2024 Elliott Wave

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[sparkl3t]

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2024/04/20240408-btcusd.png

Not a triangle, maybe a complex flat

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Not a triangle, maybe a complex flat

Appears to be Falling Triangle at the moment...

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[d5000]

Your analysis of late March, where you predicted a deeper fall below 60k, was actually quite good (even it the dip got lower than your predicted 57-58k, but I believe this was mainly due to long liquidations and a mini-panic)

I am also quite a fan of Elliott waves because they can be explained well with mass psychology and with the "overbought"/"oversold" conditions.

For the current slightly bearish movement we're seeing since the March ATH of >73k, I think the most likely options are (in decreasing probability, from my subjective point of view):

1) a bearish wave 4 in a ~2-3-year bullish cycle with peak in late 2024 or early 2025. Wave 1 would have been, in this case, the movement in late 2022 to mid-2023 up to 32k. Wave 2 would have been the consolidation down to 25-26k, and Wave 3 then the whole way up to 73K. This means that after this wave 4 has bottomed, an "euphoria phase" with >100k could follow.
2) a correction inside a bullish wave 3, peak would be in early to mid 2025. This would be even more bullish, because then we could expect some more ATHs (perhaps up to 80-90k or even 100k) before wave 4 sets in and brings us again down to 55-70k or so. The likelihood of this scenario, in my opinion, has however lowered in favour of scenario 1 due to the relatively weak last weeks.
3) a bearish wave 2 in a 3-4-year bullish cycle, peak in late 2025 or even 2026. This would be the most bullish option, but I think it's relatively unlikely. Basically that would mean that everything from 15.5k up to 73k was a Wave 1. And in my opinion, taking into account the attention levels and psychologic sentiment (Google Trends, Greed & Fear etc.) we have already advanced more than this stage. The only argument in favour of that scenario is tha none of the corrections we've seen in this bull market before the current wave was really important enough to be considered a "wave". In the short term this would be bearish, it could mean we could fall down to 50k before seeing 70k again, but in the mid to long term this would be uber-bullish, the cycle high in 2025 could then easily surpass $200.000 or even more.

Let's see how it plays out, interesting times ahead

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Your analysis of late March, where you predicted a deeper fall below 60k, was actually quite good (even it the dip got lower than your predicted 57-58k, but I believe this was mainly due to long liquidations and a mini-panic)

I am also quite a fan of Elliott waves because they can be explained well with mass psychology and with the "overbought"/"oversold" conditions.

For the current slightly bearish movement we're seeing since the March ATH of >73k, I think the most likely options are (in decreasing probability, from my subjective point of view):

1) a bearish wave 4 in a ~2-3-year bullish cycle with peak in late 2024 or early 2025. Wave 1 would have been, in this case, the movement in late 2022 to mid-2023 up to 32k. Wave 2 would have been the consolidation down to 25-26k, and Wave 3 then the whole way up to 73K. This means that after this wave 4 has bottomed, an "euphoria phase" with >100k could follow.
2) a correction inside a bullish wave 3, peak would be in early to mid 2025. This would be even more bullish, because then we could expect some more ATHs (perhaps up to 80-90k or even 100k) before wave 4 sets in and brings us again down to 55-70k or so. The likelihood of this scenario, in my opinion, has however lowered in favour of scenario 1 due to the relatively weak last weeks.
3) a bearish wave 2 in a 3-4-year bullish cycle, peak in late 2025 or even 2026. This would be the most bullish option, but I think it's relatively unlikely. Basically that would mean that everything from 15.5k up to 73k was a Wave 1. And in my opinion, taking into account the attention levels and psychologic sentiment (Google Trends, Greed & Fear etc.) we have already advanced more than this stage. The only argument in favour of that scenario is tha none of the corrections we've seen in this bull market before the current wave was really important enough to be considered a "wave". In the short term this would be bearish, it could mean we could fall down to 50k before seeing 70k again, but in the mid to long term this would be uber-bullish, the cycle high in 2025 could then easily surpass $200.000 or even more.

Let's see how it plays out, interesting times ahead

There is a wave, a pullback, from 11-JAN-2024 to 23-JAN-2024, a -21.50% decline, which your first option is overlooking perhaps ?

[d5000]

There is a wave, a pullback, from 11-JAN-2024 to 23-JAN-2024, a -21.50% decline, which your first option is overlooking perhaps ?

Completely correct, and in fact I was favouring my model "2" until the 56.5k dip happened just for this reason.

However, while the pullback in January was significant regarding the "depth" of the correction, with over 20% loss, it was very short compared to the mid-2023 pullback (31->25k) and the current pullback (73-56.5). The January pullback lasted less than two weeks, while the other two, which I thus favour to be the 2 and 4 bearish waves were much longer (the current pullback will soon be 2 months long). We could thus explain the January pullback simply as a period of higher-than-normal volatility inside a minor pullback due to the ETF decisions.

But I don't rule out that model 2 is still the one to follow. Would be of course more bullish. If 56.5k was the bottom there are still chances that this model holds.

The model you're favouring, which is my item 3, is of course also not impossible. This would be basically equivalent to the "Supercycle" or "this time it's different" theory. But I have slight doubts about it. I also think I disagree that the peak of this wave would be the end of the uptrend since 2011. IMO such long cycles in the case of a novel asset like Bitcoin can only be evaluated taking into account the real adoption/success.