Will the world soon become tired of the US dollar?

[STT]

Its been a long time coming is what we can say for sure, I can bring up a video of France's leader post WW2 complaining about the amounts of excessive spending by USA in its space program vs USSR and how they would only take gold in great doubt at the long term value of Dollar.    That leader was proved right to a large extent as dollar notes have declined greatly yet Dollar is king still and backer of the global reserve system used by most nations central banks.

BRICS now controls almost 28% of a global economy

Control is a strong word in a free market economy.  The production by many countries is vital to the success of others but theres always some other nation who wants that business also.  Vietnam for example can undercut China production cost apparently, though cost is only one factor.  China has a falling working population which naturally forces up costs, India has great growth for some time in the future but the ability to harness that potential is an open question still.   Its never straightforward.

[Hispo]

The world has to get tired of the US dollar, but it also has to get tired of fiat currencies. Nothing changes for us if we replace one fiat currency with another... When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled more. Whether an elephant wins or loses does not mean anything to us. Of course, instead of one elephant being king, it is better if two elephants are of equal power and find a compromise, because then they won't fight temporarily and they won't hurt the grass. However, getting rid of the elephants should be our priority...

If we talk from the point of view of a person which values the complete decentralization of economy, then yes. Getting rid of Fiat as an applied economical concept in your nations and in the international market would be an ideal scenario, though in real life the ideal scenarios barely happen and are very difficult to find or reach.
What I am personally expecting to happen is Bitcoin and other alternative currencies to co-exist with the traditional assets and Fiats on the long term; governments are not willing to lose control over the macroeconomcal factors which influence on the value of goods and services, to accelerate or deaccelerate inflation in society, etc. I would be even willing to theorize those governments with a very high local/public spending would not be even willing to break even if they did not have the ability to print more more or acquire more debt. It would take the price of Bitcoin to reach new high levels and those republics to heavily invest in mining infrastructure in order to continue to function and fun themselves, in a world where money is Bitcoin alone. They will never be willing to go through those situation, Thurs their antagonistic position on BTC and alternative currencies.

[bbigtart]

They'll get tired of it as soon as the empire of US government falls, that's the only way that it can make the world lose interest in the US dollar, the global market is so tied with the US as it's global currency that it's difficult to say that the world will ever get tired. I don't think that people will get tired of it that easy, maybe a flash crash on the USD and we will see something different and I'm proven wrong that we will quickly get tired and replace US dollar but seeing the influence of USA to other countries, I think that it's going to be difficult to happen.

It will, believe me. Same thing happened to all the global reserve currencies before. Pounds, francs, reals, guldens they all are history as a global currency. Same fate awaits the US dollar, the question is not if but when...  

Which I believe. In the history of human civilization, no country's glory has lasted forever. The success of a country always ends in collapse, whether due to political, economic factors, natural disasters and so on. Now the signs are in America.

Indeed, currently the US is strong because of the dollar. There is currently little discourse in some countries about the impact of the dollar. The symptoms are starting to be felt, especially if all countries start joining BRICS and start abandoning the dollar. Is the US still strong enough to impose an embargo and become the world's policeman with the power of the dollar? because all countries need dollars, exports and imports use dollars. Therefore, the US arbitrarily imposes an embargo if a country does not comply.

So I believe the dominance of the dollar will end because many countries are fed up with the dollar monopoly system.

[Abiky]

Which I believe. In the history of human civilization, no country's glory has lasted forever. The success of a country always ends in collapse, whether due to political, economic factors, natural disasters and so on. Now the signs are in America.

Indeed, currently the US is strong because of the dollar. There is currently little discourse in some countries about the impact of the dollar. The symptoms are starting to be felt, especially if all countries start joining BRICS and start abandoning the dollar. Is the US still strong enough to impose an embargo and become the world's policeman with the power of the dollar? because all countries need dollars, exports and imports use dollars. Therefore, the US arbitrarily imposes an embargo if a country does not comply.

So I believe the dominance of the dollar will end because many countries are fed up with the dollar monopoly system.

