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Author Topic: [ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy  (Read 818 times)
JayJuanGee
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February 09, 2024, 01:22:52 AM
 #41

Sure there could be a general field rather than a tax specific field, the field would account for estimated expenses and it would reduce the payout amount in order to attempt to measure net pay as compared to gross pay, yet from my current thinking that kind of extra field seems to have tendencies to overly complicate the tool.  What do you think bitmover?  Do you want to add an expenses field?

One of the main reasons to use this kind of a tool is to get some kind of idea regarding how much BTC to withdraw and to even show maximum withdrawal amounts based on current BTC price conditions in relation to the 200-week moving average, and surely there could be some cases in which the actual benefits of the coins is reduced due to various transaction fees, taxes or other costs that could be applied right at the time of withdrawal, yet something like taxes might be a matter of how it is categorized within reporting categories that might be somewhat ambiguous and difficult to capture even if we were to put a general expenses field in there, and even if such an "expenses" field might be helpful, I am still leaning towards thinking that such a field adds more clutter, complication and distraction to the idea than it benefits - even though it is not totally irrational to want to include the consideration of those kinds of personalization ideas.
It doesn't need to be a very specific field, something generic could be interesting. The possibility of indicating a fixed value or a percentage.

it still would end up in the user input data so then would end up affecting the results of the output, and I would imagine the default would be zero, so the user would need to select either a percentage and/or a fixed amount.

Which kind of reminds me of what I consider to be a more important feature that is currently not present which is the user's ability to share his inputs, so that if he provides a link to someone they could optionally see his inputs...

Each of these DCA cites allow for the copying and sharing of results based on inputs.

https://dcabtc.com/

https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

https://costavg.com/

It is true that there are several possibilities, in turn the person making the withdrawal may have expenses, expenses that will be deducted from the withdrawal amount. So, having a way for the match to get an idea of this value can help in making a decision.

Fair enough.

In fact, you can even change the data, and make the indicated withdrawal times no longer exist.

I am not sure exactly what you mean, here.  If we are in the middle of a month and working through our monthly limit, of course, the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA is changing throughout the month, so a lot of times if we are just considering that we do not go over the authorized BTC withdrawal amount for that particular month, then that amount should stay consistent as long at the BTC price is at least 25% or higher than the 200-WMA so we can keep track of our various withdrawals until we reach our monthly limit or we could just do them all on one day for the whole month.

On the other hand, if we are going to perform some kind of an withdrawal of advance months, then the number of months that we are authorized to withdraw in advance might have a short period of time that it is possible to accomplish based on if the BTC price moves into a certain range that authorizes additional months to withdraw in advance.  There could be discretion regarding how to accomplish the withdrawals and at which price point, and the user would have to keep track of how he is carrying out such record keeping and keeping himself within the parameters of the guidelines of the rules of the tool (if he were to choose to try to follow the rules of the tool..including that if I were to authorize you joker_josue to withdraw from an account that we establish within the confines of the tool, then if you want to stay compliant, you would be restricted to the amounts within the parameters of the rule...and we could plug in our 20.5 example for that... .

Bitmover and I have already been discussing some of the difficulties with the tools ability to capture the exact spot price upon hitting refresh or at any specific time of the day, and as a tentative resolution we had agreed to showing BTC's price range for any selected day (and bitmover is still working on adding that) and I am not sure if having that feature will completely resolve the issue of trying to figure out at what price on the upside a person might be triggered to withdraw additional months or perhaps on the downside at what price the withdrawal amount might enter more restrictive territories.... and perhaps some of the calculations might need to be carried out manually for someone who had gotten used to using the tool and understanding how it works in line with familiarity with the formulas that are contained to trigger changes in the monthly withdrawal limit thresholds.

Or change accounts for consistent withdrawals over time.

Consistent withdrawal over time would be a different tool.  Admittedly as long as the BTC price is more than 25% over the 200-WMA, the monthly withdrawal amount in terms of BTC will be the same in terms of BTC amount, but surely not in terms of dollar value.  Also the further the price is above the 200-WMA, the more months in advance become authorized for withdrawal, and I think that it would be prudent to take advantage of those guidelines, especially once the BTC price starts to get into % territories (such as higher than 400% above the 200WMA) that are authorizing 23 months in advance and more...and yeah there could be some accounting difficulty in regards to doing that, but it is still recommended to follow...especially if there are preferences to cash out BTC during the higher prices rather than during lower prices... and even though the tool is giving guidelines and I am recommending to take advantage of those guidelines, each person has discretion if he does not want to follow the guidelines, unless you happen to be someone who is mandated to follow the guidelines, if we go back to the example that I give you a budget and require you to spend within the guidelines.

