This bull run is different...

[coolcoinz]

Or we can say $69K is nothing for majority, people think Bitcoin price will be higher than $69K, that's why they didn't move their coins now.

The launch of Bitcoin ETF make this time different, Bitcoin made new ATH before halving event, that's it, and we're experiencing less volatile than the previous super cycle. I expect it should be the same, the bull run started in Q4 after halving.

Exactly. I've been holding for almost a decade and I don't really care about $70k, which is why I held my coins in Spring and now again when it approaches $70k I'm planning to keep holding.

In the grand scheme of things, when the US and China are printing money and cutting rates, when there's a chance to get a US president who claims to be pro-bitcoin, with ETFs online and doing good, there's no way bitcoin can stay at $70k.

We've all seen this price in 2021. Now after 3 years of high inflation, the good old $70k bitcoin from 2021 is worth $85k because the real value of fiat money has fallen so much. 

In my view, bitcoin is eventually going to $100k, be it this year or the next and that's something I'm ready to wait for.
How many of you, who hold 1 BTC right now could make ~$30k in a few months of doing nothing? I'm not poor, but $30k is a significant amount of money, especially when you multiply by the number of bitcoin in your cold storage.

[Justbillywitt]

I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

I don't really think that bull run has started already, Bitcoin is definitely going to meet some resistance somewhere before it break the ATH. There is still going to be a market correction so I don't think the bull run has started.

So are you suggesting that it is high fees that do usher in the bull run? I don't really think so. The bull run will start as more liquidity keeps coming in, irrespective of the transaction sizes. It is not really about the transaction size that matters. It's about demand for bitcoin and how much holders than sellers that are coming in. I think the high transaction fee of the last bull run, was mearly coincidence. Let it not be seen as a norm that lead to bull run.

[AVE5]

If this your analysis is based on bitcoin bull run, then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.
I don't also expect a high transaction fees at this time because there's no congestion transactions and investors are not moved to sell their coins yet since we haven't broken the record or the current ATH yet.

[LogitechMouse]

I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

It's quite surprising TBH that we are seeing the transaction fees this low while the price of Bitcoin increases gradually.
I respect your opinion regarding the market being in a bull run already, but I don't think that we are there yet.

I still can't see those people in euphoric state where everybody's talking about bull run online. During the last bull run, many are talking about it, and the sentiment around the market is very positive. Right now, it isn't the case and that's why I can't say that we are in a bull market yet. I mean everybody has different perspective on whether we're on a bull market or not. TBH, I also think that this bull run would be different as well. I don't how it will be different from its past bull run back in 2021, but aside from the low transaction fees, I believe there's something unexpected that we will be seeing.

Whatever the case is, let's just be ready for what's happening, and I hope all of us accumulate enough Bitcoins already.

[EarnOnVictor]

About the bull run, yeah, we are in the season, only that it is not impressive yet. The ATH has been stuck since March, I don't think it is now that Bitcoin will hit it again, not to mention breaching it higher. It might take time, but it may happen during the US election week and subsequent months, as it has always helped with Bitcoin's rise. But for the transaction fees, it's not the lowest though but reasonable. And the factors I can think of as responsible are people abandoning Bitcoin for their transactions and moving to altcoins. This has naturally created a lower demand for the network.

[tabas]

then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.

Hmm, not yet in a bull run? but we're close to the former ATH that has happened for this year and that was just this March. We're already on it but I guess people's expectation is superior nowadays of thinking more to come to the price as soon as possible. Everyone has to look at the chart and it doesn't have to be an analysis but just a recognition of how this year has been going so far. We're close to the end of this year and it has gotten a lot to the point that everyone wants more just like me.

I don't also expect a high transaction fees at this time because there's no congestion transactions and investors are not moved to sell their coins yet since we haven't broken the record or the current ATH yet.

Hoping for that to happen until the bull run ends. We can't be sure that transaction fees won't fluctuate, they will also fluctuate just like what we've seen a few months ago.

[Darker45]

The primary reason is that the spams/scams are barely breathing. They had their days. They had their hype. Now, they're merely a dead trend, or perhaps only dormant as they might resurrect once opportunities arise like another halving or when there's a unique block mined or Sat issued or whatever.

