2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Silberman]

...

   Its going to be an unfortunate election all round if looks and appearance rather then policy and consistency is what counts with voters.   Its possible we are talking skin deep judgement, thats a fair take from the mass of a population its just a very average view that comes out.   My guess at 50/50 odds is either party can take it, people have to actually turn out to vote not just have an opinion.

  I would never wait around 3 hours to cast a vote, if thats how it works some places the system is broken.   Not everyone can afford that amount of free time wasted for starters so that would create a wealth bias.   My point being there is multiple influences on the outcome it wont be straightforward imo.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/us-states-where-employers-have-to-give-you-paid-time-off-to-vote.html

Unfortunately elections have always included an element of appearance and showmanship, and we know this is true as this has been the case even on Athens where democracy was born, also the attempt at Trump’s life will give him a huge advantage over Biden when converting opinion into people that actually vote, as more than ever his followers are determined to follow his cause, so I am sure many of them are willing to wait for as long as necessary in order to cast their vote, while in the case of the Biden we are not even sure if he is going to remain the candidate.

[wheelz1200]

...

   Its going to be an unfortunate election all round if looks and appearance rather then policy and consistency is what counts with voters.   Its possible we are talking skin deep judgement, thats a fair take from the mass of a population its just a very average view that comes out.   My guess at 50/50 odds is either party can take it, people have to actually turn out to vote not just have an opinion.

  I would never wait around 3 hours to cast a vote, if thats how it works some places the system is broken.   Not everyone can afford that amount of free time wasted for starters so that would create a wealth bias.   My point being there is multiple influences on the outcome it wont be straightforward imo.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/us-states-where-employers-have-to-give-you-paid-time-off-to-vote.html

Unfortunately elections have always included an element of appearance and showmanship, and we know this is true as this has been the case even on Athens where democracy was born, also the attempt at Trump’s life will give him a huge advantage over Biden when converting opinion into people that actually vote, as more than ever his followers are determined to follow his cause, so I am sure many of hem are willing to wait for as long as necessary in order to cast their vote, while in the case of the Biden we are not even sure if he is going to remain the candidate.

No way he ends up being on the ticket.  I know they said he is sick right now but convenient that he is unavailable while Trump is going through this period.  Dems got to be making their next choice on path forward.  With the momentum trump has they know they need to do something.  Right now a bet on the Republicans side isn't a bad bet

[alani123]

Clinton did win the popular vote, I totally acknowledge that and its partly why I still assume the current administration would win in 2024.   The electoral college requires multiple state wins away from the coast even if you dont get the most votes total

Biden is being judged at face value, I dont believe he has lost his faculties to govern well enough or better then Trump or anyone else.  He does need to watch his words when speaking though as its often a mixup and looks bad.

   Its going to be an unfortunate election all round if looks and appearance rather then policy and consistency is what counts with voters.   Its possible we are talking skin deep judgement, thats a fair take from the mass of a population its just a very average view that comes out.   My guess at 50/50 odds is either party can take it, people have to actually turn out to vote not just have an opinion.

  I would never wait around 3 hours to cast a vote, if thats how it works some places the system is broken.   Not everyone can afford that amount of free time wasted for starters so that would create a wealth bias.   My point being there is multiple influences on the outcome it wont be straightforward imo.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/us-states-where-employers-have-to-give-you-paid-time-off-to-vote.html

It's absolutely crazy how many states don't even have legislation to protect the right to vote with at least some unpaid time off to cast a vote. Now in the summer certain fields where working class people spend much of their day are especially busy and this will act as a very big vote suppression mechanism.

Of course this is one of the many issues the US has never cared to address really. Biden came in promising big changes like ending the death penalty and ending student loans. Especially for the death penalty he did nothing and for student loans his efforts were quite sub par.

And having to chose between such options as Trump and Biden I am sure many people will be very disinterested and indifferent from voting. If I could bet on voter abstention rates I'd surely bet on it being higher than last time.

[mindrust]

Unfortunately elections have always included an element of appearance and showmanship, and we know this is true as this has been the case even on Athens where democracy was born, also the attempt at Trump’s life will give him a huge advantage over Biden when converting opinion into people that actually vote, as more than ever his followers are determined to follow his cause, so I am sure many of hem are willing to wait for as long as necessary in order to cast their vote, while in the case of the Biden we are not even sure if he is going to remain the candidate.

