2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[mikeywith]

early but price of coin went up to 66.7k and that seems to be moving us back near the ATH for hash

So the highest difficulty we had was 88.10T, using the previous halving data, I calculated that we would drop a minimum of 15%, which puts us at 74.88T, the lowest we did so far is 79.49T, I still think we have a room to the downside, regardless, obviously, if we make a new ATH either in price or difficulty, then the 75T theory is out the window, however, I don't see either of these things happening this year.


The current data is as follows:

Latest Block:   853126  (10 minutes ago)
    Latest Block:   853288  (17 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   110.0776%  (521 / 473.30 expected, 47.7 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   79495195323031.48                           
Current Difficulty:   82047728459932.75               

           


I doubt we can sustain the 7% 10%, but let's wait and see.            

[joker_josue]

early but price of coin went up to 66.7k and that seems to be moving us back near the ATH for hash

So the highest difficulty we had was 88.10T, using the previous halving data, I calculated that we would drop a minimum of 15%, which puts us at 74.88T, the lowest we did so far is 79.49T, I still think we have a room to the downside, regardless, obviously, if we make a new ATH either in price or difficulty, then the 75T theory is out the window, however, I don't see either of these things happening this year.

By chance I was going to ask what the ATH of the hash was.

Really, in the current scenario, I think it will be difficult to return to these values. Unless the super large mining companies continue to significantly increase their farms. Honestly, I don't think so, as there is no indication that the price of BTC will start to rise sharply.

[mikeywith]

By chance I was going to ask what the ATH of the hash was.

Hashrate is not recorded anywhere on the blockchain, but difficulty can be used to estimate hashrate = diff  2^32

The highest diff we had was 88T, but on some days we found a lot more blocks than average, the highest daily hashrate we ever hit was 732EH, that's a shit load of gears running.

[stompix]

The highest diff we had was 88T, but on some days we found a lot more blocks than average, the highest daily hashrate we ever hit was 732EH, that's a shit load of gears running.

One day later and the record was broken, based on GMT time is 754EH, of course, it's luck an randomization but still a solid push, we're flying right now:

Latest Block:   853679  (29 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   113.9763%  (912 / 800.17 expected, 111.83 ahead)

Normally it should go down but even so I doubt it's going to fall below 4% as we're pretty ahead, so coming again close to the previous ATH   
Obviously, the price is helping right now, but seems that miners in the US are starting to seriously get invested in the election, seeing the outcome favorable I think they are going on a spending spree again!

[philipma1957]

The highest diff we had was 88T, but on some days we found a lot more blocks than average, the highest daily hashrate we ever hit was 732EH, that's a shit load of gears running.

One day later and the record was broken, based on GMT time is 754EH, of course, it's luck an randomization but still a solid push, we're flying right now:

Latest Block:   853679  (29 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   113.9763%  (912 / 800.17 expected, 111.83 ahead)

Normally it should go down but even so I doubt it's going to fall below 4% as we're pretty ahead, so coming again close to the previous ATH   
Obviously, the price is helping right now, but seems that miners in the US are starting to seriously get invested in the election, seeing the outcome favorable I think they are going on a spending spree again!

Well no one wanted Joe he was obviously ill.  This way you either get a 59 year old person that was known to be hard on crime.

Or you get Trump+Vance who are know to favor business. 

Frankly I don't Trust trump as he signed the worst piece of legislation against btc and the rest of crypto on dec 31 2017 and crypto crashed starting in Jan 2018. also he is older then Biden was when Biden won. I could see Trump staggering around in a few years and refusing to resign and giving it to Vance.


But all the Trump Fud is just that Fud. Biden was obviously shot and not able to do his duties for 4 more years.

I actually think Kamala will be made president in November after the election ends. Whether she wins it or loses the election to Trump.

I see what happened as more stable.

Anyone know how many Mt Fox coins were given out. I know some but not sure if it was a few thousand or 20k plus

[mikeywith]

Obviously, the price is helping right now, but seems that miners in the US are starting to seriously get invested in the election, seeing the outcome favorable I think they are going on a spending spree again

But do you really think they managed to put together a staggering 70+EH in just a few days? That is not even remotely possible, at least not on planet earth.

Anyway, regardless,  even if we do end up having a large spike, it needs to stay for the next epoch so that we know it is indeed not just variance, I certainly have no doubt that this much hashrate is real.

@phill, as an outsider looking at the U.S elections, I think Trump is an overall a better "show", but I also have a strong feeling he is going to lose the elections.

[philipma1957]

Obviously, the price is helping right now, but seems that miners in the US are starting to seriously get invested in the election, seeing the outcome favorable I think they are going on a spending spree again

But do you really think they managed to put together a staggering 70+EH in just a few days? That is not even remotely possible, at least not on planet earth.

