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Author Topic: What's your take?  (Read 814 times)
alani123
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March 23, 2024, 11:50:29 PM
 #61

Well let's be realistic, calculating the odds to come true on predicting multiple football matches correctly, you run at the risk of having impossible odds if you want to achieve a high multiplier.

The math goes like this:
0.33 (1/3 chance of loss, tie, win) for your prediction, and then to the power of how many matches you combine. 0.33^5 for 5 matches is 0.00391... that would be ~0.4% chance to come true. Add two more matches for 0.33^7 and suddenly the chances become 0.04% to come true. It gets worse the more you add. Now go on your favorite bookie and attempt to add 5 or 7 matches in a bet slip. What is the multiplier? You'll notice that it's ridiculously high, but still with win chances of 0.04% you could win more by playing dice.

So unless you have very good insight of certain outcomes, this type of betting isn't particularly advantageous. Yes, it's fun and you can do it with very low stakes, but let's not fool ourselves. It's like a lottery ticket, not a strategy based on evidence when you combine so many matches.

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March 23, 2024, 11:58:46 PM
 #62

That is betting, the surrounding factors bring betting odds and we will choose it.

I also regularly bet on sports, although I am not a person who plays with large amounts of money, but I accept the emotions of the outcome whether it is according to my wishes or not?

And like many other things present in the game's rules, it forces players to accept the rules in order to continue operating.









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March 24, 2024, 01:00:28 AM
 #63

So I'm a US citizen and don't watch much EU football ( though I like champions league) so my experience comes form the other football here in the US.  I don't bet based on odds what so ever.  I bet based on my feelings of how the game will go in my mind versus whatever the spreads are.  I mean I know that's odds, but I don't base how much I bet on the odds, but rather how confident I am in my side of the bet. Regardless of payout.  I've been betting US football for maybe 10 years or so now, and I have yet to come out of a season being in the red.  So, it works for me.  Though I don't bet crazy amounts or anything.

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March 24, 2024, 01:01:12 AM
 #64

~
I usually put odds on the lower end of the scale when determining which team I want to bet. Heck, I usually make a decision prior to even looking at the odds on a bookmaker really. It might change my decision if the odds were THAT different from what I expected but other than those extreme cases, I usually just go for whichever team I really like and/or feel that would win.

When deciding based on odds though, I think a lot of others would probably prefer the team with the higher winning chances, aka the one with the lower odds. Still up to the person really depending on how well they know the team. Who knows, a team may have high odds but that person just has that belief that they'd do well because they have X player or Y player returned after a long break or something.

R


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March 24, 2024, 01:15:16 AM
 #65

My topic is based on those who are majorly into sports betting, we know in this aspect of gambling it is very risky to predict the outcome of any game from both teams to score, over and under, straight win and many more. Most times we bet on the big teams to win and the reverse becomes the result, either the small teams securing the win or ending in a draw.

Straight to the point most people are afraid of compiling big odds and now decide to go for lower odds with huge staking power which is not even guaranteed to give the predicted results. For example, there could be a match between Newcastle VS Tottenham Hotspur and both teams are having 1.5 and 1.3 odds respectively, a gambler may decide to bet only on Tottenham to straight win by only selecting this one game on his slip, what is your take on this kind of gambling, risking bigger money on some low odds with a small potential win and still the possibility of your pick to win is not even certain.

It depends on the statistics team, if a team like Newcastle has a good statistic previously, of course I will bet that team at the moment even if the odds are very low for them. Playing bets is also based on instinct, I ever bet the team has low bet on world cup, and got a big won, because my instinct at the time felt that the club will dominate the match and win. Normally, we will choose a strong team with have the winning tradition, but it doesn't always have to be like that, we can bet according to our conscience at that time.

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March 24, 2024, 01:34:33 AM
 #66

If you're familiar with the sport, their players, their games, their tendencies, and so on and so forth, I guess the odds would only come second. Your analysis comes first. At least this is how I do it. Although there are times when you have to rethink your analysis over again because the odds are surprisingly too far from it, it may still happen that you'd stick to your analysis in the end.

Having said this, whether the odds are high or low, for as long as you're more or less convinced that your pick has a big chance then you bet for it. However, you also have to strike some balance because there are times when the odds aren't worth risking.

