The BTC Scaling Law

[ImThour]

It's working until it stops working just like the 100 or 200 Moving Average which was supposedly to hold Bitcoin at $22k in 2022. What happened? It broke and Bitcoin went as low as $15k.
So everything will work until one day, when it will suddenly stop working. I am sure it was the same case with the PlanB guy or something? I don't remember his name exactly.

[franky1]

funny part is he admits in his other forums that the number(he wrongly calls constant) was 5.97 then now 5.82.. and then in the SAME WEEK he is already also talking about 5.8

imagine what he is going to say in the next halving cycle

second funny part is he is so desperate to try making his manipulations go viral that he is making many accounts and retweeting and reposting himself

oh and he is purporting to be a physicist now not a mathematician..
third funny part is in the scientific model it actually involves peer review but he cries when people do review and call him out on his broken theory

fourth funny part is he cries about working on it for a decade.. if the formulae even had merit. the constant would work for itself and prove it over time without needing any adjustments

EG E=mc² is still E=mc² a century later

[BTCdragosfera]

It's working until it stops working just like the 100 or 200 Moving Average which was supposedly to hold Bitcoin at $22k in 2022. What happened? It broke and Bitcoin went as low as $15k.
So everything will work until one day, when it will suddenly stop working. I am sure it was the same case with the PlanB guy or something? I don't remember his name exactly.

It has worked for 15 years. What I'm trying to explain is that we are dealing with a power law. I gave many links to people, please really look at the videos because there is incredibly valuable info. Power Law are stable and actually, as the system grows it becomes more stable. It is not another formula.

funny part is he admits in his other forums that the number(he wrongly calls constant) was 5.97 then now 5.82.. and then in the SAME WEEK he is already also talking about 5.8

imagine what he is going to say in the next halving cycle

second funny part is he is so desperate to try making his manipulations go viral that he is making many accounts and retweeting and reposting himself

oh and he is purporting to be a physicist now not a mathematician..
third funny part is  the scientific model it actually involves peer review but he cries when people do review and call him out on his broken theory

fourth funny part is he cries about working on it for a decade.. if the formulae even had merit. the constant would work for itself and prove it over time without needing any adjustments

EG E=mc² is still E=mc² a century later

It doesn't matter if it 5.82, 5.89, or even 6.
I told you it is converging to a particular value. Also small variations in the value do not make any difference in the predictive power of the model.

Did you see the graph I posted in the previous response?
No, so please do not continue with the same nonsense.

It is a statistical derivation anyway.
Do you know what that means? We are dealing with a stochastic system so you are not going to get perfect constants, the data is messy.

You are not in a position to peer review anything because you are not my peer. I posted here in the hope of discussing with somebody who understands these kinds of things and having a constructive discussion, instead the people who replied so far seem to have no basic knowledge of math.

I don't want to insult you but it is completely evident you have no clue of what you are talking about. Again, I said it is like a flat earther discussing with a professional Astronomer.

Physicists are applied mathematicians. We are as good at math as a mathematician but we know more about how to apply it to the real world.

Everybody should know about this profound property of BTC.



[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[franky1]

It's working until it stops working just like the 100 or 200 Moving Average which was supposedly to hold Bitcoin at $22k in 2022. What happened? It broke and Bitcoin went as low as $15k.
So everything will work until one day, when it will suddenly stop working. I am sure it was the same case with the PlanB guy or something? I don't remember his name exactly.

It has worked for 15 years. What I'm trying to explain is that we are dealing with a power law. I gave many links to people, please really look at the videos because there is incredibly valuable info. Power Law are stable and actually, as the system grows it becomes more stable. It is not another formula.

showing links to the same falsehoods is not proof. its just circling the same trashcan
your "law" has changed over the years. and even with changes becomes LESS accurate

even a toddler can see how your lines dont even match the lows and highs of the market even after you edit the chart(adjusting numbers variably) to try to make the chart fit a straight line

[BTCdragosfera]

It's working until it stops working just like the 100 or 200 Moving Average which was supposedly to hold Bitcoin at $22k in 2022. What happened? It broke and Bitcoin went as low as $15k.
So everything will work until one day, when it will suddenly stop working. I am sure it was the same case with the PlanB guy or something? I don't remember his name exactly.

