Could Satoshi have known?

[oktana]

What a coincidence I was thinking of this! In my opinion, I don't think he knew or would guess all that is happening right now. Of course, he believed in himself and what he built (after all that's all that kept him going), however, looking at where Bitcoin started and comparing it to where it is, and even looking at how many other cryptocurrencies have followed after Bitcoin, it'll take only a prophet of God to have known. I bet that he is amazed by the growth, just as everyone he pitched the idea to, and even those who invested at the time.

[Sexylizzy2813]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

You just said it that Satoshi is someone who has made this system to be alive till this very moment and I also believe he doesn't care if you decide to invest in Bitcoin or selling or maybe buying it, he doesn't care.
Is like he already knows how it works and the way we use it doesn't concern him a bit so is like he said go and make use of your Bitcoin, spread the news and teach those who doesn't have any idea of Bitcoin, he's one hell of a creator.
Since he's the creator of Bitcoin he knows the in and out of it and he also knows  that people are going to make billions out of it and he doesn't need to worry.

[taufik123]

Was it possible beyond Satohsi's expectations that Bitcoin could grow this far?
Bitcoin was created to eliminate the authority that is sometimes always arbitrary in the financial rules that are made.
With the creation of decentralized Bitcoin, there will be no more parties when regulating anyone's finances.

Price fluctuations are the center of everyone's attention, used to make investments and provide profits.
this has been fully predicted by Satoshi.

related to whether this is in accordance with the original purpose of Bitcoin in creation, people are starting to feel how the impact of Bitcoin and its technology today.
Some countries are starting to adopt and trading is just one of the benefits that can be obtained with bitcoin.

[philipma1957]

Am sure Satoshi didn't quite think BTC would turn out to an investment option for people as opposed to the idea in mind before its creation.
One thing I have always loved about new innovations is that people get to utilize it in various scenerio to ascertain which best the innovation serves.
BTC to some is just money, but to others, it is a valuable asset worth investing and HODLing for a duration and if Satoshi had thought about all the possibility of having BTC, perhaps imthe idea would have failed.

I disagree I think it was for speculative and not for p2p.

I think if it was p2p money system it would not run out of rewards as he designed it.

Running out of mining rewards creates an upwards price pressure.

 A Flat reward with constant number would have made more sense for p2p. Money 💵 transfer.

[mamesso]

Satoshi already thought this would happen before he introduced Bitcoin to the public. Investors' interest in the various conveniences and advantages of Bitcoin which are considered to be able to increase the amount of income from investments has made Bitcoin increasingly grow and become popular with people around the world.
Now what happens? Bitcoin transaction volumes are getting bigger and new investors continue to arrive wanting to collect Bitcoin as a store of value and can also be used as an investment asset. Satoshi never expected that Bitcoin would become the most popular asset among many people from various groups. The increasing volume of Bitcoin transactions makes Bitcoin's potential even greater for the future.

[Ale88]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

Of course he knew it. He pretty much took in consideration every possibility since the beginning, and since he was so smart, he knew that people are greedy so many would take advantage of bitcoin, especially at first, but there is no alternative, that's how it works, there always is a certain time needed to adjust things. Everything that has a value will be traded, bitcoin is no exception.

[ChiBitCTy]

I think Satoshi absolutely knew that eventually if bitcoin “hit it big” that eventually people would start to trade bitcoin as an asset just like traders trade every single type of fiat currency as an asset.

I think Satoshi was/is Nick Szabo, who’s an economist and someone whom would absolutely know that if bitcoin became a big deal, that it would eventually be traded.

[Dunamisx]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

You just said it that Satoshi is someone who has made this system to be alive till this very moment and I also believe he doesn't care if you decide to invest in Bitcoin or selling or maybe buying it, he doesn't care.
Is like he already knows how it works and the way we use it doesn't concern him a bit so is like he said go and make use of your Bitcoin, spread the news and teach those who doesn't have any idea of Bitcoin, he's one hell of a creator.
Since he's the creator of Bitcoin he knows the in and out of it and he also knows  that people are going to make billions out of it and he doesn't need to worry.

Satoshi Nakamoto is someone that believes in possibilities, he knew that if he created an alternative digital currency to fiat, people will adopt it and not sure of how soon will the success emerge, despite these, it's more of a surprise still yet that bitcoin has become this big and widely adopted across the universe, which i believe that he never expect this that soon, then also, the people have seing more insight in the opportunities that comes in with bitcoin adoption which can serve them as a store of value, profitable asset, investment currency and many more benefits to get with bitcoin adoption.

