bitcoin mining without the coinbase block reward

[graphite]

where the code itself keeps the variables re-targetting/updated and not need devs to manually dictate/decide the next adjustment next year

Yeah thats what i was suggesting. Something similar to hash difficulty adjustment so that the block rate remains 1 block every 10 minutes. For example if fees go above some arbitrary threshold then increase block size and if it drops below then decrease block size.

Im actually not sure if increasing or decreasing block size will increase miner payout. Because if block size increases fees will drop and if block size decreases fees go up. I wonder if it would be linear in practice like if block size increases by 2x would transaction fees drop by 2x? or would fees drop even further leading to less payout for miners?

I just checked bchmempool.cash as a comparison for if blocksize were to increase and it looks like the total fees are only 0.08% of the coinbase subsidy and on mempool.space the total fees are 3% of the coinbase subsidy. However most blocks on bitcoin cash aren't filled so if we assume the blocks are full then this should bring the total fees up to 1.5%-2% of the coinbase subsidy. So based on this it looks to be a linear adjustment. Maybe slightly worse payout for miners but hard to tell since its based on bitcoin cash

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[franky1]

before even increasing the blocksize.. we actually clean up the code to decludge the apartheid/segregation* campaign
and actually allow 4mb of true transaction byte counting, by cleaning up the code of the cludge that allowed miscounting and ignoring of bytes of a tx

so now imagine we have 4mb of full utility clean lean tx use, properly accounted and validated and purposeful and all transaction formats having freedom to utilise the full 4mb blockspace equally
*legacy only at the front quarter of the bus, miscounted metadata at the back 3/4 of the block (hope you get the tongue in cheek metaphors)


a lean tx can be less that 250byte, even less than 200byte.. heck there are ways to be under 150byte
but lets go with 250byte average instead of the old 1kb average

thats 16,000 tx instead of 4000tx

we dont need to force users to pay $60 $600 $1600 per tx

because the blockspace between now and the year 2140 shouldnt stay at low 4mb
now run scenarios based on the next 100 years, not of leaping to extremes within months. but progressive growth..
and not having to hinder growth to force fee increases

if 1btc was $2m (spot market only 2x for a few halvings until peaking to $2m/btc and that became stable price(volatility slowed down))
then 1 sat is $0.02
and a 226byte tx is $4.52 at 1sat/byte (legacy = real byte counting and a 2in-2out tx)
(or average tx of 250byte is 250sat=$5/tx)

thats a minimum of $80k at 1sat/byte with 16,000 tx
by moving to say 6mb thats then $120k minimum

emphasis
we dont need to force fee's any time soon.. the blockreward and the spot price deflation can cover miners for many more halvings.

play out 100 years, in a rational scenario
remember hard drives grew from 4gb to 4tb in 20 years
remember internet grew from 0.5mb to 500mb in 20 years
remember spot price deflation will look after miners for many more halvings(decades) so calm down of "fee war" requirement anytime soon

play out 100 years, in a rational scenario

[graphite]

if 1btc was $2m (spot market only 2x for a few halvings until peaking to $2m/btc and that became stable price(volatility slowed down))
then 1 sat is $0.02
and a 226byte tx is $4.52 at 1sat/byte (legacy = real byte counting and a 2in-2out tx)
(or average tx of 250byte is 250sat=$5/tx)

thats a minimum of $80k at 1sat/byte with 16,000 tx
by moving to say 6mb thats then $120k minimum

$2mm bitcoin seems too optimistic. That would mean the market cap of bitcoin would be 42 trillion USD. For reference gold is only 14 trillion.

Even still $80k per a block is still way to cheap to secure the global reserve currency. A country like Russia or China would have no problem taking bitcoin offline for just $11mm a day

emphasis
we dont need to force fee's any time soon.. the blockreward and the spot price deflation can cover miners for many more halvings.

play out 100 years, in a rational scenario
remember hard drives grew from 4gb to 4tb in 20 years
remember internet grew from 0.5mb to 500mb in 20 years
remember spot price deflation will look after miners for many more halvings(decades) so calm down of "fee war" requirement anytime soon

I agree we do have a lot of time. This is just an interesting subject to me.

I don't believe tech will continue at that rate. Because of the laws of physics we are hitting the limits on data storage and internet speed. we cant store data in smaller units than atoms and we cant go faster than the speed of light.

