After months of constantly checking the mempool, calculating fees, waiting for weekends, using coin control to save $2-3 on each tx, finally I can see the light, fees are down to just 6 sat/vb, and finally seems like there is no more spam! Not even these market swing haven't pushed people to move coins from and to exchanges, the mempool will be hopeful soon drained and we can finally not care anymore about sending even a few tens of dollars worth of BTC, consolidate our inputs with pennies and not having stuck funds cause somebody was a cheap bastard!

6sat/vb or 50 cents for a simple tx is normal now, will we see it 6 times cheaper?

How long do you think it will take to reach this target? Days, weeks, months?
I'm so optimistic I will say two weekends from now!

Bear market is mostly boring for most of us and demands to purchase Bitcoin, trade it or move it in bear market is usually significantly lower than in bull market. What you said is true but I bet that except if you plan to wait for bear market to purchase more bitcoin or fraction of bitcoin, you will less likely want to see a bear market.

Zoom out and see Bitcoin mempools recent years, since 2017

• https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC%20(default%20mempool),all,weight

OP can read my thread and apply some tips if see fit.

• Minimize your transaction fee with Electrum wallet

ATH or not, there are always Bitcoin transactions in Bitcoin blocks except barely seen empty blocks.

If there is no transaction in many Bitcoin blocks, what does it mean?
The Bitcoin blockchain, at that time, is more like a dead blockchain similarly to many altcoin blockchains.

Fortunately, we don't see it on Bitcoin blockchains and your logic is broken. People have many reasons to move their bitcoins and no reasons why they should not move their bitcoins around ATH price range.

I agree. I also think we will see 1 Sat/vB soon!!

Look at transactions from feebuddy  now


Nobody can say when, but it is likely we will see 1 sat vB within some months from now

The thing is the bitcoin transaction fee is definitely not something anyone can actually predict when it will go up or come down it is just like the price itself, everything is just mere speculation and nothing more to me, you should always use the lower fees when it’s there.

Concerning the chart I think what Solosanz wanted to point out is that there were high fees during the period of November last year until March this year, which was the same period we had the price of bitcoin to be very bullish and also got a new all time high, so logically it could be that people were selling off their profits. But to me that was just coincidental although during bull period there is high percentage of greed which means high movement of coins but this period of time we are talking was definitely caused by the ordinal inscription scams, so it was just coincidental then and nothing to do with the bullish price movements

Bitcoin price isn’t in anyway correlated with the fees, it was just a speculation that Solosanz made that probably it could go up again when bulls set in. My advice is use this period well and don’t wait for lower fees, you never might know when the network spammers could come back again

easier methods would be to get all wallet defaults to increment in bumps of 1sat/kb instead of current defaults that increment in larger amounts

for instance
a wallet that bumbs in 1sat/b would see a 226byte tx jump from 226sat to 452sat just in one increment
however doing 1sat/kb would see a 226byte tx jump from 226sat to 227sat in just one increment

its like auctions
imagine a bidding war that starts at $50 but each bidder screams out $150, $250, $350.. instead of $52, $54, $56

the larger the bump, the faster the average fee jumps to stupidly high numbers
the smaller the bump, the less the average fee jumps to stupidly high numbers

Just because fees are lower than months ago at the peak of the spam attack, it doesn't mean the attack itself has stopped. When looking at the mempool chart at a longer period like 2 weeks[1] I still see a persistent attack going on that is filling the blocks.
Some people are still abusing the hell out of the protocol and are injecting junk into the chain[2] using different methods.

Can we go back to 1 sat/vb? It's hard to predict as long as the spam/Ordinals family of attacks are not stopped. But it is not impossible.

[1] https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,2w,weight
[2] https://mempool.space/tx/c605f1c28813b85e76a6f9abaaa4002a51792a0244addbfe13624761ba128173

Because they didn't expect Bitcoin would create new ATH before halving, people were expect the peak of Bitcoin around near end of this year or beginning in the next year.

ATH will trigger higher fees, but at that time ordinals were spamming the mempool. If there were no ordinals, I believe March 2024 should be the peak at that time.


https://dune.com/dgtl_assets/bitcoin-ordinals-analysis

However, the good news is the fees keep going down, now you can send transaction with 5sat/vbyte.

Every halving people make the same claim and every cycle we only see hashrate rising since miners are making more money than you think.

Wrong. The goal of Bitcoin has always been to create a decentralized payment system.

If you want adoption to grow and Bitcoin not to be replaced by something else (and die) you should wish bitcoin remains usable. That requires low fees and no spam attacks exploiting the protocol.

Your statement is still wrong.  The goal of Bitcoin was never to have more expensive Transactions with time.  This was a problem that came up with time, not a goal.

How did Lightning Network fail?  Because it did not bring enough Bitcoin users to be part of it until today?  Bitcoin is still pretty hard to learn, Lightning makes things even more complicated in my opinion.  This does not make Lightning a failure.  It was more of an experiment anyway.  Bitcoin is an experiment itself.

You are free to contribute to Bitcoin at any given time if you think it is better than wishing.  Why are you not contributing and solving the known issues?  Many of us only wish because we do not possess the skills and knowledge to solve issues, even if we knew what the solution was.  From speaking an idea to writing the right lines of code to solve the problems AND have everybody else agree with your suggested changes, it is a long road.