[robelneo]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

Inventor usually has a vision but that doesn't mean that the vision will match the reality. There could be many things which Satoshi probably have never thought about. For example the block size. If he had envisioned that Bitcoin's transaction volume will be so huge, he would made it in a different way to accomodate more space.

So it doesn't matter what Satoshi had envisioned. What matters is the free market which decides the next course of action. Not a government or cash rich corporation decides that for us!

I agree, Satoshi overlooked that mining will be ASIC-based in the future and there will be mining pools if Satoshi had known that there would be massive adoption he could have increased the number of Bitcoins to be mine

“I wanted to pick something that would make prices similar to existing currencies, but without knowing the future, that’s very hard. I ended up picking something in the middle,” Nakamoto said.

If you're a creator you will try to be as realistic as possible based on present examples, there's so much speculation about the 21 million supply and how Satoshi perceives the future of Bitcoin's volatility like what is happening now, the Whitepaper dwells on alternative, not on the investment side and making a profit that something that the creator did not dwell on.

[mk4]

however, looking at where Bitcoin started and comparing it to where it is, and even looking at how many other cryptocurrencies have followed after Bitcoin, it'll take only a prophet of God to have known.

I don't think so. If Satoshi thought that Bitcoin will end up being 'something', it's almost guaranteed to expect that other cryptocurrencies would arise. Simply due to the fact that Bitcoin is totally open-source hence forkable, and simply due to the fact that the idea of a cryptocurrency could have LOTS of iterations and other use-cases.

[Gallar]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

I think Satoshi was aware of it from the start. Because remembering that everyone who wants to have bitcoin, can get it by buying it. Given this fact, the price of bitcoin will automatically change as a result of its purchase. So most likely, Satoshi already knew this since Bitcoin was first launched.

Apart from that, many people end up using bitcoin as an investment asset and trading asset (turned into income). I think this must have been predicted by Satoshi too. Because after all, it was Satoshi who created bitcoin and certainly Satoshi was the one who knew best the potential that bitcoin had. So I'm sure Satoshi already predicted it, that Bitcoin would become a valuable and profitable asset for bitcoin investors and traders. Although basically Satoshi's goal in creating bitcoin was to create a currency that was decentralized and could be used as a transaction tool. However, it cannot be denied that the potential that exists in Bitcoin can make many people gain profits and make many people change their lives for the better. So I think Satoshi will still be happy with this fact.

And although currently bitcoin is used by the majority of users, it is only for investment assets and trading assets. But the fact is that there are already those who use bitcoin as a transaction tool, for example in the country of El Salvador. So even though currently Satoshi's goals have not actually been fulfilled for the majority. But the fact remains that all this is bound to lead to mass adoption of bitcoin.

[ChicksX]

Am sure Satoshi didn't quite think BTC would turn out to an investment option for people as opposed to the idea in mind before its creation.
One thing I have always loved about new innovations is that people get to utilize it in various scenerio to ascertain which best the innovation serves.
BTC to some is just money, but to others, it is a valuable asset worth investing and HODLing for a duration and if Satoshi had thought about all the possibility of having BTC, perhaps imthe idea would have failed.

I disagree I think it was for speculative and not for p2p.

I think if it was p2p money system it would not run out of rewards as he designed it.

Running out of mining rewards creates an upwards price pressure.

 A Flat reward with constant number would have made more sense for p2p. Money 💵 transfer.

Transaction fees are part of the block reward though. Eventually the block reward will be entirely comprised of this mining fee.

[Obari]

do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

Well I don't think it never occured to him because i think he already knew that the higher the acceptance, the higher the buying power and as such, it might make it volatile.
On the second thought, what if Satoshi never intended any other plans for Bitcoin but rather using it simply as a decentralized digital currency because that was what the white paper makes it look like typically.
I also think one of the things that has made Bitcoin gained more recognition is the fact that is used as an investment option rather than just a payment option and since people have more chances of making profits off just holding.

[Y3shot]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

I think Satoshi knew that bitcoin will be this relevant and so big that is why he went ahead with the creation of bitcoin , if he had no vision about bitcoin I don't think their will be vision.  The bitcoin we have today is as a result of vision satoshi had, I don't think Satoshi created bitcoin with mindset of try your luck. If bitcoin was created based on trials it won't be this valuable currency,  everything ever done great was as a result of good planning.

