Would you invest in Bitcoin if it only rose 10% per year from now on?

[GreatArkansas]

10% per year is already huge!!!
If you ever get this constantly, this is better than putting your hard-earned money in your bank. Plus in the long term, you will still earn much because of compounding.

But in reality, this is not how Bitcoin works, sometimes we can get more than 10%, or sometimes is negative .

[d5000]

Until now the results of the poll are unanimously positive, i.e. everybody voted for the two "Yes" options. What I wonder of course is if this is only because of "socially expected" behaviour.

I would love some well fundamented "No" answers as well

Some remarks to the posts until now:

1) Some have mentioned that they would invest if the 10% were guaranteed. I would however not go as far as that. In the OP I wrote about a scenario where we had 2 or 3 years with an average price increase of 10%. So some risk would be still involved.

The scenario I had in mind is that the 10% pattern would be approximately seen by a part of the community as a relatively "safe" pattern, but not a "guaranteed" one. For example, influencers would talk about the 10% pattern like they are now talking about the "4-year cycle" or "Stock 2 Flow". But there would no entity guaranteeing to buy all dips in years with negative price evolution.

2) Some mentioned the comparison to the stock market. I think this is indeed an interesting comparison. The scenario I had in mind is basically: "Bitcoin behaves like a major stock market index", or like an (stock) ETF with a portfolio comprising several sectors of the economy.

Taking into account these two clarifications, however, I personally would still look at fundamental data for that decision, like on-chain and L2 transactions, adoption by merchants, and user base studies like the ones published by Crypto.com and Triple A.

[philipma1957]

1
1.1
1.21
1.331
1.4641 four year return
1.61051
1.771561
1.9487171 seven years time

Only a fool would say no to 2x your value every 7 years.

[Lightmanalmani]

10% per year is already huge!!!
If you ever get this constantly, this is better than putting your hard-earned money in your bank. Plus in the long term, you will still earn much because of compounding.

But in reality, this is not how Bitcoin works, sometimes we can get more than 10%, or sometimes is negative .

I agree with you, for an asset you give a 10% Roi per year means its really a valid asset, banks don't give you that, even if you get that from banks in our dreams its still a fixed Roi unlike bitcoin that can give you way more than that.

in the case of the "negative" as you expressed, might just be a retracement on chat.

From all indications bitcoin has proven to give ZERO losses when invested in.

[As-Soon-As]

The future of Bitcoin price is uncertain, because no one can say what Bitcoin price will be until now. But by looking at past price history we can definitely be sure about future prices. It mentions a 10% average price benefit over a few years, though uncertain. So I think the benefit will be several times more than keeping money in the bank from this Bitcoin, because if you can invest now according to the past price demand, then surely you can get future results. That's why we must take risks, knowing the only risk is that those willing to take the risk in investing in Bitcoin will only reap the future benefits, and we can assume that it is generally safe.

[aoluain]

I'll bet many serious investors would take a healthy 10% return on investment every
year. What other investment would yield those returns? few if any I would say. The
question is why are they not in already because the returns are larger now! Is it the
perceived volatility that is a deterrent I wonder?

For those with huge wealth a 10% return is massive, for those with small amounts
to invest I suppose 10% is not that attractive, its certainly not "wen lambo"

[Helena Yu]

1
1.1
1.21
1.331
1.4641 four year return
1.61051
1.771561
1.9487171 seven years time

Only a fool would say no to 2x your value every 7 years.

7 years is really long to go, 7 years ago, people were very happy and not depressed, after Covid 19 happened, people are tend to spend most of their time on screen.

I would rather to invest in hyped big caps shitcoins, I might earn 20% in just few months, it's faster than investing in Bitcoin. But, Bitcoin will be my choice as my biggest investment, I don't need to stress myself to think about my end game. As long as I hold in Bitcoin, I feel safe.

[mu_enrico]

Hypothetically if the risk is still the same but now the return is "only" 10% p.a as per OP's clarification, it's not as sexy as before, and indeed, return-wise, the Bitcoin market competes with the stock market (more precisely the US market). However, not all people have access to the US market, which is the most profitable one. I'd still see it as a good option at least in my country where the local stock market is crap, and using a global broker is a hassle plus greatly taxed. People, especially those who don't have access to the US stock market will still invest, but the question is how much % of their portfolio will be put there, surely there will be rebalancing because of expected return vs risk.

[EluguHcman]

Of course I will do still invest like to convince myself that if the fund was to be saved in the bank, I am either going to keep being taxed for maintenance services rather than earning profit at all.

