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Author Topic: The rocket is secretly taking off! High 3.26, 20k BTC to $3.50 (up from $3.35)  (Read 5652 times)
notme
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December 19, 2011, 07:16:46 AM
 #21

What's good for evangelicals and merchants is good for speculators who are long.

Perpetually increasing prices is actually bad for evangelicals, because it'll cause a repeat of the summer bubble. Bitcoin becomes harder to accept when it undergoes such unhealthy bubbles periodically.

Perpetually decreasing prices is annoying for merchants.
Perpetually increasing prices is annoying for customers, which results in lower sales, which in turn causes headaches for the merchants.
Which is why I said stable prices are good for merchants.

When did I say anything about perpetually increasing or perpetually decreasing prices?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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JohnOliver
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December 19, 2011, 07:19:47 AM
 #22

What's good for evangelicals and merchants is good for speculators who are long.

Perpetually increasing prices is actually bad for evangelicals, because it'll cause a repeat of the summer bubble. Bitcoin becomes harder to accept when it undergoes such unhealthy bubbles periodically.

Perpetually decreasing prices is annoying for merchants.
Perpetually increasing prices is annoying for customers, which results in lower sales, which in turn causes headaches for the merchants.
Which is why I said stable prices are good for merchants.

When did I say anything about perpetually increasing or perpetually decreasing prices?

Sorry if I misunderstood but when you said "What's good for speculators who are long" I just assumed you meant perpetually increasing prices.
notme
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December 19, 2011, 07:28:38 AM
 #23

What's good for evangelicals and merchants is good for speculators who are long.

Perpetually increasing prices is actually bad for evangelicals, because it'll cause a repeat of the summer bubble. Bitcoin becomes harder to accept when it undergoes such unhealthy bubbles periodically.

Perpetually decreasing prices is annoying for merchants.
Perpetually increasing prices is annoying for customers, which results in lower sales, which in turn causes headaches for the merchants.
Which is why I said stable prices are good for merchants.

When did I say anything about perpetually increasing or perpetually decreasing prices?

Sorry if I misunderstood but when you said "What's good for speculators who are long" I just assumed you meant perpetually increasing prices.

I didn't say that either... but I digress.  I am long bitcoin in both ways: I hold bitcoins, and I am willing to hold that position "long" term.  Short term, I will sell into a rally or buy a dip to keep things liquid for those who have way more money and are in a bigger hurry, and of course, make a few bitcents.  But thanks for schooling me on bubbles Mr. I'm an expert after 11 days on the forums.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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JohnOliver
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December 19, 2011, 07:31:51 AM
 #24

What's good for evangelicals and merchants is good for speculators who are long.

Perpetually increasing prices is actually bad for evangelicals, because it'll cause a repeat of the summer bubble. Bitcoin becomes harder to accept when it undergoes such unhealthy bubbles periodically.

Perpetually decreasing prices is annoying for merchants.
Perpetually increasing prices is annoying for customers, which results in lower sales, which in turn causes headaches for the merchants.
Which is why I said stable prices are good for merchants.

When did I say anything about perpetually increasing or perpetually decreasing prices?

Sorry if I misunderstood but when you said "What's good for speculators who are long" I just assumed you meant perpetually increasing prices.

I didn't say that either... but I digress.  I am long bitcoin in both ways: I hold bitcoins, and I am willing to hold that position "long" term.  Short term, I will sell into a rally or buy a dip to keep things liquid for those who have way more money and are in a bigger hurry, and of course, make a few bitcents.  But thanks for schooling me on bubbles Mr. I'm an expert after 11 days on the forums.