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March 24, 2024, 02:45:20 AM
 #67

If you're familiar with the sport, their players, their games, their tendencies, and so on and so forth, I guess the odds would only come second. Your analysis comes first. At least this is how I do it. Although there are times when you have to rethink your analysis over again because the odds are surprisingly too far from it, it may still happen that you'd stick to your analysis in the end.

Having said this, whether the odds are high or low, for as long as you're more or less convinced that your pick has a big chance then you bet for it. However, you also have to strike some balance because there are times when the odds aren't worth risking.
Strive for important results, I'm talking about good odds, there's more to handle on my watch and I don't think I would be needing any aides from anyone from you. I'm convinced that most girls are just present to beg them with the slightest opportunity they have in the system. It's understandable but they should atleast try to cover up their tracks. We have strategies and it's not polite to expose them to another person because it's exactly the techniques we're using to eat good food.



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March 24, 2024, 03:19:05 AM
 #68

Straight to the point most people are afraid of compiling big odds and now decide to go for lower odds with huge staking power which is not even guaranteed to give the predicted results. For example, there could be a match between Newcastle VS Tottenham Hotspur and both teams are having 1.5 and 1.3 odds respectively, a gambler may decide to bet only on Tottenham to straight win by only selecting this one game on his slip, what is your take on this kind of gambling, risking bigger money on some low odds with a small potential win and still the possibility of your pick to win is not even certain.
The betting odds have been reasonably calculated by the bookmaker to offer accordingly. If you choose a stronger team, you will have to choose a handicap bet, and with a low handicap bet, the amount of money you will receive will also be lower. The important thing is that your choice is based on the current performance of the two teams. If you completely believe that your team will win overwhelmingly, you can choose a high handicap to receive the maximum amount of winnings. On the contrary, we should choose low handicap bets to limit the probability of losing. How I choose the odds is usually analyzed separately for each match.
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March 24, 2024, 03:28:12 AM
 #69

It gets riskier when you put it in a parlay but with singles, 1.30 seems decent to make a winning result.
Well, you are talking about football so it's really hard to predict it because of the "draw" option. Instead of a 50/50 chance, you only get 33.33 percent because a lot of times a draw can happen to the game.
There are good analyzers of the game but yes, it's not like they are 99 percent accurate. They are just there to increase your probability of winning the game by using statistics and history.
But if you are not happy with that kind of odds then you could always switch to a new sport without the "draw" being a wall to those probabilities. There are a lot of sports out there and there's definitely a lot of games without that options.
This is why I don't bet on football, I don't like that 3rd option out there and it happens a lot of times. You are right, even the over and under are difficult to predict but I see gamblers who are more focused on that kind of selection.

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March 25, 2024, 01:45:48 AM
 #70

I've seen this happen before. One guy bet $1m dollars on a 1.1 odds game and ended up losing that bet. It should have been a quick buck but unfortunately, it didn't go his way. If you will be betting straights with a huge budget, better make sure that your pick is bulletproof and you have analyzed everything in the match. If that's not the case, bet low to medium on some other lines within the game like total scores on X time, total fouls etc, you get the point. At least with this way you'll only be losing less should the outcome do not fsvor you.
This is something very common and that must be checked in every sense, personally I am seeing that things can be very different when in a sports bet, in this case like soccer, you can see many possibilities, if I see that my team is and that their main players are injured, I would not bet on that team, not even on my favorite, because I know that for good results the team must be well combined with its stars, but when the stars are replaced by the bench players , they may be good, but they don't play or have the determination of the main team, when that is the case, I don't bet that much on anything, much less an amount like that that I have never seen in my life, those who do something like that, I would say They are compulsive gamblers, and they usually have a life full of emotions, but more due to mistakes, it is something that can try to lead to addiction.

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March 25, 2024, 02:15:05 AM
 #71

No odd is that 100% sure to give you that win you're looking for and I don't see that smaller odd as a good idea when making selections, you can have like 5 smaller odd and you end up having a total of 2 odd or even less, I prefer to go with the risk to get a win and if I'm to accumulate smaller odd then I'd have it in mind that I'm going to stake high.
Betting or gambling is very hard to win but I'd better go for 5 odd with only 4 selections then stake higher rather than having more than 5 games and take low to win something big. To me the main reason why some gamblers don't win is because of greed, gamblers should try to not be greedy in selecting games.

