Bullrun top

[kentrolla]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bitcoin normally reaches previous cycle's ATH during the halving year. Then why do you think we're not going to exceed last cycle's ATH this year? 

See here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.msg63374431#msg63374431

Its never been less than a year from halving to subsequent high:

I think he was referring to the previous cycle's ATH, not the new ATH.  So, the right question would be, considering previous cycles, do we expect 69k by the end of this year?

Hey the question remains the same because $69k is the current ATH which was achieved in last cycle hence the question would be Bitcoin breaches it's previous ATH and reaches new ATH in the halving year. The answer would be "NO", Bitcoin doesn't breach the previous ATH in the halving year but rather the following year and I think the cycle will repeat and Bitcoin might not break $69k this year since 2024 is the halving year. It should eventually happen in 2025.

[Marvelman]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bitcoin normally reaches previous cycle's ATH during the halving year. Then why do you think we're not going to exceed last cycle's ATH this year? 

See here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.msg63374431#msg63374431

Its never been less than a year from halving to subsequent high:

I think he was referring to the previous cycle's ATH, not the new ATH.  So, the right question would be, considering previous cycles, do we expect 69k by the end of this year?

Hey the question remains the same because $69k is the current ATH which was achieved in last cycle hence the question would be Bitcoin breaches it's previous ATH and reaches new ATH in the halving year. The answer would be "NO", Bitcoin doesn't breach the previous ATH in the halving year but rather the following year and I think the cycle will repeat and Bitcoin might not break $69k this year since 2024 is the halving year. It should eventually happen in 2025.

Well, if we look at it historically, I don't think that's entirely true. 

In the 2012 halving, Bitcoin was still in its early stages of development, and adoption was much much lower. 

First halving cycle (November 2012 - July 2016) - Highest price $1,170 (November 2013)   

In the 2016 halving, Bitcoin had gained more traction, and adoption was increasing. The price reached $1040 in 2016, which was still below the previous all-time high from 2013, but very close. The price reached a new ATH in February 2017.

Second halving cycle (July 2016 - May 2020) - Highest price $19,400 (December 2017)   

The price reached $20,000 in 2020 (after the third halving), which surpassed the previous all-time high from 2017. The closing price for BTC in 2020 was $28,994.00, on December 31, which is almost a 50% increase compared to the previous ATH.

So if history repeats itself, we could even see >100k by the end of this year.

sources:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin-price

[SeriouslyGiveaway]

Based on historical data, after Bitcoin's halving event, Bitcoin will break its old peak 6 months later. The Bitcoin Halving event is expected to take place on April 20, so if based on what has happened, around the end of this year (October to December) we will see Bitcoin break through  its old peak of 69k USD in 2021. So, to prepare for the upcoming growth of Bitcoin, I believe now is the best time to accumulate and buy Bitcoin. If we take the current price of 40k USD, then if you buy now, at least by the end of the year you will have a profit of about 75% with almost no risk. I think this is the most attractive investment this year

[Poker Player]

Based on historical data, after Bitcoin's halving event, Bitcoin will break its old peak 6 months later. The Bitcoin Halving event is expected to take place on April 20, so if based on what has happened, around the end of this year (October to December) we will see Bitcoin break through  its old peak of 69k USD in 2021. So, to prepare for the upcoming growth of Bitcoin, I believe now is the best time to accumulate and buy Bitcoin. If we take the current price of 40k USD, then if you buy now, at least by the end of the year you will have a profit of about 75% with almost no risk. I think this is the most attractive investment this year

Yes, but always bearing in mind that what has happened historically need not be repeated in this cycle, as has been discussed, and, in fact, as more and more cycles pass, we will most likely see more irregularities in the supposed historical pattern (I say supposed because patterns are a human construct, as I have explained in several threads on the subject).

But yes, I too think it is quite safe to buy now and we will have an interesting appreciation over the next year or year and a half.

