China's real-estate sector is NOT doing well, it might bring whole economy down

[franky1]

i still laugh
funny how you use "the guardian"


funny how you ignore things like how covid meant that new relationships are not forming to have their first kid
funny how you ignore all context

funny how instead of now quoting births per female. you are instead using births per population

funny how you dont realise how the demograph that are in the "settled, married ready to have kids" age range.. are the 27yo+
meaning born in mid/late 90's and brought up  as millennials indoctrinated that when they become adults they will only have 1 kid

women become infertile or not really family planning after 40
meaning born early 1980's
their parents would have had many kids but their kids(80's kids) indoctrinated to grow up with one kid

you need to look at the full context
did you know that in the 1980s (83-88) there was a mini boom of births per 1000 that went from 21-24
meaning 14% more females born in 1988 compared to 1983
this results those females growing up to ~30yo-35yo in 2018-2023 outpaced the single digit decline because there was a double digit increase in the age group of females ready to have a family

this explains the fertility rate of 2020-2023 i mentioned a few posts ago. and this (its not a projection)


im using stats from source. you are using western media conclusions based on eastern media conclusions without understanding the underlying data

..
the real estate market in 2016-2021+ took the relaxation of "one child policy" to pre-build homes thinking there would be instant baby booms.. but they didnt take things(like you) into context of WHEN a action causes a reaction to a demography

you really need to take the source numbers involving actual females of family planning age(27-40) and historical data of THEIR rates when THEY were born. to the extrapolate why there was female to child rates that went up in recent years.. to explain the current situation ..

..
as for the future.
the females that are going to have 2-3 kids are still college age or yoounger so not settling down yet

sidenote:
dont use [births per male-incels+old people+infertile women+kids]+fertile women as the numbers wont correspond to nature of the female demograph family planning, and is instead [warped] by the other demographs

[stompix]

i still laugh
funny how you use "the guardian"

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3248695/chinas-population-falls-208-million-14097-billion-2023-births-tumble-adding-demographic-concerns

South China Morning Post , owned by Alibaba Group that got axed and taken over by the CCP.
You try to laugh Franky but it's not your laugh! I know real data that proves you wrong it makes you bank your head against every brick in the great wall of china.

Oh wait, how about we go straight to the source:
https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html
Bang bang bang!

By the end of 2023, the national population was 1,409.67 million (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen, but excluding residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreigners living in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities), a decrease of 2.08 million over that at the end of 2022. In 2023, the number of births was 9.02 million with a birth rate of 6.39 per thousand; the number of deaths was 11.10 million with a mortality rate of 7.87 per thousand; the natural population growth rate was minus 1.48 per thousand.

funny how you dont realise how the demograph that are in the "settled, married ready to have kids" age range.. are the 27yo+
meaning born in mid/late 90's and brought up  as millennials indoctrinated that when they become adults they will only have 1 kid

Lol, so you don't see the slippery slope here?
If those got indoctrinated like this how are the kids nowadays not be indoctrinated since everyone around still has just 1 kid despite the laws not stopping them?

im using stats from source. you are using western media conclusions based on eastern media conclusions without understanding the underlying data

Why are you not mentioning your source? Because you know that's a projection!
How the hell is 2024 CURRENT and not a PROJECTION!

And you till haven't explained how half 5% decrease in births is making the fertility rate go up! 

[franky1]

funny how you dont realise how the demograph that are in the "settled, married ready to have kids" age range.. are the 27yo+
meaning born in mid/late 90's and brought up  as millennials indoctrinated that when they become adults they will only have 1 kid

Lol, so you don't see the slippery slope here?
If those got indoctrinated like this how are the kids nowadays not be indoctrinated since everyone around still has just 1 kid despite the laws not stopping them?