That's because democracy and elections are all about populism. Trump is hugely popular among people and it is because he knows how to attract people's attention. Not just Trump, every politician promises prosperity, wealth, higher wages, better social security, better education, better security... That has been the game since the Roman Republic...

[alani123]

Reading articles like this makes me laugh:
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-cnn-reporting-women/

Democrats are now complaining that media aren't giving more visibility to Trump's conviction. Makes me wonder, didn't the Biden administration think for one second that their plan could backfire?
Judge shopping and throwing the book at the ex president just to give him as many convictions as possible made the Biden administration look so bad that now nobody pays attention to the justice system when it comes to Trump. The man now literally has so many convictions that he makes it part of his official campaign, saying he's the first black president...

I'm not even jocking, look at this corny video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh0dt7Kcbx0

These people that made this video are given first row seats to every Trump event and their videos have been streamed at the RNC where Trump was nominated by the Republica party. It's as official as it gets. Sounds racist? They don't care. Trump was made out to be a revolutionary. The media realized that he has a real shot for a second term now and of course they aren't going to automatically take sides by supporting the democrats 100%. Like, what did they expect? Free and eternal support from the media? It ain't happening. Their talking points are so ridiculous now even the media ain't buying it.

[dzungmobile]

Reading articles like this makes me laugh:
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-cnn-reporting-women/

Democrats are now complaining that media aren't giving more visibility to Trump's conviction. Makes me wonder, didn't the Biden administration think for one second that their plan could backfire?
Judge shopping and throwing the book at the ex president just to give him as many convictions as possible made the Biden administration look so bad that now nobody pays attention to the justice system when it comes to Trump. The man now literally has so many convictions that he makes it part of his official campaign, saying he's the first black president...

They want to bring their circus around. I agree that Trump did not do all things right but such convictions are purely combined personal attacks with intention to knock Trump down before the President Election. So far, they failed and with only some months left, I won't believe they will succeed to knock Trump down.

Biden must look at himself and be realistic with his health, physically, mentally and intelligently then make right decisions for himself, his party and the whole country. The Democrats party try to attack Trump but I see the same like you, they maybe will see backfires from their initiatives. Abusing it won't help the Democrats party to win in this President Election especially swing voters will have more reasons to swing towards Republic party and Trump.

[Sithara007]

They want to bring their circus around. I agree that Trump did not do all things right but such convictions are purely combined personal attacks with intention to knock Trump down before the President Election. So far, they failed and with only some months left, I won't believe they will succeed to knock Trump down.

Biden must look at himself and be realistic with his health, physically, mentally and intelligently then make right decisions for himself, his party and the whole country. The Democrats party try to attack Trump but I see the same like you, they maybe will see backfires from their initiatives. Abusing it won't help the Democrats party to win in this President Election especially swing voters will have more reasons to swing towards Republic party and Trump.

Around 3.5 months remain for the POTUS elections. And till now we don't know who is going to be the Democrat candidate. It is almost certain that Joe Biden will drop out of the race. But then, who will replace him? Alex Jones of Infowars (who was recently reinstated in Twitter) came up with a ridiculous story that Hillary Clinton is going to replace Joe Biden as the Democrat nominee. Others are rooting for Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. Others in the fray are Michelle Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg.

[stompix]

Whoever took a bet on Biden you're not going to like what the bookies think right now:

Told ya
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/21/biden-to-drop-out-of-2024-presidential-race.html

As for the future nominee, not that much of a surpise


I wonder how much the bookies made out of this since for sure not all of them if any will return the bets.

[uneng]

Unfortunately elections have always included an element of appearance and showmanship, and we know this is true as this has been the case even on Athens where democracy was born, also the attempt at Trump’s life will give him a huge advantage over Biden when converting opinion into people that actually vote, as more than ever his followers are determined to follow his cause, so I am sure many of them are willing to wait for as long as necessary in order to cast their vote, while in the case of the Biden we are not even sure if he is going to remain the candidate.

Biden is officially out. Democrats took a long time to reach the inevitable decision. If Biden doesn't fit the candidate role, how could he still fit the role of president for the following months yet, until next year? At the current point, doesn't matter what Democrats decide doing, there will be heavy critics against them. Trump is only getting stronger, while Democrats stumble on their own feet. Probably the only one who could have a chance to defeat Trump on this election would be Obama, if he could be the candidate.

