2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Smartprofit]

I dont want and like to turn into direct politics discussion, but from the moment it was decided to replace Joe Bined with Kamala Harris, I think it was clear that Trump is going to win this race. You cant just promote Biden all the time, and on the finish line replace him. Not an expert in US history, but I dont remember that a woman was ever a president of the US. Again a signal for Trump. I dont know if it is possible to cheat during election, but it is clear for me that it is going to be Trump. However, I am not going to bet on US or any president election. I dont want to "earn" or peoples future. Who know what Trump second presidentship would be. What if his first decree would be a war against everyone, and I have earned with winning bet selecting him. That is not for me.

There hasn't been a woman president in the US, so if Harris wins, it would be historic.

For the same reason I think it's quite difficult that a woman would become president in the US, but also Trump has a lot of people against him.

But also a lot of people support Trump.

It's going to be quite difficult to predict I think.

She is first female vice-president so far. That already a huge achievement. I think such thing might work well. First female vice-president turns first female president. But isnt it enough for a start to be first female vice-president? I like her presidential program - she promises to "improve financial situation of a country" or something like that. So her fellow democratic party creates problems, and she as a democrat promises to fix them Should they start with not creating problem at all?

How often does vice-presidents become presidents in general ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States actually quite often. There is a possibility, that next time Harris would become a president, but this time it is going to be Trump.

In my opinion, Kamala Harris currently has a higher probability of becoming the new US President than Donald Trump.

Donald Trump is already known to Americans. He has certain personal merits, but there are also significant shortcomings. These shortcomings are known to everyone. Even ardent supporters of Donald Trump admit their presence.

At the same time, Kamala Harris has not yet proven herself. Voters are uncertain - it is currently unknown what kind of President Kamala Harris will become. This is intrigue. American citizens do not have experience of a woman - the President of the United States.

People love novelty, they are interested in trying something new in life.
Therefore, the probability that Kamala Harris will be elected President of the United States is very high.

[TwitchySeal]

Anyway, I think you have failed to address my most important points other than attacking me.

It's not my intention to attack you, just your 'ideas'/'alternative facts'.  Let me try to to be more clear.

Democrats and their cronies in the media have stopped making sense completely...

On the one hand, we have Biden saying Israel is holding back on a ceasefire to help Trump.

Biden didn't say that.  

Here's what he said, from the article you linked:

“No administration has helped Israel more than I have – none, none, none,” Mr. Biden said.

“And I think Bibi [Mr. Netanyahu] should remember that, and whether he’s trying to influence the election, I don’t know, but I’m not counting on that.”

See?  That's what Biden said in the article you linked.  He didn't say "Israel is holding back on a ceasefire to help Trump.", he said "whether he’s trying to influence the election, I don’t know, but I’m not counting on that"  

What a load of absolute bullshit from him to say.

It's bullshit to say he said that.  Because he didn't.

If you want Israel to accept a ceasefire stop arming it and sending over billions and billions of dollars.

Cutting off aid until a cease fire was agreed would encourage Hamas to delay a ceasefire for as long as possible, and if one did eventually happen, they would have much more leverage in negotiations.  Israel is an ally, Hamas is an enemy. I'm not saying you're wrong on this one.  There's plenty of valid criticism to be made about how Biden has handled Israel - my only point is that it's not as simple as you are trying to make it seem.

When the whole world already calls you a genocidal lunatic for that, are you seriously ready to blame the perpetrator of a genocide you've been funding over not helping in your partner's re-election campaign?

The whole world doesn't call Biden a genocidal lunatic. Biden didn't blame Netanyahu for not helping Kamalas re-election campaign.  

And then you have articles like the one below, saying Putin and Netanyahu have common goals in trying to get Trump elected.

They do.  A Trump victory would make it easier for Putin and Netanyahu to continue with their respective invasions.

Oh, ok... So every bad guy in the international arena as per the American left is now Trump's friend.

No.  Netanyahu is literally Trumps friend though.  And Trump has made it clear he'd like to be friends with Putin.

“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.' Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine – of Ukraine. Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful.”

“They say, ‘Trump said Putin’s smart.’ I mean, he’s taking over a country for two dollars’ worth of sanctions.  I’d say that’s pretty smart. He’s taking over a country – really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking right in.”