Anyway, regardless,  even if we do end up having a large spike, it needs to stay for the next epoch so that we know it is indeed not just variance, I certainly have no doubt that this much hashrate is real.

@phill, as an outsider looking at the U.S elections, I think Trump is an overall a better "show", but I also have a strong feeling he is going to lose the elections.

Well I am a middle of the road guy.

Some left stuff I like Some I don't
Some right stuff I like some I don't

I have close friends that are avid trump supporters in fact so avid they are a bit frightening in their behavior.

I smell trouble around Trump more than I do with Harris.

But as I said Biden was done too sick from age. It is good that he left the game.

Most politics is way past my pay grade. I just want to be left alone and to my own devices cause that works for me pretty much.

As to the world doing 720eh or 660eh or 690eh it is still a shit ton of hash rate

5             s21s =         1ph
50           s21s =       10ph
500         s21s =     100ph
5000       s21s =         1eh
50000     s21s =       10eh
500000   s21s =      100eh
3500000 s21s =      700eh               this is close enough to accurate

 this is 12,250,000 kwatts an hour
 or       12,250 megawatts an hour. New York City burns about 11,000 Mega-Watts an hour on a hot day in the summer

and maybe 6,000 megawatts per hour on average for the year.

so BYC mining year pulls the power of 2x NYC yearly.

[mikeywith]

Most politics is way past my pay grade. I just want to be left alone and to my own devices cause that works for me pretty much.

Same here, all that I need is more freedom, and I don't mean that b.s freedom of being able to identify as a lightbulb, I mean the freedom of doing our own shit like mining BTC without having to pay half of it for tax or whatever other stupid laws that would stop us from mining or dealing with BTC.

As to the world doing 720eh or 660eh or 690eh it is still a shit ton of hash rate

5             s21s =         1ph
50           s21s =       10ph
500         s21s =     100ph
5000       s21s =         1eh
50000     s21s =       10eh
500000   s21s =      100eh
3500000 s21s =      700eh               this is close enough to accurate

It's indeed a shit ton, which is why I don't have the slightest doubt that a 12% increase is just not feasible, we speaking roughly 70EH, that's the equivalent of 350,000 S21s, and 1050MW worth of power, nobody can deploy that shit in just a few days.

[philipma1957]

Most politics is way past my pay grade. I just want to be left alone and to my own devices cause that works for me pretty much.

Same here, all that I need is more freedom, and I don't mean that b.s freedom of being able to identify as a lightbulb, I mean the freedom of doing our own shit like mining BTC without having to pay half of it for tax or whatever other stupid laws that would stop us from mining or dealing with BTC.

As to the world doing 720eh or 660eh or 690eh it is still a shit ton of hash rate

5             s21s =         1ph
50           s21s =       10ph
500         s21s =     100ph
5000       s21s =         1eh
50000     s21s =       10eh
500000   s21s =      100eh
3500000 s21s =      700eh               this is close enough to accurate

It's indeed a shit ton, which is why I don't have the slightest doubt that a 12% increase is just not feasible, we speaking roughly 70EH, that's the equivalent of 350,000 S21s, and 1050MW worth of power, nobody can deploy that shit in just a few days.

If it was simply downclocked they can do it in well under a day.

[joker_josue]

It's indeed a shit ton, which is why I don't have the slightest doubt that a 12% increase is just not feasible, we speaking roughly 70EH, that's the equivalent of 350,000 S21s, and 1050MW worth of power, nobody can deploy that shit in just a few days.

In reality we also don't know how many S21s are being manufactured and distributed. Someone may be receiving 2 or 3 containers full of these machines. And now, just call and that's it.

[philipma1957]

It's indeed a shit ton, which is why I don't have the slightest doubt that a 12% increase is just not feasible, we speaking roughly 70EH, that's the equivalent of 350,000 S21s, and 1050MW worth of power, nobody can deploy that shit in just a few days.

In reality we also don't know how many S21s are being manufactured and distributed. Someone may be receiving 2 or 3 containers full of these machines. And now, just call and that's it.

3 containers is 1300-1600 miners they burn 5.6 megawatts and maybe 320 ph


300 containers is say 160,000 they burn 560 megawatts and maybe  32 eh

no one mine is doing that and this amount is ½ the increase,


it is more like a combo of variance and  a lot of gear clocked at 70% is now at 100%

s21 has an option to go from 100% down to 70% or viser versa simply do a few mouse clicks and you did it

[stompix]

Obviously, the price is helping right now, but seems that miners in the US are starting to seriously get invested in the election, seeing the outcome favorable I think they are going on a spending spree again

But do you really think they managed to put together a staggering 70+EH in just a few days? That is not even remotely possible, at least not on planet earth.