Even though the amount of spam has decreased, I would have expected to see a rise in economic transactions. With the price of bitcoin being so high and expected to increase even more, it might be harder for people to justify spending their BTC. I have even considered using Bitcoin as collateral for a stablecoin loan for making big purchases because I know that I will be regretful if I spend BTC and then we see a massive pump.

It's not retail that's primarily driving the market right now. It's huge institutions. And so there's not really a high competition in the network as transactions are few yet large. The combined Bitcoin ETF market is in the billions of daily volume. But they can hardly affect transaction fees as they aren't doing their thing on-chain.

Spending Bitcoin is best when the price is at the top, not when the price is low and has yet to enter the bull run. But, yeah, if there's an anticipated increase, you better keep those coins.

[d5000]

Fees are already somewhat higher than some weeks ago, considering that the Runes/Ordinals boom has waned largely. 85% of transactions approximately are payments, i.e. not related to Ordinals, Runes or other data transactions. And it's becoming difficult to see fees of less than 10 sat/vByte with the exception of weekends and some less active hours.

Also you have to take into account that if the current bull cycle is at least 2 1/2 years long like in the past -- e.g. early 2015 to late 2017 was almost 3 years, and late 2018 to late 2021 too -- then we are still in the mid-bull market, not in the final leg which will take place probably in 2025.

The graph posted here by @hugeblack shows that in 2016 the fees were low, but approximately one year previous to the cycle high, i.e. in early 2017, they already began to rise. They still weren't very high, but it was already a noticeable difference.

In the last bull run 2019-21 we had a similar pattern: In 2019 the fees were low. They started to increase in mid-2020, but still returning to low levels at weekends and in quieter hours and weeks. It was in 2021 when they got really expensive.

2023/24 was an anomaly due to Ordinals and Runes. I don't know if there's a way to calculate how low the fees would have been without inscriptions and other data stuff, but it's very likely that they would have been even lower than now. When people were beginning to complain about Ordinals, I remember regularly 1 sat/vByte transactions were still going through.

[Smack That Ace]

Secondly, I really don't think it actually matters if it comes or not because in other to reap the full dividend of your Bitcoin holdings, it's best to hold in a very long period of time, because with the kind of potential Bitcoin has, I really do believe that it can 10x to 20x of it current price in 10 to 20 years time from now, so it's best to hold resiliently irrespective of wether the bull run comes or not, though I know that so many people will feel or think otherwise, but that's my own take though.

There is nothing wrong and even great if someone can hold bitcoin for 10 or 20 years, and those are the people who really believe in bitcoin and are real investors. But I doubt many of us will be able to do that because sometimes life doesn't allow us to do so. For whales, they invest with their spare money and it is a negligible amount for them, but most of us are people who have a difficult life and are struggling quite a bit with life. Everyone is waiting for bitcoin to explode, so I don't think many people will continue to invest in bitcoin if the price doesn't increase in the coming years.

It's easy to say but doing it is another story entirely. We're taking on more risk when we invest in bitcoin and that means we're making trade-offs, so I think the idea of ​​holding bitcoin for 10 or 20 years and not having a bull run happen. I don't know about other people but I wouldn't trade off it that way.

I also see many people making bold claims like you, that they can hold bitcoin for 10 to 20 years and not care about returns, but I doubt all of them.

[DenBlad]

I expect the fees and wallet addresses to reach a new All time high in 2025 as well. The latest developments of L1, L2, ordinals, BRC20, it is unavoidable to see all the charts go up for Bitcoin in 2025.

What makes you think that, the fee hike was happening at the end of the cycle when the correction was near and the price had exploded to new levels.

It is true that the fees are low but some are still paying higher fees either because of BRC-20 (Ordinals) or because they are using bad wallets which means there is a possibility that the fees will rise significantly in 2025.

If we take what happened in 2017 as an example of bad fees, we will find that the price rises first and then the fees rise.

[STT]

late 2018

Thats way too early to call it as part of the bullish movement.  I remember that period and it was dismal, it might have been great to buy in retrospect but nobody was thinking wow brilliant price for BTC when Im a buyer they were just thinking pure gloom.   2017 it was also not bright till late spring say and then it was increasingly obvious as a good though challenging and unstable market.

   Its only when we look back and see clearly but I reckon the market as a mass is fairly slow to catch on.   Feb 2017 was provably good at the time, it was the lowest prices which rose and gave that clue but lows are not well looked on as its a threat on every low so not a good feeling at the time.  I just try to remember from back then as a pattern of lows are a good place to look for direction, so recent lows have improved hence Im more optimistic of it leading to a far more noticeable positive in the highest prices.