It has worked for 15 years. What I'm trying to explain is that we are dealing with a power law. I gave many links to people, please really look at the videos because there is incredibly valuable info. Power Law are stable and actually, as the system grows it becomes more stable. It is not another formula.

showing links to the same falsehoods is not proof. its just circling the same trashcan
your "law" has changed over the years. and even with changes becomes LESS accurate

even a toddler can see how your lines don't even match the lows and highs of the market even after you edit the chart(adjusting numbers variably) to try to make the chart fit a straight line

The links is to a mathematical proof that the value converges. You don't understand why that is fundamental to prove the model works.
Why do you argue? It is like me walking in a baseball professional team and telling them how to play basketball.

The top line is not supposed to match the highs of the market. It is evident they don't follow a trend. The decay can also be modelled but it is not what the lines are trying to do. They are trying to do the second best thing that is to identify places where the price is too high and it is a good idea to disinvest.

These are areas that show that if the price goes above 200 % of the trend line is time to sell. I tried to explain this to you 1000 times. It is a reference point. It gives a simple recipe for DCA. The bottom line perfectly indicates the bottom instead it catches all the major bottoms and in fact, the general path during bear follows the bottom line. It is stochastic again so please do not tell me a few points went below because it is completely idiotic.

I'm trying to do my best to teach you because I'm an ex-professor so I'm trying to be patient and calm but you are really really annoying.

[franky1]

your model breaks. becomes less accurate and doesnt use a constant..
your proving nothing

anyone can take any data and at one time manipulate it into appearing to conform to a straight line with a range of boundaries/buffer/outliers.
but if at a later date a peer takes your exact numbers and does it themselves and doesnt get the same results.. the theory is debunked

you endless showcasing that you have been working endlessly on it for 15 years shows its broke because you need to keep fixing it periodically

The top line is not supposed to match the highs of the market. It is evident they don't follow a trend. The decay can also be modelled but it is not what the lines are trying to do. They are trying to do the second best thing that is to identify places where the price is too high and it is a good idea to disinvest.

the top line doesnt, thanks for admitting it
however the blue (your supposed mid line) does not even follow the mid point of the market cycle
the green line doesnt even follow the bottom of the market

in short it has nothing to do with the market

you simply straightened a curve into a diagonal chart. and just drew a line for the axis not for the market data.
you then notice you cant get lines to fit the market data so then call it "undervalued" and "over priced" when the market data doesnt fit your silly theory

..
here is a thing though

you can look at the average hashrate of network over a period. look at current gen asics hashrate electric and hardware. and calculate the bitcoin price min and max dependant on dominant global countries electric price. and get a min/max mining cost.. and you will see the market has traded within that range

so not out of bounds of real economics

yep
2021 5k-75k was its global mining cost efficient/inefficient window and the market stayed inbounds
2022 10k-95k was its global mining cost efficient/inefficient window and the market stayed inbounds
2023 15k-110k was its global mining cost efficient/inefficient window and the market stayed inbounds

there are logical, social and economic reasons why the market stays inbounds of global min max mining
if no one on planet can mine for less no one wants to sell for less and everyone sees it cheaper to buy than mine so everyone is buying no one is selling causing a support line no one wants to cross
if everyone on planet can mine for less no one wants to buy for more and everyone sees it cheaper to mine to sell rather than buy, so everyone is mining/selling, no one is buying causing a resistance top line no one wants to cross

so when you then see the market hit those limits but not cross them you see the market is performing as expected when testing the boundaries

[BTCdragosfera]

your model breaks. becomes less accurate and doesnt use a constant..
your proving nothing

anyone can take any data and at one time manipulate it into appearing to conform to a straight line with a range of boundaries/buffer/outliers.
but if at a later date a peer takes your exact numbers and does it themselves and doesnt get the same results.. the theory is debunked

you endless showcasing that you have been working endlessly on it for 15 years shows its broke because you need to keep fixing it periodically