Anyway, it could be another variable for the accounts, which I remembered could be useful.

I am not sure what you mean here.

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February 09, 2024, 01:49:27 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #42

Sure there could be a general field rather than a tax specific field, the field would account for estimated expenses and it would reduce the payout amount in order to attempt to measure net pay as compared to gross pay, yet from my current thinking that kind of extra field seems to have tendencies to overly complicate the tool.  What do you think bitmover?  Do you want to add an expenses field?

I think that it will make the tool more complicated and won't add any valuable information.

Each country has different taxes, expenses depend on each exchange,  bank etc. It is very personal. It could be another slider,  but I don't think it will add valuable information

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February 09, 2024, 06:19:06 AM
Merited by bitmover (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #43

Ok, just to clarify why I asked if you could possibly add those other strategies.

People always discuss possible outcomes with different scenarios or different strategies.

I discussed your strategy on one of the local "investment" WhatsApp groups and people were curious to say the least.

They wanted to see what the outcome would be, if they re-invested the yield from your strategy. (They do understand that your strategy are not an investment strategy, but they still wanted to compare the "what if" outcome)

Example 1 : What would happen, if I re-invested that yield, compared to withdrawing it and just using it for something else.

Example 2 : What would have happened, if I simply deposited it into a fixed deposit at a Bank. (Fixed interest rate, with an option to make additional deposits)

It's just fun to play around with the different strategies and I can see that you took that to the next level.  Grin Wink

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February 09, 2024, 07:57:01 AM
 #44

Thanks for the feedback JJG. Sorry for my English. And just to clarify...


In fact, you can even change the data, and make the indicated withdrawal times no longer exist.

I am not sure exactly what you mean, here.  If we are in the middle of a month and working through our monthly limit, of course, the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA is changing throughout the month, so a lot of times if we are just considering that we do not go over the authorized BTC withdrawal amount for that particular month, then that amount should stay consistent as long at the BTC price is at least 25% or higher than the 200-WMA so we can keep track of our various withdrawals until we reach our monthly limit or we could just do them all on one day for the whole month.

What I wanted to say is that the value placed in this field could influence the entire field. Based on your explanation, I realized that maybe not so much, due to the way the tool is built.



Anyway, it could be another variable for the accounts, which I remembered could be useful.

I am not sure what you mean here.

It was just a conclusion, saying that it was an idea I had and found it interesting. Wink

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February 09, 2024, 10:02:00 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #45

Example 1 : What would happen, if I re-invested that yield, compared to withdrawing it and just using it for something else.

I didnt get it.

If you reinvest what you just withdrawal at the same time,  it is the same as never withdrawal.

You would have a flat line with your btc stash, instead of a decreasing btc stash. If you had 0.5btc, and never sell, you will have 0.5btc forever



JJG has another strategy to sell and buy again using 200WMA,  which will be a next tool.

Quote
Example 2 : What would have happened, if I simply deposited it into a fixed deposit at a Bank. (Fixed interest rate, with an option to make additional deposits)

Now you will have an some exponential growth due to compound interest. There are many tools for compound interest in the web. But time is the most important variable here. You need long time.


https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/compound-interest

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February 10, 2024, 03:16:59 AM
Last edit: February 13, 2024, 12:05:47 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by bitmover (1)
 #46

I am not sure exactly what you mean, here.  If we are in the middle of a month and working through our monthly limit, of course, the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA is changing throughout the month, so a lot of times if we are just considering that we do not go over the authorized BTC withdrawal amount for that particular month, then that amount should stay consistent as long at the BTC price is at least 25% or higher than the 200-WMA so we can keep track of our various withdrawals until we reach our monthly limit or we could just do them all on one day for the whole month.
What I wanted to say is that the value placed in this field could influence the entire field. Based on your explanation, I realized that maybe not so much, due to the way the tool is built.

I think that sometimes it can take a real long time for some of the most basic of ideas to become widespread, understood and put into practice.