[lalabotax]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

From what quoted by @jrrsparkles and @albert0bsd, it means that Satoshi knew it and understood it.
As the creator of Bitcoin, of course he has predicted what will happen to the development of Bitcoin in the future. Meanwhile, basically, he himself also stated about the possible prices and volume of trade, about supply and demand, and I'm sure also about other things, especially as a currency. But what he wasn't sure about was the exact time. And maybe it's for that reason that Satoshi also doesn't want to show who he is, because maybe it would be very dangerous for him or them when Bitcoin becomes this big and there are some parties in the world who don't like that.

[DudeAtWork420]

Satoshi knew that bitcoin would get to this point and he took his time to develop and build the bitcoin master plan. He envisioned it far beyond just using it as a means of digital payment he also knew it would be a good store of value which people would want to hold onto to measure the value of their wealth. For bitcoin to have gained this popularity people saw it just more than a means payment but just as satoshi has envisioned.   There it turned out to be a store of value which made it more popular and volatile.

[BitDane]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

Satoshi never focused on the price of Bitcoin, remember he is the creator of Bitcoin and his major task is to develop it and not indulge himself on the price speculation of Bitcoin.  Aside from that during his stay and disappearance, Bitcoin is just starting to get traded in the market.

As far as I know this is one of the few replies of Satoshi that involves the Bitcoin transaction volume and shows how open minded Satoshi is:

Right.  Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating.  In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes.  I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

He does not state any price but the volume of transaction.  But I am quite sure he knows that Bitcoin might have a chance to be highly volatile taken from the quoted reply on how open ended his reply is about the future volume of transaction of BTC.

[tread93]

Well, he said he was pretty certain that in a few decades it would either have a lot of volume or none. I'd say that he really gave it a 50-50 haha. Of course he for sure had much more faith in it being a future success than that.

[Captain Corporate]

I think it was obvious from the start. The main core of it has the "people buy it from each other" so its not really shocking to see it volatile, specially when you consider at the start it worth so little, so that means we are going to see it jumping up and down so much. I think its quite important to realize that we are going to end up with this type of thing. Not because we actually do it, but because it was obvious from the get go that it worked this way so it shouldn't be really a shocker. I understand he may not have guessed the price reaching these highs, that part is different, but volatility he definitely assumed without a doubt, everyone knew it would be volatile. I think we just didn't know it would go this high.

[Blitzboy]

Maybe we are wrong to think that Satoshi never had the thought that bitcoin was going to become very volatile and people were going to be able to make money from how the  price of bitcoins changes easily. Satoshi is someone that has insight and was able to make this system that has been able to survive and is doing well after a long time of creation, do you think that it never occurred to him that people may start investing in bitcoins instead of really using it for buying and selling?

I think Satoshi was aware of it from the start. Because remembering that everyone who wants to have bitcoin, can get it by buying it. Given this fact, the price of bitcoin will automatically change as a result of its purchase. So most likely, Satoshi already knew this since Bitcoin was first launched.

Apart from that, many people end up using bitcoin as an investment asset and trading asset (turned into income). I think this must have been predicted by Satoshi too. Because after all, it was Satoshi who created bitcoin and certainly Satoshi was the one who knew best the potential that bitcoin had. So I'm sure Satoshi already predicted it, that Bitcoin would become a valuable and profitable asset for bitcoin investors and traders. Although basically Satoshi's goal in creating bitcoin was to create a currency that was decentralized and could be used as a transaction tool. However, it cannot be denied that the potential that exists in Bitcoin can make many people gain profits and make many people change their lives for the better. So I think Satoshi will still be happy with this fact.

And although currently bitcoin is used by the majority of users, it is only for investment assets and trading assets. But the fact is that there are already those who use bitcoin as a transaction tool, for example in the country of El Salvador. So even though currently Satoshi's goals have not actually been fulfilled for the majority. But the fact remains that all this is bound to lead to mass adoption of bitcoin.

We humans often end up using tools in ways we never originally imagined. Take the internet; its creators probably didnt envision us streaming movies or creating memes on it, did they? But here we are

Satoshi might've intended Bitcoin for p2p decentralized transactions, but we have turned it into digital gold. We buy, we sell, and we profit. Now, Im no seer, but the idea that Satoshi foresaw all the financial acrobatics we perform with Bitcoin is quite amusing, if not unrealistic

El Salvador is pioneering the transactional use of Bitcoin, which does follow Satoshi's dream. The potential for mass adoption? Its there, and we might just be on the brink of it. So lets watch, learn, and adapt, and who knows? Maybe we can be a part of the next big shift in how we perceive currency and value