The top line is not supposed to match the highs of the market. It is evident they don't follow a trend. The decay can also be modelled but it is not what the lines are trying to do. They are trying to do the second best thing that is to identify places where the price is too high and it is a good idea to disinvest.

the top line doesnt, thanks for admitting it
however the blue (your supposed mid line) does not even follow the mid point of the market cycle
the green line doesnt even follow the bottom of the market

in short it has nothing to do with the market

you simply straightened a curve into a diagonal chart. and just drew a line for the axis not for the market data.
you then notice you cant get lines to fit the market data so then call it "undervalued" and "over priced" when the market data doesnt fit your silly theory

..
here is a thing though

you can look at the average hashrate of network over a period. look at current gen asics hashrate electric and hardware. and calculate the bitcoin price min and max dependant on dominant global countries electric price. and get a min/max mining cost.. and you will see the market has traded within that range

so not out of bounds of real economics

yep
2021 5k-75k was its global mining cost efficient/inefficient window and the market stayed inbounds
2022 10k-95k was its global mining cost efficient/inefficient window and the market stayed inbounds
2023 15k-110k was its global mining cost efficient/inefficient window and the market stayed inbounds
currently 2024 is 25k-140k

so dont expect price to crash below $25k unless hashrate takes a huge knockdown and markets negatively react
so dont expect price to hype above $140k unless hashrate suddenly increases and markets hyper react

You are simply ignorant. Hard-headed and ignorant.
In fact, I checked your other posts and it is obvious you are ignorant.

You don't even know what shorting is and you want to come here and discuss mathematical modelling.

No, the trend doesn't have to go through the middle of what your eyes says is the middle. In the graph in this thread the middle line is y=x simply. It is the line when the two prices the real and the estimated price meet. Because the black line oscillates around this middle line it shows the model price is on average (the key is average) reproducing the real price. In 5 years from now, the graph will look almost identical, I tried to explain this to you and the only reason I still address it is because some other person will read this and need to know you say just idiocies after idiocies.

As data comes in one updates the model. Of course, if they change radically they are invalid but this model is simply becoming more stable and better.

I don't dictate what the price is doing. It is very obvious to anybody with a minimal amount of math knowledge that the bottom line is determining almost perfectly the bottom prices. You just show how idiotic your comments are by insisting it doesn't. The tops as discussed do not align and there is useful information that seem to indicate they decrease with each cycle. I explained already how we deal with this information (but it went above your head).

No, not everybody can make data go in straight line. I didn't make the data go in straight line, BTC is a straight line one a log-log chart (and this is in a sense a log-log chart given the black dots is the transformation of the data given the power law formula.

You know I talked with many people and you are one of the few people (there was another one a few years ago, not sure if it is you because you two have the same level of ignorance) who is insisting on something while showing a complete lack of understanding about basic concepts and ideas. Not sure if there is an option to block you, I'm looking for that in this antequate app but you are really being disruptive and contribute nothing to the discussion. Maybe I should just ignore you.



 

your model breaks. becomes less accurate and doesnt use a constant..
your proving nothing

anyone can take any data and at one time manipulate it into appearing to conform to a straight line with a range of boundaries/buffer/outliers.
but if at a later date a peer takes your exact numbers and does it themselves and doesnt get the same results.. the theory is debunked

you endless showcasing that you have been working endlessly on it for 15 years shows its broke because you need to keep fixing it periodically

The top line is not supposed to match the highs of the market. It is evident they don't follow a trend. The decay can also be modelled but it is not what the lines are trying to do. They are trying to do the second best thing that is to identify places where the price is too high and it is a good idea to disinvest.

the top line doesnt, thanks for admitting it
however the blue (your supposed mid line) does not even follow the mid point of the market cycle
the green line doesnt even follow the bottom of the market

in short it has nothing to do with the market

you simply straightened a curve into a diagonal chart. and just drew a line for the axis not for the market data.
you then notice you cant get lines to fit the market data so then call it "undervalued" and "over priced" when the market data doesnt fit your silly theory

