Bitcoin's meteoric rise has sparked comparisons to gold, particularly as a hedge against inflation^[1]. Some even envision it supplanting the precious metal as the ultimate store of value^[2]. However, the path to surpassing gold's market cap of $13.47 trillion remains shrouded in uncertainty^[3-4].


Currently, Bitcoin stands at just 7.1% of that value, requiring a 14-fold increase to bridge the gap and reach $678,000 per unit. While optimists like PlanB predicted a $500,000 price point^[5], even that falls short of dethroning gold.

Historical trends paint a complex picture. While Bitcoin's price momentum seems to be waning compared to traditional indices like the DJIA, it's unclear if this deceleration will persist. Assuming current growth rates, 2028 is the earliest possible date for Bitcoin to reach gold's valuation. However, factoring in potential gold price inflation due to uncontrollable economic factors, the timeline could stretch to 2035-2040.


But surpassing gold might not be the ultimate victory. An exorbitant price could hinder Bitcoin's utility as a payment method, relegating it to government reserves. Perhaps a more achievable and beneficial goal lies in surpassing larger corporations like Microsoft ($3.026 trillion), placing Bitcoin's value at a more accessible $154,000 per unit.

I want to know your opinion:

• Do you think Bitcoin has any chance of catching up and then surpassing Gold in capitalization?
• If so, when in the future might that event take place?
• If this happens, will it be a good thing for Bitcoin?

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References:
[1] GrayScale: October 2023: Rising demand for Bitcoin as Digital Gold
[2] ‘The Bitcoin Standard’: A review
[3] Gold vs. Bitcoin: Which Is Better?
[4] Top Assets by Market Cap
[5] Bitcoin Will be Scarcer Than Gold After Halving, $500K BTC Price Predicted

Gold is currently at about $13.5 trillion. Bitcoin is just under a trillion. Yes it'll happen, but it'll take awhile.

Bitcoin supply is currently 19.6+ million. Since it will take a while to catch Gold, let's just use a future supply of 20.8 million for this calculation. So let's say it there will roughly be 20.8 million bitcoin when it catches Gold. It'll hit 20.8 million in 2035 but I'm just using that supply as a rough estimate.

Gold current value $13.5 trillion divided by 20.8 million bitcoin = ~$650k

Based on that number I would guess the 2036/37 bull run (assuming the four year market cycle hasn't largely faded away by then) would see Bitcoin passing $650k and $13.5 trillion.

But of course, Gold's market cap will likely grow during the next dozen years.

About 1.5% of the total Gold supply is mined on average on an annual basis so per decade there is about 16% growth in Gold supply. And additionally on top of that the price of Gold is likely to continue to go up over the long term by at least a few percent annually on average. So if we think Bitcoin will hit $650k by the end of 2036 (remember halvings are slightly less than four years so if 4 year boom/bust market cycle still exists at that point the halving is gonna be in 2035 and bull run would likely be in 2036, not 2037), well even if Gold's price doesn't move it's supply will increase by about 21% in the next 13 years, putting it at about $16.3 trillion. Now let's add in 13 years of growth let's just assume 4% annual price appreciation and that puts Gold at a market cap of about $27 trillion! Double what it is today!

That means while Bitcoin might pass $13.5 trillion market cap in 2036, it'll still only be half of Gold's market cap. Must better than the <1/13th it is today, but still far off. So it could very well. $27 trillion market cap for the entire 21 million bitcoin would be $1.285 million price for Bitcoin. I would expect Bitcoin to hit that in the 2040s, perhaps in the first half of that decade, but of course Gold should be a bit higher than that by then. So I think it's likely we should expect Bitcoin to not actually pass Gold and become the most valuable single asset on the planet until the late 2040's. I'll go ahead and say by 2050 Bitcoin will have surpassed Gold, and when it'll probably take a price of around $2 million for bitcoin to do it.

Of course if Gold price increases faster than 4%/year, or if it increases more slowly, like say because Bitcoin is eating Gold's use case as the world's primary store of value, then the ultimate flippening could happen well before or well after 2050. For example, in 2049, after 25 years of growth (given 1.5% annual Gold supply increases), if Gold's price increased by 3% annually it will have reached about $41T, but 4% would be $52T, 5% would be $66T. The difference between those on Bitcoin's price would be $1.95 million, $2.476 million, and $3.14 million. And obviously those three prices like represent a decent span of years for Bitcoin. Compounding growth over many years is pretty crazy! So Gold's growth from here on out will have a big effect on how many years it takes Bitcoin to catch it.


Honestly I assumed it would happen in the 2030s, but after writing this up I realize I never accounted for Gold's own growth before, so the Gold flippening won't happen for much longer than I had previous assumed.


One thing that could accelerate Bitcoin's growth and allow it to pass Gold significantly sooner is if at some point in the next 20 years major nations start treating Bitcoin like Gold and hold it as part of their national reserves. Especially if they sell some Gold to replace it with Bitcoin, thus also putting sell pressure on Gold. Nations could easily buy up hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin even when prices are well into the six digits if they decide to future proof their reserves by going with a Gold + Digital Gold mix instead of just Gold.