R


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March 25, 2024, 03:23:25 AM
 #72

Betting or gambling is very hard to win but I'd better go for 5 odd with only 4 selections then stake higher rather than having more than 5 games and take low to win something big. To me the main reason why some gamblers don't win is because of greed, gamblers should try to not be greedy in selecting games.

Not a bad idea. Sometimes, It is better to have consistent small gains than always risking your money on an underdog. Most of the time, favorite teams always end up winning. So, If someone is regularly betting on underdogs with money line, they'd for sure having more losses than wins.
Therefore, it is really important to analyze the game, look for the new around the league for possible changes in rotation due to players who are not able to play, usually because of the injuries. Stuff like these can make a huge impact to the odds. Though it could also be noticeable if the odds are unusual both for the favorite and underdog team.

R


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March 25, 2024, 03:37:34 AM
 #73

Betting or gambling is very hard to win but I'd better go for 5 odd with only 4 selections then stake higher rather than having more than 5 games and take low to win something big. To me the main reason why some gamblers don't win is because of greed, gamblers should try to not be greedy in selecting games.

Not a bad idea. Sometimes, It is better to have consistent small gains than always risking your money on an underdog. Most of the time, favorite teams always end up winning. So, If someone is regularly betting on underdogs with money line, they'd for sure having more losses than wins.
Therefore, it is really important to analyze the game, look for the new around the league for possible changes in rotation due to players who are not able to play, usually because of the injuries. Stuff like these can make a huge impact to the odds. Though it could also be noticeable if the odds are unusual both for the favorite and underdog team.

I agree with you but when you get the best analysis you some how fall into the wrong hands like a team who's suppose to win get to lose, the part of key players who might be absent due to injury as the case maybe, might cause the odd to be high and it will make you make a decision of selecting the smaller odd, at the end the bigger odd wins.
I prefer going for an option that favors both sides, either BOTH TEAM TO SCORE or DOUBLE CHANCE, those options do happen but is a 85% chance of happening, that's why I find it hard to go for a favorite team to win.

R


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March 25, 2024, 05:55:28 AM
 #74

Betting or gambling is very hard to win but I'd better go for 5 odd with only 4 selections then stake higher rather than having more than 5 games and take low to win something big. To me the main reason why some gamblers don't win is because of greed, gamblers should try to not be greedy in selecting games.

Not a bad idea. Sometimes, It is better to have consistent small gains than always risking your money on an underdog. Most of the time, favorite teams always end up winning. So, If someone is regularly betting on underdogs with money line, they'd for sure having more losses than wins.
-snip-

Yes, they'll get more loses than wins, but wins will be greater than if someone is betting on top teams. A victory or a loss don't value the same, it depends on the odds, and the casino has already "discounted" any advantage from the team which is expected to win.

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March 25, 2024, 06:19:38 AM
 #75

what is your take on this kind of gambling, risking bigger money on some low odds with a small potential win and still the possibility of your pick to win is not even certain.

If a gambler like, he should go for big odds, small odds, big teams or even small team as well as compiling several games together on a single bet or even staking a single game, if he will win, then there's nothing to stop him from winning and same way from loosing, we are gambling because we don't even know about the outcome of the bet we are playing, sport betting particularly is a game that cannot be manipulated, what you play is what you see and you will either win or loose even though you buy prediction games.
maybe you're right from the context that sports betting can't be manipulated but from the angle making any not being calculative or trying to select options that will put you on a better side, I choose to disagree with you.

When it comes to sports betting, the teams involved aren't in most cases of the same strength and while one might be stronger than the other, others might not be that strong. It's just normal to play that a bigger team will win a smaller one and that's why the concept of giving bigger odds to the bigger teams because by the way the game is programmed, it's almost clear that big teams always beat the smaller ones and that's the reason why the smaller teams gets smaller odds to balance the whole thing up.

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March 25, 2024, 07:37:34 AM
 #76

My topic is based on those who are majorly into sports betting, we know in this aspect of gambling it is very risky to predict the outcome of any game from both teams to score, over and under, straight win and many more. Most times we bet on the big teams to win and the reverse becomes the result, either the small teams securing the win or ending in a draw. 


These are all factors of probability and chance of winning. I love sports betting. I don't always put my money on bets with small odds. It all depends on analysis and several other factors that allow me to determine my choice a few hours before the match. The favorite team has small odds. And not always choosing your favorite team will make you win. In football matches I often look at the historical and H2H factors of the two teams when they meet. I think some non-technical factors will also influence the outcome of the match. Like the City vs Mu match. MU is certainly the underdog in the match but the fact that the two teams have a rivalry means I will choose the draw option. It's the same as betting on Girona. I knew Girona's performance would decline at the end of the season because of their squad therefore I started to stop betting on Girona in the last few games.