[franky1]

if 1btc was $2m (spot market only 2x for a few halvings until peaking to $2m/btc and that became stable price(volatility slowed down))
then 1 sat is $0.02
and a 226byte tx is $4.52 at 1sat/byte (legacy = real byte counting and a 2in-2out tx)
(or average tx of 250byte is 250sat=$5/tx)

thats a minimum of $80k at 1sat/byte with 16,000 tx
by moving to say 6mb thats then $120k minimum

$2mm bitcoin seems too optimistic.

$2mm is not about now. nor 2140
lets use the $70k ATH of the currently ending market halving cycle (2020-2024)
2024-2028 (low rational 2x) $140k (3.125btc reward * 140k=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2028-2032 (low rational 2x) $280k (1.5625btc reward * 280k=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2032-2036 (low rational 2x) $560k (0.78125btc reward * 560k=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2036-2040 (low rational 2x) $1.02m (0.390625btc reward * 1.02m=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2040-2044 (low rational 2x) $2.04m (0.1953125btc reward * 2.04m=$437.5k fiat block reward)
so $2m in 20 years time(way under the 120 year) is easily rational.. where we can start to suggest that fee's become a bit more important as a bonus
(i am not saying the spot market only needs to 2x.. it can 3x, 4x.. i only used 2 X as a low ball rational easy optimism)
we can speculate on the 3x 4x of spot market futures. and how that affect mining rewards of the next 20 years, let alone the hundred years after that

but you said $2m is too optimistic and i simply responded with rational maths to say it is rational

For reference gold is only 14 trillion. That would mean the market cap of bitcoin would be 42 trillion USD.

for now.. but once project Artemis is gold mining asteroids, bringing back 100tonnes of gold per payload(multiple trips per year), then we will see the gold market grow too, enjoy that thought in the next 20 years

Even still $80k per a block is still way to cheap to secure the global reserve currency. A country like Russia or China would have no problem taking bitcoin offline for just $11mm a day

i am not talking about now's fee total capacity when fee''s are not essential. i suggested using these as base points, to then use as scaling progresses over the years.. for future dates where by you then have to play out the need for fee's not now, not in a decade but in many decades when the block reward declines to give more importance to fee's need
noting, and for emphasis: that not now but in the future more transactions per block will bump up the fee total via number of transactions

so play it out where the transactions per block increase at a rational scaling over years. to the point in the future of many decades

EG if in 20 years where 1btc is $2m and if.. blocks were stuck for 20 years at 16k tx per block even if lean and clean block of 4mb remained.. then yes $80k for 1sat/byte is small..
but thats using the base number assumption of a block stuck at 4mb and just made leaner and cleaner..
now do some scaling assumptions and other rational movements over the years

[graphite]

$2mm is not about now. nor 2140
lets use the $70k ATH of the currently ending market halving cycle (2020-2024)
2024-2028 (low rational 2x) $140k (3.125btc reward * 140k=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2028-2032 (low rational 2x) $280k (1.5625btc reward * 280k=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2032-2036 (low rational 2x) $560k (0.78125btc reward * 560k=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2036-2040 (low rational 2x) $1.02m (0.390625btc reward * 1.02m=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2040-2044 (low rational 2x) $2.04m (0.1953125btc reward * 2.04m=$437.5k fiat block reward)
so $2m in 20 years time(way under the 120 year) is easily rational.. where we can start to suggest that fee's become a bit more important as a bonus

Past market data doesn't prove future market data. Adoption for bitcoin will tapper off. We probably wont see 2x gains every 4 years like we did in the past. Gold has been around for thousands of years and for a new currency to take its place in a matter of 25 years is optimistic in my opinion.

There needs to be time for bitcoin to be adopted and distributed across the population before it can reach the market cap of gold but i do think bitcoin will reach those numbers but maybe in 50 years not 20.

You also have to consider the ratio of total value of the network vs security. Based on your numbers the block reward stays the same but the total value of the network increases making it a larger target with the same security as the network today.

