I remember in 2020 we were speculating about the same thing in the Spanish subforum about the US election. It was a bullish time, and BTC was beginning to prepare to attack the new ATH, at prices between 10 and 15k.
The election day there was some significant volatility. First it looked like the market was going down because of Biden's advantage (meaning that the Bitcoin traders could have favoured Trump), but then the price recovered (see
my post back then). In the end my conclusion was that what the market probably wanted was
certainty, not necessarily the victory of one of both candidates. The market would have gone down if the result was very close, above all because of Trump's threats to not accept the result, but Biden had a stable (while not large) advantage in most swing states.
The next US elections could lead to a similar pattern. If there is a clear victory of one of both candidates without "strange things" happening (like Trump winning with extreme, violent populism, e.g. threatening to weaken democratic institutions) then this could be positive for the Bitcoin price. Instead if there's a toss-up, mainly in the case of a small Biden advantage Trump isn't accepting, the price could dip.
In general however I think other developments will be more important. While I believe the US is an important market (especially due to the recent ETF developments), and US decisions and events (SEC etc.) see a high grade of coverage in the crypto media business, US citizens are only a relatively small minority of Bitcoin owners. Of course there can be a chain reaction (election win for one side favoured by markets -> stock market bubble -> Bitcoin bubble) but in general other adoption-related events will be more important.