[laijsica]

If this your analysis is based on bitcoin bull run, then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.
I don't also expect a high transaction fees at this time because there's no congestion transactions and investors are not moved to sell their coins yet since we haven't broken the record or the current ATH yet.

Accurately evaluating each price trend based on assumptions can be confusing for investors, so holdings of Bitcoin should be driven by accumulating trends. Anticipation of a bull run can motivate us to run more on each submission and efforts should be made to properly exploit small price correction opportunities. A positive view of the imposition of higher transaction fees at a time when Bitcoin's value is rising tends to encourage holdings. So you should focus on growing your holdings rather than allowing yourself to swim on top of the smaller bull on the price.

[BALIK]

then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.

Hmm, not yet in a bull run? but we're close to the former ATH that has happened for this year and that was just this March. We're already on it but I guess people's expectation is superior nowadays of thinking more to come to the price as soon as possible. Everyone has to look at the chart and it doesn't have to be an analysis but just a recognition of how this year has been going so far. We're close to the end of this year and it has gotten a lot to the point that everyone wants more just like me.

Many believe that the real bull season is yet to come because, in addition to setting higher targets, the bull season that everyone is waiting for is the entire market growing together. But what is happening is that only bitcoin and a few altcoins are growing, the rest of the market is not growing impressively yet. So there is nothing wrong with altcoin investors saying that the real bull season is yet to come.

The bull run of previous cycles, not only Bitcoin but the whole market grew like crazy and many altcoins, shitcoins increased in price by thousands of times...but this has not happened so far.

I don't also expect a high transaction fees at this time because there's no congestion transactions and investors are not moved to sell their coins yet since we haven't broken the record or the current ATH yet.

Hoping for that to happen until the bull run ends. We can't be sure that transaction fees won't fluctuate, they will also fluctuate just like what we've seen a few months ago.

Transaction fees have always increased significantly in previous bull cycles, so I don't expect this year to be any different, things will stay the same.

[icalical]

I think this low fee is mostly because of the popularity of SegWit which lets the transactions just go way more smooth, and then also batching, where they just pile a whole bunch of transactions into one. These upgrades have helped to keep fees in check, even though demand is up, so it doesn't feel like those earlier bull runs where congestion sent costs through the roof. But as great as low fees are for microtransactions, we can't forget that network congestion can still spike during high usage moments, particularly when major news breaks. It's cheap now, yeah, but that doesn't mean it isn't going to spike once the mempool fills up again. All this keeps us on our toes and keeps Bitcoin in the experiment of trying to figure out how it will deal with scalability.

[tabas]

then I'd assume the different is that we haven't gotten to the bull run yet so, let's watch out for when we finally get to the bull run if the past transaction fees and this current circle transaction fees would tally.

Hmm, not yet in a bull run? but we're close to the former ATH that has happened for this year and that was just this March. We're already on it but I guess people's expectation is superior nowadays of thinking more to come to the price as soon as possible. Everyone has to look at the chart and it doesn't have to be an analysis but just a recognition of how this year has been going so far. We're close to the end of this year and it has gotten a lot to the point that everyone wants more just like me.

Many believe that the real bull season is yet to come because, in addition to setting higher targets, the bull season that everyone is waiting for is the entire market growing together. But what is happening is that only bitcoin and a few altcoins are growing, the rest of the market is not growing impressively yet. So there is nothing wrong with altcoin investors saying that the real bull season is yet to come.

The bull run of previous cycles, not only Bitcoin but the whole market grew like crazy and many altcoins, shitcoins increased in price by thousands of times...but this has not happened so far.

If that's the "real" bull run, well I'd assume that it's higher than what we've got for this year. I might be wrong since there's no right or wrong with that assumption of the actual bull run in the perception of each of us. So, if most of the bags by a holder is with altcoins, can't blame them though as it's a fact that not many of the altcoins from this point have gotten up and they have to wait a lil' longer for that. Or that longer means by 2025 and it only takes a few months from now on to enter into that year. And as we've seen in the past that each bull run is different, it's just proving itself to be different and not majority of the alts are going to soar.

Hoping for that to happen until the bull run ends. We can't be sure that transaction fees won't fluctuate, they will also fluctuate just like what we've seen a few months ago.