But 2050 sounds about right to me, without having to try to guess about potential events that totally change the long term trajectory of Bitcoin or Gold's price.

in the first place, why are we chasing the market performance of gold? why not be grateful that this btc or crypto market 8s already gaining mainstream audience? do remember gold has been with humanity since the beginning of time.
so there's no rush in chasing after the gold market. be grateful that crypto market is getting the adoption of the public and more and more stakeholders are joining in this market. i guess a lot of people already changed their stance towards this market from being labeled as used by fraudsters to being used as legal tender by several governments. you can already see the difference how it evolves thru time.

Nothing will change if Bitcoin exceeds gold in terms of market capacity. Some markets are worth more than gold. However, gold will exist, Bitcoin will exist, and the stock market will exist. Bitcoin and gold are two assets that are not related to each other, which means that it is good to invest in Bitcoin and gold to diversify your investment portfolio and Bitcoin will not be a competitor to gold, or if Bitcoin surpasses gold, everyone will abandon gold and invest in Bitcoin.

The assumption that Bitcoin will overtake gold at a price of ~$650k is not correct. With current inflation, the year 2037 will be completely different from 2024, and the value of ~$650k will be completely different from its value in 2037.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

Total market cap of gold is more than 13 times higher than Bitcoin market cap. If Bitcoin can have x2 for each halving, it will need about 6 to 7 more halvings to catch gold market cap in 2024.

With this humble expectation (x2 for each halving), it will be achieve in a year of 2064.

If you increase this price expectation from x2 to like x3 in average for future halvings, a target year will be sooner than 2064.

Bitcoin has not been priced the way Gold is, so I do not always look at them as competitors the way people do. They also do not have the same importance if not for the people's money that makes them assets. Going forward, a tight race between them is possible, especially this time when Bitcoin is now advancing with the ETF arrangements. If it works it may attract more investors and that will surely increase the market capitalization. But Gold is not growing so much and not reducing so much too, this means that it is somewhat stable. It is slowly increasing and reducing in the market capitalization, and at times, it would have a higher cap that will still be significant. I have loved the sustaining part for so long, nevertheless, it is still holding it above $13T in most cases.

But for Bitcoin, I do not have so much to say about it other than it has a bullish and bearish season, it is highly volatile when it comes to market capitalization and so unstable. Unlike Gold, it can drop multiples of its price and liquidity within 2 years, and it can gain it back pretty fast too, even within just a year. Such an asset is highly unpredictable. Coupled with the age, one can only guess the market capitalization but it may not be able to be consistent about it unlike Gold has maintained it on the high side for long.

1. Knowing that Bitcoin is superior to gold in literally all ways besides the bling-bling factor of looking rich in public, of course. If anything, since bitcoin will be far more accessible to people and the fact that it's far easier to store, then I'd argue far higher than gold's marketcap.

2. 5 years:   30% chance
    10 years: 70% chance
    20 years: 90% chance

    ^in my opinion.

3. Of course it is lol.

I got data if the gold reserves but for 2021, I am trying to find the latest data has not found. At the end of 2021, it is estimated that 208,874 metric tons of gold already exist. Excluding the unprocessed (in the ground). It is estimated that the current Gold Market Capitalization is around $13,464 T. This capitalization will continue to change as gold mining in the world continues. ^[1]

Other data I got in USD

If you look at this graph, of course, the current capitalization of Bitcoin is very far from gold. But if you look at the increase in capitalization of Gold they rose from increased from about 8k trillion to about 14k trillion US dollars. Whereas Bitcoin was about 1 billion US dollars in 2013 to 1.15 trillion US dollars in November 2021 and the decline for now is around 865 billion.^[2]  There is a difference of about 10 times. If calculated in ATH speculation in 4 years calculated with the supply in circulation it is confusing. LOL. I don't think so in the near future, maybe I'll estimate when I retire from work. CMIIW

1] https://companiesmarketcap.com/gold/marketcap/
2] https://ingoldwetrust.report/chart-gold-bitcoin-marketcap/?lang=en

And I don't know why we really need to surpassed gold by the way? It is for bragging rights? What significant it can bring to the market anyways? Both are different, only comparison is that both assets are scarce, but after that? I don't know. I don't think that it will be beneficial to surpassed big companies. For sure, we have broken already in the top 10 as we are in bullish momentum specially in the next 2 years.


https://coinmarketcap.com/largest-companies/

But after that when we go back to bear market, market capitalization will obviously go down. So for me, let the market go on it's own course, and no need to compare it to other assets of market value. It will be different as our market is very volatile.

Its not only "can Bitcoin surpass gold" [/i]but "should it?". Compared to gold, Bitcoin is like lightning to a lantern's steady illumination. Both contribute to the economy. Bitcoin, 7.1% of gold's market worth, faces a steep climb.

I doubt yet hope for the future. If Bitcoin caught up by 2040, it would require a massive market change and a global reevaluation of "worth".

Will Bitcoin benefit if that happens? A double-edged sword. Obtaining such a status would demonstrate Bitcoin's robustness and acceptance. It might change Bitcoin's status in the economy from currency to reserve asset. This transition may challenge its original function yet leave a digital legacy.