[wheelz1200]

And there it is biden us out.  Wonder how the books deal with this.  Do the bets on Joe get returned since he is official a "dnp"?  Dems know they are weak right now I can't see trump not winning now.  There is only a couple months to go, no clue how they get momentum in swing states.

[alani123]

Biden dropped out of the race and immediately endorsed Harris... This says a lot about how undemocratic presidential nominations by the two big parties in the US are.
When they had gone through the entire process of primaries to select a candidate, now the presidential ticket for their party is going to be represented by someone no one voted for?

Probably the same would have been done with Republicans if he had dropped out so don't get me wrong. But really I think in this occasion Biden dropping out and endorsing a candidate instead of calling for renowned primaries or a democratic process... Makes democrats look bad and likely will further avert votes from  them. On the bright side the "old man" counter argument against the democratic ticket is gone. But also so are everybody's bets that put money on Biden. My condolences 

[Captain Corporate]

Weeeelll, that was a bit obvious lol Now the question is, who are we getting as the nominee? I guess Kamala Harris has the biggest hype out of them all, not saying she will be but looks like Biden endorsed her and seems like it would be the smart money. I would guess at this late stage of the show, there is absolutely no way that she can win it, to be fair I do not see anyone can win  it, we can just bag it for Trump at this point. Which isn't really that good, because we are going to see the whole Project 2025 creeps coming out of the shadows now that they know they got it, and that's going to be scary for Americans. Betting odds will not become terrible, Trump to win could be as low as 1.40 or lower at this point.

[karabiber]

Trump had the wind at his back after the recent events and was ahead in the polls. But in my opinion, there was a shocking development and Biden announced that he is withdrawing from the presidential race and will support Kamala Harris. I don't think Harris has a chance in the Trump - Harris contest. America has real problems and none of them matter to Harris. If America wants to achieve the MAGA ideal, it will elect Trump. Even if the odds change, I think Trump is still far ahead in this race.

[tread93]

Trump had the wind at his back after the recent events and was ahead in the polls. But in my opinion, there was a shocking development and Biden announced that he is withdrawing from the presidential race and will support Kamala Harris. I don't think Harris has a chance in the Trump - Harris contest. America has real problems and none of them matter to Harris. If America wants to achieve the MAGA ideal, it will elect Trump. Even if the odds change, I think Trump is still far ahead in this race.

So there’s this tweet from John Mcafees twitter page about some time traveler from Russia who can back and said that Joe Biden would be declared unfit for office and that the Democratic Party would install someone, and everyone said Big Mike in the comments lol. Harris ain’t got a shot man she’s like the sorority girl who hasn’t got a clue and just laughs and smiles and is a complete idiot. They are gonna unleash Michelle Obama

[nelson4lov]

And there it is biden us out.  Wonder how the books deal with this.  Do the bets on Joe get returned since he is official a "dnp"?  Dems know they are weak right now I can't see trump not winning now.  There is only a couple months to go, no clue how they get momentum in swing states.

Most likely, they would settle it asap since Biden has "officially" confirmed that he is out of the race. Only in extreme cases we're going to see bookies wait till the election is over in order to settle the bets.

Safe to say that Trump has officially won the election. Biden was his biggest opponent and he has just pulled out of the race.

~Snipped
They are gonna unleash Michelle Obama

Even though Michelle is "unleashed", there's no way she's going to generate enough traction like Biden would've done. That's a big blow to Democrats and a little too late to start pooling resources for a new party candidate.

[passwordnow]

Safe to say that Trump has officially won the election. Biden was his biggest opponent and he has just pulled out of the race.

I want to say that until it's official but it's true that Trump is about to win the race and even Biden endorses Kamala Harris, I don't think that she's gonna win against Trump.

And there it is biden us out.  Wonder how the books deal with this.  Do the bets on Joe get returned since he is official a "dnp"?  Dems know they are weak right now I can't see trump not winning now.  There is only a couple months to go, no clue how they get momentum in swing states.

Since the election hasn't happened yet, I think that those bets on Joe will be returned and that's a good riddance for those that have believed on him and bet on him especially the huge amounts.

