Amount of BTC lost over time?

[Wiwo]

I have a theory that even though we talk about halving the issuance rate every 4 years, the BTC price is just as much influenced by the amount of coins lost day by day. I've read analysts estimating even around 6M bitcoins are likely to be lost forever. Those are horrendous numbers. But surprisingly in contrast, I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart. The closest we can get are the "supply last active N years ago" type of charts, but they lack context.

I would be highly interested on historical data on the aggregated amount of coins claimed to be lost over time. If you know a reliable source, please share!

Just like in the thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5480574.msg63449066#msg63449066
You can see that someone just sent 26 bitcoins to a known dead address that has been picked by the Bitcoin community to have been one of the biggest Bitcoin burn addresses,  so we have a few other addresses that contained bitcoins and are known to be lost forever,  and with such information,  even though we don't have any accurate statistical data and records regarding that,  we can just speculate and assume the amount in total since we have no way to prove or verify such information.

Sometimes,  we can't say because an address has been inactive for 5-6 years or more doesn't make the address a dead address since anyone with the private keys to that address to reactivate it at any time.

[suzanne5223]

I have a theory that even though we talk about halving the issuance rate every 4 years, the BTC price is just as much influenced by the amount of coins lost day by day.

No, what influences the price of BTC is the 4-year cycle aka block halving, positive news, mining difficult level, and level of greed in the market. The lost BTC only increases the total number of BTC in circulation.
The lost BTC somewhere impacts the price but not in the way you proclaim it.

I've read analysts estimating even around 6M bitcoins are likely to be lost forever. Those are horrendous numbers. But surprisingly in contrast, I've never seen anyone put the average of lost BTC estimations over time on a chart.

If there's no evidence backing the claim of lost BTC to be 6 million, I will advise you not to believe in the information because 97% of all the so-called analysts of this day create hype content just for their selfish benefit.

[bluebit25]

Okay, let's throw that data away and focus on the present. Will it have a negative impact on bitcoin? The only thing I can feel about the bitcoins that many people have lost is a pity for them, and the irony is that stories about cases of irreversible bitcoin oblivion still exist and it's painful for them to see more of the value of bitcoin increasing over time.

If you follow the logic that the OP mentioned, you know that by the year 10000, yep we will lose all bitcoins, all people, all things,... there are tons of things that people like to attach. Focus on inferences but appreciate what exists first.

2013: 3.4M BTC estimated to be lost
2014: 4.1M BTC estimated to be lost
2015: 4.3M... etc.