[LoyceV]

with that said. when a pattern is too well known. many people anticipate and plan to beat the pattern, thus breaking the pattern

On second thought: doesn't the anticipation speed up the pattern? If enough people start buying Bitcoin because they expect it to go up, it will go up. But then they'll expect it to drop eventually, so they'll start selling. They don't want to be too late, so they'll sell earlier and earlier each bull run until eventually the increased scarcity from the halving is completely included in the price before the halving even happens.

[thecodebear]

Market top won't be this year. If it was that would be a whole year earlier than the previous cycles.


I expect it won't quite take until Nov/Dec 2025 for the peak to hit this time around. I would guess it will peak summer / early Fall 2025. I think by end of 2024 the price will already have passed the ATH, simliar to 2020, except whereas 2020 didn't do much for the first 9 months of the year and then the price started shooting up in the Fall, I think Bitcoin will gradually grind up this year toward $70k+ instead of doing it all in just the last few months. And I expect ATH to actually get hit maybe early Fall, like Sept/Oct, with the price maybe reaching $80k by end of year.

[peter0425]

Hi all, long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024

each ATH (bullrun top) happens +1 year after halving

thus mid spring-summer 2025 prediction for next ATH (bullrun top)

halving year normally does not exceed previous ATH

so 2024 pattern would expect to not exceed 2021 ATH($70k)

..
with that said. when a pattern is too well known. many people anticipate and plan to beat the pattern, thus breaking the pattern

Clear enough to understand the market and the movement from the first Halving up to now and not like what most said in many thread that they are expecting Bull Market this year at least in December but suddenly this  make things possible to understand that in the following year means 2025 is the time that the breaking of ATH means we may see  100k in that same year .
I also once listen to those comment but now finally realized that there will never be Bull market this year not even there is the approval of Bitcoin ETF.

[EarnOnVictor]

Hi all, long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024

Do you mean the bull run coming, as we've not returned to an immediate one now? Well, I expect a huge bull run this year, something similar to what we experienced a few months ago, but it will be double of that size as it will be the major one expected by everyone, so there will be FOMO everywhere at that time. This will happen after halving, the effect might not be immediate, but I suspect an immediate one this time due to the people's expectations that are more than before. Though it might start in weeks as people just want to be part of the world cake brought by Bitcoin, no one wants to miss out like the old times.

We will do well if we are still patient for now though, the market is not just encouraging now, and at the current high level of $40,000, I think that it is not so good to risk buying heavily now unless you want to DCA the coin. Nevertheless, be sure of Bitcoin hitting above $100,000 in the next bull run, and I suspect that it would have hit that level in the late months of this year or the early months of next year. I hope this meets a good view of yours as well, but be very careful and DYOR even as you engage the market carefully and managerially.

[Fundamentals Of]

I guess I consider myself as a long time investor. I don't have much, but I have been hodling my little Bitcoin for many years already. I have Bitcoin that can be traced back more than 5 years ago. It's small but it's growing little by little.

This bull run will be bigger than any bull run in the past. This bull run, I'm referring to the bull run following the halving in April, is going to get us back to the ATH which was hit more than 2 years ago already. Not only that, this next huge bull run will finally bring us to $100,000 for the first time.

[sabaideemai]

Hi all, long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024

Do you mean the bull run coming, as we've not returned to an immediate one now? Well, I expect a huge bull run this year, something similar to what we experienced a few months ago, but it will be double of that size as it will be the major one expected by everyone, so there will be FOMO everywhere at that time. This will happen after halving, the effect might not be immediate, but I suspect an immediate one this time due to the people's expectations that are more than before. Though it might start in weeks as people just want to be part of the world cake brought by Bitcoin, no one wants to miss out like the old times.