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letteredhub
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March 25, 2024, 10:32:43 AM
 #77

Straight to the point most people are afraid of compiling big odds and now decide to go for lower odds with huge staking power which is not even guaranteed to give the predicted results. For example, there could be a match between Newcastle VS Tottenham Hotspur and both teams are having 1.5 and 1.3 odds respectively, a gambler may decide to bet only on Tottenham to straight win by only selecting this one game on his slip, what is your take on this kind of gambling, risking bigger money on some low odds with a small potential win and still the possibility of your pick to win is not even certain.
No strategy for gambling is certain or sure to bring in a win, from what I can say from the strategy of those gamblers that picks smaller odds (due to the believe that it has greater chances of giving the predicted result) to then risk big amount of cash to stake on the odd in order to get a substantial potential win amount. This strategy just like every other strategies are all aimed at minimizing risk to loss and not based on certainty. And this risk reduction is in levels depending on the strategy used.
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March 25, 2024, 10:47:14 AM
 #78

There is usually little chances to make successful predictions if predicting that a higher team would win a lower team. I am not in in cordial alliance that itis guaranteed but the influence of the team players and the clubs name would always stand some certain advantages to take the winning.

I am not biased towards those who picks lower risk predictions and stakes higher on it. I am only concerned to ask.... If the game cuts to bringing you loosing, can your emotions accept the fact that you loosed so solemnly, without being sentimental ? There are also gamblers whom we think they stakes be higher amounts but to them, it is a little amount because they can afford it while others finds the values not easily affordable and so, does not Worth staking on and gets it lost.

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March 25, 2024, 11:20:32 AM
 #79

Betting or gambling is very hard to win but I'd better go for 5 odd with only 4 selections then stake higher rather than having more than 5 games and take low to win something big. To me the main reason why some gamblers don't win is because of greed, gamblers should try to not be greedy in selecting games.

Not a bad idea. Sometimes, It is better to have consistent small gains than always risking your money on an underdog.
yes this is also my way in gambling sportsbetting , to take small gains even 2-5%

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Most of the time, favorite teams always end up winning. So, If someone is regularly betting on underdogs with money line, they'd for sure having more losses than wins.
but we cannot deny the fact that the bigger we can earn/win bigger and this is
why risk taker keeps trying their luck.

Quote
Therefore, it is really important to analyze the game, look for the new around the league for possible changes in rotation due to players who are not able to play, usually because of the injuries. Stuff like these can make a huge impact to the odds. Though it could also be noticeable if the odds are unusual both for the favorite and underdog team.
and also try to seek refuge from other gamblers that knows those games and
teams more than us.

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March 25, 2024, 11:35:48 AM
 #80

My topic is based on those who are majorly into sports betting, we know in this aspect of gambling it is very risky to predict the outcome of any game from both teams to score, over and under, straight win and many more. Most times we bet on the big teams to win and the reverse becomes the result, either the small teams securing the win or ending in a draw.

Straight to the point most people are afraid of compiling big odds and now decide to go for lower odds with huge staking power which is not even guaranteed to give the predicted results. For example, there could be a match between Newcastle VS Tottenham Hotspur and both teams are having 1.5 and 1.3 odds respectively, a gambler may decide to bet only on Tottenham to straight win by only selecting this one game on his slip, what is your take on this kind of gambling, risking bigger money on some low odds with a small potential win and still the possibility of your pick to win is not even certain.

First of all, all gambling games has risk and risk is even higher with other games than with sports betting simply because most of those are dependent with luck alone unlike with sportsbetting wherein analysis do work as a factor to determine which team would possibly be winning. And if it is choosing whether engaging with small bets on high odds than with high bets on small odds, I'd prefer the low wager with high risk and high return. The reason is lack of assurance to win eitherway. Indeed chances of winning is higher with smaller odds which would be tempting to increase your wager but since nothing's certain, you could still lose and that covers your high bet. And with low betting amount to higher odds, at least if it would be a losing outcome, you won't be in much burden and if ever you happened to win, then congrats! Either betting strategy would be fine as long as you know your numbers for yourself.

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