Bitcoin Prediction 2024 - 2025

[piebeyb]

It appears the four-year bull cycle is over, and there's no alt season for the end of the year. Bitcoin appears to have entered a bear market. What are your thoughts on the recent Bitcoin price decline?

[aylabadia05]

It appears the four-year bull cycle is over, and there's no alt season for the end of the year. Bitcoin appears to have entered a bear market. What are your thoughts on the recent Bitcoin price decline?

Because the high level of selling is the cause of this decline. To say that a bear market is imminent, the signs are starting to appear, but I wouldn't say the stronghold is over.

Last July, I said here that $120.xxx would be the ATH, but I was wrong because the ATH of $126.xxx is still holding.
Therefore, with only one month left of 2025, who knows, there might be a surprise that refutes the bullish assumption that the bull run is over, with an ATH exceeding $126.xxx.
I hope that's not a miscalculation as the year-end expectation.

[JayJuanGee]

It appears the four-year bull cycle is over, and there's no alt season for the end of the year. Bitcoin appears to have entered a bear market. What are your thoughts on the recent Bitcoin price decline?

It is too early to proclaim that the bull market is over, even if you hear a lot of folks proclaiming such dumb shit and probably wishful and/or manipulated shit.

Sure the definition of a correction versus bear market is not very clear in bitcoin, yet at the same time, I have a hard time conceding that we entered a bear market merely because we had a 36% correction from our October 6th high (which was merely 7 weeks ago.

Bitcoin no doesn't work like that.

We have had a large number of large corrections of 20% to 30% to even higher levels and we were not kicked out of the bull season based on such interim corrections.

Sure it is possible that we could transition into a bear market, yet it is likely way too soon to be proclaiming such wishful nonsense...

Oh and by the way, some of the dumbass theories about transitioning into a bear market has to do with bitcoin supposedly being on a schedule..   If that is not a lame rationale what else is?  Yeah, we got a lot of dumb fucks panicking and selling their coins and we have some nonsense proclamations that the bear season is here.. .. and surely who wouldn't want to pick up some coins from the weak hands.  That is not a new operation to shake the weak hands of their coins.. and then watch them cry because they are not able to buy back cheaper, as they had expected to be able to buy back cheaper. 

Good luck with that.. Easier said than done to buy back coins cheaper.. which means dumb twats should not have had sold their coins in the first place, and the even better practice would have had been to keep on buying coins, yet ONLY a few folks have continued to buy coins.

It appears the four-year bull cycle is over, and there's no alt season for the end of the year. Bitcoin appears to have entered a bear market. What are your thoughts on the recent Bitcoin price decline?

Because the high level of selling is the cause of this decline. To say that a bear market is imminent, the signs are starting to appear, but I wouldn't say the stronghold is over.

Last July, I said here that $120.xxx would be the ATH, but I was wrong because the ATH of $126.xxx is still holding.
Therefore, with only one month left of 2025, who knows, there might be a surprise that refutes the bullish assumption that the bull run is over, with an ATH exceeding $126.xxx.
I hope that's not a miscalculation as the year-end expectation.

Bitcoin is not on a schedule, so you are likely working with inadequate models if you are trying to specifically plug bitcoin into a model as if it were on some kind of a specific schedule.

You are only hurting yourself when you get locked into such nonsense.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

Sure the definition of a correction versus bear market is not very clear in bitcoin, yet at the same time, I have a hard time conceding that we entered a bear market merely because we had a 36% correction from our October 6th high (which was merely 7 weeks ago.

Bitcoin no doesn't work like that.

We have had a large number of large corrections of 20% to 30% to even higher levels and we were not kicked out of the bull season based on such interim corrections.

History has data on Bitcoin correction percents from all time highs. The latest one is not a worst one but before Bitcoin sinks more (with a condition that it has already been in its bear market), it will have good market bounce for anyone who want to exit in this market cycle can sell their bitcoins at better price than now.

With investors who have comfortable discretionary income for investment, they will see the latest correction, and bearish months ahead as very good opportunities for DCA and accumulation.
Bitcoin sell-offs history.

[aylabadia05]

<snip>

Bitcoin is not on a schedule, so you are likely working with inadequate models if you are trying to specifically plug bitcoin into a model as if it were on some kind of a specific schedule.

Of course, my thinking was wrong because, over time, Bitcoin didn't follow a specific schedule, meaning that the bearish or bullish trend had ended.
I understand that Bitcoin is difficult to predict, but I feel that my thinking wasn't wrong, considering Bitcoin's four-year cycle during and after halvings. One thing is for sure, trying to pretend Bitcoin is on schedule is not justified.
However, if you accept that high selling and weak buying are the causes of Bitcoin's weak price, you don't think that's wrong, right?

You are only hurting yourself when you get locked into such nonsense.

Right.

[JayJuanGee]

<snip>

Bitcoin is not on a schedule, so you are likely working with inadequate models if you are trying to specifically plug bitcoin into a model as if it were on some kind of a specific schedule.

Of course, my thinking was wrong because, over time, Bitcoin didn't follow a specific schedule, meaning that the bearish or bullish trend had ended.
I understand that Bitcoin is difficult to predict, but I feel that my thinking wasn't wrong, considering Bitcoin's four-year cycle during and after halvings. One thing is for sure, trying to pretend Bitcoin is on schedule is not justified.
However, if you accept that high selling and weak buying are the causes of Bitcoin's weak price, you don't think that's wrong, right?

You are only hurting yourself when you get locked into such nonsense.

Right.

I think that if part of the point is to show the flaw in the framing of bitcoin being on a schedule the mere fact that a variety of others are making the same mistake does not justify trying to proclaim that you were kind of right to have had used that model because others were doing it.

Of course, bitcoin has historically formed various patterns, so we can consider that there are some decent chances that the pattern will be repeated, yet if we are looking at such pattern in strict ways and then proclaiming that we know what is going to happen in the future based on such patterns, we are still getting ourselves into trouble even if we are making a mistake that is something similar to the same mistake that others are making.

I am surely not against the use of the 4-year cycle, even though it seems quite problematic to get ridgid in our interpretation of such pattern or to consider that we know specifics of the future based on such pattern.

There may well be a lot of guys who get wrecked when they think that they have the pattern figured out and then the BTC price ends up greatly deviating from such pattern.. and then folks are shocked because they ONLY prepared for one outcome.. or they overly prepared for one outcome and underprepared for alternative possibilities.

In bitcoin it has always seem to have been a good practice to attempt to prepare for either price direction and also to attempt to prepare for extremes that are outside of expectations.  I doubt that matters are going to change into the future, even if some folks might consider that they have matters figured out. .and sure it could still be possible to weight our preparations more in one direction or another, yet not be caught too far off guard if the opposite of our expectations ends up playing out.