We will do well if we are still patient for now though, the market is not just encouraging now, and at the current high level of $40,000, I think that it is not so good to risk buying heavily now unless you want to DCA the coin. Nevertheless, be sure of Bitcoin hitting above $100,000 in the next bull run, and I suspect that it would have hit that level in the late months of this year or the early months of next year. I hope this meets a good view of yours as well, but be very careful and DYOR even as you engage the market carefully and managerially.

Yes this bullrun we are already in /started....

[Dave1]

Hi all, long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024

Do you mean the bull run coming, as we've not returned to an immediate one now? Well, I expect a huge bull run this year, something similar to what we experienced a few months ago, but it will be double of that size as it will be the major one expected by everyone, so there will be FOMO everywhere at that time. This will happen after halving, the effect might not be immediate, but I suspect an immediate one this time due to the people's expectations that are more than before. Though it might start in weeks as people just want to be part of the world cake brought by Bitcoin, no one wants to miss out like the old times.

We will do well if we are still patient for now though, the market is not just encouraging now, and at the current high level of $40,000, I think that it is not so good to risk buying heavily now unless you want to DCA the coin. Nevertheless, be sure of Bitcoin hitting above $100,000 in the next bull run, and I suspect that it would have hit that level in the late months of this year or the early months of next year. I hope this meets a good view of yours as well, but be very careful and DYOR even as you engage the market carefully and managerially.

Yes this bullrun we are already in /started....

I don't know if we can call this a bull run already, as per definition though and as far as I can see, bull run starts right after the halving. So although we have seen the price going as high as $49k after the news of approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF, the price still makes a correction. So for me it's better to wait after the halving and see how the market will grow overtime.

It could be close to $100k for this year, but the top could happen in 2025 though. And we should get to it one step at a time. I mean we should peak at our previous ATH for this year, and then by next year bull run continues and it could be as high as $180k++.

[Mate2237]

Hi all, long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024

There are different predictions in market. Many are predicting that before the thi year will end and after the halving the bull will start to manifest in the market and there will be different signs in the market. Some predicted that before this year will end, the price of bitcoin will be on the rate of $50+k to $60+k and others are predicting that in the bull of next year, the price will reach at least $100,000 US dollar. These are all good predictions before the market is also in the volatile nature so nobody knows what up of the market.

In my own opinion in the market, now that bitcoin has not even reach halving and the price is reading $40k and above then after the halving for one month interval bitcoin price will reach $50k and at the end of the closing year the price will hit $55k.

[darkangel11]

I guess I consider myself as a long time investor. I don't have much, but I have been hodling my little Bitcoin for many years already. I have Bitcoin that can be traced back more than 5 years ago. It's small but it's growing little by little.

This bull run will be bigger than any bull run in the past. This bull run, I'm referring to the bull run following the halving in April, is going to get us back to the ATH which was hit more than 2 years ago already. Not only that, this next huge bull run will finally bring us to $100,000 for the first time.

And I think it's going to be smaller because of Wall Street involvement. These people aren't interested in 300% gains, all they need is a simple 20% a year and they'll be happy with how much money they have, so I think that if we get a strong bull run they will try to capitalize on that and one entity holding 500k bitcoin can do what it wants in this market. It can stop any bull run if it decides to dump it.
I strongly believe that if we go 2x from the last ATH Wall Street will be selling everything because they rarely experience that kind of profit these days.
Don't misunderstand me, I'm not bearish here. 2x is somewhere between 120k and 150k, but I don't see this bull market as stronger than 2018 or 2013. The more institutions get involved the less gains I'd expect from bitcoin. Probably only 150k this cycle and maybe 250k next cycle in 2028.

[STT]

I think top of market is actually 2025 probably not this year as we are starting too late maybe.   Right now theres a downtrend to work out.   Later on we have halvening to navigate which is not all automatically positive, a rough guess for trajectory and rate of possible gains in this year I would say to just extrapolate the previous 3 or 6 months of price action.    Since we've so often gone sideways this idea does not lead us to grand price gains unless we break out and exceed previous trajectory which is where I would stop expecting this outcome to come true.

