People are too focused on history repeating itself

[Natsuu]

History repeating itself is common scenario in crypto market in both bullrun and bearish market since there’s always a correction after a pump and a recovery after dump. There’s nothing wrong to think about that. It’s only wrong if you just keep thinking on it that result you to unable to purchase crypto just because you wait for that bottom.

I believe people that think like this are those who will purchase at the top when they are already FOM O when Bitcoin pump hard.

Right. It is important to recognize historical patterns in the crypto market but waiting too long for the perfect moment can lead to missed opportunities. Timing is crucial and being overly cautious might result in buying at higher prices during FOMO situations. It's essential to find a balance between analyzing trends and making informed decisions.

[bittraffic]

Bitcoin usually don't need a blackswan, it only needs the halving for it to kick start the bull run. But lets say the blackswan in 2020 was indeed the Covid, during that time people received their stimulus packages. The get money for free.

This time there is no stimulus but somebody figured its the ETF that is going to be the blackswan. If we are to keep waiting for it then maybe its not really the blackswan we wait for.

[Zaguru12]

The peculiarities of next year's events are undeniable. Those still expecting another dump before the anticipated bull market might be left behind.  As we approach next year, it is becoming increasingly clear that we will see many positive news that will make next year's halving the greatest we have seen so far. Just imagine Bitcoin ETF approval by Jabuaty 2024 following Bitcoin halving by April, we don't need to think deep to realise that this will be exceptionally explosive.

Seriously it will be too risky to wait for a dump maybe next year to invest in bitcoin, my advice has always been invest or accumulate whenever you have the opportunity there is no perfect time to do that than when you have the funds. Although if you ask me I would say yes I expect a bitcoin correction after all this pump before the main halving it self.

Yes history doesn’t repeat itself but as for bitcoin I don’t see any other thing that can actually give one a very good speculative idea than just looking back at the past history. The likes of FTX or any other exchange collapse are just short time hype, the real black swan will be when we are face with a prolonged recession and interest rates gets higher, or when a world war breaks out. Aside this two cases bitcoin wouldn’t face any major fall

[Litzki1990]

People definitely want the price of Bitcoin to go back to where it once was. We who are Bitcoin users never want the value of Bitcoin to go down rather we always hope that the value of Bitcoin goes up a lot. Bitcoin Price Hits Record High We want Bitcoin to touch its high price again. The crypto market is completely different because you cannot say anything with certainty here. Although we are waiting for the market to move to a better position, the market can go to any position. Don't know if history will repeat itself but we want the Bitcoin market to stay at its peak price again.

[Woodie]

Fast forward to this bear market, many people really believe that we haven't seen the bottom yet, and some believe that the next black swan event will bring the last bottom for Bitcoin, I do have some questions about all this.

Tbh this bottom everyone keeps talking about is to generalized!!

If people missed the price of the 100s which was a real discounted price then let's forget about it coming this low as many users are more than ready to buy should it go lower than expected which will push it back up..

So whatever bottom we are anticipating Is what we seeing now.

1. In the past Bitcoin bear market, how many black swan event happened at the time?

If we are going to add big exchange hacks to be black swan events then we could consider Mtgox and Ftx hack to be such events...

2. I did my own research and black swan event started in 2020 and it's also in the chart history, I could be wrong but correct me if I am, but the black swan event happens cos of COVID in 2020, what makes you believe that another will happen?

In some circles the categorise the COVID19 pandemic to be both a white and black swan event because it would have being contained in China had they blown the whistle early but they kept about it until it spread like wildfire then the world was made aware of this way to late which caused unforeseeable damage.

3. What if the Black Swan event of this present bear market was the FTX Collapse?

I don't know, regulators would have picked on Sam's fraudulent activities especially that financial crimes all happen in the past and not present for them to be detected ...and him not being a well experienced CEO in the crypto circles it was expected that he would f@#& up which imo makes this a White Swan event.

[Z-tight]

I think we are over the effects of ftx collapse and i don't believe it would have any effect on the bull run, except another exchange bites the dust during the period leading up to the halving event, and that is something that can happen, but for now i cannot predict that.

We cannot predict the future, and all we have is history to have an idea of what could happen, if there is a black swan event that happens during the halving period, then it would be an unexpected one that wasn't part of the 'script' in history and we have to accept it. I believe the present economic situation could also affect the halving, but we have to wait and see.

[kryptqnick]

Covid was unexpected by the public but actually predictable and predicted a few years earlier based on scientific evidence as a major potential challenge for humanity. But looking past that, Bitcoin recovered pretty quickly and managed to go on a bull run when the world was still frozen by the pandemic. It was around $8k-$9k before the pandemic announcement, then it hit nearly $5k following the announcement, but by the beginning of May (so, less than 2 months later) it was back to its pre-pandemic level.
In my opinion, it shows that even a pretty huge 'black swan' event can be handled really fast and really well by the market. 2 months is nothing, it was a really fast recovery. And as for FTX, its impact was way smaller, as others have already mentioned.