the 2 child policy came out in 2016
the 3 child policy came out in 2021

so the kids indocrinated with 2 child policy. are the ones who have the "sex education" chats at school about family planning
this "sex education" is like 8yo-14yo age range

so if someone was 14 in 2016.. guess what age they are now.. yep 24.. but.. the average age a women starts settling down to have first child is 27
so even the earliest 2 child policy educated child wont be popping out double kids on average for another 3 years

so if someone was 14 in 2021.. guess what age they are now.. yep 17.. but.. the average age a women starts settling down to have first child is 27
so even the earliest 3 child policy educated child wont be popping out triple kids on average for another 10 years

get it yet
this was my point to windfury. he thinks 14yo in 2016 were going to instantly pop out twins on their 15th birthday.. and you too seem to not get the context of understanding data, so you too question "were are all the rise in birth rates" to 2-3 kids


as for your continued use of the X birth per 1000 populous
did you know that the impractical use of that is what makes you look silly
with that 1000 number, it includes old women(infertile), men of all ages, fertile but not settled young adult female. female kids
it warps the numbers to alter the real numbers hidden within of actual births per mother

heck here is one thing even your links highlight..
the disparity of male vs females

the male population was 720.32 million, and the female population was 689.35 million
more men per populous
however even this simplification is not justified explanation. because there is further muffling of numbers to create fake narrative
such as how women outlive men. whereby there are more elderly(not fertile) woman compared to male equivalent, which morths the numbers per populus of the actual women whom are in the settling down to start family demograph


i feel you and windy just got upset that i compared US problems and you didnt like how i disparaged USA and so without thinking you just grabbed the first detail you could find that showed a negative number without understanding how it relates to the understanding, meaning, context of real world causality of the numbers you promote

heck you even doubled down about overall population decline..
um yea. guess you forgot about covid and old people dying.. totally unassociated with fertile women of the age range settling down to start a family, yet again

so here we are again
of just the women without your silly extra added data to muffle the numbers. the birth rate per year is increasing
just not at the rate real estate developers hoped for 2016+
women are still in the 1.6-1.7 children per mother stage not YET the 2.4+ rate the real estate developers were hoping for a birth/real estate boom 2016+


...
by the way i am using data from females born in the 80's,90's millenia to explain why the number did not boom to 2.4+ in 2016
by the way i am using data from females born in the millenia, 10's to explain why the number is not yet ready to boom to 2.4+ yet
by the way i am using data from females born in the 90's millenia, to explain why the number is still rising in the 1.6-1.7 rate


its you that has muffled the numbers, not expressed understanding of the numbers and then used silly numbers to just promote "china bad US not so much"
now with me explaining the CONTEXT of why there is no sudden boom of families wanting 2-3 bedrooms this decade, so real estate jumped the gun in the last few years.. the amount that china's government need to give loans/grants/compensation to stabalise the real estate market is actually small incomparison to % of GDP
unlike the US housing to % of GDP the US is spending

[Wind_FURY]

Bump.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCNR628BIS

I started the topic on 2023, that graph shows that Residential Property prices have been going down since about Q4 of 2021, and currently it is lower than its lowest point made in 2006.

  👀

What's happening in China?

[stompix]

  👀

What's happening in China?

Well, one thing, any agency that makes graphs without a zero axis should be shut down.
Here is the adjusted per 2010 index but still with no zero:



Not defending China at all, I mean common, look at my previous posts but this is nowhere near a bubble burst, this is government intervention trying to deflate it clean with no repercussions, the crash will come probably in a few years, since well, China is not acting the way we're used to, they could simply ban selling old houses and drive the market up again.

But overall, yeah, the age of mindless construction and apartments bought in advance 5 years before they even dug the first hole is over.

Ps, I know Fanky is not here anymore, but his prophecies about the increase in births got axed again:

Registered births dropped to 7.92 million in 2025 – or 5.63 for every 1,000 members of the population – down 17% from 9.54 million in 2024, and the lowest since records began in 1949.

[Wind_FURY]

  👀

What's happening in China?

