India is the new economic leader of global south. And replacement for China?...

[Kakmakr]

India 2023 population is estimated at 1,428,627,663 people and about 17.76% of the total world population. India ranks number 1 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population. The population density in India is 481 per Km2 (1,244 people per mi2). The median age in India are about 25 years.

China population is equivalent to 17.72% of the total world population. China ranks number 2 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population. The population density in China is 152 per Km2 (393 people per mi2). The median age in China is 39.0 years.

Source : Worldometer

So, with India you have a much younger work force and probably also a lot of poverty ....so you can have cheaper labor cost. (Even though the poverty has significantly improved in India over the last couple of years)

China on the other hand has a much more disciplined workforce and they are more technologically advanced, so most manufacturing are done with robots and more efficient labor. 

[DrBeer]

India 2023 population is estimated at 1,428,627,663 people and about 17.76% of the total world population. India ranks number 1 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population. The population density in India is 481 per Km2 (1,244 people per mi2). The median age in India are about 25 years.

China population is equivalent to 17.72% of the total world population. China ranks number 2 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population. The population density in China is 152 per Km2 (393 people per mi2). The median age in China is 39.0 years.

Source : Worldometer

So, with India you have a much younger work force and probably also a lot of poverty ....so you can have cheaper labor cost. (Even though the poverty has significantly improved in India over the last couple of years)

China on the other hand has a much more disciplined workforce and they are more technologically advanced, so most manufacturing are done with robots and more efficient labor. 

Exactly! China has a growing problem of aging population and falling population growth.
India's middle age is a great resource for economic development ! Plus we must admit that India has a very good level of education, not all the population, but people are eager to learn, to get new professions, to develop their potential. And this has a very high investment attractiveness.
And a nuance - low level of income, on the one hand it is bad, on the other hand - again attractive for investors. At the same time, the inflow of investments will provide new jobs, competitive salaries, which will positively affect the situation in the country

I will repeat 2 arguments:
1. The success of China is not so much due to some well-thought-out internal policies of the Chinese leadership in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, but thanks to Western investments, Western interest in China, and Western technology and money. Until this moment, China remained a not very developed, largely agricultural country.
2. India's democratic vector, convenient geographical location, adequate politics, large population and not very high standard of living of the population (no offense here, but this is also a factor), are much more attractive than today's China. By the way, at Biden’s meeting with Xi Jinping, one of the issues discussed was the US refusal to withdraw its business from China. Because This is a REAL problem for the Chinese economy. And American companies need to move all this somewhere... And this is already a question in favor of India with a very high probability.

I agree with both the points. But at the same time, the conditions that are prevalent in India are existent in other countries as well. Examples are Indonesia, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan and Vietnam are a few examples. Investors are obviously going to select one country where they will find less amount of bureaucracy and red tape. The main issue with India is that there is a lot of corruption and red tape. International investors, unless they tie up with one of the Indian partners, find it very tough to do business in India.

Yes, there's Indonesia, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Vietnam..... But India has more advantages - from choosing a Western vector of development, and a policy that does not greatly affect business, to a more favorable geographical location, including a convenient "transit" sea route. Plus a huge territory where it is possible to develop big business, logistics and infrastructure. This is another additional advantage of India over other countries in the region.


Today, China is trying in every possible way to show its "non-acceptance" of India as a competitor of China with whom China has no means of confronting in the near term.

Xi's refusal to go to the G20 summit, for example, was telling. Moreover, his dislike for India was much higher than his "love" for his servant - Putin....

The reason is banal - for a year India was the party that hosted the G20 participants.  In turn, Xi tried not to appear there at all and not to raise the status of these events with his presence. According to the political scientist, this confrontation will continue in the future....

China's attempt to "deny" India is a good indicator of what China really fears...


It seems that the topic of Indian leadership is not just my assumptions, but also a completely serious idea!

"World dominance in 25 years. How India is going to displace China and become the main manufacturing hub in the world. Bloomberg tells."

....Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to make India a developed country that would compete with China. Bloomberg took a look at the current state of affairs in the country and collected the opinions of analysts to assess India's chances of success. Forbes chose the main thing from the material.

India's economic transformation is gaining momentum.