- today:         $1.4 trillion market cap with 63mil a day 51% attack threshold
- 2040-2044: $42  trillion market cap with 63mil a day 51% attack threshold

[franky1]

$2mm is not about now. nor 2140
lets use the $70k ATH of the currently ending market halving cycle (2020-2024)
2024-2028 (low rational 2x) $140k (3.125btc reward * 140k=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2028-2032 (low rational 2x) $280k (1.5625btc reward * 280k=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2032-2036 (low rational 2x) $560k (0.78125btc reward * 560k=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2036-2040 (low rational 2x) $1.02m (0.390625btc reward * 1.02m=$437.5k fiat block reward)
2040-2044 (low rational 2x) $2.04m (0.1953125btc reward * 2.04m=$437.5k fiat block reward)
so $2m in 20 years time(way under the 120 year) is easily rational.. where we can start to suggest that fee's become a bit more important as a bonus

Past market data doesn't prove future market data. Adoption for bitcoin will tapper off. We probably wont see 2x gains every 4 years like we did in the past.

past numbers seen 100x (2011  $0.30 -> $30)
past numbers seen 40x (2011-2013 $30-> $1.2k)
past numbers seen 16x (2013-2017 $1.2k-> $20k)
past numbers seen 3.5x (2017-2021 $20k-> $70k)

we have not yet even got down to 2x yet.. emphasis we are not even tapered down to 2x yet

(ill now repeat myself in different ways just to get the point across)
i was completely LOWBALLING to show how rational $2m is by using numbers we have yet to even reach as lowball numbers

i was low balling(using smal numbers we have yet to experience)
yes it will taper off we wont see 100x again.. and thats why i was low balling
yes we will see low numbers like 3.5x 3x 2.5x . but again i low balled it to show its rationally possible

also spot market price is not the same as "adoption numbers"
even one person spending just $7.00 to buy 0.0001 bitcoin = 1btc $70,000
even one person spending just $7.01 to buy 0.0001 bitcoin = 1btc $70,100
yep one person spending an extra 1 cent can move the spot price by $100 and thats just trades of 2 people where one spends ONE CENT extra
yep one person spending one extra cent can move market cap 1.3776trill -> 1.379568trill an increase of market cap of $1.968billion.. for 1 cent spent

dont assume the spot market needs millions of people paying thousands of dollars to move the spot market

- today:         $1.4 trillion market cap with 63mil a day 51% attack threshold
- 2040-2044: $42  trillion market cap with 63mil a day 51% attack threshold

the market cap is not the same as the amount of sats that are in a tx on the blockchain moved each day
the market cap for instance you show.. has no baring on the amount of sats moved per block

you mention $1.4trill cap.. but thats not what is moved per day in blocks
rationally today
average value moved per tx 0.8912 BTC
transactions per day 453,840
404,462btc value moved per day ($28,030,519,920($28b))

yep $28billion.. not $1.4trill block attack risk

the main reason i am pointing out the many different categories of economics involved in bitcoin, things like:
spot market deflation
reward halving cycles
minimum fee's per tx (instead of max fee of stupidly high $$ amount)
minimum fee's per block as base start points to rationall grow from (instead of max fee of stupidly high $$ amount)

transactions that can be leaner to fit more in 'stuck block size'
transactions that can be cleaner to fit more in 'stuck block size'
rational scaling of blocksize to allow more transactions in scaling blocksize

so you can put all these different things into running a scenario of rational growth (not extremes) to show we dont need to leap in fee's or transaction amounts in months. but instead if you take things rationally over years, decades.. things are not as feared as some stories i think the OP read and feared or does not understand

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dont assume the spot market needs millions of people paying thousands of dollars to move the spot market

Spot market definitely needs millions in volume to move it. The markets have millions on the books within a 1% spread. It would take millions to eat up those orders and move the market only 1%.

yep $28billion.. not $1.4trill block attack risk

If the network is attacked the market cap is at risk not just the value of blocked transactions. If the network was for example blocked for a year or so the price of bitcoin would plummet.

Regardless of the bitcoin price prediction the coinbase will not be suffocate at some point which could lead to security risk. If the block reward stays the same the security of the network will stagnate. People/nation states will be less interested in using bitcoin if a single country could stop it with 1% of its GDP.