..
here is a thing though

you can look at the average hashrate of network over a period. look at current gen asics hashrate electric and hardware. and calculate the bitcoin price min and max dependant on dominant global countries electric price. and get a min/max mining cost.. and you will see the market has traded within that range

so not out of bounds of real economics

yep
2021 5k-75k was its global mining cost efficient/inefficient window and the market stayed inbounds
2022 10k-95k was its global mining cost efficient/inefficient window and the market stayed inbounds
2023 15k-110k was its global mining cost efficient/inefficient window and the market stayed inbounds

there are logical, social and economic reasons why the market stays inbounds of global min max mining
if no one on planet can mine for less no one wants to sell for less and everyone sees it cheaper to buy than mine so everyone is buying no one is selling causing a support line no one wants to cross
if everyone on planet can mine for less no one wants to buy for more and everyone sees it cheaper to mine to sell rather than buy, so everyone is mining/selling, no one is buying causing a resistance top line no one wants to cross

so when you then see the market hit those limits but not cross them you see the market is performing as expected when testing the boundaries

Your estimates are not very useful because they are so wide and also they don't tell us where the bottom is or the top, not even close.
Also, do not reveal anything about the behavior of BTC in terms of deep network and fractal properties. If you are not interesting in this discussion simply go back to explain to people (wrongly) what shorting is all about.



[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[franky1]

bitcoin is a curve on a LOG model

YOUR chart is not log .. you manipulated the log multiplier and even you cant use a constant. which shows bitcoin doesnt stay on a straight line because you need to alter the log number periodically

so it doesnt fit a model

its like you want to pretend clothes fit a particular mannequin model. but then endlessly rebuilding the mannequin model to try to ensure the clothes fit

im telling you and alerting others that you mess with the mannequin model, thus no way of knowing the true clothes size comparison/expectation

analogy
imagine you had weighing scales in your house and you want to tell your wife you can lose 8% weight by next year
you would happily turn the dial/adjust sprints/counter balance, under the scales to make 1kg=0.92kg

and then show her that the read-out says you are 8% lighter.. shouting "but the scales prove my weight" and getting angry if she even suggests you tweaked the measurements and not had constants to compare physics to your body weight

[BTCdragosfera]

bitcoin is a curve on a LOG model

YOUR chart is not log .. you manipulated the log multiplier and even you cant use a constant. which shows bitcoin doesnt stay on a straight line because you need to alter the log number periodically

so it doesnt fit a model

its like you want to pretend clothes fit a particular mannequin model. but then endlessly rebuilding the mannequin model to try to ensure the clothes fit

im telling you and alerting others that you mess with the mannequin model, thus no way of knowing the true clothes size comparison/expectation

analogy
imagine you had weighing scales in your house and you want to tell your wife you can lose 8% weight by next year
you would happily turn the dial/adjust sprints/counter balance, under the scales to make 1kg=0.92kg

and then show her that the read-out says you are 8% lighter.. shouting "but the scales prove my weight" and getting angry if she even suggests you tweaked the measurements and not had constants to compare physics to your body weight

How many times I need to repeat myself? YES, BTC IS A CURVE ON A LOG-LINEAR CHART !!!! I know because that is exactly what a power law looks on a log-linear chart, that curve is EXACTLY a power law.

Here is you can see the same graph here, it curves, same equation, same model, different chart type. Learn something.

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746243124278804748/photo/1

When you plot the same graph on a log-log chart then it becomes a straight line. That is what power laws do.

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746082576337625380/photo/1

Do you get it now?

The graph I posted here is another type of graph where I calculated the price given by the model above and plotted on the x-axis and the real price on the y-axis. I know this is too difficult for you to comprehend but stop to say idiocies.

It is just 3 ways of showing the same thing.

There is nothing tweaked, there is nothing changed. These are models. If you don't understand it is your problem.