Exactly. Empires rise and fall. The US is no exception. We're already seeing countries moving away from the USD. The Biden administration has accelerated the process by weaponizing the currency. Without strong support from leading countries, the USD will eventually lose its position as the reserve currency of the world. This could take a few years or decades to happen.

My guess is that either Bitcoin, the Euro, or the Chinese Yuan will take over the world as the world's next reserve currency. The question is: Are we ready for this change? No one can predict the future, so lets hope for the best.

[DrBeer]

Exactly. Empires rise and fall. The US is no exception. We're already seeing countries moving away from the USD. The Biden administration has accelerated the process by weaponizing the currency. Without strong support from leading countries, the USD will eventually lose its position as the reserve currency of the world. This could take a few years or decades to happen.

My guess is that either Bitcoin, the Euro, or the Chinese Yuan will take over the world as the world's next reserve currency. The question is: Are we ready for this change? No one can predict the future, so lets hope for the best.

One simple question - why would normal countries move away from a stable and secured dollar that is guaranteed to be accepted by the whole world for payment ?
Euro is a good currency, but it has many problems - the EU is not homogeneous, and has a lot of economies that create "ballast". The purpose of the ecu/euro was not so much to fight the dollar as to unify payments in Europe. Chinese yuan ? Don't be ridiculous - the Chinese economy is in a very difficult situation with a very bad outlook. Bitcoin ? Never a decentralized currency system will become international. It is simply not profitable for the world economy to switch to a basket of multi-currencies, especially dubious ones like the yuan. There may be settlements in national currencies between some countries/unions, for internal settlements, but the world market works on the dollar, and there is no substitute for it yet

[shield132]

Vietnam for example can undercut China production cost apparently, though cost is only one factor.  China has a falling working population which naturally forces up costs, India has great growth for some time in the future but the ability to harness that potential is an open question still.   Its never straightforward.

Vietnam can undercut China's production cost but Vietnam doesn't have as much experience in production as China has. Besides costs, we have to consider that factories are already built in China which is another investment and will Vietnamese workers be able to work as fast as Chinese workers do? Companies will have to invest money to improve the skills of Vietnamese workers. China has an advantage over other countries that will be hard to take from them.

One simple question - why would normal countries move away from a stable and secured dollar that is guaranteed to be accepted by the whole world for payment ?

Because they don't want to be under the influence of America. It's a huge mechanism of control. Tell me a single reason why dollar, a paper is better than gold standard?

[slapper]

They'll get tired of it as soon as the empire of US government falls, that's the only way that it can make the world lose interest in the US dollar, the global market is so tied with the US as it's global currency that it's difficult to say that the world will ever get tired. I don't think that people will get tired of it that easy, maybe a flash crash on the USD and we will see something different and I'm proven wrong that we will quickly get tired and replace US dollar but seeing the influence of USA to other countries, I think that it's going to be difficult to happen.

It will, believe me. Same thing happened to all the global reserve currencies before. Pounds, francs, reals, guldens they all are history as a global currency. Same fate awaits the US dollar, the question is not if but when...  

Which I believe. In the history of human civilization, no country's glory has lasted forever. The success of a country always ends in collapse, whether due to political, economic factors, natural disasters and so on. Now the signs are in America.

Indeed, currently the US is strong because of the dollar. There is currently little discourse in some countries about the impact of the dollar. The symptoms are starting to be felt, especially if all countries start joining BRICS and start abandoning the dollar. Is the US still strong enough to impose an embargo and become the world's policeman with the power of the dollar? because all countries need dollars, exports and imports use dollars. Therefore, the US arbitrarily imposes an embargo if a country does not comply.

So I believe the dominance of the dollar will end because many countries are fed up with the dollar monopoly system.

We know civilizations emerge and fall from history. However, examining the dollar's dominance reveals worldwide economic interdependence. The dollar is more than currency - it underpins the financial system. However, reliance fosters resentment, which complicates matters. Nations gathering around BRICS? That's strategic pivot, not guesswork. Not only "fed up" - they want autonomy. No doubt, the U.S. has led the world economy with the dollar. But every tool has limits, including the dollar

Your take on economic leverage and embargoes? Right on. Power dynamics change. How and when the dollar's supremacy will decline is the question. The U.S. must adjust as countries diversify away from the dollar. No giant is falling, but the global economy is changing. Adaptability and resilience are key

[Claudksg]

The world can never get tired of the dollar,the dollar has put it self in a level that it's part of the world's reserved currency.its accepted in so many countries in the world, which the us government has been a lender of the dollar to so many countries over decades.and it has been part of the world's currency for trading.so feel it going to be hard to get tired of the dollar.