[franky1]

dont assume the spot market needs millions of people paying thousands of dollars to move the spot market

Spot market definitely needs millions in volume to move it. The markets have millions on the books within a 1% spread. It would take millions to eat up those orders and move the market only 1%.

the market HAS millions which then needs millions on the other side to move the market(for every buyer there is a seller, for every seller there is a buyer.. thats how markets work). so adoption is already here.. but in the "needs adoption" of graphites scenario, where there was only a few people it only requires a few people to move the market.

people dont need to buy whole units of bitcoin to move a market. people can by a few sats. and counter sell a few sats to move markets up or down with little cost

yep $28billion.. not $1.4trill block attack risk

If the network is attacked the market cap is at risk not just the value of blocked transactions. If the network was for example blocked for a year or so the price of bitcoin would plummet.

the market cap is meaningless.. there is no actual $trillion held anywhere that are at risk
the market cap is just math.. not money.. its just the bitcoin price NUMBER multiplied
and as said previously the bitcoin price is not based on millions of people buying whole bitcoins. smaller amount of people can buy small decimal amounts and move the market cheaply

run some scenarios, learn the economics

a 51% attack does not attack the market cap..  it at worse re-orgs which transactions got confirmed in recent blocks. thus risks the value spend(moved) within said blocks. so its about the btc within transactions of a block. not the market cap
also a malicious pool doing a 51% does not gain ownership of all btc of transactions in a block so its not like the (todays stats) $28bill of value moved today ends up in some pools pockets.. it just means all people of bitcoin that received coin that day see the confirmed tx get undone and funds seen back in the sender.. coins are not destroyed or stolen, transactions are just reversed back to the sender, who can just send them again or the receiver can re broadcast the tx to get them again.. but the pool in the end does not get the coin.. so the profitability of doing an attack is not even as high as the coin daily movements. and definitely not a market cap win

Regardless of the bitcoin price prediction the coinbase will not be suffocate at some point which could lead to security risk. If the block reward stays the same the security of the network will stagnate. People/nation states will be less interested in using bitcoin if a single country could stop it with 1% of its GDP.

and that slowdown of the reward amount is not something to be scared of in 2024.. run some scenarios of how many halvings need to cycle before people stop caring about the reward vs spot. and instead need to think about fees as a more important income stream.. and if you think rationally you will realise its not this year or this market/halving cycle

eventually but not now the reward will be insufficient. hence why you should learn about all the different economics at play to then run scenarios properly and rationally instead of guessing and exaggerating. play out some scenarios over 10, 20,50,100 years

bitcoin does not need expensive fes per tx now nor anytime soon. bitcoin does not need to leap to millions of transactions a second this month either..
learn scaling learn rational economics and play out some scenarios

[graphite]

the market HAS millions which then needs millions on the other side to move the market(for every buyer there is a seller, for every seller there is a buyer.. thats how markets work). so adoption is already here.. but in the "needs adoption" of graphites scenario, where there was only a few people it only requires a few people to move the market.

people dont need to buy whole units of bitcoin to move a market. people can by a few sats. and counter sell a few sats to move markets up or down with little cost

i'm not understanding this logic. If it only takes a few sats to move the market than hedge funds would be able to easily manipulate the market for huge profits.

the market cap is meaningless.. there is no actual $trillion held anywhere that are at risk
the market cap is just math.. not money.. its just the bitcoin price NUMBER multiplied
and as said previously the bitcoin price is not based on millions of people buying whole bitcoins. smaller amount of people can buy small decimal amounts and move the market cheaply

run some scenarios, learn the economics

Marketcap = price*supply but since supply is fixed to 21million market cap is effectively the price of bitcoin. so calling the market cap meaningless is the same as calling the price meaningless.

[franky1]

the market HAS millions which then needs millions on the other side to move the market(for every buyer there is a seller, for every seller there is a buyer.. thats how markets work). so adoption is already here.. but in the "needs adoption" of graphites scenario, where there was only a few people it only requires a few people to move the market.

people dont need to buy whole units of bitcoin to move a market. people can by a few sats. and counter sell a few sats to move markets up or down with little cost

i'm not understanding this logic. If it only takes a few sats to move the market than hedge funds would be able to easily manipulate the market for huge profits.

in 2012 we had people doing orders of 1btc min to 1000 per order line, where a "wall" order was 10,000
now if you look at the market order book the orders are more in decimals where a "wall" order is a few btc

now follow that rational forward a few decades.. and people will be trading in smaller decimals, no one would be trading whole bitcoin per orderline

oh.. and by the way.. hedge funds do manipulate the markets, it happens
heres a quick screenshot of binance whilst writing this
notice the sell side of orders of under $6