arachn1d (OP)
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April 13, 2011, 12:14:14 PM |
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If I'm running 2x 6950's then I'm probably paying more in electricity than money I am generating... correct?
Second question. The difilculty within a year changes how much? Will 2x 6950's generate a good amount of bitcoin for another year or do you guys have to upgrade GPU's for bitcoins every year?
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Grinder
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April 13, 2011, 12:38:50 PM |
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1. I doubt that, especially if they're in the same machine. What I was talking about in the other thread was ATI 4xxx cards and Nvidia.
2. No idea what it will be in a year, but it depends a lot on how the price of bitcoins develop.
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mrjones
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April 13, 2011, 08:46:31 PM |
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Second question. The difilculty within a year changes how much? Will 2x 6950's generate a good amount of bitcoin for another year or do you guys have to upgrade GPU's for bitcoins every year?
The difficulty changes every 2016 blocks, which on average will be once every two weeks. It can change by up to a factor of four in either direction, but lately has been much less than that. Right now, the difficulty is 82347, and best estimates say it will increase to 93094 at the next change in 717 blocks (+13%). Suppose you had a configuration that could produce 580 million hashes per second (roughly a pair of 6950's). That means it takes 7 days, 1 hour, 23 minutes to generate 50 bitcoins on average right now. That's just a hair under 50 bitcoins per week. Let's say 49.35, which is a number I happened to do the math with earlier today. As a simple example, consider the case where the difficulty continued to increase by 13% every two weeks for a year. We'll assume the difficulty changes exactly every two weeks for simplicity. That means the following would happen: Week 1 BTC 49.35
Week 2 BTC 49.35
Week 3 BTC 43.67
Week 4 BTC 43.67
Week 5 BTC 38.65
Week 6 BTC 38.65
Week 7 BTC 34.20
Week 8 BTC 34.20
Week 9 BTC 30.27
Week 10 BTC 30.27
Week 11 BTC 26.79
Week 12 BTC 26.79
Week 13 BTC 23.70
Week 14 BTC 23.70
Week 15 BTC 20.98
Week 16 BTC 20.98
Week 17 BTC 18.56
Week 18 BTC 18.56
Week 19 BTC 16.43
Week 20 BTC 16.43
Week 21 BTC 14.54
Week 22 BTC 14.54
Week 23 BTC 12.87
Week 24 BTC 12.87
Week 25 BTC 11.39
Week 26 BTC 11.39
Week 27 BTC 10.08
Week 28 BTC 10.08
Week 29 BTC 8.92
Week 30 BTC 8.92
Week 31 BTC 7.89
Week 32 BTC 7.89
Week 33 BTC 6.98
Week 34 BTC 6.98
Week 35 BTC 6.18
Week 36 BTC 6.18
Week 37 BTC 5.47
Week 38 BTC 5.47
Week 39 BTC 4.84
Week 40 BTC 4.84
Week 41 BTC 4.28
Week 42 BTC 4.28
Week 43 BTC 3.79
Week 44 BTC 3.79
Week 45 BTC 3.35
Week 46 BTC 3.35
Week 47 BTC 2.97
Week 48 BTC 2.97
Week 49 BTC 2.63
Week 50 BTC 2.63
Week 51 BTC 2.32
Week 52 BTC 2.32 The current exchange rate is USD 0.92 for one BTC. (Please note that I am not considering exchange rate fluctuations; that is a different topic, and if you want to make money on exchange rate speculation, you can simply buy the bitcoins rather than generate them.) Each 6950 consumes 200 watts at full load, so that is 400 watts total. A high-end power supply is approximately 85% efficient, so that means they will consume 470 watts of power. Per day, that is 11.28 kilowatt hours, or 78.96 per week. According to the Department of Energy the average power cost in the US right now is 11.04 US cents per kilowatt hour, which means a cost of USD 8.71 per week. That means that after week 30, you would actually be losing money, so you would stop then. Up to week 30, you will have made 660 bitcoins, which at the current exchange rate is USD 607.20. Your electricity costs will have been USD 261.30. This gives you a net profit of USD 345.90. Considering that a 6950 sells for USD 240 right now, this does not pay for the cards (let alone any associated computer) before mining with them is no longer profitable. You will need to sell the cards to see a profit. The days of making a fortune in the bitcoin market by buying hardware are likely numbered. |
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arachn1d (OP)
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April 13, 2011, 11:33:39 PM |
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Second question. The difilculty within a year changes how much? Will 2x 6950's generate a good amount of bitcoin for another year or do you guys have to upgrade GPU's for bitcoins every year?
