Is the halving already priced in?

[Blitzboy]

People are debating if the upcoming halving's already factored into the price. Some folks say it is, but frankly, they're missing the bigger picture. The Bitcoin market is smart, but it can still surprise you. Saying something as huge as the halving is completely priced in? Thats naive. The halving cuts the supply of new coins - simple economics, that makes things more valuable. We've seen this pattern before.

Maybe some short-term effects are priced in, but the long game is different. Markets react ahead of time, but the real impact comes later. With the supply dropping, and demand staying strong (which, lets be real, is likely with Bitcoin), prices have room to grow. And remember, Bitcoin's a revolution, not just another stock. Spot ETFs in America, thats a major step - more investors, more acceptance. This is about long-term growth, about making Bitcoin a truly established asset.

So, is the halving priced in? Partly, maybe. But keep your eyes open, because the best part is yet to come. Markets are never static, there are always more factors than just one event. The months after the halving could be steady, sure, but theres major potential for growth too.

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[naira]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Like the cycles we have gone through, the difference that is most difficult to predict is when the ATH has been reached while the Halving has not occurred. You could say that it violates the previous halving scheme which was basically Halving -> ATH but now it is reversed to ATH -> Halving, automatically our calculations will be reversed or even with a phenomenon like this the future cycle will also change. It makes sense what you say where it could be that the Halving is now relatively the same price. There is only one thing that makes me doubt, namely regarding adoption which is supported by the decreasing supply in circulation. In other words, there are 2 schemes, namely first, the price during the halving is relatively the same or vice versa the price will record new history again.

[Kelward]

The halving is not priced yet because basically, the price is just within the range of the previous ATH so we should be expecting some post halving pumps which will be during the bull market because since the price reached a new ATH before the halving it is expected to create another ATH that will take over the $73k it is now and it can be achieved during the bull run

I'm of the opinion too that halving is not priced in, considering that we've seen for the first time a new ATH before it, and the bull run is still in it's very early stage, it's most probable that during post halving after supply is cut in half that we're going to experience price surge and see a new ATH. Except for the Bitcoin ETF that made us to see a new ATH before halving, I think that everything will go as it used to during the past halvings, although I'm expecting a massive bull run that'll give us a mind-blowing ATH in it's peak.

[dimonstration]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Imho opinion yes. The price will normally correct harsh after the approval of ETF confirmed that pump the price to around 40k to 50k that time. Bitcoin halving effects makes the pump from ETF longer and sustain to 60K level even though the price show some weakness sometimes.

People are still not in panic mode because they knew that halving event is still upcoming. Usually the effect of Bitcoin halving take effect before the event then price discovery will follow after the event slowly.

[AnonBitCoiner]

I don't think that price of halving will be same as that of current price and 73k$ is all the time high price but we will soon see that price will hit this value too. Halving has not taken place yet so everyone is Estonished that if the value is 73k$ before halving then what will be the price during or after halving so it has created a thoughts among the people that may be bitcoin does not exceed than 73k$ in current year.

But I think that it will go more higher than 73k$ and halving price will be totally different from that of present price. People are still waiting for another ATH so I think if buying become more successful then very soon halving will bring the value that will not be in our mind as everything is unpredictable.

[leeboy]

No one knows the real answer but everyone hopes that it will go much higher

[Oneandpure]

I don't think that price of halving will be same as that of current price and 73k$ is all the time high price but we will soon see that price will hit this value too. Halving has not taken place yet so everyone is Estonished that if the value is 73k$ before halving then what will be the price during or after halving so it has created a thoughts among the people that may be bitcoin does not exceed than 73k$ in current year.

But I think that it will go more higher than 73k$ and halving price will be totally different from that of present price. People are still waiting for another ATH so I think if buying become more successful then very soon halving will bring the value that will not be in our mind as everything is unpredictable.

I don't think with bitcoin has higher price when halving time, since break the all time high price until $73k bitcoin get difficult position break out more higher price again. Seems is the higher price of bitcoin and halving can't give any positive impact yet for bitcoin reaching more higher price behind two weeks left and bitcoin can't raise up significant.
Some investor keep waiting will has chance new higher price for bitcoin or will drop after halving time, current bitcoin have too expensive after raising drastically since dropping drastically last year. I have sold my bitcoin assets and waiting moment with bitcoin going drop to buy back or potential how bitcoin grow up to make another all time high price.