[ImThour]

And they are correct, Bitcoin goes on a 4 year cycle and that's what is going to happen once again and history will repeat however not each move will be of similar percentage gain/decrease.
With the help of previous cycle charts, I was able to decode the down move of at least 50%. And it went correct. And the up move of 10x will be correct too from the bottom price of $15.4k really soon.

[philipma1957]

The black swan event in 2020 was one of the events that caused the price to make a rapid correction, but the price was able to rise again due to subsequent economic policies that approved stimulus packages and it was easy to obtain loans with an interest rate close to zero, and this matter may happen again if the Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates initially. From the second quarter of next year.
Therefore, during the period of 2020, I think that the price dealt poorly with one event, which was the collapse of Luna more than FTX.

if things go well, history will repeat itself, but it will be closer to what happened in 2016/2017.

I never have be a super bull.

but if we are in the

2015
2016
2017 loop

then
2023. 42k dec 1 48k dec 31
2024. a quick jan sell off to 40k a slow grind up to 65k by dec 2024
2025. at least 500k by nov-dec


So I am hoping to see a super bull market.

[abel1337]

The black swan event in 2020 was one of the events that caused the price to make a rapid correction, but the price was able to rise again due to subsequent economic policies that approved stimulus packages and it was easy to obtain loans with an interest rate close to zero, and this matter may happen again if the Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates initially. From the second quarter of next year.
Therefore, during the period of 2020, I think that the price dealt poorly with one event, which was the collapse of Luna more than FTX.

if things go well, history will repeat itself, but it will be closer to what happened in 2016/2017.

I never have be a super bull.

but if we are in the

2015
2016
2017 loop

then
2023. 42k dec 1 48k dec 31
2024. a quick jan sell off to 40k a slow grind up to 65k by dec 2024
2025. at least 500k by nov-dec


So I am hoping to see a super bull market.

This is wild but I lowkey wanting to get at that level. I personally expect to reach 100k next bull market, expecting it to go past 100k is what motivates me to continue to accumulate more bitcoin but yeah it's hard to really pinpoint what price bitcoin can go, all we have is the historical events and charts that we can use to speculate where we are headed.

Reaching 500k as a bitcoin price never really slipped my mind, though I hope that we can see it next bull market LOL.

[danadc]

What I believe is that a way can and wants to be created to be able to do everything better like in 2017 that everyone expected , and we are in a time similar to that because the price of bitcoin rose in the month of December and after that it was when in that time it reached $20k and that was a boom everyone believed that it was going to reach $50k and everyone bought and bought bitcoin, I want to repeat that, what I don't want it to be repeated is that then the price went up a lot because I suffered a lot time to rise again, the good thing is that when bitcoin rises , it reaches higher and higher, because then it reached 70 thousand USD and that was something that I liked.

[Crypt0Gore]

When the market is bullish everyone then bullish and when it's bearish everyone turn bearish, it's almost like people don't want the market to dump from here on, you'd better to lose guide, because people who believe the bear market is over are the next group of people that will leave the market if a last effective dump happens.

I am not going to let the fear of market dump to rob me of my crypto assets, 2020 seem like a bad year but thanks to that Covid many people are able to buy Bitcoin for a cheaper price, after the crash it doesn't even take too long before the recovery starts, it's like the world was waiting for that opportunity, every big dollars found it's way into the market and Bitcoin started surging hard.

It's possible that the same thing will happen in 2024, and it's also possible that we already seen the bottom in 2022 but why care so much about this? If it happened you should take the advantages because it's a new opportunity, oh yes it could happen, so make sure you gather some USD so that you won't miss the opportunity.

[jeraldskie11]

2. I did my own research and black swan event started in 2020 and it's also in the chart history, I could be wrong but correct me if I am, but the black swan event happens cos of COVID in 2020, what makes you believe that another will happen?

It does not imply that if a disaster or tragedy occurs, the price of cryptocurrency will completely collapse. In fact, if you stock, there is a good chance that the price will fall significantly. And cryptocurrency is not the same as equities or FX. If something awful happens, I believe that the price of cryptocurrency will rise due to its volatility.

What if the first one ( 2020 crash ) was an unexpected crash to manipulate the masses and the Second one is to make people keep waiting and waiting for something that's not coming until it's too late?

I feel that there is always market manipulation. We can't always tell when and where the manipulation occurs, but we can take steps to prevent being deceived. Backtested plans combined with discipline are very important.

[ZAINmalik75]

1. In the past Bitcoin bear market, how many black swan event happened at the time?

I don't get in what manner you said Covid was the black swan for the crypto market, because in Covid the trading volume increased, people sitting at home started to trade in crypto, and they got motivated by its usage. But talking hypnotically, if COVID was the black swan in 2020, then the Chinese ban were the black swan back in time. which caused the crypto market to lose a lot of attraction. The events were around 6 to 10 times, I think it's a hard guess.