Apologies again for the misunderstanding then. The attack on my low post count was uncalled for though.
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December 19, 2011, 07:37:15 AM
 #25

Sorry, I just get tired of hearing the same shit over and over.  Despite this account only being active since July, I've actually been around since February.  Yes mistakes were made, a bubble formed, and value was transferred from losers to winners.  However, I disagree that we will see a repeat of the summer bubble.  Just look at it on a weekly time scale and you'll see what a joke it was.  There's too much money to be made preventing it from bubbling, and much more legitimate volume this time around.  This time the greedy will learn patience and the fearful will learn resilience.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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fastandfurious
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December 19, 2011, 07:42:10 AM
 #26

Sorry, I just get tired of hearing the same shit over and over.  Despite this account only being active since July, I've actually been around since February.  Yes mistakes were made, a bubble formed, and value was transferred from losers to winners.  However, I disagree that we will see a repeat of the summer bubble.  Just look at it on a weekly time scale and you'll see what a joke it was.  There's too much money to be made preventing it from bubbling, and much more legitimate volume this time around.  This time the greedy will learn patience and the fearful will learn resilience.

They have learned patience through losses, but today the greed is coming back slowly. And as I see it, to soon. The inflation at 3.26 USD are probably not sustainable, and who ever that is selling over 3.20 USD knows this, maybe they have inside information from Mt.Gox, and they don't want to lose more money.
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December 19, 2011, 07:46:04 AM
 #27

Sorry, I just get tired of hearing the same shit over and over.  Despite this account only being active since July, I've actually been around since February.  Yes mistakes were made, a bubble formed, and value was transferred from losers to winners.  However, I disagree that we will see a repeat of the summer bubble.  Just look at it on a weekly time scale and you'll see what a joke it was.  There's too much money to be made preventing it from bubbling, and much more legitimate volume this time around.  This time the greedy will learn patience and the fearful will learn resilience.

I was talking about a purely hypothetical (not to mention impossible) situation where the price is perpetually increasing. Sorry for not making it more clear.
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December 19, 2011, 07:48:41 AM
 #28

Anyone that is buying in to this rally are now facing two very big enemies. The inflation (from the Bitcoin framework) and the manipulators that are starting to understand fundamentals. The manipulators are taking over this market. And they will probably soon understand that they also can make money by taking it down as well, before that they were super super optimists and just saw stable or up-trends in the price. But greed and power corrupts so maybe they are seeing the opportunities both ways now. Lets say that they also have inside information from Mt.Gox, then this market is totally corrupt. Good luck trading successfully.
notme
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December 19, 2011, 07:56:44 AM
 #29

Sorry, I just get tired of hearing the same shit over and over.  Despite this account only being active since July, I've actually been around since February.  Yes mistakes were made, a bubble formed, and value was transferred from losers to winners.  However, I disagree that we will see a repeat of the summer bubble.  Just look at it on a weekly time scale and you'll see what a joke it was.  There's too much money to be made preventing it from bubbling, and much more legitimate volume this time around.  This time the greedy will learn patience and the fearful will learn resilience.

I was talking about a purely hypothetical (not to mention impossible) situation where the price is perpetually increasing. Sorry for not making it more clear.

Oh well, than yes.  Hypothetically, perpetually increasing prices would cause a bubble repeat.  Also, once the realization sinks in that it is perpetually increasing, it will go vertical as people sell everything they don't need for survival for bitcoins.  Bitcoiners buy Manhattan from the natives for $160 trillion.  The natives are quite sore 1 year later when those greenbacks are worth a mere 2 BTC.  Then, people will only spend their bitcoins on necessities and BTC/USD prices will be irrelevant since all USD has been handed off to bagholders.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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finway
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December 19, 2011, 08:05:28 AM
 #30

If somebody shorted 100k, a small buy will trigger a big rally.

notme
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December 19, 2011, 08:06:45 AM
 #31

If somebody shorted 100k, a small buy could trigger a big rally.