Transaction fees have always increased significantly in previous bull cycles, so I don't expect this year to be any different, things will stay the same.

There were some moments in the past months when the network was spammed and that caused it to be that expensive. And we just hope for the best that the network stays calm while the price soars if the real or higher expected bull run comes in.

[bitterguy28]

I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

Actually early this year we have experienced another too much fees from Bitcoin and of course Ethereum,but that does not stand that long and now you are correct that we are in the cheapest transaction fees for a bull season .
We are thankful having this kind because it's easy and great when we are in the midst of buying and selling .

[$weetne$$]

I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

The bull run is not different but we have not reach the highest point of the bull market yet that is why Bitcoin network has not been as busy as it used to be during other bull market. What makes the fees increase is when the Bitcoin Blockchain is congested and not because it is a bull or bear market but most times the network get more usage during the bull market as there are many people buying and using theBlockchain therefore the network is more busy. Early this year the fees where also high but we were not in a bull market. Let us wait until next year before we can conclude if the fees did get high or it did not get high. All bull market can not be the same, we should not expect the same things that happened in previous bull market to happen in the next but there could be some similarities.

[yudi09]

I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

Congestion or heavy transactions like BRC20 tokens make the fees expensive than ever before.
If you look at the current Bitcoin transaction fee, it's 18 sat/vB for High Priority compared to a while ago, 18 sat/vB is still high because back then the transaction fee was below 10 sat/vB.
Up until now, the fees for moving Bitcoin have been very low and this is different from the others. Using Bitcoin is not complicated. It's fast and easy.

[justdimin]

I was surprised too when I checked the transaction fees, they’re really cheap these days (checked on mempool). As we’ve all noticed, the market seems to be in a bull run already, with Bitcoin hitting $69k and getting ready to break the current ATH, which should push the price even higher. But yeah, it’s interesting how this time around it’s different compared to the last bull run. Back then, fees were really high, making small transactions almost not worth it. We had to wait until the network congestion eased up before moving any Bitcoin.

Congestion or heavy transactions like BRC20 tokens make the fees expensive than ever before.
If you look at the current Bitcoin transaction fee, it's 18 sat/vB for High Priority compared to a while ago, 18 sat/vB is still high because back then the transaction fee was below 10 sat/vB.
Up until now, the fees for moving Bitcoin have been very low and this is different from the others. Using Bitcoin is not complicated. It's fast and easy.

This is why I hate all those BRC20 stuff, they are ruining bitcoin more than what it already is having trouble with. Not like we have enough transactions, we also have to deal with their load as well. I do not care what type of people likes them, we are not ready for it and it shouldn't exist at all.

I think we need to find a way to patch that up, and I am sure majority of the bitcoin world will accept this as as well. That is how we oved to segwit, we basically had a democratic voting, and it wasn't just 51% that won, it was 90% or something, and I bet we can do this again to ask if cardinals or whatever brc20 tokens should be closed up and we have no more brc20 available.

We really need to make bitcoin transactions cheaper and faster to make it adopted more around the world. Right now, it takes so much to pay for anything with bitcoin, so we use other stuff to make it cheaper and this causes us a lot of trouble and we need to avoid this.

[d5000]

This is why I hate all those BRC20 stuff, they are ruining bitcoin more than what it already is having trouble with.

BRC20 is almost dead, as you can see on the CryptoKoryo Dune.com page (in the last days BRC-20 accounted for about 0,5% of all transactions). And that's a good thing, because BRC20 is the most inefficient thing that was created ever on the Bitcoin blockchain. I suspect it was created by a kid playing around with Ordinals.

Yesterday there seems to have been an increased Runes activity for some hours, at least when I checked this page earlier today 37% of the fees had been paid to Runes. But then I updated the graph and when we look at the whole day, only 7% of the fees were paid by Runes and they made up 8,8% of the transactions.

So your idea to "patch" Runes and Ordinals away (not new at all, of course) would actually not make a big difference anymore. In 2023 this was different, but the fad has ended.

We really need to make bitcoin transactions cheaper and faster to make it adopted more around the world.

Here I agree, but the solution for me are second layers. There are exciting developments these years, even if you don't like Lightning: Ark, BitVM as a new paradigm for bridges and sidechains, other sidechains like Nomic, better bridges to other chains like tBTC which could work also as sidechains (see also this thread) ...