When in 2013 shall Bitcoin break its all-time-high of $31?

[Dafar]

I see plenty of sad old bears in this thread...

If you want to win the Bitcoin game you need to buy and forget. Check back in a year...

Unless you miss out on something catastrophic happening to bitcoin that plunges the value back to single digits or 0

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[mestar]

Depends on when we get to the situation where mining difficulty is decreasing.  History shows that every time the difficulty decreases for more than 30%, Bitcoin loses about 90% of its value. 

Ok, it happened once, from June 2011 to December 2011. But still, you can see it here http://blockchained.com/, 7th chart from the top, titled Bitcoin difficulty vs market price logaritmic, all data. 

It's quite logical.  Decreasing difficulty means that miners are operating at the edge of zero profitability, and must sell almost all their new coins to cover the cost of electricity.  Also, decreasing difficulty dampens the speculators' spirits.  No new speculating cash coming in, and miners must sell.

Expect this phase to begin in 3 to 7 months, that is when a long slide down will start.  If it loses 90%, it means going down to $100, but since we are at much higher levels now, it could be a bigger slide, it could easily go down to $10 to $50 range.

[Akka]

Ha, thx for Bumping this.

I voted "Never" back then 

[pungopete468]

I see plenty of sad old bears in this thread...

If you want to win the Bitcoin game you need to buy and forget. Check back in a year...

Unless you miss out on something catastrophic happening to bitcoin that plunges the value back to single digits or 0

I think that's a chance you need to be willing to accept if you trade in BTC. I think the chances of that are slim to none...

You stand a greater chance to lose money by day trading on a market which nobody truly understands yet.

[mp420]

People were expecting BTC to go to the moon in Jul-Aug 2011. It did, but it took two years instead of a few months, and it dropped significantly lower than anyone (except the most hardcore bears) predicted in the meantime. I'm expecting a similar pattern at the moment.

[Salivan]

Depends on when we get to the situation where mining difficulty is decreasing.  History shows that every time the difficulty decreases for more than 30%, Bitcoin loses about 90% of its value. 

Ok, it happened once, from June 2011 to December 2011. But still, you can see it here http://blockchained.com/, 7th chart from the top, titled Bitcoin difficulty vs market price logaritmic, all data. 

It's quite logical.  Decreasing difficulty means that miners are operating at the edge of zero profitability, and must sell almost all their new coins to cover the cost of electricity.  Also, decreasing difficulty dampens the speculators' spirits.  No new speculating cash coming in, and miners must sell.

Expect this phase to begin in 3 to 7 months, that is when a long slide down will start.  If it loses 90%, it means going down to $100, but since we are at much higher levels now, it could be a bigger slide, it could easily go down to $10 to $50 range.

pure insanity, hard to comment

[piramida]

great find. good to see that the same crap was written all along.

$ 31

Wow.

Yep that helps me answer a question I've been asking myself recently - why the hell didn't we all buy more when it was at single digits? Because brave minds fought over the question "will we ever see $31 again", everyone thought there will be plenty of time to buy cheap. Imagine somebody from the future replying here that in 2013 the price would go to triple digits He'd be considered crazy. But it actually went to four digits; puts things in perspective.

[Kreigyr]

Depends on when we get to the situation where mining difficulty is decreasing.  History shows that every time the difficulty decreases for more than 30%, Bitcoin loses about 90% of its value. 

Ok, it happened once, from June 2011 to December 2011. But still, you can see it here http://blockchained.com/, 7th chart from the top, titled Bitcoin difficulty vs market price logaritmic, all data. 

It's quite logical.  Decreasing difficulty means that miners are operating at the edge of zero profitability, and must sell almost all their new coins to cover the cost of electricity.  Also, decreasing difficulty dampens the speculators' spirits.  No new speculating cash coming in, and miners must sell.

Expect this phase to begin in 3 to 7 months, that is when a long slide down will start.  If it loses 90%, it means going down to $100, but since we are at much higher levels now, it could be a bigger slide, it could easily go down to $10 to $50 range.

The difficulty decreased because the speculation shot itself in the foot, not the other way around.

[mestar]

The difficulty decreased because the speculation shot itself in the foot, not the other way around.

The other way around, would that be "The foot shot itself in the speculation"?

[skivrmt]

Can't wait to bump threads like this next year.. threads saying when will BTC break $10k? With 90% of people saying never or in 2-3 years... hopefully we'll look back and laugh at $10k/btc and move on to speculating $100k/btc

How high is it going to get this year? I need to know how much to invest.

Safe/expected: ~$2000-$4000

Possible and not too unlikely: ~$5000-$10,000

Bullish: $10,000+

Amazing (2014 = year of bitcoin): $20-$40K

Or we crash and burn... almost as likely as all the other scenarios.

The problem with this prediction(s) is you can't be wrong!  You basically said its either going up, going way up, or going way way up.  Or going way down.  I think the only way you "lose" is if Bitcoin stays at $800-1000.  Not a bad Nostradamus we have on our hands here.   Lol.

[keithers]

can you imagine how quickly the price would be bought back up to $700-$800 if the price of BTC was all the sudden $31/btc?   I bet it would happen in under an hour...

[Trujillo]

Seeing threads like this get bumped are always awesome. If only we could all go back to the $31 days just for a little bit