[el kaka22]

I agree with people that it is going to take about 13-15 months to see the peak, doesn't mean that it has to be exactly at that point, there could be some changes, but it will definitely look a bit different. I think that should be the point. I know that it will take some time for people to see this as working, but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with anything major, we just need to wait until then and accumulate as much as possible.

When the time comes and the bull run starts, it is not going to be just one month, it will start going up more and more, and will peak at some point. Our job is to make a lot of profit during that period from here to peak, that's when the real money is made, many people retire from their earnings during bull runs.

[hugeblack]

most of the predictions say that we will be between $40,000 to $70,000 this year and $100,000 to $170,000 for the next year. Therefore, unless there are changes, these expectations will remain the basic ones, even though in the previous cycle the bottom was less than $20,000, which is what It may suggest a change in the shape of the 4-year bitcoin cycles, but it is better not to bet on that according to the current circumstances.

[EarnOnVictor]

Hi all, long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024

Do you mean the bull run coming, as we've not returned to an immediate one now? Well, I expect a huge bull run this year, something similar to what we experienced a few months ago, but it will be double of that size as it will be the major one expected by everyone, so there will be FOMO everywhere at that time. This will happen after halving, the effect might not be immediate, but I suspect an immediate one this time due to the people's expectations that are more than before. Though it might start in weeks as people just want to be part of the world cake brought by Bitcoin, no one wants to miss out like the old times.

We will do well if we are still patient for now though, the market is not just encouraging now, and at the current high level of $40,000, I think that it is not so good to risk buying heavily now unless you want to DCA the coin. Nevertheless, be sure of Bitcoin hitting above $100,000 in the next bull run, and I suspect that it would have hit that level in the late months of this year or the early months of next year. I hope this meets a good view of yours as well, but be very careful and DYOR even as you engage the market carefully and managerially.

Yes this bullrun we are already in /started....

I don't know if we can call this a bull run already, as per definition though and as far as I can see, bull run starts right after the halving. So although we have seen the price going as high as $49k after the news of approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF, the price still makes a correction. So for me it's better to wait after the halving and see how the market will grow overtime.

Bro, let me just make it clear to you, you might be right that a bull run happens at halving time, but it might not start then and that is a major bull run where the market will move so much, others could happen. This doesn't stop the mini-bull run from happening, which is what we experienced in the last months of 2023. A bull run simply means a bullish trend, and it would be wrong of anyone to condemn the bullish trend that happened for 5 months as no bull run. Even at correction, it can still rebound and continue the movements. Good, the major bull run is coming after halving, we are all waiting for it and it might make the Bitcoin market move so well to hit the current ATH and move higher to even above $100,000.

Though this is a speculation, but would be what will likely happen. These would be the post-halving effect of the market. But don't you think that it might be too late for some people if it is then they are now investing in Bitcoin? Imagine those who started their investment on the first day of 2023, they are assured to make money in Bitcoin in multiples even if the post-halving effect will not see it far more than $100,000. But for those who are waiting for having, what if Bitcoin continues to push higher and almost hits the ATH of $69,000 when the halving happens, what will be their fate if the next ATH will be barely $100,000+? They can't make much, it is obvious.

[Fundamentals Of]

I guess I consider myself as a long time investor. I don't have much, but I have been hodling my little Bitcoin for many years already. I have Bitcoin that can be traced back more than 5 years ago. It's small but it's growing little by little.

This bull run will be bigger than any bull run in the past. This bull run, I'm referring to the bull run following the halving in April, is going to get us back to the ATH which was hit more than 2 years ago already. Not only that, this next huge bull run will finally bring us to $100,000 for the first time.

