Post-ETF effect: Has Bitcoin Bottomed yet?

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

The Bitcoin ETF saga of approval/rejection has finally been put to rest as the "approval" finally has it. But the market has never greeted it with much excitement as it sold on that very day of approval but rose sharply to hit a little above $49,000 the next day before plummeting ever since then. This is no doubt a short-term setback for Bitcoin even as we expect the positive effect of halving on the coin. Also, I hope that this short-term bearish trend, (perhaps I should call it a correction of the main bullish trend) will not grow into a more determined bearishness that will put the coin under further pressure.

With what we have seen now, the market is already getting more stable than before and the accrued tensions have being relieved with what we are seeing in the recent market performance, we cannot give the conclusion on that short time impact as we experience bear after the approval of bitcoin ETF, the market is self sustainable without much impact from other economic activities than what it experience from within, this is why we see the recent surge on the market as bitcoin emerges on 44k USD value, this doesn't also mean that we may not experience more volatility before the halving, all we could do is to position ourselves more better with our investments.

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[Fatunad]

The Bitcoin ETF saga of approval/rejection has finally been put to rest as the "approval" finally has it. But the market has never greeted it with much excitement as it sold on that very day of approval but rose sharply to hit a little above $49,000 the next day before plummeting ever since then. This is no doubt a short-term setback for Bitcoin even as we expect the positive effect of halving on the coin. Also, I hope that this short-term bearish trend, (perhaps I should call it a correction of the main bullish trend) will not grow into a more determined bearishness that will put the coin under further pressure.

With what we have seen now, the market is already getting more stable than before and the accrued tensions have being relieved with what we are seeing in the recent market performance, we cannot give the conclusion on that short time impact as we experience bear after the approval of bitcoin ETF, the market is self sustainable without much impact from other economic activities than what it experience from within, this is why we see the recent surge on the market as bitcoin emerges on 44k USD value, this doesn't also mean that we may not experience more volatility before the halving, all we could do is to position ourselves more better with our investments.

38k was the bottom but i do believe that it wasnt the bottom. Come to think that we dont have that ETF wayback into those previous years and its really that normal that we would really be having those pre-post halving
price movement on which it could neither be a pump or crash which we know that this is something that typical into this unpredictable space. Now that the price is starting to cling up. Then it is really that safe to assume out
that we would really be having those possible dumps before halving hits and after halving too. There's no way that we could really be able to know on whats the bottom.

Effect or not, we should really be wise on taking up decisions specially on whats the price in front of us, whether you would really be holding your position or you would really be
selling out to secure profits and make some buyback when it dips and then leave some moonbag afterwards, its your choice actually.! 

[coolcoinz]

So, let's clear some things up because some of you mix the short-term bottom with a cycle bottom. The cycle bottom is in and it happened in 2022, so don't get fooled by all these fools telling you that bitcoin is going to 10k or something because they are saying it because they hope for another black swan event like the one in 2020 during Covid19. They hope a black swan event will prove them right and they'll gain respect and social media followers, that's all.

The more important question is if the short-term bottom is in, meaning that the post ETF correction is over and we'll keep going higher after the halving. IMO the correction is over and I'm talking it by looking at both technicals and fundamentals.
According to TA we've broken the corrective trend line to the upside by going over 43k on daily charts.
When it comes to fundamentals, the ETFs have bought a lot of btc and so did big players like Microstrategy. There was some pressure from miners and GBTC but both are slowly dropping because both expect the spot price of bitcoin to go up after the halving, so people who couldn't wait another 6 months sold, but the ones who could held.

It's looking good if you ask me. I don't expect an ATH before the halving, but we should get one by the end of the year.

[Unbunplease]

Smart money is always slow. The adoption of ETFs has simply opened the floodgate for this money into the world of cryptocurrencies. It will take some time for this gateway to take effect. Therefore, we may well see the expected effect in March/April. Right now, new entrants are just starting to enter the game, but there aren't many big names yet.

[ivankoh]

I agree that the approval of a bitcoin ETF is a wide open space for bitcoin's strong growth path but it is not characteristic of price volatility. After the post-ETF excitement, bitcoin actively retested the resistance levels of 40k, and 38k. it is certainly an optimism in the pre-halving cycle, assuming that the bottom for bitcoin could be 32k-38k then the opportunity ahead is huge. bitcoin has a strong possibility to break the previous ath in 2021, it is optimistic this year before making a new allh breakthrough.

