Bookmaker's predictive mistakes.

[uneng]

Let's say bookmakers do predictive mistakes. That is something which rarely happens, but we still have to consider this possibility as it's made by humans, and humans aren't perfect on their actions and performances.

However, if you wait a bookmaker to commit a lapse, you will have a hard time finding gambling matches to bet on, because as we know, it rarely happens. You will spend a long time searching for a bet which bookmakers didn't manage to set accurate odds, and in the end it still doesn't guarantee you are going to win the bet, anyway.

If you manage to find a good opportunity you think bookmakers made a mistake, go for it, but don't put a lot of effort on searching for it. I guess you will regret a lot after you concluded you have wasted your time doing this. Precious time you could have used for more important and rewarding matters.

[Nrcewker]

I don’t think trusted bookmakers make mistakes, and that too in big events. Yes, if it is low-level tournaments, then there is a slight possibility that the bookmakers might make a mistake. But in the case of high leagues, the odds providers are very cautious about the odds, and we generally don’t see any chance here. Moreover, if you find the loophole in the odds and make profits, then many times the bookmakers reject your bets and might block your account with your hard-earned money.

[MarvinHagler]

It is very rare. The biggest bookmakers have hundreds of analysts and traders working for them,

[Zigabel]

I don't think it's actually a mistake or miscalculation because the business of gambling is a business that's filled with so much uncertainties except for games that are been owned and controlled by the casinos where they have the whole power to manipulate the results in their own favour. Most times, the casinos makes all those odds based on the perceived strength of the teams with the mind that their predictions work in an ideal situation but as nature may have it, at some point, things can turn around in the field of play and that can make the game results come out otherwise and it still doesn't mean that they were totally worng, just like the gambler, the book makers are also predicting not with an utmost certainty. In some cases or even most cases it's usually that the bookmakers predictions aren't totally wrong just like that of the gambler and the only advantage a gambler can get is to making sure they get as more stats as they can and applying risk management, they can make the best available pick.

[Gozie51]

Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.

Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.

You are right, bookmarkers make mistake once a while and if they do they would noticed it fast and fixed the mistake. It was in the year 2020 or there about ans I was in the betting shop and such thing happened and many people won from the mistake that day. And within some hours the problem was fixed. But we don't have to look for bookmarkers mistakes instead play along and try our lucks. Bookmarkers in this days are very much careful in the arrangement of games. So it is very difficult to see such mistakes. But if happened, then gamblers will use the opportunity to win odds.

If I could recollect a little, I think that happened in Scottish lead then between Rangers but I can't seem to remember the opponent. So it happened that it seem the bookmakers realised something was wrong with the way bettors were hitting on the game and staking hugely on it with DNB and other options, they pulled it down after some hours but then smart gamblers had already taken the advantage on the game. It eventually happened that most lucky bettors won and cashed out from it even though some betting companies didn't agree to pay some player full potential winning, claiming the game was pulled down before it started. So it is quite possible for bookmakers to make such mistake but it is very rare.

[Gozie51]

Bookmakers mistake is what comes once after a long while. I have noticed that a long time ago maybe 4 years back or three where a club that was better was given higher odds than the less favourable club and then bettors noticed it and where betting on it but it was letter pulled down when it was realized and I guess those early stakers got the advantage, though I have forgotten the names of the clubs for now.

Yes they make mistakes but the very noticeable ones or obvious ones don't happen all the time. I is difficult to get those common mistakes in odds because you would have to go through many options to identify such.

You are right, bookmarkers make mistake once a while and if they do they would noticed it fast and fixed the mistake. It was in the year 2020 or there about ans I was in the betting shop and such thing happened and many people won from the mistake that day. And within some hours the problem was fixed. But we don't have to look for bookmarkers mistakes instead play along and try our lucks. Bookmarkers in this days are very much careful in the arrangement of games. So it is very difficult to see such mistakes. But if happened, then gamblers will use the opportunity to win odds.

If I could recollect a little, I think that happened in Scottish lead then between Rangers but I can't seem to remember the opponent. So it happened that it seem the bookmakers realised something was wrong with the way bettors were hitting on the game and staking hugely on it with DNB and other options, they pulled it down after some hours but then smart gamblers had already taken the advantage on the game. It eventually happened that most lucky bettors won and cashed out from it even though some betting companies didn't agree to pay some player full potential winning, claiming the game was pulled down before it started. So it is quite possible for bookmakers to make such mistake but it is very rare.

Edit: Yes I got the information, that match was between Rangers vs Cowdenbeath , it ended 5-1 in favour of Rangers who was mistakenly given above 5 odds against 1+ odd and they had all stats favouring them including head to head. That was in 10 Jan. 2016.

[Wexnident]

~

Wouldn't really say say it's a mistake? A mistake is when there's a massively big difference between the odds that they wanted to provide towards the real one. That's a mistake. If you're talking about when the higher odds lose to the lower odds player, odds have never been a basis 100% for a match. It just shows that there's a big difference between the two that probably 9 out of 10 games (or something, depending on the odds), the higher odds team would win.

