 |
Today at 07:33:30 AM |
|
As we know and observe - in recent years, China's economy has not only experienced “difficult times” but has also gone from growth to decline. The reasons are many - from COVID19, which hit the economy hard, to the changing relationship with the West, resulting in the loss of markets, investment, access to technology and other things that China is heavily dependent on.
Destabilization in China is guaranteed to create a lot of economic difficulties in neighboring countries, as well as on the geopolitical map of the world, where everything is not good.
What happens next ? I will assume this scenario:
1. Increased withdrawal of Western investment and Western industries from China (related primarily to political conjuncture)
(We are roughly here now)
2. Attempts of the Chinese government to “spare no expense” to keep the economy afloat, which will lead to the burnout of strategic reserves, and will allow to “come to the edge of the abyss”, where without huge Western infusions of money into the Chinese economy the problem will not be solved.
3. strict administrative measures and transfer of the economy under the control of the state, with the curtailment of economic freedoms, which will negatively affect both the efficiency and quality of the economy.
The question is what's next? Realization and acceptance of the problem and correction of mistakes, ceasing to pretend to be the “second pole of the world”, establishment of relations with the West, refusal from dubious “friends”, reintegration into the world economy ? Or ? There may be a path of totalitarianism and isolation, militarization of politics to distract the population from pressing problems and getting the right to total control over people and management of private business ...
Question - what options for the development of events can you assume in connection with this situation?
|