[EarnOnVictor]

The Bitcoin ETF saga of approval/rejection has finally been put to rest as the "approval" finally has it. But the market has never greeted it with much excitement as it sold on that very day of approval but rose sharply to hit a little above $49,000 the next day before plummeting ever since then. This is no doubt a short-term setback for Bitcoin even as we expect the positive effect of halving on the coin. Also, I hope that this short-term bearish trend, (perhaps I should call it a correction of the main bullish trend) will not grow into a more determined bearishness that will put the coin under further pressure.

With what we have seen now, the market is already getting more stable than before and the accrued tensions have being relieved with what we are seeing in the recent market performance, we cannot give the conclusion on that short time impact as we experience bear after the approval of bitcoin ETF, the market is self sustainable without much impact from other economic activities than what it experience from within, this is why we see the recent surge on the market as bitcoin emerges on 44k USD value, this doesn't also mean that we may not experience more volatility before the halving, all we could do is to position ourselves more better with our investments.

38k was the bottom but i do believe that it wasnt the bottom. Come to think that we dont have that ETF wayback into those previous years and its really that normal that we would really be having those pre-post halving
price movement on which it could neither be a pump or crash which we know that this is something that typical into this unpredictable space. Now that the price is starting to cling up. Then it is really that safe to assume out
that we would really be having those possible dumps before halving hits and after halving too. There's no way that we could really be able to know on whats the bottom.

I'm often surprised when I read from people the remark I boldened in your reply, you mean no one will know what the market is doing? I think you are far behind when it comes to the market speculations, maybe you will have to add some learning to what you know, or else, you will always be neutral about it. Yet, some people know. It is true that what you do not know, you do not know, but I still urge you to learn because it is not that we can't know what we do not know, only that we do not give attention to it. The Bitcoin market is one of the easiest markets I've come across, it only needs your patience and good support and resistance strategy, which if used with the right price action, the accuracy of your predictions will be so high.

For me, this year, the two important levels aside from the upper ones are $40,243 and $43,606, and you can see what the market did around them. The market was so unrested around these levels and once breached significantly with a daily close above them, what happened? The market spiked higher. The last one was this week, I think on Wednesday when the $43,606 was eventually breached upwards and the market closed above it. You can see what has been happening ever since then. And if you are conversant with my speculation, you would have read it all the time even as I mentioned this level as a determining point. The market is highly predictable, and if the halving would help, it is highly possible that the low of around $38,500 witnessed this year will be the bottom for the year. This is even as the needed correction has been effectively weighed. What is now the issue? I can't see any for now.

[adaseb]

Well the numbers for Thursday came out and they were +$400M for inflows. And most likely the flows for Friday will be large because GBTC was only like -$50M and we had a crazy day hitting $48K. So on Monday when all the ETFs update their AUM we will see how many inflows were made that day.

So far its looking like we might break the $40K, especially if we get almost +$500M daily of inflows. I am sure most people panic sold when we went below $40K or they sold during the ETF launch because they knew it was a sell the news event. The next 2 months should be interesting since the halving is coming up.

[danadc]

I am not saying that it has hit bottom, because for me bitcoin has never hit bottom, it is always presented as opportunities to buy, in this approval of the ETF it is an opportunity that if the price drops more then it is bought, and when it actually does the ETF effect, well yes, bitcoin can go up a lot, I don't know if it can reach an ATH, maybe yes, but since it is about to reach the halving this year, that can become an accumulation and be able to make a great exploit of all.

Can you imagine that exploit would make the price reach around $200k? That would be incredible, that would be a sea of regrets that people didn't buy at this price thinking they were going to lose, that is what we have to face and theoretically things can happen like that, opportunities are how they present themselves once in a lifetime And they have to be prepared, if they let the opportunities pass, it is very difficult for them to have it again in those same conditions. It is very difficult.

[yohananaomi]

I'm seeing this correction to likely be the last opportunity to get Bitcoin cheaper, recall what happened back during the 2020 last Bitcoin halving, the “Corona virus market dump”, and that was the last lowest level that the market saw and after which Bitcoin skyrocketed in the price and created a new ATH we have today $69k, so I kind of think this is the point where we are in this market cycle, the lowest level to watch is $31k level of support worst case scenario for BTC, I'm not in panic until Bitcoin begins to take out those levels, and should the price dip down to that point. Sometimes market don't go as fast as we expect, it takes time, patient is the key thing right now.

I hope that the predictions you have made can come true. Of course, I am also waiting for the correction; before it changes and disappears, there will be an increase. Of course, this is good news for me, something I am really looking forward to, because there is an opportunity to immediately buy as much as possible before the moment changes, because usually the moment that occurs will soon disappear if it is not used as well as possible.
I totally agree with what you said. It really takes patience for something to happen; everything always takes time to achieve its goal.