I guess you can say this is just an extension of arbitrage but hell in most cases there's really a minimal difference with it. I'd say it's honestly rare for them to make a real "mistake" since, well, that's what they're relying on a living for.

[ralle14]

1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?

I want to say more than we expect, but it mostly depends on the league or sports because the bigger and more competitive ones like the EURO Championship, can easily make you fall into their trap odds.

They also make frequent mistakes during the early portions of the season, and i've been saying it before, they don't mind making mistakes because they use those to make their odds more accurate.

2. What is his most common mistake?

One of the many mistakes I can recall is probably them setting favored odds on teams that used to dominate the previous seasons and taking all the time they needed to correct the odds even though the team was showing signs of regression halfway through the season.

4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?

Nope, as you place more bets, the more you'll understand why they've made those mistakes.

5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?

One of them is whenever there's an unexpected trend between specific matches.

6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?

I've mentioned it earlier, mistakes help them improve.

[Yaunfitda]

Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.

I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.

They do make mistakes, I have seen this countless times. Have had bets/lines cancelled for "wrong odds" several times. Always very annoying when the bookmaker makes the mistake and the player pays the price. If I as a player accidentally bet too much or on the wrong side for example they won't let you cancel it, even if you contact the support seconds after and the game doesn't start for another 5 hours.

It's very rare though that they do make mistakes, haven't seen one, but I think casinos will have to find a way to give it back to the gamblers. And since gambling is a billion dollar business, this odd makers are very very careful of releasing their odds and for sure they have a lot of consultants and analytics to make the correct odds. So for me, there is no predictive mistakes, it's seldom to happen and it they did, they are going to quickly correct that mistakes have the adjustment and give the gamblers the money as a refund if they do make that mistakes. And as a gamblers, we shouldn't take advantage of casino having this wrong odds to be honest as again, sooner or later they will have to find it out even if it is late and make the necessary corrections.

[alegotardo]

Let's discuss bookmakers' predictive mistakes , because that's where we can make money. In other words, our task as players is not just to create the correct forecast and bet money on it. No, our task is to be more right than the bookmaker. But how can we be more right than the bookmaker? The only way we can win is if the bookmaker makes a mistake, and we take advantage of it. I would like to explain in more detail what I mean by bookmaker errors: these are prediction errors. That is, when your bookmaker miscalculated the odds and your bet on an outsider, for example, worked and brought you a big profit at a high odds.

To this day, I have not found any errors in the bookmakers that could benefit me in any way.

Perhaps this should occur for players who have a very high betting frequency, because although I play every week, I do not play every day and much less spend hours playing.

My opinion is that the profits are in the small details: Knowing how to control the bankroll, betting on the odds most of the time, but following your instinct when you believe that an "unlikely" team or player has a chance of winning... it is in these moments, when you bet against the predictions of the bookmaker and the majority of players, that you can obtain the best profits.

[Julien_Olynpic]

I would consider a bookmaker's mistake to be a situation in which a player or team with low chances of winning (and therefore high odds of winning) wins and the bookmaker is forced to pay a large winnings to the winner. I can’t prove this very clearly, but it seems to me that this situation happens quite often. In general, if we look at those rare players in sports betting who are consistently profitable in the long term, we will understand that they certainly make money, including from the bookmaker’s mistakes. But during the discussion, I realized that we understand bookmaker mistakes incorrectly. Like it's something dramatic. No, I consider any incorrectly calculated odds to be a mistake.

[Natalim]

Bookmakers don't make mistakes because they set lines for both sides. If bettors put a lot of money on one side, bookmakers are willing to move the line on the other to attract bets and balance the action. Oddsmakers know their job very well as they are experts in that field and have already anticipated how people will react when they release the betting lines.

I think this discussion should focus on sports bettors' predictive mistakes, because there is smart money in sports and public bets based on public sentiment.

They do make mistakes, I have seen this countless times. Have had bets/lines cancelled for "wrong odds" several times. Always very annoying when the bookmaker makes the mistake and the player pays the price. If I as a player accidentally bet too much or on the wrong side for example they won't let you cancel it, even if you contact the support seconds after and the game doesn't start for another 5 hours.

If the odds are wrong, they should be canceled. This kind of mistake is inevitable, but this is not the kind of mistake I'm referring to. It's a normal mistake that we think we can take advantage of with the sportsbook. In general, I still believe they won't make mistakes that would lead to big losses. Otherwise, sportsbooks wouldn't become a billion-dollar industry.

[maydna]

That will depends on the bookmarker. If they have a good skills, they will not make a wrong prediction so they can wins. If their skills not high, they will make a wrong prediction although they can also wins. But I don't thinks that a bookmarker will makes a wrong prediction too often because that can makes their business bankrupt. If they found one or more wrong prediction, they will search other people who can have a high skills in analyzing so they can back to wins the match. They will not like when their prediction is wrong so they will fixing that matters.