70 brand new? No!
35 Exahas online as we don't know what really happened when we had that -5% drop, well, possible!

Seems like we keep the pace up

Latest Block:   853879  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   112.2263%  (1112 / 990.85 expected, 121.15 ahead)

still, 160 blocks in the last 24h as I type this:
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2024-07-24%2014:03:56...2024-07-25%2014:03:56)

But all the Trump Fud is just that Fud.

I remember how millions were going to flee to Canada in 2016 and how he was supposed to strat ww3 and , and nothing happened.
But at the same time, anyone who thinks he is truly a crypto guy in for the tech and not the money is just as wrong

[philipma1957]

Obviously, the price is helping right now, but seems that miners in the US are starting to seriously get invested in the election, seeing the outcome favorable I think they are going on a spending spree again

But do you really think they managed to put together a staggering 70+EH in just a few days? That is not even remotely possible, at least not on planet earth.

70 brand new? No!
35 Exahas online as we don't know what really happened when we had that -5% drop, well, possible!

Seems like we keep the pace up

Latest Block:   853879  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   112.2263%  (1112 / 990.85 expected, 121.15 ahead)

still, 160 blocks in the last 24h as I type this:
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2024-07-24%2014:03:56...2024-07-25%2014:03:56)

But all the Trump Fud is just that Fud.

I remember how millions were going to flee to Canada in 2016 and how he was supposed to strat ww3 and , and nothing happened.
But at the same time, anyone who thinks he is truly a crypto guy in for the tech and not the money is just as wrong

yeah trump signed off a the law that made every crypto coin trade in the usa tax reportable even if no profit.

btc crashed right after the law went into effect on Jan 1 2018.


and under biden btc hit ath in 2021 twice april and nov. then hit an alltime high in 2024 in march.

So to think trump is pro crypto and biden was bad for crypto simply does not follow what happened from 2018 to 2024.

But this does not mean I think Biden good Trump bad.

I think Biden too old and Trump too old.

Neither should run this year.

[mikeywith]

70 brand new? No!
35 Exahas online as we don't know what really happened when we had that -5% drop, well, possible!

Phill's theory holds a lot of weight, so it does seem like since the halving, the hashrate available (both online and offline) could pretty much be the same, and all of that is simply people underclocking and overclocking accordingly, I don't know much about the weather in the states where these large mines are located, but it could be that some heatwaves or power shortages caused the -5%?

yeah trump signed off a the law that made every crypto coin trade in the usa tax reportable even if no profit.

btc crashed right after the law went into effect on Jan 1 2018.


and under biden btc hit ath in 2021 twice april and nov. then hit an alltime high in 2024 in march.

So to think trump is pro crypto and biden was bad for crypto simply does not follow what happened from 2018 to 2024.

But this does not mean I think Biden good Trump bad.

I think Biden too old and Trump too old.

Neither should run this year.

I think Biden would sign the same thing if he were asked to, I don't think these important decisions are taken by one person, a country's policy is almost always the same, especially the foreign policy which BTC falls under.

[philipma1957]

70 brand new? No!
35 Exahas online as we don't know what really happened when we had that -5% drop, well, possible!

Phill's theory holds a lot of weight, so it does seem like since the halving, the hashrate available (both online and offline) could pretty much be the same, and all of that is simply people underclocking and overclocking accordingly, I don't know much about the weather in the states where these large mines are located, but it could be that some heatwaves or power shortages caused the -5%?

yeah trump signed off a the law that made every crypto coin trade in the usa tax reportable even if no profit.

btc crashed right after the law went into effect on Jan 1 2018.


and under biden btc hit ath in 2021 twice april and nov. then hit an alltime high in 2024 in march.

So to think trump is pro crypto and biden was bad for crypto simply does not follow what happened from 2018 to 2024.

But this does not mean I think Biden good Trump bad.

I think Biden too old and Trump too old.

Neither should run this year.

I think Biden would sign the same thing if he were asked to, I don't think these important decisions are taken by one person, a country's policy is almost always the same, especially the foreign policy which BTC falls under.

Biden was not fried in 2017 he may have not liked that bill and vetoed it.

That Bill favored only like kind exchanges of Real estate no other assets. So it helped Trump and his businesses which are primarily real estate.

The,powers behind the scenes may have pushed it inorder to get certain supreme court judges appointed or some other bill they wanted. Most everything is a trade done behind the scenes for at least 50 years that I have follwed.

Now Biden when he was healthy would have signed it to maybe get a healthcare bill passed..