[DrBeer]

Vietnam for example can undercut China production cost apparently, though cost is only one factor.  China has a falling working population which naturally forces up costs, India has great growth for some time in the future but the ability to harness that potential is an open question still.   Its never straightforward.

Vietnam can undercut China's production cost but Vietnam doesn't have as much experience in production as China has. Besides costs, we have to consider that factories are already built in China which is another investment and will Vietnamese workers be able to work as fast as Chinese workers do? Companies will have to invest money to improve the skills of Vietnamese workers. China has an advantage over other countries that will be hard to take from them.

One simple question - why would normal countries move away from a stable and secured dollar that is guaranteed to be accepted by the whole world for payment ?

Because they don't want to be under the influence of America. It's a huge mechanism of control. Tell me a single reason why dollar, a paper is better than gold standard?

Wonderful answer, thank you so much for it ! In a way I was waiting for it
One question and one clarification then:
1. Can you give arguments in favor of your assumption about "they don't want to be under the influence of America" ?
How do you think the EU's dependence on the US manifests itself, when settling on the world market in dollars and Euros ?   Let me make it clear - the Euro is a freely convertible currency, not pegged to the dollar

2. About paper and gold - I absolutely agree with you. But one question - how in the modern world to make sure that countries have declared gold reserves? China and Russia, for example, constantly declare that they buy it in huge quantities, but ... all information on gold reserves (and other key indicators) is CLOSED. In China for 15 years, in Russia for the last 2 years they have classified most of the figures.... How will you confirm the "gold standard" if it's all gold only on paper ? Very interesting to hear the conceptual model of auditing gold reserves, at least in the above countries !

[goldkingcoiner]

Just like that, BRICS now controls almost 28% of a global economy that's worth  over $28.5 Trillion.
The economy keeps getting worse and the hike both as concerns interest rates and crypto transaction fees has increased and keeps doing so yearly.

Recently, we see countries like Saudi Arabia,  the UAE that has been making waves with several investments that may include multimillion dollar soccer stars signings, building the tallest building in the world, development of tourism and attractions that bewildered the mind. Also, Iran,  Egypt and Ethiopia has officially joined BRICS and although Argentina rejected the invitation, one question is this,

Are we seeing a time where BRICS currency and cryptocurrencies are the answer to a world tired of the us dollar?

https://watcher.guru/news/brics-welcome-2024-by-officially-adding-5-expansion-nations

The world has already become tired of the US dollar.

It is a tool that the US uses to siphon money from other countries economies. And that is really one of the only things keeping the US afloat. They produce nothing, export nothing and use military might to enforce, unjustly, the hegemony they have over the worlds economy. Remember what happens when some country tries to break free of the dollar and replace it with a gold-back currency? The US military invades and makes sure that that does not happen.

The answer is not a BRICs currency nor cryptocurrencies (as in altcoins) but rather Bitcoin itself is the only thing that can save the world.

Bitcoin needs to be the only world currency. No one country can have control over or abuse it.

[DrBeer]

Vietnam for example can undercut China production cost apparently, though cost is only one factor.  China has a falling working population which naturally forces up costs, India has great growth for some time in the future but the ability to harness that potential is an open question still.   Its never straightforward.

Vietnam can undercut China's production cost but Vietnam doesn't have as much experience in production as China has. Besides costs, we have to consider that factories are already built in China which is another investment and will Vietnamese workers be able to work as fast as Chinese workers do? Companies will have to invest money to improve the skills of Vietnamese workers. China has an advantage over other countries that will be hard to take from them.

One simple question - why would normal countries move away from a stable and secured dollar that is guaranteed to be accepted by the whole world for payment ?

Because they don't want to be under the influence of America. It's a huge mechanism of control. Tell me a single reason why dollar, a paper is better than gold standard?