2. I did my own research and black swan event started in 2020 and it's also in the chart history, I could be wrong but correct me if I am, but the black swan event happens cos of COVID in 2020, what makes you believe that another will happen?

How can you call covid the only black swan event because according to Wikipedia

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

This means there were black swans in the crypto market too which was totally unpredictable and affected the market hard.

3. What if the Black Swan event of this present bear market was the FTX Collapse?

I think it was and then the lawsuits from the SEC against different cryptocurrencies can be count as Black swan.

[khiholangkang]

The Covid dump had a much greater impact on the market than the FTX collapse, so it seems to me that comparing these events in terms of significance is not very correct. Frankly, I expect that we have yet to encounter a black swan in this cycle and this will be the last major dump before the bull market begins. It’s difficult for me to say what this could be, perhaps some kind of new pandemic, or a significant escalation of the military conflict, but so far Bitcoin is not very responsive to any negative news, which means it’s not time yet.

So far, Bitcoin is not so responsive with some that occur in the world today, some of them such as The Fed still maintain the benchmark interest rates with fairly high numbers, besides that the Middle East conflict and began to heat up to get a reaction from a neighboring country to take part In this conflict, it does not make Bitcoin shifted to the previous price.
I think for today the bullish encouragement is greater than bearish, because we will move to Halving Bitcoin, we will also look forward to ETF Bitcoin present among institutional investors that have the potential to increase the mass adoption of Bitcoin spots to stock investors, gold and others.

But to be a concern also that Binance has several problems that have not been completed, I feel afraid also if Binance follows like FTX, it will give a big blow to the market if it occurs.

History repeating itself is common scenario in crypto market in both bullrun and bearish market since there’s always a correction after a pump and a recovery after dump. There’s nothing wrong to think about that. It’s only wrong if you just keep thinking on it that result you to unable to purchase crypto just because you wait for that bottom.

I believe people that think like this are those who will purchase at the top when they are already FOM O when Bitcoin pump hard.

I agree with your opinion, but the conclusion is not on Fomo, because in my opinion he analyzes because of doubts that exist in him so he calculates it, he may be more careful in investing. Waiting for the lowest price today in the current cycle is silly, because we have touched it at the $ 15K level, and that is the end of 2022.

[Bushdark]

What I believe is that a way can and wants to be created to be able to do everything better like in 2017 that everyone expected , and we are in a time similar to that because the price of bitcoin rose in the month of December and after that it was when in that time it reached $20k and that was a boom everyone believed that it was going to reach $50k and everyone bought and bought bitcoin, I want to repeat that, what I don't want it to be repeated is that then the price went up a lot because I suffered a lot time to rise again, the good thing is that when bitcoin rises , it reaches higher and higher, because then it reached 70 thousand USD and that was something that I liked.

The price of Bitcoin would keep moving whether bullishly or bearish but what I know is that we should be expecting a bull market sooner before the end of the this year. It is true that the market is still ranging and this would be a good time for us to buy now as a low and affordable price so that we can sell when the bull market finally comes. We need to keep our eyes on what is about to come not the silence movement that us happening in the market. Bullish would be a moon coin soon so we don't have to panic at all even for one second.

[mindrust]

So what’s your point? There will always be some unexpected stuff happening in the markets that’s just how life is. Otherwise everybody would know the next move in the markets and nobody would bet against it. In this situation nobody would make any money because everyone would be on the same side of the trade. Barcelona F.C. has to lose every once in a while so those guys who make surprise bets can win sometimes.

Bitcoin will go up and down like it always did before. We shouldn’t focus on the prices that much. The fundamentals are way more important. As long aa bitcoin network is up and running, there is nothing to worry about.

[karabiber]

2. I did my own research and black swan event started in 2020 and it's also in the chart history, I could be wrong but correct me if I am, but the black swan event happens cos of COVID in 2020, what makes you believe that another will happen?

The crypto market is currently fixated on the spot Bitcoin ETF approval and the mood is positive. What if the opposite happens, can we talk about a black swan effect? I think yes. In the absence of a confirmation and a strong perception in the crypto market that will perhaps start a bull run, the markets can be expected to react as sharply as covid and ftx. In this case, it is inevitable that we will experience the black swan effect. With a negative decision, a new FUD will be created and institutions will leave the market. Because a negative news in a market that is clamped on ethics approval will accelerate the exit of more institutions from the market, weaken the increase in competition and slow down the visibility of cryptocurrencies.

[Honyek]

History repeating itself is possible but not all the time. The idea of black swan reverting the price of bitcoin and possibly heading back to the expected bottom price is not possible at this time. Considering what is happening, bitcoin price will continue to go up, drop a little, and move up again, even till halving, and afterwards, until the end of the bull run.

[OgNasty]

The thing about Bitcoin is that it’s literally programmed to be cyclical. The halving nearly mandates that the future will rhyme with the past. This will be true until it isn’t, and when it is no longer true the losses of investment for mining companies will be so great that they are almost forced to prop up the value of Bitcoin to stay alive.