Bustabit Bankroll Profit Predictor

[darkheroo]

Hi all,

I created a Bustabit Bankroll profit predictor, which uses the total invested and the daily bankroll profit to form an estimate of the amount of returns you can expect to make when investing in the Bustabit bankroll.

To predict future profits, we are using the daily profit average of the past 2 months.

You can access my site here: https://babprofitcalculator.com/

Let me know what you guys think

[1715365756]

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[1715365756]

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[seoincorporation]

That's a simple site but it works fine. Is cool to know how we can get 0.00166 daily if you invest 1 BTC, it means the investor can get more than 0.5btc/year with 1 BTC, and that sounds too good to be real :p

Since we are talking about gambling some months the casino can end with loses, and that happens when some whales win big. But most of the months the house ends with profits.

By the way, it would be nice if you add a tab with info about the project, it would be nice to know the equation you use to do the math.

[darkheroo]

That's a simple site but it works fine. Is cool to know how we can get 0.00166 daily if you invest 1 BTC, it means the investor can get more than 0.5btc/year with 1 BTC, and that sounds too good to be real :p

Since we are talking about gambling some months the casino can end with loses, and that happens when some whales win big. But most of the months the house ends with profits.

By the way, it would be nice if you add a tab with info about the project, it would be nice to know the equation you use to do the math.

Thanks! Currently, the site is using an estimation of the total invested in the bankroll, alongside the daily bankroll profit for the estimation. According to my site, if you invest 1 BTC on November 8th, 2023 and hold till November 8th, 2024, you'll make 0.306 BTC in profit.

I believe those numbers to be fairly accurate. However, my site is still in alpha and i'm planning to improve the accuracy of the prediction by adding more data into the math calculation. The data i'm planning to add is the estimated commission taken by Bustabit, alongside a couple more.

In any case, I hope devans (bustabit owner) can give his thoughts on the site as well.

[Kakmakr]

Can you break down the formula that you use to make these calculations? It sounds a bit crazy that you can make more than 30% of the investment capital you deposited, back in profit in a year.  

I am also getting security certificate warnings about your site, so I do not know if your SSL certificate are legit? In any way, it is nice to see those potential profits, but can we trust the calculations?

[Broadanbig]

This calculation is too real to be true or is that it is not working perfectly well from my end because I do not see any thing captivating about the website. Op, if this site is on alpha test, I think all the features should have been incorporated for a proper review and testing. Just that way you can not be able to get much feedback and as you can see, there are no much replies here because your website contains no much information or options for one to navigate through for a successful review here. So I think you should not expect much from who ever replies your thread here with respect to your website design.

[ryzaadit]

-snip-

That's why is called predictor.

It's not really actually accurate. IMO, If these really happened without any problem (lose) and gettin 30%/years is quite to smooth since we all know from one of our history investment casino threads: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5239794.msg54203954#msg54203954

Casino Investment still get some lose (while people think casino business is always profit) + potential the site is closed as well.

[TheUltraElite]

Welcome to bitcointalk forum @darkheroo, hope you stay active here because there are so many things to check out.

So I checked out the predictor website and it is currently showing a 2x less profit amount than what I can see over a period of investment that I have done.

Investing 1.0BTC on BaB, remove the dilution fee of 0.02BTC (2%) and remaining 0.98BTC is the actual amount for investment. Over the last 10days of my investment without any change happening to my bankroll value, the amount is now 0.995 BTC.

So the difference here is 0.015BTC gains and that happened over 10days
 -which make a daily rate of 0.15% and translates to a yearly rate of 54.75% - correct me if I am wrong.

Note that this happened while there was a 400BTC massive withdrawal from the bankroll. Maybe if the bankroll was more stable, this number might be smaller.

I expect this number of become a more stable over the next few months and we can determine a range between which it varies for people to get a better idea of.

Offtopic : there is also a site called bustastats.com which notes the APY from BAB and Bustadice, seems to be dead since March 2023.

