[Cosmopolis] Prepare for Bitcoin $266 Retest

[porcupine87]

I just asked my autistic friend. He says cosmotard is a nut job. His prediction is 550 by Friday, April 7th 2014, with 51% chance. "Ain't no way it's going down to 266," he states.

My autistic friend says, and he is never wrong, that 266$ will be tested by a chance of 10%. So if we test 266$ it is this 10%. The rest 90% goes to the other possible outcomes. So he is never wrong

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[Cassius]

@OP My I have your wallet address for donation.

Cosmo doesn't share his address. Same reason he doesn't accept bets on his predictions. Because then you'd be able to follow the money and find out exactly how successful he's been.

[spazzdla]

Cosmo.. I am going to start following your posts :O! :O!

What do you think will happen if we go below $260?  I am debating setting a buy at $280/300

[spazzdla]

Cosmo.. I am going to start following your posts :O! :O!

What do you think will happen if we go below $260?  I am debating setting a buy at $280/300

You better pray we don't go to $260.

If we end up below $300, a lot of big farms will continue to unload their existing profits just to keep
operating, or close their operations.   This would cause a drop to below $100 or lower. The losses (electric bill) will be to big to handle.  This will create fundamental changes, probably irreversible changes.
Think 2011 drop 25->2.5 and ebay ads for 50-100 GPUs for sale.  

The difficulty suppose to adjust accordingly, but all this takes time and this would be a "real test"
for the bitcoin experiment.  Basically, the (Chinese) traders and the market would kill bitcoin by setting the price below the operating costs and keeping it there for long enough to kill the network.

No mining = no transactions = game over.  not only for bitcoin, game over for all cryptos.

So be careful what you wish for.  You better hope $400 is the bottom.

I do not want to see BTC drop below $400 lol!!

[Stinky_Pete]

So then all the small miners would become useful again, and Bitcoin can return to something properly decentralised.

[Bobsurplus]

$266 not going to happen!

[infofront]

So then all the small miners would become useful again, and Bitcoin can return to something properly decentralised.

I don't think so.  Small miners would be losing too if go below $300.
It would be easier to cover the loss with your own money, but how many miners would choose to
mine at a loss?  Large farms would react immediately, it is a big business after all.

But I guess the market will tell us very soon if we are going to $10K or $10.

PS. You want to kill the network, kill the price and the network will follow.
We need P2P exchanges now.  

If not enough people were willing to mine at a loss, difficulty would decrease til mining was profitable again. If bitcoin transactions were too slow, than perhaps one of the many altcoins with much faster transaction times and a decentralized mining system would become dominant.

[cosmofly]

@OP My I have your wallet address for donation.

Cosmo doesn't share his address. Same reason he doesn't accept bets on his predictions. Because then you'd be able to follow the money and find out exactly how successful he's been.

Wtf, my address is in my profile

[cosmofly]

Cosmo.. I am going to start following your posts :O! :O!

What do you think will happen if we go below $260?  I am debating setting a buy at $280/300

It will not go below $266

[ThirdRenaissance]

The difficulty suppose to adjust accordingly, but all this takes time and this would be a "real test"
for the bitcoin experiment.  Basically, the (Chinese) traders and the market would kill bitcoin by setting the price below the operating costs and keeping it there for long enough to kill the network.

No mining = no transactions = game over.  not only for bitcoin, game over for all cryptos.

So be careful what you wish for.  You better hope $400 is the bottom.

All the mining hardware that was profitable 6 months ago still exists, it didn't vanish and the price was much lower then while electricity was the same. Current hardware is even more power efficient. In other words if a functioning network could exist then, it can exist now, even if prices drop back to previous levels.

[cosmofly]

There is a larger number of trolls every time

Piglets bleeding

Also newbie accounts accusing me of using sock puppet accounts  

[infofront]

There is a larger number of trolls every time

Piglets bleeding

Also newbie accounts accusing me of using sock puppet accounts  

There are so many angry bagholders here.

[dropt]

It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.

[Cassius]

You better pray we don't go to $260.

If we end up below $300, a lot of big farms will continue to unload their existing profits just to keep
operating, or close their operations.   This would cause a drop to below $100 or lower. The losses (electric bill) will be to big to handle.  This will create fundamental changes, probably irreversible changes.
Think 2011 drop 25->2.5 and ebay ads for 50-100 GPUs for sale.  