And I think it's going to be smaller because of Wall Street involvement. These people aren't interested in 300% gains, all they need is a simple 20% a year and they'll be happy with how much money they have, so I think that if we get a strong bull run they will try to capitalize on that and one entity holding 500k bitcoin can do what it wants in this market. It can stop any bull run if it decides to dump it.
I strongly believe that if we go 2x from the last ATH Wall Street will be selling everything because they rarely experience that kind of profit these days.
Don't misunderstand me, I'm not bearish here. 2x is somewhere between 120k and 150k, but I don't see this bull market as stronger than 2018 or 2013. The more institutions get involved the less gains I'd expect from bitcoin. Probably only 150k this cycle and maybe 250k next cycle in 2028.

The likes of BlackRock probably doesn't fully care whether there's a bull run or not. After all, whether the price increases or decreases, the fees will continue to flow. And that's where the money comes from. But a bull run is probably a big reason for investors to be bullish as well. More investment flows in. That's more fees, more money, as well.

These investment companies don't own the billions of dollars in Bitcoin they're holding. Those coins are not at their disposal. They can't just dump them whenever they want. It's not theirs.

[tygeade]

The likes of BlackRock probably doesn't fully care whether there's a bull run or not. After all, whether the price increases or decreases, the fees will continue to flow. And that's where the money comes from. But a bull run is probably a big reason for investors to be bullish as well. More investment flows in. That's more fees, more money, as well.

These investment companies don't own the billions of dollars in Bitcoin they're holding. Those coins are not at their disposal. They can't just dump them whenever they want. It's not theirs.

That is exactly what the exchanges in the crypto world think as well, but for some reason people like them a lot more. When there is a bull run, people run to coinbase and binance and what not, thinking they are great places to make money, when in reality, the yare also the places most lose their money too, they work both ways. If there is a volume then there is a profit, they take money from the trading fee.

All in all, both blackrock and exchanges make more money during bull run, because in theory it has been proven that during bull run people trade more, so they get more trading fee, that means companies make more profit. They are not really happy that you are making a profit, but they are happy that price going up means they are getting more fee from you.

[kentrolla]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bitcoin normally reaches previous cycle's ATH during the halving year. Then why do you think we're not going to exceed last cycle's ATH this year? 

See here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.msg63374431#msg63374431

Its never been less than a year from halving to subsequent high:

I think he was referring to the previous cycle's ATH, not the new ATH.  So, the right question would be, considering previous cycles, do we expect 69k by the end of this year?

Hey the question remains the same because $69k is the current ATH which was achieved in last cycle hence the question would be Bitcoin breaches it's previous ATH and reaches new ATH in the halving year. The answer would be "NO", Bitcoin doesn't breach the previous ATH in the halving year but rather the following year and I think the cycle will repeat and Bitcoin might not break $69k this year since 2024 is the halving year. It should eventually happen in 2025.

Well, if we look at it historically, I don't think that's entirely true. 

In the 2012 halving, Bitcoin was still in its early stages of development, and adoption was much much lower. 

First halving cycle (November 2012 - July 2016) - Highest price $1,170 (November 2013)   

In the 2016 halving, Bitcoin had gained more traction, and adoption was increasing. The price reached $1040 in 2016, which was still below the previous all-time high from 2013, but very close. The price reached a new ATH in February 2017.

Second halving cycle (July 2016 - May 2020) - Highest price $19,400 (December 2017)   

The price reached $20,000 in 2020 (after the third halving), which surpassed the previous all-time high from 2017. The closing price for BTC in 2020 was $28,994.00, on December 31, which is almost a 50% increase compared to the previous ATH.

So if history repeats itself, we could even see >100k by the end of this year.

sources:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin-price

Well it's pretty much possible if history repeats itself but if Bitcoin breaches previous ATH then the expectations of bull run will be ignited further and $100k will break hell loose as it would be an historic landmark figure which has been predicted for a while. All I would say is that we can expect a repeat of previous cycles but need to be ready for any outcome and have alternative plans in place as crypto is highly unpredictable and there is no guarantee that same trend may repeat though I believe we will see history repeating.