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Author Topic: 1.90 odds in sports gives you 50% chance fo winning.  (Read 1293 times)
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August 10, 2024, 10:07:21 AM
 #21

There is a hidden ToS rule that every casino has: You are not allowed to beat the house.

As long as you accept this reality and still play, everybody will be happy. If you can’t take that and try to win either by cheating or fooling their algo; sooner or later they will lock your account.
What I think is that the gambling site will look for a way to make sure the gamblers still lose without blocking his account. Gambling sites learn from people. If they see that people are winning more with one of their selections, they make amendment in a way that gamblers will later be losing. That is just how they operate. To look for ways most gamblers will lose. If gamblers are making money, gambling business will collapse.

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August 10, 2024, 11:26:09 AM
 #22

There is a hidden ToS rule that every casino has: You are not allowed to beat the house.

As long as you accept this reality and still play, everybody will be happy. If you can’t take that and try to win either by cheating or fooling their algo; sooner or later they will lock your account.
What I think is that the gambling site will look for a way to make sure the gamblers still lose without blocking his account. Gambling sites learn from people. If they see that people are winning more with one of their selections, they make amendment in a way that gamblers will later be losing. That is just how they operate. To look for ways most gamblers will lose. If gamblers are making money, gambling business will collapse.
What kind of amendments will they make? This isn’t a casino where they control the game; it’s sports betting where games are broadcast live, and everyone can see. The odds offered are also similar to those offered by other sportsbook, so I’m curious how they’ll amend things to make it in their favor?

 
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August 10, 2024, 12:03:35 PM
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 #23

This is not accurate. The 1.90 is given to you by the house when it calculates that there is a 50% probability that you will win. Those calculations are not exact. It is not like in roulette that if you play red or black you have a 47.37% chance of winning (in American roulette). That's exact.


Probability in sports betting is not like in roulette, where the odds are based on fixed probabilities. In sports betting, the odds are merely predictions set by bookmakers, which means they can sometimes be over- or undervalued.

May I know why you are quoting me? In the first part you repeat what I said, and in the second part you seem to want to dispute what I said by stating something false.

Where in that part are you referring to as "something false"? You don't agree that odds can sometimes be overvalued or undervalued?

Sticking with 1.90 odds gives you a disadvantage of 10% every time you bet, so your winning chance should be 60% or more to make a profit, assuming you manage your bankroll effectively.

It definitely does not give you a 10% disadvantage in each bet.

What I understood is that when spreads are presented like Team A +5 vs. Team B -5 and both have odds of 1.90, you're effectively losing 10% because you'll only get 90% in return. Assuming this is a 50-50 chance, like a heads-or-tails game, where you're only paid 90% every time you win, there's no way you can come out ahead in the long run.

You're right in specifying that a 53% win rate is needed for 1.90 odds to be profitable, but I was just referencing the 60% mentioned in the OP for the sake of discussion.

 
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August 10, 2024, 12:46:21 PM
 #24

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

Smaller odds indicate that your chances of winning are also stronger. Can using this method make you successful in the long term? of course, if luck is always on your side, the problem with gambling is about being lucky and not, look at how Argentina got such small odds when they faced Saudi Arabia in WC 2022, what was the result of the match? Argentina lost 1 - 2 to Saudi Arabia in that match.

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August 10, 2024, 01:17:10 PM
 #25

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
One thing we should all know about gambling is that winning is never a permanent assurance, as it is what comes by luck, because for the fact that you were able to win with a odd of 1.90 or less, it doesn't mean you will always win, because I have seen many scenarios whereby people lose bet of odds 1.30 and even 1.10, and likewise I have also seen the reverse of people also winning games of high odds such as 5 to 10 odds as a result of luck and an addiction of skills. Hence, while gambling with odds of 1.9 or below, we should always bear in mind that we have 60% of chance to win and also 40% of chance to also lose our bet, which is a more reason why we all need to gamble responsibly.

 
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August 10, 2024, 01:29:50 PM
 #26

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?


Everyone has different targets and strategies in sports betting ,some people aim to get 2 odds or probably lower than that on a weekly or daily basis, the lower the odds the chances of it playing out is quite high but this doesn't guarantee a hundred percent successful outcome. I have played single games lower than 1.50 odds that turned out to be unsuccessful. Following this kind of strategy can be quite helpful but you can't always have winning streaks
even though sometimes we are very sure to win with smaller Odds, but indeed sports betting is not always predictable. gamblers who are very sure of their bets sometimes forget something their bets on small Odds will make a small return. so they hastily increase the bet which also increases the risk.
you are right, the strategy of betting on smaller Odds may increase the chances of winning. but not always and rarely will get a winning streak.