FTFY

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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JohnOliver
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December 19, 2011, 08:09:39 AM
 #32

Sorry, I just get tired of hearing the same shit over and over.  Despite this account only being active since July, I've actually been around since February.  Yes mistakes were made, a bubble formed, and value was transferred from losers to winners.  However, I disagree that we will see a repeat of the summer bubble.  Just look at it on a weekly time scale and you'll see what a joke it was.  There's too much money to be made preventing it from bubbling, and much more legitimate volume this time around.  This time the greedy will learn patience and the fearful will learn resilience.

I was talking about a purely hypothetical (not to mention impossible) situation where the price is perpetually increasing. Sorry for not making it more clear.

Oh well, than yes.  Hypothetically, perpetually increasing prices would cause a bubble repeat.  Also, once the realization sinks in that it is perpetually increasing, it will go vertical as people sell everything they don't need for survival for bitcoins.  Bitcoiners buy Manhattan from the natives for $160 trillion.  The natives are quite sore 1 year later when those greenbacks are worth a mere 2 BTC.  Then, people will only spend their bitcoins on necessities and BTC/USD prices will be irrelevant since all USD has been handed off to bagholders.

We are actually on the same page then.

I'll try to re-iterate my point again. Hopefully I can be more clear this time.

There are 4 possible scenarios:
1. Stable prices
2. Fluctuations
3. Perpetual increase
4. Perpetual decrease

#2 is bad for evangelicals because people are afraid of uncertainties.
#3 is bad for evangelicals because of the reason you mentioned above.
#4 is bad for evangelicals because people don't want to lose their money.

Which leaves #1, the best future for bitcoin evangelism.
notme
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December 19, 2011, 08:16:02 AM
 #33

We are actually on the same page then.

I'll try to re-iterate my point again. Hopefully I can be more clear this time.

There are 4 possible scenarios:
1. Stable prices
2. Fluctuations
3. Perpetual increase
4. Perpetual decrease

#2 is bad for evangelicals because people are afraid of uncertainties.
#3 is bad for evangelicals because of the reason you mentioned above.
#4 is bad for evangelicals because people don't want to lose their money.

Which leaves #1, the best future for bitcoin evangelism.

Agreed, however, #3 and #4 don't exist in reality, so I'll prune them from my scenario list.  I'm doing my best to reduce #2 leading to #1, as are many others.  You don't want to strangle the price, but you want to keep fear and greed bounded so people make trades from a rational basis.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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December 19, 2011, 09:27:33 AM
 #34

I think that the bitcoin market is going to be MUCH more wise going into a big rally a 2nd time...  There is so-many people who are willing to sell and keep the price stable now.

The big rally up to 32 was a big testing ground...  Now we have been there we know what to expect.

A healthy (new) market may make an mistake (the bubble).  However it doesn’t make the same mistake twice.

One off NP-Hard.
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December 19, 2011, 10:02:38 AM
 #35

Anyone that is buying in to this rally are now facing two very big enemies. The inflation (from the Bitcoin framework) and the manipulators that are starting to understand fundamentals. The manipulators are taking over this market. And they will probably soon understand that they also can make money by taking it down as well, before that they were super super optimists and just saw stable or up-trends in the price. But greed and power corrupts so maybe they are seeing the opportunities both ways now. Lets say that they also have inside information from Mt.Gox, then this market is totally corrupt. Good luck trading successfully.
Back in August the inflation pressure argument was plausible and I saved a lot of money following it - now what you don't take into account is that there is quite a bit of chance that bitcoin will level up.
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December 19, 2011, 10:27:43 AM
 #36

I would also like to bring Bitcoinica to the attention. Don't underestimate the volume it trades with.

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December 19, 2011, 12:27:30 PM
 #37

Well, well...

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December 19, 2011, 12:30:05 PM
 #38

Yes.

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December 19, 2011, 12:35:54 PM
 #39

The tired shuttle image seems too... majestic for bitcoin.  A prototype spacecraft seems more appropriate:

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December 19, 2011, 12:36:58 PM
 #40

The tired shuttle image seems too... majestic for bitcoin.  A prototype spacecraft seems more appropriate:



That's much better.
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