The difficulty changes every 2016 blocks, which on average will be once every two weeks. It can change by up to a factor of four in either direction, but lately has been much less than that. Right now, the difficulty is 82347, and best estimates say it will increase to 93094 at the next change in 717 blocks (+13%). Suppose you had a configuration that could produce 580 million hashes per second (roughly a pair of 6950's). That means it takes 7 days, 1 hour, 23 minutes to generate 50 bitcoins on average right now. That's just a hair under 50 bitcoins per week. Let's say 49.35, which is a number I happened to do the math with earlier today. As a simple example, consider the case where the difficulty continued to increase by 13% every two weeks for a year. We'll assume the difficulty changes exactly every two weeks for simplicity. That means the following would happen: Week 1 BTC 49.35
Week 2 BTC 49.35
Week 3 BTC 43.67
Week 4 BTC 43.67
Week 5 BTC 38.65
Week 6 BTC 38.65
Week 7 BTC 34.20
Week 8 BTC 34.20
Week 9 BTC 30.27
Week 10 BTC 30.27
Week 11 BTC 26.79
Week 12 BTC 26.79
Week 13 BTC 23.70
Week 14 BTC 23.70
Week 15 BTC 20.98
Week 16 BTC 20.98
Week 17 BTC 18.56
Week 18 BTC 18.56
Week 19 BTC 16.43
Week 20 BTC 16.43
Week 21 BTC 14.54
Week 22 BTC 14.54
Week 23 BTC 12.87
Week 24 BTC 12.87
Week 25 BTC 11.39
Week 26 BTC 11.39
Week 27 BTC 10.08
Week 28 BTC 10.08
Week 29 BTC 8.92
Week 30 BTC 8.92
Week 31 BTC 7.89
Week 32 BTC 7.89
Week 33 BTC 6.98
Week 34 BTC 6.98
Week 35 BTC 6.18
Week 36 BTC 6.18
Week 37 BTC 5.47
Week 38 BTC 5.47
Week 39 BTC 4.84
Week 40 BTC 4.84
Week 41 BTC 4.28
Week 42 BTC 4.28
Week 43 BTC 3.79
Week 44 BTC 3.79
Week 45 BTC 3.35
Week 46 BTC 3.35
Week 47 BTC 2.97
Week 48 BTC 2.97
Week 49 BTC 2.63
Week 50 BTC 2.63
Week 51 BTC 2.32
Week 52 BTC 2.32 The current exchange rate is USD 0.92 for one BTC. (Please note that I am not considering exchange rate fluctuations; that is a different topic, and if you want to make money on exchange rate speculation, you can simply buy the bitcoins rather than generate them.) Each 6950 consumes 200 watts at full load, so that is 400 watts total. A high-end power supply is approximately 85% efficient, so that means they will consume 470 watts of power. Per day, that is 11.28 kilowatt hours, or 78.96 per week. According to the Department of Energy the average power cost in the US right now is 11.04 US cents per kilowatt hour, which means a cost of USD 8.71 per week. That means that after week 30, you would actually be losing money, so you would stop then. Up to week 30, you will have made 660 bitcoins, which at the current exchange rate is USD 607.20. Your electricity costs will have been USD 261.30. This gives you a net profit of USD 345.90. Considering that a 6950 sells for USD 240 right now, this does not pay for the cards (let alone any associated computer) before mining with them is no longer profitable. You will need to sell the cards to see a profit. The days of making a fortune in the bitcoin market by buying hardware are likely numbered. Wow, great math thanks. It really does seem that it's pointless to "mine" for money now. Best way to make money is typical stock market stuff, buy low, sell high. |
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Loader009
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April 13, 2011, 11:49:36 PM |
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Small question (as you are good in math  ) I think others think like you and the most will stop to mine in about 30 weeks. Could it be that the BitCoin system is compromised in some way? It would mean, that the difficulty must change to a better rate, but if it doesn't, no one would mine. If nobody mines, the system doesn't works anymore. Are my thoughts correct? Greetz |
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[Tycho]
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April 14, 2011, 12:11:19 AM |
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It would mean, that the difficulty must change to a better rate, but if it doesn't, no one would mine.
If nobody mines, the system doesn't works anymore.
Are my thoughts correct?