1. Plants, from the point of view of investments have already paid for themselves long ago, so their "loss" will not bring losses, and to be more precise - it will not require maintenance and amortization costs of these facilities, so the cost of building new enterprises in Vietnam will be commensurate with the cost of maintenance of obsolete ones in China.
2. Vietnamese workers are no different from Chinese workers - if they want to work, they work. The only nuance is that in the past Vietnam invested more in the development of the light industry sector, but in recent decades - began to invest in the production of technological goods.
3. So far you only speak in "slogans", but you have not explained the very essence of dependence and examples. Dependence is when you can't do anything and have to use one solution. In a sense, it is "systemic drug addiction" when the body cannot live without a drug and has to do everything to get it. Question - give an example of such dependence of economies or financial systems, countries, which in your opinion want to get away from "dependence" ?

[Antotena]

Recently, we see countries like Saudi Arabia,  the UAE that has been making waves with several investments that may include multimillion dollar soccer stars signings, building the tallest building in the world, development of tourism and attractions that bewildered the mind. Also, Iran,  Egypt and Ethiopia has officially joined BRICS and although Argentina rejected the invitation, one question is this,

Are we seeing a time where BRICS currency and cryptocurrencies are the answer to a world tired of the us dollar?

The Egypt has announced to have abandoned dollar for international trade and I think this is a good move after what I have learn from my country Nigeria. There is a big disadvantages of using dollar to settle trade in many African countries and I think Egypt are tired of the manipulation that has been going on particularly how it makes the economy to dollarize, it makes your own currency to be useless because people see dollar as superior currency over the traditional currency and if this happens to be in demand, there is high risk of the country getting into hyperinflation in the future.

I don't know why I see BRICS so similar to ECOWAS( economy community of west African states), it has been on existence for long but some countries has pulled out, like the Mali, Niger  and Burkina Faso has pulled out after coup of military, they feel their leaders are not doing anything positive despite been their, a time will come when others will complain of not been favour by BRICS and will pull out one day.

[Abiky]

The world has already become tired of the US dollar.

It is a tool that the US uses to siphon money from other countries economies. And that is really one of the only things keeping the US afloat. They produce nothing, export nothing and use military might to enforce, unjustly, the hegemony they have over the worlds economy. Remember what happens when some country tries to break free of the dollar and replace it with a gold-back currency? The US military invades and makes sure that that does not happen.

The answer is not a BRICs currency nor cryptocurrencies (as in altcoins) but rather Bitcoin itself is the only thing that can save the world.

Bitcoin needs to be the only world currency. No one country can have control over or abuse it.

Bitcoin is the ideal replacement of Fiat. But so far, the world hasn't moved away from banks. As long as these corrupt financial institutions exist, don't expect BTC to go anywhere soon.

Like it or not, the USD will eventually lose its luster as the reserve currency of the world. Which Fiat currency will take its place in the future, is an excellent question. I wouldn't worry about this as long as the global economy goes back to normal. Maybe BTC will get to live alongside Fiat for generations?

[STT]

Egypt receives billions a year in funding via the dollar, I know they do price fixing and generally struggle to balance the economy with stability but I seriously doubt a regime so closely related to dollars would be the first to be stepping away in any significant way.
   I'd like to think no FIAT will take over from Dollar not to the extent we have it now.  This should be the peak of reliance on political debt monetized promissory notes, the high tide mark of scummy currency that impoverishes the hard working common people.    I'd like to think that but I dont know its indicated right now just people hoping saying it has to fall over.   Any big change at this point would be like an earthquake in  its disruption and a change absent of any smoothness I think.

[WillyAp]

You should read what the US can do with the $:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/10/would-america-dare-to-bring-down-a-chinese-bank
To get past the paywall use https://archive.is/

The article narrates the power of sanctions in the finance sector, the very sector where countries get hurt.
Then there is something called: vorauseilender Gehorsam, loosely translated to boot-liking. 

[stompix]

You should read what the US can do with the $:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/10/would-america-dare-to-bring-down-a-chinese-bank

They don't even need to do a thing, with the real estate crashing China will get itself in trouble, the US just needs time and patience.
Look at everybody here screaming how the dollar is dead, now if you ask them the price of one bitcoin in uran, ruble, rial, rupee...they would not know a thing!