I think that the tool can still be considered as a BIG deal to the extent that it can help any of us to better appreciate how BTC may well have a sustainable withdrawal rate that is much higher than other assets, and I think that it remains pretty bold for me to be arguing that bitcoin may well have a sustainable withdrawal rate of 6% to 10% as long as you follow the rules of the tool.

There are a lot of people who want to start to apply the tool , but they are either not yet at a stage in their BTC accumulation that this kind of  sustainable withdrawal makes sense or they are not to point in which they can set aside a certain quantity of BTC (such as my 21 BTC example) and just start applying the sustainable withdrawal to a budget, which also is likely to be very powerful to use this tool for such a purpose.\

JJG has another strategy to sell and buy again using 200WMA,  which will be a next tool.

Even though I have been spending quite bit of time thinking about the 200-week moving average in the last 5 years or so, the foundation for our next tool (that we are still having troubles imagining how to design it in a way that is better than the google/excel spreadsheet), that one is based more on just raking profits on the way up and then speculating about buying back upon certain dips and assigning probabilities to the likelihood of such dips would be hit.  

Quote
Example 2 : What would have happened, if I simply deposited it into a fixed deposit at a Bank. (Fixed interest rate, with an option to make additional deposits)
Now you will have an some exponential growth due to compound interest. There are many tools for compound interest in the web. But time is the most important variable here. You need long time.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/compound-interest

Even though you can get the idea of compounding from various dollar-based interest/dividend bearing accounts, I consider it to be misleading to rely upon interest and/or dividends in order to understand the concept of compounding (even though there is nothing wrong with the chart in terms of nominal terms), but if we are thinking about the matter in real terms rather than nominal terms, we still have to consider bitcoin's value appreciation in relation to the dollar.  

So bitcoin does not have any dividend or interest, yet there is no need to put bitcoin into an account held by a third-party in order to get interest and/or dividends because historically bitcoin's dollar value has gone up greater than an overwhelming number of dollar-based investments, so the amount of bitcoin's value going up compounds upon itself without having to get interest upon it.  

Sure, there is no guarantee that bitcoin will continue to go up in value in ways that outpace the devaluation (and debasement of the dollar), but the odds seem quite high that bitcoin will continue to appreciate in value way greater than the dollar debases (even if you include interests (or even compounding interest) that you might earn on holding your value in such depreciating asset/currency like the dollar).

For example, even just looking at where bitcoin was in 2015, we can see that there have been about 9 doubling of bitcoin's value events (in terms of it's dollar value) and yeah some retracements but still we are currently still around 8 doublings since 2015 (that is ONLY a little more than 8 years).

1) $250  (2015)

2)  $500  (2015-2016)

3)  $1,000    (2016-2017)

4)  $2,000  (2017)

5)  $4,000  (2017-2020)

6)  $8,000   (2017-2020)

7)  $16,000  (2017-2022)

8 )  $32,000  (2021-2023?)

9)  $64,000  (2021-?)

10)  $128,000  (?)

Historically, those value appreciations in bitcoin have been way greater than the debasement of the dollar even if someone were to have had paid you 10% interest on the dollars that they were holding for you, it still would have had been better for you to keep your value in bitcoin even if no dividends or interest had been paid by keeping your value in bitcoin and stored by yourself in isolation.

Even if there are no guarantees of future results bitcoin is sound money and thus Bitcoin is designed to pump forever.. and maybe another way of saying it, is that bitcoin is the most pristine of assets and/or the soundest of monies.. so good luck holding your value somewhere else and expecting your money to appreciate and/or hold its value as well as if you were to keep your value in bitcoin, even if you are not getting any dividends and/or interest in nominal senses, you are getting appreciation of the asset in real terms  - again not guaranteed but pretty damned highly likely to have better value retention in bitcoin, especially if you account for the ongoing, persistent and consistent irresponsible behavior of the dollar and all other fiat-based systems.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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February 10, 2024, 11:15:50 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #47


Historically, those value appreciations in bitcoin have been way greater than the debasement of the dollar even if someone were to have had paid you 10% interest on the dollars that they were holding for you, it still would have had been better for you to keep your value in bitcoin even if no dividends or interest had been paid by keeping your value in bitcoin and stored by yourself in isolation.


I think bonds are not very good in developed countries.

