back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak.

[Yamane_Keto]

we did get to 48.9k

well lets see the next few months.

Are you saying that we are waiting for two months of decline before prices stabilize before bitcoin halving, exactly as happened in 2014? If this happens, it is closer to a 50% correction, which may take us back to 28k ~ 32k. If this happens, it will be bad for everyone who bet that the price will rise with ETFs.

[Biodom]

Nice thread you got going here, @philipma1957!

Looking back at 2017, I have no idea why it was so bullish, especially after April or so: 20X in 8-9 mo.
One possibility is that bitcoin did not succumb to "corporate" interests and did not (in the main branch) implement the much bigger blocks. There was a fork, but a clear majority went against people like Circle/Coinbase/Bitmain. This reinforced bitcoin "independence" and probably caused an increase in perceived value.

Looking at now: exactly the opposite had happened. Bitcoin is now a part of the tradfi system through which we should expect larger money flows, in eventuality.
This suggests, that instead of acceleration, bitcoin price curve would decelerate, in my opinion, to maybe 30% or at the absolute maximum, 40% a year (on average).
30% in 5 years from the $49K local maximum would mean about $181K by Jan 2029 (market cap of roughly 3.8 tril).
40% would mean about $263K (total market cap roughly 5.5 tril or 46% of gold).
I don't see 500K in 2025, but I did not see 20K in 2017 either  

EDIT: btw, gold did about 5X in 7 years after the ETF approval. As bitcoin is "faster", it can do the same 5X in less than 7, so a 5 years "number" seems reasonable to me. 7 years (in Jan 2031) is the longest time for bitcoin to 5X to about 240-250K that I can envision.

[NeuroticFish]

We are not even at half of the month and a lot of things can happen. This may be a pretty much expected bear trap, but somewhat oddly placed (I expected it before the ETF announcements).
I would give it some time - until the end of this month - before getting a conclusion. If the price still goes downwards it's a nice opportunity to buy, if it starts going up... it may go fast!
The chance to end the month still on a positive trend is pretty good.

[EarnOnVictor]

we did get to 48.9k

well lets see the next few months.

Are you saying that we are waiting for two months of decline before prices stabilize before bitcoin halving, exactly as happened in 2014? If this happens, it is closer to a 50% correction, which may take us back to 28k ~ 32k. If this happens, it will be bad for everyone who bet that the price will rise with ETFs.

This is an asset, anything can happen in its market, which calls for caution and for us not to be too trusting about anything. We shouldn't, not for a pattern, not for a history and not even your most trusted ideas, they can all fail because the market is dynamic, surprising and it is not centralised, it is only being participated by many and will decide haphazardly at times to the dismay of people. Bitcoin started well more than a decade ago and had a very good positive pattern and history that made it move in multiples to the extent that people were astonished, but as we progress now, I believe that we will see some kind of shift of actions, in which Bitcoin might disappoint a lot of people, so we should get set for it.

The first surprise which is a deviation from what usually happens was when the market moved strongly upward due to ETF news and headlines, and you think this can't have a lasting issue on the coin over time? As harmless as it might seem, it might alter a lot since halving was what people always knew to cause huge impacts like that but another thing had caused it, it could cause a twist in the market psychology which many might not be prepared for. Although I do not know if the present decline can persist, but the fact remains that we are in the short-term bear market, and it may escalate more than how we expect it. So, the OP could be right or wrong, after all, we are only speculating. Nonetheless, with what I see now, Bitcoin might hit $40,243, if not $40,000. A break of those levels could be catastrophic for the coin. And of course, we should know that the ETF optimism has been dashed when it comes to the price response to it, we should just accept it and continue to work with the market as we see it live.

[philipma1957]

we did get to 48.9k

well lets see the next few months.

Are you saying that we are waiting for two months of decline before prices stabilize before bitcoin halving, exactly as happened in 2014? If this happens, it is closer to a 50% correction, which may take us back to 28k ~ 32k. If this happens, it will be bad for everyone who bet that the price will rise with ETFs.

not saying this at all.
match us to 2016  not 2014

and we do have the Etf factor
the ordinal factor
the lower penalty for a huge mine to lower hash rate and raise in within a 2 week period to drive fees up.

so do we continue in a 40-50k slot till 1/2 ing I think we do.

[NeuroticFish]

so do we continue in a 40-50k slot till 1/2 ing I think we do.

I've seen here and there ideas that we may go to 30k-40k or even lower, but I personally think that they're overly pessimistic and don't take correctly into account the money inflow via ETF.
I see the 40k-50k a good range, although it may not be kept all the time (going off in both direction).

I've seen an interesting post that I feel it goes here.