Global manufacturers are planning to expand beyond China, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to seize the opportunity. The government is allocating nearly 20% of this fiscal year's budget to capital investment, the highest in a decade.

US-China rivalry is benefiting India as companies look to expand beyond China. Thus, three key Taiwanese Apple suppliers have secured incentives from the Modi government to increase production and export of smartphones. From April to December, shipments of iPhones to the country more than doubled and exceeded $2.5 billion.

As traditional manufacturing hubs slow down operations in China and Germany, for example, there is a need to find another country to revitalize the global economy. Morgan Stanley forecasts that India will account for a fifth of global expansion this decade, allowing it to achieve more than $400 billion in output growth.

Plans to increase the country's productive capacity are not new to Modi's policies. Since 2014, he has been running the “Work in India!” campaign, trying to emulate the success of China, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, which managed to join the list of the richest economies in the world by producing the world's desired goods.


Unfortunately, I didn’t find it in English, but Google Translate will easily correct the situation:
https://forbes.ua/ru/svit/dosyagti-svitovogo-dominuvannya-yak-indiya-zbiraetsya-posunuti-kitay-stati-golovnim-virobnichim-khabom-u-sviti-rozpovidae-bloomberg-23012023-11247

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[Sithara007]

Being an Indian, I would say that it will be almost impossible for India to overtake China. The success of China can be attributed to the fact that there is minimal government intervention and almost zero regulations. But in India, hardly any importance is given to merit and with each passing year the government intervention is increasing. In the state of Bihar recently the quota in education and jobs for "backward classes" were increased to 75%. That means that 75% of the employees will be selected based on their caste and just 25% will be selected on the basis of their merit. Given this, how can India overtake China?

[DrBeer]

Being an Indian, I would say that it will be almost impossible for India to overtake China. The success of China can be attributed to the fact that there is minimal government intervention and almost zero regulations. But in India, hardly any importance is given to merit and with each passing year the government intervention is increasing. In the state of Bihar recently the quota in education and jobs for "backward classes" were increased to 75%. That means that 75% of the employees will be selected based on their caste and just 25% will be selected on the basis of their merit. Given this, how can India overtake China?

"Communist capitalism" is a thing of the past. Now Xi Jinping has "broken" it all. Totalitarianism, total control, brutal influence of the state on business and attempts to gain control over private business, reduction of freedoms - both human and financial, militarization - all this is not good for the Chinese economy. Just because China has become the largest economy with an exponential growth curve in 30 years does not mean it will continue to be so. The world remembers many examples of larger objects self-destructing..... So "nothing lasts forever under the moon", and even more so if the government is also helping to destroy the economy.

[WillyAp]

As if one country is homegenically one single body.
How good and cultured is the common man? How good is education in the rural zones?

That is where a country advances, not those mainstream points of "progress". Scandinavia has a better Rep, than most countries. The Baltic states. .

[0t3p0t]

So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system"?

Well for me India is undoubtedly has potential when it come to technological advancements but China currently is holding the crown of having the most successful manufacturing industries due to it's high tech and advance machineries. But unfortunately for China, due to it's agressive and deceitful behavior towards it's neighbors, foreign investments were backing out and this is now on India and other country's advantage as investors are now pouring huge investments in countries like India, Vietnam and the Philippines. China's provocative moves might backfire in it's economic advancements in the coming years and this is alarming on their behalf.

[Fortify]

India is the new leader of the global south .... And a replacement for China ?

China has recently started to openly surrender its position. both politically and economically.
politics is not the place to discuss, but the economy leaves much to be desired. Although it is partly a consequence of politics )

But to the main point - in the "Global South" today there is a situation when yesterday's leader, China, can no longer fulfill this role (although it wants to), and no one can take this place except India, due to many reasons.

At the same time, India looks much more attractive to the "Global West" than China, which has decided to go into a dictatorship inside, and has a rather dubious foreign policy. China has ceased to be a profitable global factory, plus purely political contradictions with the West. It was the outflow of Western investments, and the decline in demand of the Western market for products manufactured in China, that became the catalyst that accelerated the 3 processes:
- Import growth
- Reduced exports.
- And as a consequence, a shrinking trade surplus.