No. If people stop mining then difficulty will go down to keep speed at 1 block per ~10 minutes. |
Welcome to my bitcoin mining pool: https://deepbit.net - Both payment schemes (including PPS), instant payout, no invalid blocks ! ICBIT Trading platform : USD/BTC futures trading, Bitcoin difficulty futures ( NEW!). Third year in bitcoin business. |
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MoonShadow
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April 14, 2011, 12:14:38 AM |
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Small question (as you are good in math ) I think others think like you and the most will stop to mine in about 30 weeks. Could it be that the BitCoin system is compromised in some way? It would mean, that the difficulty must change to a better rate, but if it doesn't, no one would mine. If nobody mines, the system doesn't works anymore. Are my thoughts correct? Greetz It's not that no one will mine, it's that only those who are already vested, and those who have particularly favorable electric rates, will continue to mine. If every marginal miner stopped mining as soon as it was economicly unfavorable for them to do so, the difficulty would stagnate at that level until something changed. The value of the bitcoin could go up, which would make mining profitable again at the same difficulty level; or the difficulty level could go down. This is how the balance is created. As it is, there is already evidence that balance has been found, as the difficulty appears to track the 6 weeks rolling average price closely. Said another way, as the price goes up, more miners join the network; and as the price drops, the most marginal miners drop out first. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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Loader009
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April 14, 2011, 12:36:13 AM |
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Nice answers, thanks to both I've searched for such answers but I didn't found... Any documentation for BitCoin you recommend? (Want to understand the system, but sometimes I've got questions.) Greetz |
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allinvain
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April 14, 2011, 01:13:16 AM |
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Hehehe...and I just bought a 5970 last week. Sucks that I'll have maybe a few more months before it becomes unprofitable to mine with it. It's ok though as my aspiration for bitcoin is that it catches on and sort of goes more 'mainstream'. Mining is fun and all but it should not be what bitcoin becomes well known for. I wish more people would start some sort of bitcoin based business - invest in that instead of mining hardware.
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Loader009
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April 14, 2011, 01:44:28 AM |
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I'm thinking of hosting a minecraft server with bitcoin based donations But it's just a thougt, have to work in it ^^ Also this is a little much off-topic  Greetz |
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Cryptoman
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April 14, 2011, 04:47:10 PM |
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The value of the bitcoin could go up, which would make mining profitable again at the same difficulty level; or the difficulty level could go down. This is how the balance is created. As it is, there is already evidence that balance has been found, as the difficulty appears to track the 6 weeks rolling average price closely. There's another component to this that has me concerned. It's true that a balance will be reached at which the value of BTC allows for a marginal profit for efficient miners and that transactions will continue to be confirmed. However, will the resultant hash rate be sufficient to prevent attack by supercomputers and botnets? Also, what happens when mining reward drops from 50 to 25 BTC? It's not clear to me that there will always be enough people interested in mining to keep the hash rate sufficiently high to ward off attacks. |
"A small body of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission can alter the course of history." --Gandhi
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Jaime Frontero
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April 14, 2011, 05:04:34 PM |
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Also, what happens when mining reward drops from 50 to 25 BTC? It's not clear to me that there will always be enough people interested in mining to keep the hash rate sufficiently high to ward off attacks.
My suspicion is that by the time the reward drops from 50 to 25, Bitcoin will either be dead - or very, *very* robust. If the latter, then 25 BTC will convert (to any currency) at a /much/ higher rate than it does now. So if 25 BTC will then be worth more than 50 is now, I don't believe there will be any fewer miners - probably more. And... Moore's Law... mining hardware will be cheaper by then. |
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MoonShadow
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April 14, 2011, 06:29:18 PM |
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There's another component to this that has me concerned. It's true that a balance will be reached at which the value of BTC allows for a marginal profit for efficient miners and that transactions will continue to be confirmed. However, will the resultant hash rate be sufficient to prevent attack by supercomputers and botnets?
That's a hard one to answer, but the first question would be, how much is enough? |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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mjsbuddha
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yung lean
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April 15, 2011, 04:20:09 AM |
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mrjones your numbers are right but thats only if bitcoins stay at the current value. As the difficulty goes up it will be harder for each miner to get bitcoins and as something becomes scarce its value goes up. I forget who it was that posted a chart recently showing that bitcoin value has been fallowing the mining difficulty trend pretty closely. If difficulty goes up 13% a week you can expect long term bitcoin value to go up every week.
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