Brazil has one of the highest interest rates in the world. Always has.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/

Brazil has about 11% is this website  but we can get easily 14% free of taxes with AAA corp bonds.
Long term  this is amazing and you 2x every 6 years.

This is very powerful and any portfolio 100% bonds will look like the chart above from my last post.

However,  we were a shitful country, I sent think nobody from a developed country should risk their dollars here.
I have treasuries and Corp bonds from the US as well, but much less..

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JayJuanGee
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February 10, 2024, 03:37:55 PM
 #48

Historically, those value appreciations in bitcoin have been way greater than the debasement of the dollar even if someone were to have had paid you 10% interest on the dollars that they were holding for you, it still would have had been better for you to keep your value in bitcoin even if no dividends or interest had been paid by keeping your value in bitcoin and stored by yourself in isolation.
I think bonds are not very good in developed countries.

Brazil has one of the highest interest rates in the world. Always has.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/

Brazil has about 11% is this website  but we can get easily 14% free of taxes with AAA corp bonds.
Long term  this is amazing and you 2x every 6 years.

This is very powerful and any portfolio 100% bonds will look like the chart above from my last post.

However,  we were a shitful country, I sent think nobody from a developed country should risk their dollars here.
I have treasuries and Corp bonds from the US as well, but much less..

Of course, you still have to consider how much you are allocating to those kinds of shitty products, even if they might perform better than bonds in the developed world, you are still likely earning your interest in a pretty shitty currency that is subject to a lot of risk in terms of its real value as opposed to its nominal value... so yeah, how much to fuck around in any investments other than bitcoin could be a long and indepth discussion that probably takes us away from how we might be thinking about the value of our own bitcoin holdings and how to deal with that.. including that this tool focuses on bitcoin, but at the same time, since it is taking advantage of changes (volatility) of the dollar and likely ongoing debasement of the dollar, we can attempt to create sustainable withdrawal practices around that.. .

In which I cannot remember if we might want to add other currencies to this tool.. do you think that there might be some value in that?  I am sure some folks might appreciate looking at their own currency rather than USD (even though surely USD remains the dominant shitty fiat out of all of the various shitty fiats).

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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February 10, 2024, 08:37:15 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #49


Of course, you still have to consider how much you are allocating to those kinds of shitty products, even if they might perform better than bonds in the developed world, you are still likely earning your interest in a pretty shitty currency that is subject to a lot of risk in terms of its real value as opposed to its nominal value... so yeah, how much to fuck around in any investments other than bitcoin could be a long and indepth discussion that probably takes us away from how we might be thinking about the value of our own bitcoin holdings and how to deal with that.. including that this tool focuses on bitcoin, but at the same time, since it is taking advantage of changes (volatility) of the dollar and likely ongoing debasement of the dollar, we can attempt to create sustainable withdrawal practices around that.. .

I think it is worth to invest in such currencies only if you live there.

All my expenses are in BRL , so it is OK for me if the price USDBRL go up or down

Quote
In which I cannot remember if we might want to add other currencies to this tool.. do you think that there might be some value in that?  I am sure some folks might appreciate looking at their own currency rather than USD (even though surely USD remains the dominant shitty fiat out of all of the various shitty fiats).

I could add fixed value of other currencies in today's rate
 The chart of historical btc price in a hundred currencies is a bit complicated (doable,  but high development time, even to find and fix the data, since 2010)

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February 12, 2024, 03:31:27 AM
Merited by Paashaas (1), bitmover (1)
 #50

In which I cannot remember if we might want to add other currencies to this tool.. do you think that there might be some value in that?  I am sure some folks might appreciate looking at their own currency rather than USD (even though surely USD remains the dominant shitty fiat out of all of the various shitty fiats).
I could add fixed value of other currencies in today's rate
 The chart of historical btc price in a hundred currencies is a bit complicated (doable,  but high development time, even to find and fix the data, since 2010)

Even if it takes a decent amount of time, if it is helpful, then might it still not be a good thing to add.. and maybe some tools might only go back to certain dates, they might not all go back to 2010?  We could potentially consider the easy currencies first and maybe if we add less common currencies, then maybe those currencies would ONLY go back as far as the date that the API allows.. but yeah, it still might get down to concerns about how much time needs to be spent and whether it is worth it?  Maybe we could talk more specifically in PMs regarding how much time is "high development time?"