He is not a wheeler dealer rich guy that we are aware of but pleasing real estate guys to get something else done is shit they all do.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   854051  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   112.0853%  (1284 / 1145.56 expected, 138.44 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   79495195323031.48                           
Current Difficulty:   82047728459932.75                           
Next Difficulty:   between 90627056077237 and 92089356271749
Next Difficulty Change:   between +10.4565% and +12.2388%
Previous Retarget:   July 18, 2024 at 12:54 PM  (+3.2109%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 12:40 AM  (in 4d 12h 50m 44s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 5:26 AM  (in 4d 17h 37m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 11h 46m 18s and 12d 16h 32m 52s

and we are 138 blocks ahead almost a full day . or in 8 days we are 9 days ahead.

new high looks likely

[BitcoinSoloMiner]

the reporting of bitcoin for tax also had alot to do with anti-money laundering and criminal investigations into ransomware. easier to catch the criminals if more of the on-ramp/off-ramp is reported and tracked to individuals

[mikeywith]

and we are 138 blocks ahead almost a full day . or in 8 days we are 9 days ahead.

new high looks likely

Yup, the pace is surprisingly holding strong if we assume the 5% drop was caused by underclock, and now we getting a 10-11%, to assume it's indeed a 5-6% increase is just astonishing, with the current numbers and even worse with the coming numbers, I have no freaking clue how do those large miners with a ton of expenses manage to stay in operation, again, American money is just crazy.

the reporting of bitcoin for tax also had alot to do with anti-money laundering and criminal investigations into ransomware. easier to catch the criminals if more of the on-ramp/off-ramp is reported and tracked to individuals

Care to explain in detail how tax and mining difficulty correlate?

[philipma1957]

and we are 138 blocks ahead almost a full day . or in 8 days we are 9 days ahead.

new high looks likely

Yup, the pace is surprisingly holding strong if we assume the 5% drop was caused by underclock, and now we getting a 10-11%, to assume it's indeed a 5-6% increase is just astonishing, with the current numbers and even worse with the coming numbers, I have no freaking clue how do those large miners with a ton of expenses manage to stay in operation, again, American money is just crazy.

the reporting of bitcoin for tax also had alot to do with anti-money laundering and criminal investigations into ransomware. easier to catch the criminals if more of the on-ramp/off-ramp is reported and tracked to individuals

Care to explain in detail how tax and mining difficulty correlate?

He is  trying to defend the Dec 31 2017 bill that Trump signed into law in the USA.

  He is partially correct as in terms of stopping laundering of money reporting every trade of BTC or any coin on a kyc exchange will hinder sneaking around with crypto coins and making unreported trades. I get that reasoning but it hurt crypto which in turn hurt the market in 2018 which made the difficulty go into a long retreat over 6 months. in late 2018 to mid 2019.

I do not have a problem with the bill except the bill exempted real estate trades which is tRumps primary business. So he sure hurt legit stock people and legit crypto people and helped himself.

BTW If he now has a lot of crypto and stands to make bank on BTC he will pass a bill to help BTC but he does not show his tax returns like presidents and president candidates do. So I have no idea if he is invested in BTC or crypto.

If I knew he had 1 billion in crypto coins I would be inclined to favor him over Harris. as it is now I know zip nada nothing except for the bill he passed in late 2017 which hurt crypto and helped real estate.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   854255  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   111.1741%  (1488 / 1338.44 expected, 149.56 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   79495195323031.48                            
Current Difficulty:   82047728459932.75                            
Next Difficulty:   between 90620014424504 and 91322692825528
Next Difficulty Change:   between +10.4479% and +11.3044%
Previous Retarget:   July 18, 2024 at 12:54 PM  (+3.2109%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 3:07 AM  (in 3d 7h 9m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 5:26 AM  (in 3d 9h 28m 17s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 14h 13m 43s and 12d 16h 32m 42s

Mikey I have a degree in accounting

I worked in the IRS
My mom work in the IRS
My wife worked in the IRS

The tax laws in my country are hundreds of 300-500 page books that no 1 person fully understands.

We are surely approaching a diff of 90t a new record with no end in site. Maybe Trump's forcing of the tax reporting in the long run has helped the btc game who really knows. I surely don't.

[stompix]

Finally, it took a break as the block advantage has gone down a bit but it just means it's not growing as much as before, two and a half days and you would need to have all miners shut down for one entire day to get it back to zero at this point.
So it will probably be something in the 8-9% area at best, so new ATH? Lol, if this happens I've been off by a month with my prediction, just as I thought I missed it completely.

I have no freaking clue how do those large miners with a ton of expenses manage to stay in operation, again, American money is just crazy.

Now imagine there wouldn't be any backslash from using coal powerplants as Marathon used before and they could still buy and run those 2cents/kwh farms, probably Foundry would have already gone past 50%. Although saying that. I'm starting to believe some miners there spread their hashrate intentionally not to make Foundry look like a 51 attacker, still even 34% over 7 days it's a bit concerning.