we should not use statistics data analysis to play game.

[topbitcoin]

If we only rely on statistical data to make decisions so we can win bets, this is a rather reckless action. And indeed, taking risks is something that is inherent in every bet. The same is true for sports betting. If we only base our choices on statistical analysis, then this will only bring us closer to defeat. And even if someone wins a bet by only relying on statistical data, I consider it just luck.
Each bet must be made with care and only with funds that you are prepared to lose. A good analysis must be carried out to make the right decision.

Relying only on statistical data can be reckless and risky, but statistical data will provide a lot of information about how the players are, what the weather conditions are like, and much more supporting data so that we can conclude which team is stronger and superior during the match.
Using statistical data to win sports betting can be a smart strategy. But of course the element of luck is also one of the determinants of winning in sports betting, there will be no strategy or method that provides a 100% chance of winning.

There's nothing wrong if you just use statistical data to determine your betting choices. However, it would be better if you didn't just take one factor (statistical data) to use as material for match analysis. Look for some other information to increase your chances of getting a bet and remember that when betting on sports, make sure you have calculated the probability every time you want to place a bet. Don't let us make bets just by guessing carelessly without going through a process of analysis and consideration.

And indeed, there is no single perfect strategy for winning bets with a 100% winning ratio. However, by continuing to pay attention to the possibilities that occur through the information you get and by carrying out good match analysis, you will always be able to increase your chances of winning a bet.

[Woodie]

The fact that history is meant to be broken means you can not rely on statistical data especially that some games tend to favor form over fixture/history.

And if you ask me, I would rather treat all my picks to have a 50-50 chance of winning,  which is why I don't even entertain low odds below 1.50 as they are usually spoilers and high risk as they require huge amounts to fatten the profits!!
Besides, sports games aren't some kind of board game like chess...these games need to be played with emotions, good psychological wellbeing,  external support and a whole lot of stuff which makes it quite unpredictable  

[Beparanf]

The fact that history is meant to be broken means you can not rely on statistical data especially that some games tend to favor form over fixture/history.

Stats is very helpful to evaluate the team capacity to win either on upset match or on an even match. There’s a lot of choices bets which sportsbook pffering and some of them are value bets which they place high odds on a pick that has a probability of winning. This is the time when stats is very important since you have knowledge on a certain which is not being value properly by the bookmaker due to some error.

Sportsbetting is more on stats analysis plus luck and you will have an edge on this type gambling of you are hood on stats analysis.

[Fiatless]

I think statistical data should never be treated reliable in sports betting. Especially with sports involving 10-20 people its sometimes up to their concentration/mentality etc. Statistics can help you as subsidiary support to your bet. I mean you could be familiar with both teams in a football match and pick a bit but after check if stats support it. But using stats only would result in instant losses in my opinion.

Statistical analysis is just part of other gambling strategies. It is also important to understand that there is no single that will certainly lead to wins. Gamblers choose the strategy that is convenient and more profitable to them. I will always prefer using different strategies before betting. Analyzing the current performance of the team you want to bet on is also important. As you said statistics might not be reliable because the present condition of the team is also important. An example is that any gambler who considered the statistics of the English premiership team Chelsea to bet on the team last season would have lost throughout last season. This is because their performance last season didn't reflect their statistics.

[Westinhome]

The gambling can be win using the old strategical data.The sports bet had the players who was playing in the real soccer.If you take the Ronaldo for the game,you know what his current strategy and goal scoring capacity in Saudi Arabia league.Using the Ronaldo current game,the sports betting can be made.So the probability of winning using the sports knowledge will be more.If you are not well at sports,you can search in the internet and bet based on the sports static data.You should use different strategies before making a bet.If you strategy one was not works.Then you should use the strategy two and if the second one failed. You must try the third strategy.