The difficulty suppose to adjust accordingly, but all this takes time and this would be a "real test"
for the bitcoin experiment.  Basically, the (Chinese) traders and the market would kill bitcoin by setting the price below the operating costs and keeping it there for long enough to kill the network.

No mining = no transactions = game over.  not only for bitcoin, game over for all cryptos.

So be careful what you wish for.  You better hope $400 is the bottom.

That just isn't going to happen.
Most of the people on these boards have, what? A few hundred or thousand USD in bitcoin, maybe occasionally tens of thousands+? Cosmo has $20 his mom gave him for tidying his room.
The likes of Gavin Andressen have millions of their own and VC funding in bitcoin businesses. There's no way they'd let a few panicking speculators kill all that. They'll step in and stabilise the market, making a killing in the process at the panickers' expense.

[Cassius]

@OP My I have your wallet address for donation.

Cosmo doesn't share his address. Same reason he doesn't accept bets on his predictions. Because then you'd be able to follow the money and find out exactly how successful he's been.

Wtf, my address is in my profile

Blockchain: "No transactions found for this address, it has probably not been used on the network yet."

[Cassius]

It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.

I read some other miner saying $100 on a thread yesterday. Can't remember where though.

[dropt]

It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.

I read some other miner saying $100 on a thread yesterday. Can't remember where though.

It may have been me, as my cost per coin is ~$103.  However, you may be recalling another user who also posted the cost per coin at $100 too.  Sure, some have higher costs, and others lower.  Even after all my time lurking through the speculation forum it still amazes me at the frequency that people pull shit out of their ass and present it as fact, especially when it's people who have been here over two years and should seemingly know better.

[Cassius]

It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.

I read some other miner saying $100 on a thread yesterday. Can't remember where though.

It may have been me, as my cost per coin is ~$103.  However, you may be recalling another user who also posted the cost per coin at $100 too.  Sure, some have higher costs, and others lower.  Even after all my time lurking through the speculation forum it still amazes me at the frequency that people pull shit out of their ass and present it as fact, especially when it's people who have been here over two years and should seemingly know better.

Nice. What are you using?
Not into mining myself and I don't think now's the time to try, but the more I look at it the more I'm tempted.

[dropt]

It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

plug in, BFL minirig: 480GH/s, 2500W, 0.22 cents per kWh, electricity cost works out to about $13.20 for 0.04 btc. add another $4.5 for AC, or $17-18/day

You think 0.22/kWh is high?  The published rates in Canada (probably the same in US) are 0.06-0.12 but we are paying 0.22 to 0.25 after all taxes, transmission charges, service charges etc.

Every two weeks we get another 10-20% decrease in earnings, pushing the cost of mining per coin even higher.

Big farms might have better efficiency, lower power cost, but they have to include rent or depreciation, property taxes, other overhead of employees, insurance etc.  The cost per coin is around $300, IMHO.

If your cost with bitfuries or knc is lower, consider yourself lucky.

EDIT: updated the numbers

BFL? That explains your numbers...  The backbone of the hashing network is on 55nm or less.  Most predominantly KnC @ 28nm, Bitfury at 55nm, Bitmaintech @ 55nm, and Avalon @ 55nm.  Bitmine's A1 is getting pumped out of China's backdoor now as well which is at 28nm.  The worst of the bunch is at 2 J/GH and FWIW BFL's 65nm consumption is >6 J/GH.  So yes, 300$ per coin at current difficulty if the network was being run predominantly on BFL tech, which it isn't.  If you consider the increase in efficiency of modern gear over BFL's garbage then you'll end up at the ~$100 a coin noted by myself and others.

[dropt]

Nice. What are you using?
Not into mining myself and I don't think now's the time to try, but the more I look at it the more I'm tempted.

Multiple Bitmaintech S1's.  I wouldn't suggest now being the time to get involved, especially with the current state-of-affairs.  The Bitmaintech S1 is the only unit FS priced at a fixed BTC cost, however it's the least efficient of the current generation of hardware.  While you could potentially make your coin back buying one today, it's becoming less and less worth the risk.  All of the others are priced in USD, and as it stands you will likely not be able to mine more coins than you can purchase, dollar for dollar.

If you're looking into it, I'd wait until either a) a trend reversal occurs and the BTC/$ rate increases dramatically, or ASICMiner gets their 40nm out and in the hands of 3rd party developers.  Almost everything else is a losing bet given the way the units are priced and the current exchange rate.