As for sports betting, I sometimes recall such an interesting analogy: a predatory animal in the savannah that hunts gazelles. Imagine a leopard or a cheetah that hunts a gazelle. The leopard could run aimlessly after gazelles all day until its strength leaves it and it does not catch a single gazelle.
But no predator does this. The leopard chooses situations when the gazelles allow the predator to get quite close to them and only then attacks.
You may ask, what do leopard tactics have in common with sports betting? In my opinion, there are also similar situations in sports betting, when one game becomes a little more predictable than others, but for the bookmaker this is not so.
What are these situations? These can be very different matches.
1. Situations in which a sports team has no motivation to win. When a victory does not fundamentally change anything for this team.
2. When equal teams meet, but one of them has more injured players.
3. When a team is demoralized by frequent losses.
4. When there are a number of factors that make it difficult for this team to win: playing against a strong team, playing away from home, problems with the coach.
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Can you write your own situations in which the outcome of the match becomes a little more predictable and this is not always recognized by the bookmaker?
Well, I currently have no idea of any thing to write down to support the ones you have already listed, so, let's just assume you have mentioned it all, but I will just chip in my thought as regards to your idea generally.
Let me say that based on my betting experience, it's rare that a team will have a better chances of winning a game and the casinos won't know about it, did you even realize that casinos usually have their own sports speculators who spend not only time, but also money in researching and coming up with well detailed analysis of how a match will likely end, this is how the casino usually come up with what is likely to be the best odds to list for a team in an upcoming match.
In situations where an underdog comes on to beat the favorite, rest assured that even the casinos themselves didn't see that coming, it's only by luck, like we saw in 2023 world cup where Saudi Arabia beat Argentina, no one, not even the casinos expected that to happen.