Just now I had to go back and look at your currency converter,

https://bitcoindata.science/bitcoin-units-converter

and I did notice that that particular converter is ONLY dealing with current price conversions and so yeah that particular converter is not providing an option for historical conversions - yet I would imagine that there would be some sites that might do some limited kinds of historical conversions?

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February 12, 2024, 12:11:55 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitmover (1)
 #51

In which I cannot remember if we might want to add other currencies to this tool.. do you think that there might be some value in that?  I am sure some folks might appreciate looking at their own currency rather than USD (even though surely USD remains the dominant shitty fiat out of all of the various shitty fiats).

We will definitely appreciate this when we are being able to view our local currencies to their amount worth in USD.

From my own localized currency in fiat also, we prefer the use of USD just because its a measure of identifying the value of a currency growth over time while its dominance has nothing to do with any financial improvement upon any investment made in it, so i would rather prefer the use of bitcoin over any other form of currencies while USD is just an estimate to the value of my holdings.
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February 12, 2024, 02:03:54 PM
 #52

In which I cannot remember if we might want to add other currencies to this tool.. do you think that there might be some value in that?  I am sure some folks might appreciate looking at their own currency rather than USD (even though surely USD remains the dominant shitty fiat out of all of the various shitty fiats).
We will definitely appreciate this when we are being able to view our local currencies to their amount worth in USD.

From my own localized currency in fiat also, we prefer the use of USD just because its a measure of identifying the value of a currency growth over time while its dominance has nothing to do with any financial improvement upon any investment made in it, so i would rather prefer the use of bitcoin over any other form of currencies while USD is just an estimate to the value of my holdings.

Of course, bitmover and I are referring to having a unit converter within this particular tool so that all of the fiat (currently dollar value) references would be for the selected local currency, because if you merely want a contemporary conversion of your currency, you could just look at bitmover's currency converter - and maybe in that regard, as an interim solution, maybe we just want to start by adding such unit conversion link in the thread (even though there is already a unit converter link at the top of the thread).

As to your other point regarding how much value to hold in your local currency, versus the dollar versus bitcoin, I think that it is becoming more and more widely known that there are so many folks who do hold/reference dollars rather than their local currency, even if they might not hold dollars, but then they also have a lot of preferences of holding dollars because historically it has had a tendency to appreciate (or at least hold its value better) against the local currencies.. and not as many folks realize that bitcoin is even better than the dollar because bitcoin's short-term volatility frequently clouds thinking, including that it does not even take that much of a zoom out before anyone should be able to see the magnitude of such bitcoin value holding... so yeah, then it comes down to how much of your local cash and/or dollars do you need to hold and then the rest should probably go into bitcoin.. for holding 4-10 years or longer.... which can seem like an eternity for so many folks to think in terms of holding some kind of asset/currency for 4-10 years or longer in order to have decent chances of increasing the quantity and quality of options that they have in their life a wee bit down the road. 

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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February 13, 2024, 01:34:30 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)
 #53


Of course, bitmover and I are referring to having a unit converter within this particular tool so that all of the fiat (currently dollar value) references would be for the selected local currency, because if you merely want a contemporary conversion of your currency, you could just look at bitmover's currency converter - and maybe in that regard, as an interim solution, maybe we just want to start by adding such unit conversion link in the thread (even though there is already a unit converter link at the top of the thread).

As to your other point regarding how much value to hold in your local currency, versus the dollar versus bitcoin, I think that it is becoming more and more widely known that there are so many folks who do hold/reference dollars rather than their local currency, even if they might not hold dollars, but then they also have a lot of preferences of holding dollars because historically it has had a tendency to appreciate (or at least hold its value better) against the local currencies.. and not as many folks realize that bitcoin is even better than the dollar because bitcoin's short-term volatility frequently clouds thinking, including that it does not even take that much of a zoom out before anyone should be able to see the magnitude of such bitcoin value holding... so yeah, then it comes down to how much of your local cash and/or dollars do you need to hold and then the rest should probably go into bitcoin.. for holding 4-10 years or longer.... which can seem like an eternity for so many folks to think in terms of holding some kind of asset/currency for 4-10 years or longer in order to have decent chances of increasing the quantity and quality of options that they have in their life a wee bit down the road. 