[Text]

I checked out your Bustabit Bankroll profit predictor, and it's an interesting tool you've created. I appreciate your transparency about the alpha status of your site and your plans to improve its accuracy. I'm also curious to hear what Devans thinks about your site, it would be great to have some insights from the platform's creator. Keep up the good work, and I hope your tool continues to evolve and provide valuable information to potential investors. Best of luck with your project!

I compared what I could potentially gain if I were to invest in their casino, but it turned out to be smaller than what I'm currently investing in, which is unrelated to gambling. The current investment I have is a business with a physical location outlet, and the owner is well-known in our town. They offer a 30% return on your investment capital after a month, and the minimum investment required is quite low. Nothing, I just shared. I thought that the return from the casino would be larger compared to a traditional business.

[Mahdirakib]

So the difference here is 0.015BTC gains and that happened over 10days
 -which make a daily rate of 0.15% and translates to a yearly rate of 54.75% - correct me if I am wrong.

Your calculation is right, but the profit/commission comes from users losses on Bustabit. Therefore, you won't receive the commission/profit at the same rate always. Your gains may become negative if any user makes good profits on Bustabit now. Anyway, OP has made an estimator and he has also mentioned that the calculation could be inaccurate.

[TheUltraElite]

Your calculation is right, but the profit/commission comes from users losses on Bustabit. Therefore, you won't receive the commission/profit at the same rate always. Your gains may become negative if any user makes good profits on Bustabit now. Anyway, OP has made an estimator and he has also mentioned that the calculation could be inaccurate.

Which is why I will update my findings from my own investment to assist the OP in preparing a better calculation algorithm. Once I hit the 1month mark I will re-calculate the daily, monthly and expected yearly income and then see the trend. If we keep doing this update every few months we can chart and plot the changes over time and eventually get a good data.

For now I think that by the next week my 2% dilution fee will be cleared off the book by the incoming money.

[Mahdirakib]

Which is why I will update my findings from my own investment to assist the OP in preparing a better calculation algorithm. Once I hit the 1month mark I will re-calculate the daily, monthly and expected yearly income and then see the trend.

OP is using one kind of algorithm for the calculation. It could be helpful for the gambling community if you create your own thread with your investment experience. Two forum members had shared their investment experience on the forum. Both of them had invested on Yolodice (closed casino) and one of them had invested in Bustadice (Bustabit sister site). These topics could be helpful for you:
• GAMBLING SITE INVESTMENT
• Snipie's gambling investment test

[alani123]

Users above said their result came out to a 54% annual yield but when I input 1 BTC to a year I get the result of 0.33 BTC profit, that amount to 33% annual return. Which sounds insane but still is different than what others had as a result.



Makes me wonder how this site works out the calculations.
I also wonder if there was a single year where investors in a dice site had returns of 33% in BTC. Normally some data should be used to calculate returns but I don't know any website having data on dice side investments other than dicesites.com, and even for them I'm not sure if they make the whole raw data public.

[Hispo]

That's a simple site but it works fine. Is cool to know how we can get 0.00166 daily if you invest 1 BTC, it means the investor can get more than 0.5btc/year with 1 BTC, and that sounds too good to be real :p

Since we are talking about gambling some months the casino can end with loses, and that happens when some whales win big. But most of the months the house ends with profits.

By the way, it would be nice if you add a tab with info about the project, it would be nice to know the equation you use to do the math.

I believe it would be reasonable for us to assume that Bustabit and other casinos which offer the options for gamblers to take a slice of their profit by providing liquidity, have some part in their Term of Service which states that the Percentage of return could get adjusted without previous warning by the casino operators, it is similar to what happens in cryptocurrency exchanges which offer interest for deposits in stablecoins and Bitcoin.

So even though these numbers sounds pretty impressive a first glance, that percentage could get adjusted for the sake of the long term sustainabilty of the casino and investors.

[so98nn]

Well for a minute your site made me a rich person. I am not sure how you calculate that but I hope it's not just fun to play project where we insert some values and we see a high amount of yield in return. That looks good but that doesn't feel right when it comes to investing real money. After putting in 0.05 BTC for just 3 months, the calculator shows around 0.0036 in return. That is a very high yield given the period of investment and also the amount.