 

[BTCdragosfera]

bitcoin is a curve on a LOG model

YOUR chart is not log .. you manipulated the log multiplier and even you cant use a constant. which shows bitcoin doesnt stay on a straight line because you need to alter the log number periodically

so it doesnt fit a model

its like you want to pretend clothes fit a particular mannequin model. but then endlessly rebuilding the mannequin model to try to ensure the clothes fit

im telling you and alerting others that you mess with the mannequin model, thus no way of knowing the true clothes size comparison/expectation

analogy
imagine you had weighing scales in your house and you want to tell your wife you can lose 8% weight by next year
you would happily turn the dial/adjust sprints/counter balance, under the scales to make 1kg=0.92kg

and then show her that the read-out says you are 8% lighter.. shouting "but the scales prove my weight" and getting angry if she even suggests you tweaked the measurements and not had constants to compare physics to your body weight

How many times I need to repeat myself? YES, BTC IS A CURVE ON A LOG-LINEAR CHART !!!! I know because that is exactly what a power law looks on a log-linear chart, that curve is EXACTLY a power law.

Here is you can see the same graph here, it curves, same equation, same model, different chart type. Learn something.

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746243124278804748/photo/1

When you plot the same graph on a log-log chart then it becomes a straight line. That is what power laws do.

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746082576337625380/photo/1

Do you get it now?

The graph I posted here is another type of graph where I calculated the price given by the model above and plotted on the x-axis and the real price on the y-axis. I know this is too difficult for you to comprehend but stop to say idiocies.

It is just 3 ways of showing the same thing.

There is nothing tweaked, there is nothing changed. These are models. If you don't understand it is your problem.

 

Have you ever analyzed data in your life?
Very such a thing called randomness and noise.
Try to measure the temperature in a room. Of course is going to change over time. What you do is measure over and over and then take an average. You can then plot a distribution of the noise level to see which kind of randomness you are dealing with, you can calculate standard deviations, and so on. Every measurement has noise. You want to teach me, what I taught in college how to do measurements, how to do an experiment and calibrate things, lol. Your example is stupid. You have no idea of what noise is, how to estimate errors, statistical methods and so on. In fact, you have no idea what a short is and you still wanted to debate that. You have Legendary status but you are simply a troll.



 

[BTCdragosfera]

bitcoin is a curve on a LOG model

YOUR chart is not log .. you manipulated the log multiplier and even you cant use a constant. which shows bitcoin doesnt stay on a straight line because you need to alter the log number periodically

so it doesnt fit a model

its like you want to pretend clothes fit a particular mannequin model. but then endlessly rebuilding the mannequin model to try to ensure the clothes fit

im telling you and alerting others that you mess with the mannequin model, thus no way of knowing the true clothes size comparison/expectation

analogy
imagine you had weighing scales in your house and you want to tell your wife you can lose 8% weight by next year
you would happily turn the dial/adjust sprints/counter balance, under the scales to make 1kg=0.92kg

and then show her that the read-out says you are 8% lighter.. shouting "but the scales prove my weight" and getting angry if she even suggests you tweaked the measurements and not had constants to compare physics to your body weight

How many times I need to repeat myself? YES, BTC IS A CURVE ON A LOG-LINEAR CHART !!!! I know because that is exactly what a power law looks on a log-linear chart, that curve is EXACTLY a power law.

Here is you can see the same graph here, it curves, same equation, same model, different chart type. Learn something.

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746243124278804748/photo/1

When you plot the same graph on a log-log chart then it becomes a straight line. That is what power laws do.

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746082576337625380/photo/1

Do you get it now?

The graph I posted here is another type of graph where I calculated the price given by the model above and plotted on the x-axis and the real price on the y-axis. I know this is too difficult for you to comprehend but stop to say idiocies.

It is just 3 ways of showing the same thing.

There is nothing tweaked, there is nothing changed. These are models. If you don't understand it is your problem.

 

Also, stop harassing me, I'm serious now. Your comments are just trolling at this point and I initiated this thread. Just go and discuss with somebody else. I will look at the rules on the site and report you if necessary.

[BTCdragosfera]

This graph addresses the comments of the skeptics that say the model will change the parameters over time and so it is not valid. The parameters change slightly as we add more data mostly because of the large deviations during the bubbles. It depends if you do the fitting near the top or bottom. This has nothing to do with the goodness of the model but the fact we have a phenomenon with a general trend and period of large deviations.