“Putin has big plans for Russia. He wants to edge out its neighbors so that Russia can dominate oil supplies to all of Europe. I respect Putin and Russians but cannot believe our leader (Obama) allows them to get away with so much…Hats off to the Russians.”

As if Trump doesn't have so many issues to deal with domestically, he would need to make friends with Putin and Netanyahu to get elected. wtf even at this point

'Trump needs to make friends with Putin and Netanyahu to get elected' is not the same as 'Putin and Netanyahu would both prefer a Trump victory' or, 'Netanyahu and Putin are both trying to help Trump win'.  

So your assumptions that I am forming my opinions from right wing media are nonsense.

Ok, if it wasn't right wing media, then why did you post:

Democrats and their cronies in the media have stopped making sense completely...

On the one hand, we have Biden saying Israel is holding back on a ceasefire to help Trump.

It was right wing misinformation that you fell for, or you pulled it out of your ass.  Is there another possibility I'm missing?

Anyway, I think you have failed to address my most important points other than attacking me.

Have I succeeded? 

[STT]

CNN making an attempt to call out obvious bs, quite rarely do I see this stated.   Politics does contain alot of nonsense in many speeches, they are often aiming for a narrative of some sort regardless of restraints of reality.

Walz’s false economy claim

Walz said in the Sunday interview that residents of Ohio, a state he visited Saturday, “understand when (Trump) left office, we had more people unemployed, percentage-wise, than the Great Depression.”

Facts First: This is false. The unemployment rate was 6.4% when Trump left office in January 2021, down from a pandemic-era peak of 14.8% in April 2020. Conversely, the unemployment rate was above 20% for years of the Great Depression, which lasted from roughly 1929 to 1939, and it was above 10% for almost the entire 1930s.

Vice President Kamala Harris made a similar but more modest false claim during her debate with Trump in September, saying that “Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the Great Depression.” Even with the significant “since” qualifier, that wasn’t true; the unemployment rate was higher than 6.4% as recently as 2014.

Statistics themselves are often inaccurate in any case, some people just do not register for various reasons.   There is apparently 900k of undocumented migrants for example.  The other obvious note would be for those with multiple jobs, out of nessecity many people work more then one job to pay the bills.  A recession that loses you 2 out of your normal 3 income streams is clearly going to knock the average family sideways in terms of ability to pay their bills.

[Smack That Ace]

It's hilarious watching some people in this forum fully depend on polymarket to assess the presidency election. It's just a tool for reference and anyone with a half-decent brain wouldn't completely depend on it.

FIY, it's actually banned in the USA and is filled with crypto dudes who are mostly republican supporters. The actual result looks like it's evenly split(50:50) between both at the moment based on multiple reference points.

They are like you when you rely on the debate results and declare that Harris is better than Trump and deserves to be president. Or you also rely on polls that show results in Harris' favor and claim that Harris is more popular with voters   .

I agree that polymarket poll results do not represent the final outcome of the election and things could be completely opposite. But do you know why most people prefer to use polymarket than any other site? Even institutions and companies rely on Polymarket polls to make election predictions, not just crypto investors like you say. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform, at least it will give us fairer results than all the other polls manipulated by the 2 parties.

Harris's approval rating sometimes surpasses Trump's and polymarket still shows it, but for some reason her approval rating has dropped sharply in the last 2 days.

[bbc.reporter]

It's hilarious watching some people in this forum fully depend on polymarket to assess the presidency election. It's just a tool for reference and anyone with a half-decent brain wouldn't completely depend on it.

FIY, it's actually banned in the USA and is filled with crypto dudes who are mostly republican supporters. The actual result looks like it's evenly split(50:50) between both at the moment based on multiple reference points.

Agreed and you are very much correct. The ratings on this prediction market should only be considered as a number on who might be leading to have the victory on November. How much in wagers have been created on Polymarket? There might be more than $500 million and if there are millions of stupid money in a market, there will certainly be smart money who will follow heheheh. If much of the stupid money will bet on Trump then this will move Trump's ratings higher and cause a bet on Kamala to be cheaper. This is where the smart money will have their opportunity and bet more on Kamala.