Around 3.5 months remain for the POTUS elections. And till now we don't know who is going to be the Democrat candidate. It is almost certain that Joe Biden will drop out of the race. But then, who will replace him? Alex Jones of Infowars (who was recently reinstated in Twitter) came up with a ridiculous story that Hillary Clinton is going to replace Joe Biden as the Democrat nominee. Others are rooting for Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. Others in the fray are Michelle Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg.

And Joe Biden just did, as for Michelle Obama, she's not in the eye. She's not charismatic.

[SUPERSAIAN]

Trump had the wind at his back after the recent events and was ahead in the polls. But in my opinion, there was a shocking development and Biden announced that he is withdrawing from the presidential race and will support Kamala Harris. I don't think Harris has a chance in the Trump - Harris contest. America has real problems and none of them matter to Harris. If America wants to achieve the MAGA ideal, it will elect Trump. Even if the odds change, I think Trump is still far ahead in this race.

This change will definitely increase the votes of the democrats. After all, wasn't this what that group wanted? The change of the presidential candidate was and it was expected. I think it would make a small difference, but it doesn't seem like Harris will win.

The majority support Trump in the USA, as it is known that the deteriorating economy is one of the biggest reasons. If there are no surprises, Trump will be president. What I wonder is what Trump will be able to do and what he will not be able to do when he becomes president.

[STT]

They return money on a Biden bet ?   really, I figured a withdrawal, poor health, death any reason is a lost bet.  Or maybe specific terms is going to protect people because it happened early not after the official nomination like Trump just got.

I honestly favor Rep to win this election at this point, I dont think they should have forced Biden out despite appearances.  My other thought is Biden has covid and is seriously in bad health hence he changed his mind on continuing.   The recent iterations of covid are not as serious as 2020 but I presume due to old age its a possible scenario.

Im not against Kamala btw, Im not for or against any of the candidates especially thats not how bets are won.  My very blunt judgement goes with just how well known they are, years in the job, momentum.  Something as 'simple' as writing a book probably puts Vance ahead for example as we saw in '08 with Obama

[AmoreJaz]

They return money on a Biden bet ?   really, I figured a withdrawal, poor health, death any reason is a lost bet.  Or maybe specific terms is going to protect people because it happened early not after the official nomination like Trump just got.

I honestly favor Rep to win this election at this point, I dont think they should have forced Biden out despite appearances.  My other thought is Biden has covid and is seriously in bad health hence he changed his mind on continuing.   The recent iterations of covid are not as serious as 2020 but I presume due to old age its a possible scenario.

Im not against Kamala btw, Im not for or against any of the candidates especially thats not how bets are won.  My very blunt judgement goes with just how well known they are, years in the job, momentum.  Something as 'simple' as writing a book probably puts Vance ahead for example as we saw in '08 with Obama

Though he contracted Covid, but I don't think that's the strong reason why he is getting out of this presidential race. It is more on his competency to hold the office. And it is how he will perform as a high-ranking official in the eyes of public. Just like how he did in the Presidential debate. Time to retire and enjoy the remaining days of his life. No need to stress himself with this big responsibility.

He already announced his withdrawal from this campaign, so the bookies should really return the money on Biden's bet.

Source: How Joe Biden's Family Reacted to Him Dropping Out

[Sandra_hakeem]

That's because democracy and elections are all about populism. Trump is hugely popular among people and it is because he knows how to attract people's attention. Not just Trump, every politician promises prosperity, wealth, higher wages, better social security, better education, better security... That has been the game since the Roman Republic...

Sometimes, a mishap could turn out to be a blessing in ten folds for anyone at all.... Trump was shot few days ago and that has increased his popularity and the whole US-based attention is focused on him. I don't think it was the case prior to the incident; for the fact that they plotted a coup to eliminate him and it was unsuccessful should teach everyone a lesson and prove to them that there's a high chance of having him taking over the position again..

And there it is biden us out.  Wonder how the books deal with this.  Do the bets on Joe get returned since he is official a "dnp"?  Dems know they are weak right now I can't see trump not winning now.  There is only a couple months to go, no clue how they get momentum in swing states.

Joe isn't gonna return and that's it... Why does it feel like he's pulling out because he doesn't wanna be labeled an allegation over the uninvestigated crime? Why?.. I mean, am I just being too paranoid or something??