At the same time, a very complicated situation is brewing inside China with a chain of bankruptcies of budget-forming companies. Of course, China will hide it, but as they say "you can't cheat arithmetic, and 2+3 will never be 10". Another problem is the relocation of Western assembly sites from China. Large regional high-tech companies are also leaving Chinese sites - for example, Samsung.

And guess where all this is moving to ? That's right - to INDIA ! Stable, predictable, adopting the Western vector of development, and moving away from contacts with "dubious countries". India does not "beat in hysterics of dedolarization", does not conduct dubious negotiations, and does not support economic terrorism of some other countries against the world economy. India benefits from stability, long-term mutually beneficial relations with the developed world, a well-deserved place in the world economy and financial system, and realization of its regional ambitions, which China is beginning to lose by failing to implement 2 projects:
- "Yuanization" of the BRICS countries
- An attempt to "put the same BRICS club members on the needle" of importing Chinese products.
It was a poorly concealed but absolutely understandable attempt to save the economy, but ...

What about India? A country with a huge territory and great human potential, developed industry, and long-established ties with the Western world. India has a very good education, and not a small middle class, with good education from western educational institutions. In India, stealing Western technology is not part of the economy as it is in China, for example. In terms of logistics to EU and African countries, India is more conveniently located. Plus in India there is no problem of population aging, which started to give itself in China "thanks to" the policy - "one family - one child". It is also worth paying attention to the IT market - it is perfectly developed in India and continues to compete with other markets. Plus - wiser, more balanced and liberal business policy is what China is losing and will not contribute to the free development of the economy.


So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?

It was inevitable when Xi Jinping decided to close China back up and become a dictator for life - it is an unfriendly move towards business in a country that had a tenuous relationship with capitalism at the best of times. They got rich from opening up and allowing much more freedom, now they want to suppress it again, like all authoritarian leaders do, in order to stroke their own egos or twisted perception of their own countries' importance. I hope India knocks them off, because at the very least they pretend to be democratic, even if sometimes things get a bit turbulent with political parties wrestling for control. I hope a lot more trade goes to India because it has a lot more to offer the world.

[bocyaj]

Being an Indian, I would say that it will be almost impossible for India to overtake China. The success of China can be attributed to the fact that there is minimal government intervention and almost zero regulations. But in India, hardly any importance is given to merit and with each passing year the government intervention is increasing. In the state of Bihar recently the quota in education and jobs for "backward classes" were increased to 75%. That means that 75% of the employees will be selected based on their caste and just 25% will be selected on the basis of their merit. Given this, how can India overtake China?

It’s true opinion from your side,I had really appreciated it.Because the economy of the China is not the imaginable one to the India.Even though the population of both the country was almost equal and in future India may overtake China.But the government of China using their people as their power to lead their economy.India people also had huge potential,in many countries the top position in the government was owned by the Indian Origin.But many Indian inventions was not recognised by their own country government.As I had seen many documentary related to this issue.But still Indian government was not ready to change their policies and political influence in the scheme which only favoured the other country corporate.The politicians should changed for this significant change in Indian economy.

[coupable]

As if one country is homegenically one single body.
How good and cultured is the common man? How good is education in the rural zones?

That is where a country advances, not those mainstream points of "progress". Scandinavia has a better Rep, than most countries. The Baltic states. .

These are all indicators of the country's economic development, and we find that India still has a lot of strides to go in achieving this. I agree with you that India is still far from being the leader of the global economy, even though it is on the path of development, especially after the expansion of the BRICS alliance, which now includes a group of the world's largest economies.
One of the other elements that stands as an obstacle to India becoming an economic leader is its ongoing differences with China, which the BRICS alliance has not succeeded in overcoming because it remains an economic alliance and has not yet transformed into a political alliance. Also, the state's public policies are determined by the government's vision, and therefore they can change once the government changes. It is very easy for an extremist party to rise to power and erase everything that the government before it achieved.
India has the potential to become an economic leader, but the will is not enough.

[leonair]

Nope, and it will take a few more decades for India to achieve the manufacturing ability of China.

But Western countries realized it years back and that is why they have been moving their part of manufacturing plants to India since post Covid era. For example, Apple invested and started their manufacturing plants in India so that in the future they won't be trapped under China's monopoly but as of now most of the core level technology is still imported from China to India for example semiconductors and over time things may change.