I discovered an api with data from 2013 basically all currencies.

https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=brl&days=max&interval=daily&precision=2

I will take a look. I will probably add support for other local currencies using this api.

Data fromm 2010 to 2013 may be supported only for usd. I will see if I can get euro too.

About dolar reference... I track my overall portfolio in usd value. Specially for long term analysis.

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February 14, 2024, 02:06:44 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Mate2237 (1)
 #54

In which I cannot remember if we might want to add other currencies to this tool.. do you think that there might be some value in that?  I am sure some folks might appreciate looking at their own currency rather than USD (even though surely USD remains the dominant shitty fiat out of all of the various shitty fiats).
We will definitely appreciate this when we are being able to view our local currencies to their amount worth in USD.

From my own localized currency in fiat also, we prefer the use of USD just because its a measure of identifying the value of a currency growth over time while its dominance has nothing to do with any financial improvement upon any investment made in it, so i would rather prefer the use of bitcoin over any other form of currencies while USD is just an estimate to the value of my holdings.

Of course, bitmover and I are referring to having a unit converter within this particular tool so that all of the fiat (currently dollar value) references would be for the selected local currency, because if you merely want a contemporary conversion of your currency, you could just look at bitmover's currency converter - and maybe in that regard, as an interim solution, maybe we just want to start by adding such unit conversion link in the thread (even though there is already a unit converter link at the top of the thread).

I've gone through the link provided and I see it's something worth recommending for use, I will try in my own capacity as well to make this available for as many as possible from my locale to use this conversion and a big thanks and a welcome job to bitmober for bringing such idea, the site is well ok for easy use.

As to your other point regarding how much value to hold in your local currency, versus the dollar versus bitcoin, I think that it is becoming more and more widely known that there are so many folks who do hold/reference dollars rather than their local currency, even if they might not hold dollars, but then they also have a lot of preferences of holding dollars because historically it has had a tendency to appreciate (or at least hold its value better) against the local currencies.. and not as many folks realize that bitcoin is even better than the dollar because bitcoin's short-term volatility frequently clouds thinking, including that it does not even take that much of a zoom out before anyone should be able to see the magnitude of such bitcoin value holding... so yeah, then it comes down to how much of your local cash and/or dollars do you need to hold and then the rest should probably go into bitcoin.. for holding 4-10 years or longer.... which can seem like an eternity for so many folks to think in terms of holding some kind of asset/currency for 4-10 years or longer in order to have decent chances of increasing the quantity and quality of options that they have in their life a wee bit down the road. 

Recently, it has been trending on the internet whereby you see many people and experts giving some sort of financial advice on the way people save their earnings, they largely got recommendations for the use of dollar against the local currency considering the fall in the local currency value in respect to dollar, but it's more important that they will also have to realized this that they could get more better with bitcoin even than what the fiat could get them, I appreciate this efforts altogether in giving people more enlightenment towards using a sustainable means of withdrawal and currency conversion with bitcoin.
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Today at 05:07:55 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (3)
 #55

Hey!

I made the update I said.




Share button is still not working. But the other ones are. I will fix this share stuff soon!

Please tell me what you think JayJuanGee, if you have any suggestions.

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.....Your private Bitcoin wallet for desktop.....█▀▀▀▀▀▀











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Today at 09:21:58 PM
 #56

Hey!
I made the update I said.

Share button is still not working. But the other ones are. I will fix this share stuff soon!

Please tell me what you think JayJuanGee, if you have any suggestions.

I like it.  It is interesting, and it helps to inform some potential suggestions.  The format also looks nice.

In order to test it out, I entered in the fuck you status number of coins for June 2019, and even if we were to employ the most aggressive withdrawal rate (of 30%), our dollar value of our coins continued to grow throughout the period, which goes to show that historically using any withdrawal rate within the tool would have resulted in both conservatism in regards to withdrawal and also an ongoing growth of the dollar value of the BTC, even if the BTC stash may have had ended up shrinking stupendously.

The fact that even the most maximum of withdrawal rates had not historically ended up with depletion of the BTC stash, it may well be better if the withdrawal percentage would increase to higher rates, maybe even all the way up to 100%, and for those higher rates we might want to call them intentional depletion rates, even though it could be possible that they still do not end up depleting the BTC stash in terms of ongoing increase in value.. depending on future BTC price movements and also depending on how much the 200-WMA continues to go up.  On the other hand, I do expect that BTC is going to experience a lot lower future BTC price (and 200-WMA) appreciation values (you can see that I have already accounted for much lower values in my Entry-level fuck you status chart - even though currently, it is looking too conservative), because there are most likely ceilings in BTC's addressable market.