We can be certain that the smart money, these bettors who have more information than much of the other people who are participating in this market, will bet more money on Kamala if the information tells them that she has the advantage to win on November. This will cause the ratings to go back to 52% for Kamala and only 48% on Trump.



Also, there are republican supporters outside of America? I did not know this heheheheheheheheee.

[nullama]

It's hilarious watching some people in this forum fully depend on polymarket to assess the presidency election. It's just a tool for reference and anyone with a half-decent brain wouldn't completely depend on it.

FYI, it's actually banned in the USA and is filled with crypto dudes who are mostly republican supporters. The actual result looks like it's evenly split(50:50) between both at the moment based on multiple reference points.

Yeah, any kind of poll, even this one that has bets on it, is just that, a poll.

It doesn't consider every single person that goes to vote, and also it is done at a different time than the election.

It might give you a rough idea, but given that this election is so close, I don't think you can say one candidate will win based on just this information.

[eisen33]

In my opinion, Kamala Harris currently has a higher probability of becoming the new US President than Donald Trump.

Donald Trump is already known to Americans. He has certain personal merits, but there are also significant shortcomings. These shortcomings are known to everyone. Even ardent supporters of Donald Trump admit their presence.

At the same time, Kamala Harris has not yet proven herself. Voters are uncertain - it is currently unknown what kind of President Kamala Harris will become. This is intrigue. American citizens do not have experience of a woman - the President of the United States.

People love novelty, they are interested in trying something new in life.
Therefore, the probability that Kamala Harris will be elected President of the United States is very high.

On the one hand, I agree with you that people tend to expect different results from a new candidate, but more often people tend to choose what they know better and they know what to expect from Trump.

In my opinion, maybe he is not the best president who has ever been, but he made payments to people during the Covid times and I think this was well remembered. This does not mean that he will pay again, it is rather a sign that he will take care of the population. In my observations, Trump is closer to victory, but this is only what I see on my screen, and what is actually happening across the ocean is difficult for me to understand. I also see a lot of talk that Trump will be the best choice for Bitcoin, so in this regard, I am also inclined to his victory.

[satscraper]

 Michael Moore who has nicely predicted  the result of previous election envisages that it is for Kamala to win  this time and  new era for America is coming  with her presidency. Her agenda should be as simple as that: 

I like all points in it. As it is stated in the below picture "Kamala Harris is 4 people" and it is true. She has proved this by her life position.

[Sithara007]

Also, there are republican supporters outside of America? I did not know this heheheheheheheheee.

Republicans and Democrats as such doesn't have too many supporters outside the US. That said, both Trump and Kamala are having a sizable fan following in countries such as India. Here in India, the Hindu rightwing are ardent supporters of Trump. And Trump even organized a campaign event with Narendra Modi in the US back in 2020, only a few weeks before the POTUS elections. Similarly, the left-wing has thrown their support behind Kamala. Anyway, such fanbase hardly matters on the outcome of the 2024 elections.

[stompix]

~

Let's stop using so many words as it seems like you want to twist everything so despite claiming for three pages 1+2=4 you then claim it as victory when someone says it's 2^2 that's making 4.

So, about both the Trump support for Isreal which you denied, and the people of US not interested in the war, simple examples:

and about the war effort:

But yeah, Trump is definitely not favored by Isreal to win, Israeli people are defienlty not interested in seeing Trump elected, and most of all we all did the biggest blunder of our life in NOT making peace with Hitler and defending the UK! We prolonged the war instead of living peacefully with a genocidal maniac just like we do now with Putin!

[OgNasty]

It seems like the market has started taking a dose of reality. Kamala is no longer the favorite and she never should have been. I’m glad I got my high odds bets placed when I did and am keeping my fingers crossed that this election isn’t filled with fraud and manipulation like in 2020. I’m trying to eat at Sizzler next month.

[Kemarit]

It seems like the market has started taking a dose of reality. Kamala is no longer the favorite and she never should have been. I’m glad I got my high odds bets placed when I did and am keeping my fingers crossed that this election isn’t filled with fraud and manipulation like in 2020. I’m trying to eat at Sizzler next month.