[zuzie]

I think it is impossible for bookies to make mistakes like you said above because bookies will do everything they can to always be lucky and away from losses.
Bookies must have specifically designed tricks or strategies to minimize big losses on their gambling platforms. And I think bookies are typical of smart and clever people from gamblers because bookies will not want to give up just like that, they have to try to stay profitable and losses will only apply to gamblers.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

3. Why do high rates work?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

The fact that a high odds which was least expected win at the end of the match is not a mistake, that's gambling for you, because in gambling anything is possible, and I don't see anyway why that should be regarded as error, because we have also had scenarios where odds like 1.10 to 1.30 also fail to play when gambled upon. So in that case who are you to blame? Or are you going to call that gamblers error? However, if only you have been opportuned to compare sport games across different casinos, you will notice that it's odds are always either the same or not having big differences, as it seems they are always a product of a global general booker who seems to analyze games and allocate odds according to its current and previous performance.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Bookmarkers usually have dozens of tasks to do because the odds of different matches are always changing every minute, and since those bookmakers are humans too, they are not bound to make mistakes most of the time but since they are professionals, they don't make the mistake of wrong odds computation frequently. Bookmaker mistakes are often predicted by some experienced gamblers, and once any error is detected, they take advantage immediately. 

[Viscore]

Bookmaker mistakes are often predicted by some experienced gamblers, and once any error is detected, they take advantage immediately. 

I don't know what kind of errors they can take advantage of when bookmakers make sure that they do their job well. Just imagine, if they make mistakes and cater to many sportsbooks, it would be a big hit on their reputation and they would eventually struggle. So it's a mistake that cannot happen for them to remain in business. There are times when the odds are wrong, but they can revert or correct it as it has a basis or justification. Other than that, I don't see any kind of mistake that is costly on their part.

[rahmad2nd]

Interesting, to be honest it never crossed my mind about Bookmaker betting prediction errors. as I understand, maybe I was wrong all this time, but let me also share my thoughts. bookies simply provide bettors with a series of options to choose from. in a match, fight or something like that, usually the bookie will provide various options for someone to choose their bet. whatever the type of bet, we are certainly given the option to choose according to our understanding or the results of our research and analysis. although it does not rule out the possibility that there was a mistake made by the Bookmaker. It's just that it never occurred to me to look for mistakes made by gambling bookies.

This is interesting, but I doubt if the probability of the bookie's error is always presented. I mean, there could be several times when the bookie makes a mistake. however, how big the probability is. that's why up until now I've never looked into ideas like the ones you put forward, we could use them as research material or seek new knowledge, but I'm still hesitant to experiment. the reason is, we at least have a small idea of ​​how gambling bookies work. however, it does not rule out the possibility that some other members have knowledge related to this discussion.

[redsun114]

Bookmakers don't make mistakes very often, so those who are chasing those mistakes need to know that it's going to be a long and time-consuming process and they should focus on their bets and their research rather than look for bookmakers' mistakes.

One can indeed make good money if a bookmaker makes a mistake and gives a better team higher odds and a team with lower stats and abilities low odds, but this happens maybe a few times in a year or so because I haven't seen this happening a lot throughout my sports betting career.

However, sometimes, we may earn good profit if we bet against the bookmaker, which means that we bet on higher odds despite the side being less favourable and it works, but not all the time.

[bitbollo]

1. How often is a bookmaker wrong?

If you count as +/- @1.05 up to @1.15 I think there are tons of errors.
Bigger errors are really hard. There is a sort of consensus between bookmakers. If you don't agree.. use an exchange and ask your price.
Sometimes there are real errors but... if too big "the bug" they can also not pay your win.

2. What is his most common mistake?

They can go wrong for a minus part.

3. Why do high rates work?

If you mean "high odds" there is a psichologycal aspect to be taken in account. It's looking different @3 vs @10 ...

4. Are bookmaker mistakes always impossible to predict?

There are some "small" errors they can made. But if these become "bigger" or avoid to exploit high amount of money are just fixed or not awarded.

5. What does the bookmaker overestimate and underestimate (incorrectly estimate)?

In football, they can not take in account the time wasted during the match...

6. Why does a bookmaker make mistakes?

If gambling was an exact science, no one could be able to offer such services. How afford someone able to win any bet? Of course bookmaker have also a different money making system that it's not rely only on "Luck".

7. How can a bookmaker follow the herd reflex of other bookmakers?
(Errors in bookmakers copying odds from each other).

Technically bookmakers can hedge their position by using other bookmakers or brokers or just a betting exchange.
But as said before, gambling is not their business. I mean, they are not gambling the money, it's like offering a service and earning a kind of RTP for each bet. Well, rare events can lead to a "jackpot" for bookmaker, but it's well balanced by the money outflow.