2024 Elliott Wave

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thanks for the explanation. I have looked a bit into Elliott waves again and it seems you're correct, the "invalidation" of corrective waves doesn't occur in the same way than in the case of impulse waves.

The volume of the wave since the August low seems to be indeed lower than the last part of the previous bullish wave (late 2023 to March 2024), so that would fit for the rules for corrective waves, and also lower than the downtrend from March to August which could be described as a wave A like you proposed in your chart.

An alternative assumption could be however:

- Wave A: March to late April (73k - 56.5k)
- Wave B: late April to late May or early June (56.5k up to 72.5k)
- Wave C: early June to early August (56.5k down to 49k).

On a whole I think your subdivision follows Elliott wave rules more convincingly. So let's see if we indeed see a deeper dip still. From fundamentals' point of view I doubt it, despite of today's dump.

So it would be interesting what would, for you, be the event invalidating the "irregular B wave" theory, i.e. what josegines already asked. I think if we see prices close to 100k with as much or more volume as in March this should be the case, or not?

A set of five impulsive waves, in an uptrend, would be the first starting point to consider whether the downtrend is over; no need to wait for new all-time highs for such a consideration.

At this point, the waves still appear corrective, and so still expecting a decline to either 37K or 44K, current guesswork as follows...

[d5000]

A set of five impulsive waves, in an uptrend, would be the first starting point to consider whether the downtrend is over; no need to wait for new all-time highs for such a consideration.

Thanks! I see that in your model you consider the "W" at the 53k dump before the 49k dump.

We can of course for now speculate that the development of the price after the 49k dump (your "a" bottom) may be the start of five impulsive waves:

- 1: wave up to 65k after the dump.
- 2: corrective wave down to 52.5k.
- 3: wave up to 67k, possibly extending higher if the 60k dump was only an intermediate correction. That's where we would be now.

So for the 5-wave pattern to form from this base, imo the following conditions would be needed:

- the wave 3 must go a bit higher without falling lower than 52.5k,
- the bottom of wave 4 must be above 65k (because an Elliott Wave 4 should not fall into wave 1 territory).
- and possibly: volume must pick up.

This would be however possibly a quite bearish outlook - it would be a wave 5 (according to my theory, alternatively it can be a wave 3) but it would not be sure if we can surpass the 100k in this cycle. It would be thus more mid-term bullish if your prediction was correct

Alternatively we could be still in wave 1, the important thing would be then to not see the sub-49k area again, but then it would take some time for this pattern to be confirmed.

I'm not an expert on Elliot, but the rise since 6/Sep ($52.5k) looks like an impulse,
and what it's doing since 27/Sep ($66.5k) could be its correction.

Indeed, the 52.5 to 66k movement looks like a structure with five lower-degree waves. Much more than the movement from 49k to 65k which is comprised only from three lower-degree waves.

But how would the 49.5k to 65k movement fit into that picture? An "overshoot" inside the short-term bearish wave 2 (or 4)?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thanks! I see that in your model you consider the "W" at the 53k dump before the 49k dump.

We can of course for now speculate that the development of the price after the 49k dump (your "a" bottom) may be the start of five impulsive waves:

- 1: wave up to 65k after the dump.
- 2: corrective wave down to 52.5k.
- 3: wave up to 67k, possibly extending higher if the 60k dump was only an intermediate correction. That's where we would be now.

So for the 5-wave pattern to form from this base, imo the following conditions would be needed:

- the wave 3 must go a bit higher without falling lower than 52.5k,
- the bottom of wave 4 must be above 65k (because an Elliott Wave 4 should not fall into wave 1 territory).
- and possibly: volume must pick up.

This would be however possibly a quite bearish outlook - it would be a wave 5 (according to my theory, alternatively it can be a wave 3) but it would not be sure if we can surpass the 100k in this cycle. It would be thus more mid-term bullish if your prediction was correct

Alternatively we could be still in wave 1, the important thing would be then to not see the sub-49k area again, but then it would take some time for this pattern to be confirmed.

I'm not an expert on Elliot, but the rise since 6/Sep ($52.5k) looks like an impulse,
and what it's doing since 27/Sep ($66.5k) could be its correction.

Indeed, the 52.5 to 66k movement looks like a structure with five lower-degree waves. Much more than the movement from 49k to 65k which is comprised only from three lower-degree waves.

But how would the 49.5k to 65k movement fit into that picture? An "overshoot" inside the short-term bearish wave 2 (or 4)?

The current uptrend starting from the low of 05-AUG-2024 to present, appears to be corrective waves at the moment.
Hence, guessing the following two scenarios, either of which eventually suggest a decline...

[josegines]

It is clear that we have to wait for levels to be broken to confirm where we are going.

Could the fall from 25/Aug-6/Sep be a wave failure?
Would that be the explanation for the correction ending there, although I don't think I've seen wave failures in your counts.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

It is clear that we have to wait for levels to be broken to confirm where we are going.

Could the fall from 25/Aug-6/Sep be a wave failure?
Would that be the explanation for the correction ending there, although I don't think I've seen wave failures in your counts.

Yes, that is possible, a truncated failed wave.

However, the subsequent uptrend wave after the supposed failed wave is appearing corrective at the moment.

[Tzupy]

As the much hyped bull run seems to fizzle, I am sharing one of my current most probable scenarios, that I would personally hate to happen:

We may be going to reach the bottom of wave 2 only around August 2025, in a Covid like crash. And then a new ATH, of about 300 K$, will come only in 2027.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

As the much hyped bull run seems to fizzle, I am sharing one of my current most probable scenarios, that I would personally hate to happen:

We may be going to reach the bottom of wave 2 only around August 2025, in a Covid like crash. And then a new ATH, of about 300 K$, will come only in 2027.

MAR 2024 to AUG 2025 would be quite a long sideways fluctuation with eventual decline —it would make it one of the longest such sideways price action usually relegated to larger degree waves, hence probably unlikely.

[Kingperry22]

BTC/USD

Wow, I applaud the OP for this technical analysis although one issue I have with EW is it mainly deals with technical but sudden market volatility fundamental news can change it's directions making me to lose counts several times. Identifying and labelling the waves can be confusing at times. Thanks to the OP.

[CookieFactory]

One of the most commonly misunderstood subjects is the interplay between "technicals" and "fundamentals". The mistake is thinking they aren't two sides of the same coin.

[dansus021]

I didnt really understand about elliot wave but I know a guy that made script/indicator on tradingview and he is quite famous and here is the image using that script can you tell me more about it.



here is the link to the chart https://www.tradingview.com/chart/p4CswcCz/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSD

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I didnt really understand about elliot wave but I know a guy that made script/indicator on tradingview and he is quite famous and here is the image using that script can you tell me more about it.

here is the link to the chart https://www.tradingview.com/chart/p4CswcCz/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSD

It appears this Elliott Wave count is also expecting a pullback, before resuming higher.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]