India is a big country and it has a huge population because of its high manufacturing volume and some of the world's biggest companies have CEOs from India. The CEO of the world's biggest tech giant Google is Indian.  India is very advanced in terms of technology so India is growing economically. But India has not yet become like China. China is the top exporting country so it is natural that their economic growth will be high.  So India will not be able to become like China very easily in terms of economy

[Barikui1]

I think it is very much possible, but it will take indian more than a decade to reach the height of china in terms of industrial output.
Look at china's industrial system, and recently they are forming a very strong relationship with Russia who have the raw materials required to take there economy and trades the a different level.
I really do believe that it will take india years to even match their industrial output, but as for now India is not ready yet for such a position now.

[jrrsparkles]

Nope, and it will take a few more decades for India to achieve the manufacturing ability of China.

But Western countries realized it years back and that is why they have been moving their part of manufacturing plants to India since post Covid era. For example, Apple invested and started their manufacturing plants in India so that in the future they won't be trapped under China's monopoly but as of now most of the core level technology is still imported from China to India for example semiconductors and over time things may change.

India is a big country and it has a huge population because of its high manufacturing volume and some of the world's biggest companies have CEOs from India. The CEO of the world's biggest tech giant Google is Indian.  India is very advanced in terms of technology so India is growing economically. But India has not yet become like China. China is the top exporting country so it is natural that their economic growth will be high.  So India will not be able to become like China very easily in terms of economy

India has manpower but still lacks in infrastructure compared to China, Indians becoming CEO of tech companies has nothing to do with the Indian economy but it is a strategical move by the respective companies to hire more employees for effective salaries since their managing skills is better and they can coordinate things well too.

[HONDACD125]

I think it is very much possible, but it will take indian more than a decade to reach the height of china in terms of industrial output.
Look at china's industrial system, and recently they are forming a very strong relationship with Russia who have the raw materials required to take there economy and trades the a different level.
I really do believe that it will take india years to even match their industrial output, but as for now India is not ready yet for such a position now.

There is no doubt that China is ahead in industrial production. China's industrial system is very strong, but India's progress in the last decade cannot be ignored. India's economy is also improving and its GDP growth is also increasing well. In such a situation, there are very positive indications regarding the GDP growth of the Indian economy. In terms of relations, India also has strong relations with various countries, Rather, India is ahead of China in this regard.

 I think India will not need that much time to match China's industrial output, because India also has a lot of young power generation, and the country that has young power generation goes ahead in development very quickly. The manner in which India is progressing, their Chandrayaan mission landed on the moon some time ago, It can be inferred that India is fully prepared for this competition. Like China, India also has a strong system and a strong system also plays an important role in the economic, social and industrial development of a country.

[qwertyup23]

I don't quite see India on it's way to replacing China as the West's new manufacturing powerhouse yet. For now it seems more like a matter of companies hedging their bets, given the fragility of the supply chain that was unveiled by Covid and China's labour cost slowly catching up.

Still, India seems in a far better position then just a decade ago. Give it a few more years and we'll see who comes out on top.

I definitely agree with your statement.

While there are huge companies who have started to shift their manufacturing plant from China to India, I doubt that the latter would replace the former in a short amount of time.

Like what has been mentioned, the Indian government has provided tons of incentives for Apple in order for the tech company to start its manufacturing plant on their country. According to this ARTICLE, it costed apple an estimate loss of $1 billion every week due to political inconsistencies, covid lockdowns, and business bankruptcies in China which ultimately affected their business model.¹

While other companies have started to do the same, it will still take some time for everything to be materialized. Like you mentioned, probably it would take a minimum of ten (10) years for companies to neutralize its resources and conduct their business outside China.


1 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-production-of-apple-iphones-has-been-moving-from-china-to-india#:~:text=Then%20last%20year%2C%20COVID%2D19,more%20business%20outside%20of%20China.

[WillyAp]

While other companies have started to do the same, it will still take some time for everything to be materialized. Like you mentioned, probably it would take a minimum of ten (10) years for companies to neutralize its resources and conduct their business outside China.


1 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-production-of-apple-iphones-has-been-moving-from-china-to-india#:~:text=Then%20last%20year%2C%20COVID%2D19,more%20business%20outside%20of%20China.