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August 10, 2024, 01:32:59 PM
 #27

Even if we suppose that the chances of winning is exactly 50%, which aren't, if you take into account the house edge, it will still not mean that if you place 20 bets, 10 will be victorious and the other 10 will be losses. That's not how probabilities work, and you'll eventually run out of money if you're placing bets with that mindset. Even if you lower the odds, thus, increase your winning percentage, you still won't be able to replicate what statistically may sound possible, in real life.

 
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August 10, 2024, 01:43:29 PM
 #28

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?

Definitely not gonna be profitable in the long run since 10% house edge is too huge to beat in long term. It’s better to play slot games rather than play with consistent 10% house edge since most of the slot games offer 4% or lower house edge if we are just talking about long term betting.

But ofc this varies on the skills of the gamblers on sports betting but assuming your hypothetical scenario which is just betting with 50/50 chance bet then I doubt this will be good in the long run.

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August 10, 2024, 01:52:40 PM
 #29

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
Gambling is based on luck if you are lucky you can win regularly but if your luck is bad you can lose at 1.1 odds. no one can guarantee gambling winnings. Many people use odds of 1.1 or less as a sure bet, but even here there is risk.  So I don't think anyone can have long term success with 1.9 Odd.  When you bet on gambling you must be able to afford to lose that amount of bet money and accept it freely. no one can give you a guaranteed winning tip on this. so you have to decide on your own responsibility. But one thing I can say is that the less odds you use, the more chances you have of winning











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August 10, 2024, 02:00:16 PM
 #30

That means the house have a 10% house edge, that's a huge Fee to place a bet and a terrible idea. Casinos give the rules but are the gamblers who decide if betting or not.

Win in the long run betting on those odds isn't easy because sports are weird, there are too many factors that can change the game result, and if the odds are close to x2 that means the 2 teams have almost the same chance, and that way your chance to win is the same than flip a coin and win.

My recommendation has always been to bet on the underdog, that way if you win you will walk away with some nice profit bigger than x2.

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August 10, 2024, 02:05:51 PM
 #31

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
Gambling is based on luck if you are lucky you can win regularly but if your luck is bad you can lose at 1.1 odds. no one can guarantee gambling winnings. Many people use odds of 1.1 or less as a sure bet, but even here there is risk.  So I don't think anyone can have long term success with 1.9 Odd.  When you bet on gambling you must be able to afford to lose that amount of bet money and accept it freely. no one can give you a guaranteed winning tip on this. so you have to decide on your own responsibility. But one thing I can say is that the less odds you use, the more chances you have of winning

It’s different if we talk about sports betting since there’s a sports analysis which you can compare to technical analysis on trading that improved the winning rate of bets depending on your skills.

Luck is indeed a huge factor on sports betting but skills can improve your winning rate without relying that much on luck. There’s some successful sports bettor that manage to have a high win rate with their bets through their analysis skills.

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August 10, 2024, 02:06:32 PM
 #32

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
There are no guarantees, but the hope of opportunity is there, it all comes back to the game on the field, luck, in general bid A is 3.10 and for bid B 1.90 the possibility of winning is there, but make no mistake these factors can turn around in a matter of seconds, because of field factors and sports games, it can change instantly. A can go down to A 1.10 if it leads to victory and vice versa, B 1.90 can go up to 4.50 or even higher.

For this reason, if you bet in the sports arena, don't focus on Odds 3.10 x 1.90, focus on certain sports teams or clubs, look at the odds during their bets and also the players, and also other analysis that ensures you can win.

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August 10, 2024, 02:13:07 PM
 #33

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
My maximum tolerance when it comes to the odds on which i would really be that interested or making up some considerations for me to make bet would really be having that 1.50x and going lower with that
isnt something that i couldnt bare up with the risks involved or simply its not really just that worth on the money that you are betting on in towards the amount that you would really be able to obtain or earn
on the moment that you do win.

We've seen recently this thread too.
Gambler Loses 1.4 million USD in a bet with lower than 1.01 odds!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5435885.0

So who would really be the ones will really be that liking on taking up such bet on a 1.01? It might really that sound absurd but there are really those
people or bettors who would really be actually considering out such bet as if they are really that so sure that they could be able to hit it up. Also, we do really indeed have that 50% of winning
chance yet results could really be just that two and you would really be that only choosing up the match winner not unless if you do bet up for some other lines then it would really be
that dividing up on the risks on which it would really be depending into your own choice.

