The Monte Carlo fallacy

[dothebeats]

I was a victim of this fallacy before, and I guess when humans are faced with dire events, they will always devise something to help get their minds at ease. The Monte Carlo fallacy is no different to that, as it's just a way of the human brain to 'cope' with unfortunate events giving them a false glimmer of hope that everything will be fine. No wonder people are losing tons of money to gambling; they give in to these instincts and let these overwhelm them over reason and logic.

[1714841579]

1714841579

[1714841579]

1714841579

[coin-investor]

Perhaps the majority of gamblers know this , especially the professionals and old-timers. Personally, I always fall into this trap.

-What is your analysis about this trick?

Not everyone, gamblers who are not doing research and just bet do not know this and may have implemented this one way or the other, but since this is a fallacy and the Cambridge dictionary defines this as

an idea that a lot of people think is true but is false:

it should be avoided gambling is a game of luck, and in-depth analysis if it's a sports betting

The most famous gambling fallacy

The most famous example of the gambler's fallacy occurred at the Casino de Monte-Carlo in Monaco in 1913.

But until now it has persisted because gamblers are looking for probability and to justify a pattern until people believe that it won't work

Resource article :
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

[wxa7115]

I was a victim of this fallacy before, and I guess when humans are faced with dire events, they will always devise something to help get their minds at ease. The Monte Carlo fallacy is no different to that, as it's just a way of the human brain to 'cope' with unfortunate events giving them a false glimmer of hope that everything will be fine. No wonder people are losing tons of money to gambling; they give in to these instincts and let these overwhelm them over reason and logic.

Truth is humans are way less logical and reasonable as they may like to believe, and it is easy to guess why, have you ever sit down to consider every single possibility that may happen due to your actions? And do you do this for every single thing you do? Hardly, if ever.

We simply do not have the time to do this, as often most of the decisions we take have to be taken in a matter of seconds, so we tend to go with our instinct on most situations, and while most of the time this is the right approach, there are instances in which this is a bad idea, and this fallacy is one of those instances.

[Psynthax]

this has always been a common sense for people that truly uses their brain and make some big brain move a person could be racking loss for the 30th time and would still be racking for 60th time and so on even though the chance might seem likely less to happen but remember this monte carlo fallacy at every bet the chance of winning is always depending on the odd, in 50:50 situation where the chance is divided equally there's always chance that the range of number 1 to 10 the number 1 could appear at streak more than 10 times its all about chance as simple as that.
indeed some newbies are getting trapped with this fallacy and thinks that maybe if they losing streak 10 times in a row the 11th time would be them winning and therefore they overly compensating and go all in only to realize that they are wrong that they can be having a loss at some point.

thats the good thing with these psychological play, veteran would definitely figure out that such thing exists.