However, now it making me go on the bustabit site and actually look for the real answers whether I am going to get that much profits or not so that I can invest. It is way way better as compared to shitty sites where they claim 3-4% daily returns, the ponzis. You have just given me some nice idea to make my investment worth it. Thanks for the tool and idea. Cheers!

[Webetcoins]

Makes me wonder how this site works out the calculations.
I also wonder if there was a single year where investors in a dice site had returns of 33% in BTC. Normally some data should be used to calculate returns but I don't know any website having data on dice side investments other than dicesites.com, and even for them I'm not sure if they make the whole raw data public.

Both yours and others result are insane. Really? Those figures? I think those are a lot only for a 1 BTC investment per year. I expect something lower than it. I only realized that the site was still in alpha phase, as on what is written when I visit it, so let us be patient for a while, while the OP is working on it in the background.

What you said about they use a data to calculate the returns, seems a right answer to your own question if how can they work out their calculations. You are already there in dicesites.com, but you didn't find the answer that you're looking for to your other question? But if you can't see the raw data there, then the answer would be no. They try to make it private but it's understandable since those data's can be sensitive.

[decodx]

Makes me wonder how this site works out the calculations.
I also wonder if there was a single year where investors in a dice site had returns of 33% in BTC. Normally some data should be used to calculate returns but I don't know any website having data on dice side investments other than dicesites.com, and even for them I'm not sure if they make the whole raw data public.

Both yours and others result are insane. Really? Those figures? I think those are a lot only for a 1 BTC investment per year. I expect something lower than it. I only realized that the site was still in alpha phase, as on what is written when I visit it, so let us be patient for a while, while the OP is working on it in the background.
<...>

Though yeah, alani123 shared the numbers as percentages so the original investment amount doesn't really matter.  I get what you're saying, but percentages let you compare no matter how much the initial investment was.  30% of $100 is the same as 30% of $10,000 - it's still 30% and  big returns sound great but being skeptical makes sense too.

[alani123]

It's worth pointing out though that 30% annually is extremely unrealistic. You can't expect such returns anywhere, let alone in a dice site that takes public investment and could very well turn negative. At that rate you would become a millionaire in a few years even with an investment of 100$ initially.

Hopefully OP is going to find some more realistic ways to make his calcolations.

[Wiwo]

So the difference here is 0.015BTC gains and that happened over 10 days
 -which makes a daily rate of 0.15% and translates to a yearly rate of 54.75% - correct me if I am wrong.

Your calculation is right, but the profit/commission comes from users' losses on Bustabit. Therefore, you won't receive the commission/profit at the same rate always. Your gains may become negative if any user makes good profits on Bustabit now. Anyway, OP has made an estimator and he has also mentioned that the calculation could be inaccurate.

Even at that,  the 54%+ annual turnover for bankroll is still unrealistic at some point even though all the gamblers lost their games in the specific period to the point of having high returns for that year out,  even at that,  it is not possible to still achieve such high return,  I know bustabit have a good bankroll system a few years back according to history but then also we have to be accurate when giving figures of how much there actually pay in bankroll interest at the end of the month.

[darkheroo]

Can you break down the formula that you use to make these calculations? It sounds a bit crazy that you can make more than 30% of the investment capital you deposited, back in profit in a year.  

I am also getting security certificate warnings about your site, so I do not know if your SSL certificate are legit? In any way, it is nice to see those potential profits, but can we trust the calculations?

I am now breaking down the exact formula on the front page of the site to make it clear for everyone and it's as follows: (your bankroll stake) * (daily bankroll profit profit)

To predict future profits, this is the formula used:

(your bankroll stake) * (average daily profit of the last 60 days)

[JollyGood]

If all the statistics are coming from the front page of the Bustabit website (and you are applying those formulas) at least we understand where the data is coming from and how you are using it. I would still not be sure about the future potential bankroll profits but it is a great tool to look up past profits based on the date and amounts invested.

Apart from the explanation below do you have any other updates on the website?

I am now breaking down the exact formula on the front page of the site to make it clear for everyone and it's as follows: (your bankroll stake) * (daily bankroll profit profit)

To predict future profits, this is the formula used:

(your bankroll stake) * (average daily profit of the last 60 days)