I think you underestimate the private corporate sector.
The only thing slowing down the private sector is state interrventions.

[Renampun]

...

I don't think the low wage in a country is an advantage their economic growth, because low earnings people is also closely related to their ability to expenditure which means that they are not a good market. Low wages may lead to attract foreign investment, but low-wage workers have limited purchasing power, hindering domestic consumption and stifling demand for any products. The reasons companies or investment come into a country are not only for a good business to start, but also a good market for products to sell. Sustainable economic growth is the main reason for a country to gain power in global.

In fact, when low wages become something that is determined by a country, there will be subsidies from the government that help reduce the burden on people who have low wages, but the issue of low wages has become something that is discussed in many countries, even my own country Indonesia, might be interesting. investment interest but economic growth will be very stagnant.
From my point of view low wages are not much different from modern colonialism, but it is all a decision of the government of each country, because investors may be interested but large social disparities will not be avoided.
However, if the india government wants to compete with China, they must set low wages for workers in their country so that investors are interested.

[DrBeer]

China on the other hand has a much more disciplined workforce and they are more technologically advanced, so most manufacturing are done with robots and more efficient labor. 

It is important to remember here, and this is the most important thing - the success of the Chinese economy is, first of all, Western investments and Western technologies.. That is. Western money that the West invested in China, as well as technology - equipment, machines, assembly lines, documentation, training of specialists.... Without this, China would remain a huge agricultural country, the third world. I hope there is no need to remind you what China produced in the 70-90s of the last century? And what did it begin to produce after the West began investing there and importing technology? And how China is now alarmed by the increasing access to Western technologies and the outflow of Western investment.
India is now very attractive to Western businesses as an alternative to China. Even so, China is becoming so toxic that Western businesses are FORCED to look for alternative territories. India is actually an ideal fit - the same region, convenient geographical location, and much more that was previously voiced

[WillyAp]

In fact, when low wages become something that is determined by a country, there will be subsidies from the government that help reduce the burden on people who have low wages, but the issue of low wages has become something that is discussed in many countries, even my own country Indonesia, might be interesting.

Rather by the narrow vision of Business owners.
They do not see that a well paid employee is also your ambassador, your client in the future and brings in more business.

I was present at a meeting where a successful businessman offered a 50$ Wage for a 6 days a week programmer position. I could not believe it.

[DrBeer]

...

I don't think the low wage in a country is an advantage their economic growth, because low earnings people is also closely related to their ability to expenditure which means that they are not a good market. Low wages may lead to attract foreign investment, but low-wage workers have limited purchasing power, hindering domestic consumption and stifling demand for any products. The reasons companies or investment come into a country are not only for a good business to start, but also a good market for products to sell. Sustainable economic growth is the main reason for a country to gain power in global.

In fact, when low wages become something that is determined by a country, there will be subsidies from the government that help reduce the burden on people who have low wages, but the issue of low wages has become something that is discussed in many countries, even my own country Indonesia, might be interesting. investment interest but economic growth will be very stagnant.
From my point of view low wages are not much different from modern colonialism, but it is all a decision of the government of each country, because investors may be interested but large social disparities will not be avoided.
However, if the india government wants to compete with China, they must set low wages for workers in their country so that investors are interested.

Low wages - yes, this is one part of the investment attractiveness. This is a problem, of course, and a problem of the local government, but for companies, a low wage component is a reduction in production costs. This means a more competitive price of goods/services.
But when investors come - the income level of the local population will grow. As it happened in China - no one will work there now "for food". And it is also a benefit for the country receiving investments and investors !
Additional benefits - development of industries, improvement of economic situation in the regions, additional revenues to the budget, infrastructure development.

[so98nn]

They are playing strategically. Its amazing to see how their involvement with different warfares and global issues is always and all the time based on diplomatic ways. That is what making them win the current era economics. They are being vigilant and they do not switch sides at all. If they are friends with one then they are friends with that nation at all cost no matter what other countries say about them. They handled everything perfectly from pandemic till different wars from middle globe and neighbouring countries. I think they do not need anymore certification on how to act as global leader whenever it is necessary. They have perfect leaders, perfect system to tackle the internal and external affairs. Imagine being most populated country with whole new realm of problems yet they stand still when it comes to building diplomatic relationship management.