Since past results do not translate into future results, I remain comfortable to keep with the seemingly conservative recommendations of the tool in regards to how the withdrawal rates are labeled... even though it seems that any withdrawal rate under 10% may well likely end up being considered ways to continue to grow your BTC investment holdings (in terms of dollar value of your holdings) in spite of engaging in ongoing withdrawal within the bounds of the tool.    

Maybe another punchline could be that historically in bitcoin, as long as we are using the 200-WMA as our BTC valuation, there may be no need to reach full fuck you status in order to pull the fuck you lever, and we might well be able to start to use BTC portfolio stash amounts far less than expected in order to get started with our living a fuck you status lifestyle.. but we still need to reach a certain number of BTC in order to make it practical to get started with such withdrawals, since it is likely that dollar debasement is going to continue and we are going to want to continue to ensure that we have a sufficient cushion - which is supposed to be part of the justification of the tool in terms of not depleting the principle of our BTC stash and being able to live off of BTC's ongoing price appreciation, without over doing it..  

Once we get to a status of being able to withdraw from our BTC stash, it should not matter in the negative that we end up having some extra cushion in the dollar value of our BTC holdings.  Of course, I am only referring to strict withdrawal rather than the extra steps that would be required for any guys who might be engaging in advance withdrawals that presume selling the BTC and potentially buying back months if the BTC spot price drops at least a couple of levels below the range in which they had ended up employing the advance withdrawals.

Suggestions:

For some reason I am a little discombobulated by the lack of separation in regards to the entrance of the current stash size versus the historically projected stack size.  So for example, when I enter 540 BTC which would have had been the fuck you status level for June 1, 2019, and if I indicate an annual withdrawal rate of 30%, the tool shows that currently, I still would have 174 BTC (which is more than 3x current fuck you status - see my entry-level fuck you status chart), and in such a scenario I would have had withdrawn $11.5 million over the past nearly 5 years.  Of course, right now if I only have 174 BTC remaining, then that would be my current amount in which I would consider how much do I want to (or that I am authorizing myself to) withdraw and I choose if I want to stick with the same rate of withdrawal or to employ a different rate.. of course in this case, I cannot go any higher since the tool maxes out at 30%.

It's almost like I would prefer to have the current period for projecting forward and the simulated past period to have their own input and output areas, even though that would lead to a certain level of redundancy - and maybe it would have to be on a separate page if the two concepts (or two calculators might potentially interfere with each other?).  It seems to me that the simulator portion of the tool is not engaging in withdrawals of months in advance or buying back months, so the simulation does not need to have the advance withdrawal portion of the tool when it is calculating how the numbers would have had played out historically.  

In other words, for the current portion, I know what is my current BTC stash size (which I might actually have that number of BTC or I might be imagining an amount of BTC that I want to put into the tool or I might want to use of fraction of the amount of BTC that I already have and put that amount of BTC into the tool).

For historical portion (and/or the simulation), if I was using the tool and engaging in historical withdrawal, if I want to end up with the same amount of BTC that I have now, then by definition, I would have had to have started with more BTC than now in order to still have the number of BTC that I have right now.  

It is not practical for me to apply my present stash to past withdrawals, even though sure I might want to see what the historical numbers look like for my present stash size, yet at the same time, if I hypothesize using my present BTC stash size for past withdrawals I know that with the use of this tool, I currently would not have as many BTC as I have right now, which seems to justify having redundant input areas and redundant output areas for the current projection forward and for the projection of past performance (or the simulation) based on how many BTC I might have had in the past or how many BTC I speculate myself to have had in the past.  

I am interested to hear what other guys have to say.  Does anyone understand it? or find it useful for anything in the ball park for what we might be trying to achieve here?  I know that there were a few guys who mentioned their desires to see how the tool would perform historically, so here is the chance for some of those guys to chime in.  Do "we" (royal that is) need to name any names or to ask directly to certain members in regards to the guys who said that they wanted some kind of historical rendition of the tool?

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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