Glassnode: accumulation of BTC outpaces issuance of new coins by 2.4 times

[Yamane_Keto]

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-46-2023/

Glassnode published a monthly analysis of the onchain that compares supply levels prior to Bitcoin halving, which indicates tightness in Bitcoin supply that has reached historic levels.

Assessing Available Supply

The chart below covers several supply heuristics using 'coin-age' as the main input, measuring the time since a coin was last spent on-chain. Short-Term Holder Supply is currently at multi-year lows of 2.33M BTC, and captures coins up to 155-days old that are statistically the most likely to be spent.

Glassnode developed another supply heuristic that monitors the spending behavior of wallets, classified into Illiquid, Liquid and Highly Liquid buckets. The latter two are shown below which represent wallets that both receive coins and also spend a significant proportion of them.

There is significant overlap between Liquid and Highly Liquid supply and Exchange Balances for obvious reasons. This multi-year downtrend is visible again, suggesting coins are moving out of Exchange wallets and towards more Illiquid wallets with little history of spending.

The analysis is in-depth, so I tried to quote the points above, but you can refer to the link above to read it.
'Available supply' is at historic lows and 'supply storage' This may not be a price prediction signal but more people are preferring to hold Bitcoin.

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[Don Pedro Dinero]

I don't know if I trust the implicit conclusion of this, that the price can only go up. I remember seeing similar analysis at the end of 2021, shortly before the price started to fall. And by this I don't mean that the price is going to go down now, because at this point in the cycle we are in, it is normal for 2024 to be positive, but there are things that escape so much analysis.

'Available supply' is at historic lows and 'supply storage' This may not be a price prediction signal but more people are preferring to hold Bitcoin.

I do read it as meaning that the price will tend to rise, as we all know that it does after the halvings due to supply reduction, if we add that more people holding bitcoins means even more supply reduction.

[UchihaSarada]

Bitcoin market grows very fast and its total trading volume grows fast too. I don't know how Glassnode can scrape data and how they analyzed it to come to that conclusion.

But you know the interesting point from their report is why did they choose this time, when the Bitcoin market is like overcooked, to release this information?

If this is fact, they had to realize this fact for a long time, not recently. The time of insightful information release is very doubtful. I believe they decided to publish this information to hype the market more. When people are FOMO, they are more easily believe in whatever they read.

[albert0bsd]

I don't know how Glassnode can scrape data and how they analyzed it to come to that conclusion.

Blockchain is public, and most of the addresses of the CEX are know, for example: 34xp4vRoCGJym3xR7yCVPFHoCNxv4Twseo

.

So any move between outside to that address to some unknow wallet is considered that the balance was moved outside of the CEX

[Doan9269]

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-46-2023/

Glassnode published a monthly analysis of the onchain that compares supply levels prior to Bitcoin halving, which indicates tightness in Bitcoin supply that has reached historic levels.

This also could mean that there should be more to be expected this coming halving in bitcoin demand and supply, there's also going to be the unprecedented and unexpected display of the market volatility and all this will all triggers the rising of the market to form a new all time high level, we should expect more coming and to be unfolded at the course of the year end because now is the time we are beginning to see all every necessary actions coming before next year halving with the bitcoin market price.

[tbct_mt2]

This also could mean that there should be more to be expected this coming halving in bitcoin demand and supply, there's also going to be the unprecedented and unexpected display of the market volatility and all this will all triggers the rising of the market to form a new all time high level, we should expect more coming and to be unfolded at the course of the year end because now is the time we are beginning to see all every necessary actions coming before next year halving with the bitcoin market price.

With time, Bitcoin and blockchain industry become more famous and the adoption for them becomes bigger. Even without halvings, without block subsidy halve, demand on Bitcoin will still be bigger with time. With subsidy halve, it will increase the imbalance between new supply from block subsidy and demand from people.

As principle of supply and demand, price will be higher with time. Halving helps to make the imbalance between supply and demand, or more correctly new supply and new demand, more skew to demand.