They produce nothing, export nothing and use military might to enforce, unjustly, the hegemony they have over the worlds economy.

The US produces nothing....lol!
They all just print money and that's it, funny how do you explain this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

China           3,715,827   
United States   3,011,859   

Everything is produced in China, the US produces nothing but somehow by god knows what miracle China's total exports are barely 33% higher than the US, with 1.4 billion people compared to 300 million!

Your take on economic leverage and embargoes? Right on. Power dynamics change. How and when the dollar's supremacy will decline is the question. The U.S. must adjust as countries diversify away from the dollar.

Yeah lol, they diversify...



So Brics currencies are 2% and G7 are 88%!
Welcome diversification!

You should read what the US can do with the $:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/10/would-america-dare-to-bring-down-a-chinese-bank

[Abiky]

Egypt receives billions a year in funding via the dollar, I know they do price fixing and generally struggle to balance the economy with stability but I seriously doubt a regime so closely related to dollars would be the first to be stepping away in any significant way.
   I'd like to think no FIAT will take over from Dollar not to the extent we have it now.  This should be the peak of reliance on political debt monetized promissory notes, the high tide mark of scummy currency that impoverishes the hard working common people.    I'd like to think that but I dont know its indicated right now just people hoping saying it has to fall over.   Any big change at this point would be like an earthquake in  its disruption and a change absent of any smoothness I think.

Exactly. It's going to take ages before the world completely abandons the USD. Despite signs that the currency is weakening, other currencies are faring worse. Not even BRICS has been able to create an alternative currency that would compete against the US Dollar. The "de-dollarization" process doesn't happen overnight. Slowly but surely, the USD will lose traction until another currency takes its place as the world's reserve currency.

There are theories as to which will be the USD's replacement in the future. I'd be surprised if it happens to be Bitcoin, especially when people are losing faith on central banks and the government. El Salvador already declared BTC as legal tender, while Argentina's president Javier Milei proposed to shut down the central bank and use Bitcoin. Is this a sign that Fiat currencies like the USD and EUR will die soon?

[WillyAp]

There are theories as to which will be the USD's replacement in the future. I'd be surprised if it happens to be Bitcoin, especially when people are losing faith on central banks and the government. El Salvador already declared BTC as legal tender, while Argentina's president Javier Milei proposed to shut down the central bank and use Bitcoin. Is this a sign that Fiat currencies like the USD and EUR will die soon?

Election promises rarely translate into reality, has he done it so far?
San Salvador uses Bitcoin alongside with their local currency plus the $ I think.

[goldkingcoiner]

how do you explain this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

China           3,715,827   
United States   3,011,859   

Everything is produced in China, the US produces nothing but somehow by god knows what miracle China's total exports are barely 33% higher than the US, with 1.4 billion people compared to 300 million!

I don't know, I am no economist. How do you explain that the US only has 31.6% more export than Germany, but around 4 times the population size? Thats roughly (~4.23x) about as much as the ratio of China's population to US population.

When is the last time anyone outside of the US saw a 'made in USA' product? And I would rather have China quality over US quality.

[stompix]

I don't know, I am no economist. How do you explain that the US only has 31.6% more export than Germany, and around 4 times the population size of Germany?

Pretty simple, internal EU trade, the numbers change radically if you consider the EU as a whole.
I work in logistics, it's pretty normal to have components shipped from Romania or Hungary, assembled in the Czech Republic and then have the machine delivered to France, and not a surprise to have pieces shipped from Germany to Poland and then the full machine then imported back in Germany.
Since the EEU is completely different than anything in this world when it comes to trade you would have to consider the entire EU and only outside of EU trade.

The total trade of the EU is bigger than China and the US combined, but only external trade is just 2.5 billion!

When is the last time anyone outside of the US saw a 'made in USA' product? And I would rather have China quality over US quality.

Yeah right!
Reminded me when Iran buried their top general killed in a US strike after parading his coffin in a Chevy Silverado and his daughter was taking pictures with an Iphone!
All the way chatting death to America!