Any deductions or edge's then it would really be just that normal yet they are running up a business so it would really be that just that a common approach.
If you cant be able to bare up with those deductions then you do have the choice whether you would really be that proceeding or skipping out.
Confidence would really be that totally depending into someones level which would really vary into each individual.

R


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August 10, 2024, 02:36:12 PM
 #34

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
There is no guarantee that choosing 1.90 or lower will increase your chances of winning to 50%,  gambling is a game of probability, and your confidence should be built on the strategy you are deploying not on the odds, because odds are like straps set up to cut you out, if you decide to follow it entirely without proper vetting. However in a long run, you can by chance win with those odds, but you shouldn't be settling down on them, as winning odds are not always constant.











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August 10, 2024, 04:02:31 PM
 #35

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
This is not sustainable on the long run since the chances of succes and failure are equal. It will be a matter of time before you get drained. To be profitable, you need at least odds of at least 3. This will make it possible to remain profitable even with the 50% win rate. I know some people are arguing that 2.0 odds is the right number, unfortunately, that will be like moving round the same cycle. For instance, you place ten $50 bets of 2 odds each and at the end you win five bets, this will give a total bet amount of $500, and total winning of $500 which is what I mean by turning round the same circle.
 

R


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August 10, 2024, 04:31:28 PM
 #36

Win win win, yes. 1.90 gives you a little edge you may think, but in sports betting, that odd is already a good multiplier when joined with other games and staked, but I've my reservations on staking such odds alone because you'll have to increase your staking power in order to see some kind of a tangible profit, and what happens when you loose, you lose big.

I think there's more impact in losing than winning with such low odds in a single stake, if we go down to our calculations, possibly I stake $1000 on a 1.90 odds with a possibility of winning $900 and also at the same time a possibility of losing the $1000. So you see, the loss is greater than the amount tho be gained and that's why I love combining more games to get a good figure to go with a lower stake.

Winning is never assured, so you don't throw it all in at once.











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August 10, 2024, 07:05:31 PM
 #37

I would say a 50 percent chance of winning with such odds is difficult. Moreover, if one bets on the same odds for a long period of time, there is doubt as to whether he will be able to increase his winnings there. I have doubts about whether the bet will be 50 percent in 50-50 positions. We have even seen many instances where even with odds of 1.10 cents the bet is not guaranteed to win and having 1.90 odds means there is a 50 percent chance that I will never be able to secure my bet. The lower the odds in gambling, the higher the chance of winning, but there is no guarantee. The outcome may change at any time.

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August 10, 2024, 09:45:03 PM
Last edit: August 11, 2024, 03:16:53 PM by Saint-loup
 #38

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
No, you're wrong 1.90 in decimal odds for 50% winning chances doesn't give a 10% edge to the house (or to the bookmaker here). That's what Freebitcoin is offering for its dice game for example, it's only 5% HE actually.
And since there are 2 outcomes (one for winning, the other for losing), you only need to overcome half of this house edge to not lose money.  

EV = 1.90 x 50% - 1= -0.05 = -5%



In order to not lose money you need to have an EV >= 0

EV = 1.90 x WC - 1 >= 0
=> WC >= 1 / 1.90
   WC >= 0.526 = 52.6%


It means you will make profits if you win more than 52.6% of times bets with 1.90 odds.


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August 10, 2024, 10:05:25 PM
 #39

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?

Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
Winning always remains a thing of luck mostly when it's gambling, if it's casino games, forget it, you can almost never out weigh the house but to hope you get a better chance some day but literally the house has got almost 70% edge most of the times and they give you a chance and not you giving them na edge, I know talking certain risk at times may look like giving them the edge but mostly they have got the edge most times.

No odds guarantees a win or a loss, they are just luck based most of the times, this is what I always keep in mind before placing a bet and for me it's been the reality. Even with top skill you still loose some times. The reason some persons take certain risk with so much confidence on their side believing they will win is mainly because of history.

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August 10, 2024, 11:01:01 PM
 #40

So if you keep choosing odds of 1.90 or lower with a 50% chance of winning, do you think you can win in the long run? This is like giving the house an edge of 10%, and that's too much to give, yet we are too confident in winning. Are we being realistic here, or are we just too confident in our skills that we believe we can win 60% of the time?
it's definitely gonna cut it most of the times as smaller odds are likely to win against bigger odds... But all the same, when the selections are more than 1, the probability of winning decreases from 85% to atleast 67% ... That's just enough to cut most of tickets and trash them!
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Are there any gamblers here which are betting with those kinds of odds that has already achieve a long term success?
Technically, yes! It depends on what you call success... Personally, I don't see success to be an everyday meal game - I don't even wanna win 50% of the times I gamble... As long as it's always a heavy return for each time.

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