[Thunda]

It appears that it has been priced in. I believe we are currently in the "post halving" dip.

[eightdots]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Bitcoin crosses its ATH in certain cycles and this crossing is much higher than the old ATH. The price is not currently at a high level relative to the ATH, so there hasn't been a pricing development yet. I think it's too early to talk about that because I think we will see a new ATH and that ATH will be much higher than the current ATH.

The halving might be priced in, but I think it's better to focus on the next ATH as we can't be sure about that.

I don't expect a big change in Bitcoin price after the halving, but if the pricing didn't happen before the halving, Bitcoin could make a positive price move. Still, being cautious protects every investor.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Looking back in the history of Bitcoin prices, I have known that Bitcoin usually reaches its bull price peak a year after the halving has taken place. Although Bitcoin has never reached an all-time high before halving, since that has happened this year, that doesn't mean it is going to be the latest price of Bitcoin for the bull season; perhaps the bull season is not even yet over. Bitcoin is not yet priced in; we have until after next year to believe that we'll finally be facing a bearish season.

[darkangel11]

I don't think it is.
Historically, all halvings were beginning to be priced in months later and that's because the effects of the halving are long term. You can't expect the halving to move price right away because it affects coins mined in the future, but the farther we get from it the more of these new, more expensive coins enter the market and nobody will want to dump them below the mining cost. Many people underestimate the inflationary pressure from miners, but it's there and it's constant. We are getting 900 new coins every single day and it may not enter the market daily, but over the course of a month or two you can expect a large part of it to be sold. This is going to be cut in half soon and 450 btc less every day is a big deal. It's around $30 million worth of bitcoin less every single day!
IMO we're going to experience at least one more big push this year and possibly another one next year before the bear market comes. Cycles are still here but we got that early bull thanks to the ETFs which doesn't change the fact that bull market should last for at least another year.

[The Cryptovator]

To be honest, I don't expect a massive pump before halving. Rather, I am expecting a pump after halving. The last pump was due to ETD hype, which was almost gone. Now that Bitcoin is stable, it is likely that during the halving we won't see significant price movements. From past history, we have seen the Bitcoin pump later halve. So this time it would happen the same thing. It's because Bitcoin has already pumped and is now taking a break. We can say we are preparing for another pump that will break the $80K zone. Even not this year, but next year expect to trade above $100K in Bitcoin. 

[DaNNy001]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

So many are already being skeptical about the price movement is now different from other years that Bitcoin actually waver around it's old ATH until after the halving before the new set ATH is achieved but for this year it's all different. But from my end although this is my first real involvement during a halving year so I think am still positive about the price moving or going up to atleast 100k after the halving is all over.

[Raflesia]

Yeah, it can be felt that for now where when previously the Spot ETF became a new milestone that bitcoin experienced a significant increase even to touch a new ATH where it rarely happens which makes the condition of bitcoin more difficult to predict its future but on the other hand I still believe that Halving always provides answers that are more in line with my expectations so in this case I think bitcoin will still exceed our thinking especially in terms of price so it is not impossible in the sealnjut period when bitcoin enters the halving time we will find a new ATH that we cannot predict before because indeed the movement of bitcoin with scarcity beyond our thinking, especially in terms of price so it is not impossible in the next period when bitcoin enters halving time we will rediscover a new ATH that we could not predict before because indeed the movement of bitcoin with better scarcity, there will certainly be a situation where the price will be higher and it is not impossible that for this new ATH always provides expectations in accordance with what we expect.

[Rengga Jati]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Soon, Bitcoin halving will occur. It looks like reaching a new ATH before the halving, this might have a chance to happen, but it's not that big. markert will probably focus more on the halving first and see how it develops. Later, after the halving, that's the time to pump again, to try to test the price to the next ATH.

Although, currently, various price predictions are sometimes wrong, due to the case of selling confiscated BTC in the US yesterday. and also several down trends which made the BTC price volatile enough to go down. And maybe this isn't the peak of the drop yet.

but what is certain is that our confidence in BTC reaching a new and much higher ATH is definitely there, 99% will be there. And that happened after the halving, who knows a few months later. The hope is as soon as possible, even though that means we also have to get through this period as quickly as possible.