It used to be even at 50/50, but you are right, now it's Trump that is the favorite and Kamala slid, maybe Trump's supporter made a swing and then bet on him to win. However, it is still very early to conclude we still have weeks.

Anyhow, I do hope that there is no intervention from foreign country to at least influence the result just like in 2020 as you have said. Maybe in the side of Kamala Harris, once they see that she is the underdog again, they might do something differently to change the tide on their favor. On Trump's side, maybe continue what he had done, make controversial statements that will favor a lot of Americans.

[bitgolden]

I was little surprised about the fact that trump led for a while, considering the fact that all of his promises are so transparent lies. Just listing his crimes and crimes he is credibly accused of, would make me seem like i am trying start a flame war, as they are so horrid. And imagine him dying of old age after becoming president. Who would want his running mate anywhere near to real power? Because i haven't seen even most loyal magahats praising him. His popularity seems to be in the dumpster:

Trump seems to be getting the momentum, after the assassination attempt and Kamala being declared, and DNC, for a while Kamala was leading, and the polls started to show her leading, plus the debate didn't go well for Trump neither, it wasn't something he shines at anyways, so all of these combined made Kamala, unlikely winner, somehow manage to get ahead on the polls and even at polymarket which leans on Trump side a bit because of the whole crypto thing.

However, this was also because Trump wasn't doing all those big major rally stuff, he did a few smaller stuff but these "call up Elon for the rally" type of stuff isn't really something he did, now he is putting it to another gear, which shows on both the odds and the polls as well.

Let's see if he can keep the momentum going, or will Kamala do something to take the light again. If Trump goes on, then he will surely win, which was what expected at the start before everything, but if he can't and Kamala does something to get the attention, then she has a chance.

[Blowon]

it seems trump is taking the attention so fast compared to kumala, and i am sure trump will win it, trump will be the favorite right now, but everything can change drastically but still trump is my favorite

[bbc.reporter]

I had a question on the ratings in Polymarket, however, I did not get an answer on this and it appears that this only caused annoyance and some anger hehehehe. In any case, I asked if Trump's ratings on Polymarket will be more than 55% on November 1. It was only 50.8% on the day I asked this. This was on October 7. However presently, it is beginning to increase and this is on 52.8% at present.

Also, I have another question. Is the cause of this increase because of smart money inflows or stupid money from republican supporters?

[OgNasty]

I’m glad to see that Donald Trump is starting to pull away from Kamala Harris on the gambling prediction sites. I’ll admit I was a bit nervous there for a second when everything had Trump as the underdog. It’s pretty obvious who the right candidate is for this period in time though. America needs Trump and so does my bank roll.

[satscraper]

Harris still ahead of that old fart Trump who wants to fire out all sencible Americans  and put on their places the   bastards similar to him. She is steadily building her momentum across all walk of America's life and what I like most is that the  young generations support her visions for future  rather then Trump's ones. I have put my bet on Harris win.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

it seems trump is taking the attention so fast compared to kumala, and i am sure trump will win it, trump will be the favorite right now, but everything can change drastically but still trump is my favorite

I wouldn't get too excited about the polls if you're a Trump fan. Believing that Trump is going to win with a lead may cause a few of his voters to stay home on election day and that can be key in swing states. Besides, with one month left, anything can happen. If they were evenly matched not long ago and it seems that Trump is now ahead, the tables can also be turned.

This shows for me that there is still a lot of game left.

[nullama]

I’m glad to see that Donald Trump is starting to pull away from Kamala Harris on the gambling prediction sites. I’ll admit I was a bit nervous there for a second when everything had Trump as the underdog. It’s pretty obvious who the right candidate is for this period in time though. America needs Trump and so does my bank roll.

I think it is still a bit 50/50 from what I've seen.

It really depends on the source of the polls, many of them support one or the other candidate.

Not sure what will happen in the election, but I'm pretty sure it will be massive, and a very close race.

Maybe even some random event that will change the whole thing, yet again.

[MK-74]

Donald Trump would be better for us as crypto people.
Trump is leading in the polls but I don't know how healthy it is to fully trust the polls.
There is very little time left until November 5th, November 5th is a critical day for crypto, let's see who will be the new president of America.