Well, one thing, any agency that makes graphs without a zero axis should be shut down.
Here is the adjusted per 2010 index but still with no zero:



Not defending China at all, I mean common, look at my previous posts but this is nowhere near a bubble burst, this is government intervention trying to deflate it clean with no repercussions, the crash will come probably in a few years, since well, China is not acting the way we're used to, they could simply ban selling old houses and drive the market up again.

It might not be a housing crash, BUT that's still a five-year DOWNTURN.

But overall, yeah, the age of mindless construction and apartments bought in advance 5 years before they even dug the first hole is over.

  ✅

It's a MASSIVE over-supply causing prices to fall, then housing developers going bankrupt. Although that probably needs to happen in many countries to make homes more affordable.

Ps, I know Fanky is not here anymore, but his prophecies about the increase in births got axed again:

Registered births dropped to 7.92 million in 2025 – or 5.63 for every 1,000 members of the population – down 17% from 9.54 million in 2024, and the lowest since records began in 1949.

franky1 merely spreads disinformation. He's probably using a new account without a negative trust-rating.

 

[darewaller]

This has been proven wrong many times before, and yet the wester media like to make it a bigger deal. The reason is that, in the USA and even a bit in Europe (although not as much) banks have started to buy houses, as an investment, and that ism asking prices so high that people can't even afford it right now, and they make it sound like "look how our networth is increasing" thinking that because they own their own homes, that suddenly means they are richer, when they fail to pay for their insulin over there.

Reality is that, Chinese real estate is still being sold, and the fall on price is small, 20-30% levels, and that is nothing, it allows young kids to finally be afford to buy stuff, and the drop is even 0% in places that are high populated main areas as well. There is nothing going wrong with real estate in China, but there is something VERY wrong with USA. Although, I would prefer freedom of USA and pay a lot more for houses there, than be living in a dictatorship in China even if I was offered a free house there.

[Wind_FURY]

This has been proven wrong many times before, and yet the wester media like to make it a bigger deal. The reason is that, in the USA and even a bit in Europe (although not as much) banks have started to buy houses, as an investment, and that ism asking prices so high that people can't even afford it right now, and they make it sound like "look how our networth is increasing" thinking that because they own their own homes, that suddenly means they are richer, when they fail to pay for their insulin over there.

Ser, that's data for real residential property prices in China. That's NOT from "Western media" sources that "make it a bigger deal".

 

Reality is that, Chinese real estate is still being sold, and the fall on price is small, 20-30% levels, and that is nothing, it allows young kids to finally be afford to buy stuff, and the drop is even 0% in places that are high populated main areas as well. There is nothing going wrong with real estate in China, but there is something VERY wrong with USA. Although, I would prefer freedom of USA and pay a lot more for houses there, than be living in a dictatorship in China even if I was offered a free house there.

LAUGHABLE. Stop gaslighting. It's a five-year downturn, ser. That's NOT nothing.

[stompix]

This has been proven wrong many times before, and yet the wester media like to make it a bigger deal. The reason is that, in the USA and even a bit in Europe

Yup comrade, every single time the news is about Russia or China or god knows which other country the first reply will start with "What about ...."!

Reality is that, Chinese real estate is still being sold, and the fall on price is small, 20-30% levels, and that is nothing, it allows young kids to finally be afford to buy stuff,

So the 2008 crisis was a good, thing, houses got so cheap everyone could finally afford them...oh wait!

There is nothing going wrong with real estate in China

Yeah, I mean, everyone just can't stop counting their investments and returns in Evergrande and the rest, absolutely nothing wrong with that!

franky1 merely spreads disinformation. He's probably using a new account without a negative trust-rating.

I don't see that happening, franky never cared much about red tags or anythign else, he wasn't part of any signature campaigns, he wasn't dealing with anything on the forum, he wasn't that interested in DT wars, he was just a stubborn mule with some really stupid ideas engraved in his brain.
I think he just got to the point when everything was turning against what he was standing for, and just decided to let it go, he was anyhow posting less and less every month!