[Vincom]

Oh, that strong sensation of deja vu....I recall several threads speculating about what BTC might do pre/post-halvening, and IIRC members who thought that it was priced in were shot down (or at least there wasn't much support for that theory).

I happen to think all of the halvings are priced in, and that's if there's anything to price in at all.  There's no reason why bitcoin should do anything when the block reward gets chopped in half, right?  Just because the miners need a higher price to keep them in the black doesn't provide an impetus for anything at all to happen to the market.

And I remember writing a few times that no matter what my opinion is, bitcoin could rise based on people speculating that the halving is going to boost the price, and I think that's happened.  Ah, I don't know.  I'm just going to watch like I always do and root for $100k--but I'm hoping it gets there gradually, not in a massive 2017 spike.

Halving is the only BTC event that we can be sure will happen after every 210K blocks, and coincidentally, it often drives rapid growth in BTC price in the 6-9 months after Halving. I think Halving with the narrative of doubling scarcity has become one of the important drivers for BTC price to recover from the bottom and continue to grow. Coincidentally, Halving happens every 4 years and the global economy also has a 4-year cycle, this could be Satoshi's careful choice to help BTC grow thanks to the loosening of money flow in the economy.

I also think that the positive impact of Halving has been absorbed into BTC price, meaning that Halving could be a sell the news event, causing BTC price to not be able to grow as strongly as expected, but will adjust in the short term to re-accumulate and transfer money flow to altcoins and we will have an altcoin summer similar to 2020.

However, we also have spot BTC ETFs, this product has contributed to creating ATH before halving, and when investment consultants can introduce this product to their clients, we can witness the growth of net inflows and BTC price will continue to receive positive impact from this. We have too many variables that make predicting BTC's price action around halving more complex!

[oktana]

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Yes. I strongly believe that the halving has already been factored into the price we’re seeing today. Unless there would be another wave of hype, this is just about what we’re getting for now. However, I believe that after the halving, Bitcoin would gradually step up again, at least on or before the year gets to the 3rd quarter.

[o48o]

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

My experience and pure feeling about markets tells me it's not priced in. I am not reading all predictions from others or TA at this point as i knew it's going to be a bumpy ride.

During every huge bull markt there are always some perma bears ready who will jump to push their agenda when ever there's a slightest dip, and they see that as a confirmation for their bias. And of course once in a blue moon they are right, but this is not the time. And this goes both ways, as there are perma bulls as well.

Everyone who have seen few actual bull runs should see that we are in the middle of one of them. And they always have bounces because that's how volatility works. I would be really worried if bitcoin would just keep going up without any corrections.

[taufik123]

-snip-
2. The post-halving rally
This is the actual rise which is a lot bigger and it happens because the supply creation rate is actually cut by half (50% reduction) by then and its effects show up in the market and on the price. This starts slower and continues speeding up until we see that big bubble at the end (assuming the same cycle-type thing happens this time).

Considering that we are about 2 weeks away from halving and price doesn't seem to like to rise anymore we can say that the  first phase is priced in.

So we just go through the first wave of rally, and the second wave will be bigger and will certainly reach a new ATH that is crazier but with slower timing than before.

The rally after the halving has been the most awaited, but before that happens I think the price will tend to correct first to gather considerable volume and then continue until a new ATH is created again, maybe above $100k according to the target that many people expect.

[SeriouslyGiveaway]

I predict that this cycle has run faster than previous cycles. Therefore, instead of Bitcoin price breaking its ATH after the halving, it has now broken its ATH before the halving event. And with the correction of nearly 20% in recent days, it quite coincides with the period of Bitcoin adjusting after the halving event in previous cycles.

Maybe many people expect the correction to be as big as in previous cycles, but I actually think it's quite difficult when the cash flow from ETFs into market is still very steady and the real demand for buying Bitcoin has increased many times higher than before, so it will not be easy for Bitcoin price to adjust deeply.

I have noticed that people's psychology in the market has been quite confused recently when all historical data seems to be inconsistent with what is happening with Bitcoin price. They don't know whether to continue buying at the current price or continue watching to wait for a really big correction after the halving event. In my personal opinion, on Bitcoin's upward journey, there will always be adjustments, which are necessary for the market, but the level of adjustment in this cycle will not fluctuate sharply when possible decreased more than 50% in a few days like previous cycles.