Anyway, I calculated the slope and y-intercept of the power law for each day in the last 7 years and created a model for each day using these parameters extrapolated to today and all the data for the real up today (so it is easy to compare all the models). I then averaged the model given the parameters oscillate around a mean value. I compare with the model today. This is the result:

https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111/status/1746312103089328281

As you can see the model today and the average over parameters up to 7 years ago is basically identical for all purposes. This shows the power law pattern is stable in time. This should resolve all doubts.

Of course, it doesn't guarantee that is going to work forever but even if does we will learn something about the dynamic of BTC. So far the power law has been respected and I will expect to work in the same for several years in the future.

[franky1]

what constant/formulae did you use this time

also


you only changed things from 7 years ago (mid way)
look on the right the blue line sits at 1.5 but the blue is ~1.25
meaning not a 8% error.. but at >20% error

and thats just from chart manipulation of flattening the curve.. before even adding in extra lines for mid, top bottom

[DooMAD]

Can't say I'm overly keen on the name.  If it's a power law, just stick with power law.  The word "scaling" is far more closely associated with network usage, not price.  I feel it just creates unnecessary confusion.

Aside from that, you have my support.  Ignore renowned troll franky1.  No one takes him seriously and the forum is a much nicer place with him added to your ignore list.

[BTCdragosfera]

Can't say I'm overly keen on the name.  If it's a power law, just stick with power law.  The word "scaling" is far more closely associated with network usage, not price.  I feel it just creates unnecessary confusion.

Aside from that, you have my support.  Ignore renowned troll franky1.  No one takes him seriously and the forum is a much nicer place with him added to your ignore list.

Yeah, I understand what you say, I didn't think about that, people may confuse "scaling" with network usage even if in this case I meant the scale of price (10,100,1000) and scaling of time. But I can see how this can lead to confusion. Scaling is a term we use in physics, and I was trying to emphasize that physics terminology. There is a good book by G. West called "Scale" that is all about this topic but I understand what you are saying.
Yeah, franky1 is a troll, very annoying.

[CODE200]

The law is not clear to me exactly, but it seems to be a variation of Moore's law. Price to time, I believe in this case?

But that also means that the price will eventually flat-line, *some time* over the next couple decades. I mean it can't keep growing in price constantly, forever like this. Moore's law itself has already flat-lined (despite chip manufacturers not wanting to admit it).

That flatlining isn't totally true yet because they're pushing the chips and the transistors in the wafers to the absolute limit, I believe that they're getting closer to creating a transistor that's getting closer or about halfway close to the size of an atom so I don't believe that a plateau or a flatline in computing is ever going to happen, humans are a natural boundary pushing species so who knows what's next for us in computing power and this belief is shared with this one bitcoin scaling law too as it's definitely oddly similar to Moore's law, as time goes by, there's going to be more and more people that will either lose their bitcoins permanently through forgotten passwords, destroyed hardware wallets, voluntary bitcoin burning and other stuff and it's going to grow the same as bitcoin adoption together with the prices which means that a plateauing of the price is close to impossible.

[geniuspedro]

 I find your work on the BTC Scaling Law intriguing. Renaming it the "BTC Scaling Model" to reflect the relationship between price scales and time scales is a logical step. Your model's approach to predict Bitcoin's growth over a significant period and magnitude using a power law framework is an innovative take in the crypto analysis space.

The use of model price as the x-axis and the real price as the y-axis is an interesting method to gauge the accuracy of your predictions. It's notable that your model aligns with the general trend of Bitcoin over an extended period, considering the volatility inherent in cryptocurrency markets.

The practical application of your model in identifying overvalued or undervalued phases of Bitcoin could be valuable for investors, provided it's used cautiously and in conjunction with other analysis tools. However, it's important to remember that no predictive model is foolproof, especially in a market as unpredictable as cryptocurrencies.

Your initiative to apply scientific and mathematical principles to financial market analysis is commendable and contributes to the evolving field of cryptocurrency analytics. I'm interested to see further developments and more detailed insights in your upcoming article.