So if Investing on Bitcoin would only give me a 10% profit, it would be profitable compared to the commercial banks.

Infact in a mathematical algorithm regarding that we could experience the Bitcoin bull-run in the circles of each 4 years, the 10% of each year would give me 40% if I should expect to make profit in a bull-run which is 4 years circle.
So if we can actually hold patiently 4 to make it big, we can as well take the price profits gradually yearly for 4 years. So, I can afford to invest on Bitcoin if only the profit would be accounted on yearly basis.

[Obim34]

It is highly encouraged to post your reasons for your decision, for example if they are related to fears that people could be selling because of an underwhelming price evolution. But for clarity, let's assume the 10%+ pattern really holds for 2-3 years. Would you, in this case, still invest?

10% increase per year might not be enough to duel on but we can benefit from the market following the purpose of our investment. Various reasons why we chose to invest, some as savings but the most reasons are because of the profits we get during the final stage of our investment which takes just more than a year, precisely 4-5 and plus years before hitting the climax, if by the number of years, one might have accumulated an increase of 10% annually into added years, it already would amount to a better figure, not the best outcome but considering the idea of savings and some retirement plans it is still a good investment following how preferable it is compared to saving in banks, no profits attached and likely to face inflation in the economy.

[Justbillywitt]

I will only speak for myself because I don't know for others. Even if bitcoin do only 10% on yearly basis I will still invest in it. For the fact that bitcoin is self custodian I will invest in bitcoin rather than invest it in something else that I won't have total control over. Moreover 10% is still profit, it is better than not investing the money at all. I will still invest in it because I like the idea that bitcoin represents and not just the profit that I will generate from it. If I choose not to invest because the ROI has dropped, it signify that I was only in bitcoin because of the profit and not for the ideology behind bitcoin. Bitcoin is freedom and hope that's why I will keep investing in it.

[Lucius]

snip~

I would not hesitate for a moment to answer that I would be completely satisfied with only 10% per year, which is far better than anything that any bank or investing in government bonds can offer me. Honestly, for me it's not just about the profit (although I won't say it's unimportant), but that I liked being my own bank.

Of course, there is obviously a big difference between those who have, say, 0.10 BTC and 1 BTC, because those who have much more will mostly be satisfied with 10%, others of course will not be nearly satisfied.

[d5000]

Honestly, for me it's not just about the profit (although I won't say it's unimportant), but that I liked being my own bank.

Finally a fundamentals-based opinion I agree fully, Bitcoin doesn't lose its unique freedom-related advantages (censorship resistance, "be your own bank") if the APY decreases.

I would thus be even a bit tolerant to small losses per year (if this bearish phase isn't too long) for this reason, but of course, BTC has to stay somewhat valuable as well.

Hypothetically if the risk is still the same but now the return is "only" 10% p.a as per OP's clarification, it's not as sexy as before [...]

In my scenario, i.e. when Bitcoiners became "accustomed" to smaller returns but the pattern is stable for 2-3 years, the risk of catastrophic bear markets would probably be a bit lower than now. The past 70-90% bear markets were simply the other side of the FOMOish bubbles, as they were triggered by big waves of profit taking when the price increase in the euphoria phase of the bull market was perceived as an exaggeration.

In the "10 % anually" scenario, profit taking would probably take place in a less concentrated fashion. People would take profit when they need money and not when their fear rises that the bubble could burst at any time.

[AmoreJaz]

I will only speak for myself because I don't know for others. Even if bitcoin do only 10% on yearly basis I will still invest in it. For the fact that bitcoin is self custodian I will invest in bitcoin rather than invest it in something else that I won't have total control over. Moreover 10% is still profit, it is better than not investing the money at all. I will still invest in it because I like the idea that bitcoin represents and not just the profit that I will generate from it. If I choose not to invest because the ROI has dropped, it signify that I was only in bitcoin because of the profit and not for the ideology behind bitcoin. Bitcoin is freedom and hope that's why I will keep investing in it.

But you need to consider also the fact that the guarantee of increasing 10% per year is not 100%. Because we don't know what the future holds for this market. The possibility is limitless but how about when a certain technology becomes obsolete.
You can confidently talk such decision if you also have strong belief that this market will continuously survive and improve its developments. The rate is quite big if you compare it with traditional banking. So if there's a guarantee of that price increase each year, definitely, a lot will invest on this market. However, there's no certainty for this price increase because this market is still unpredictable up until now.

[bitgolden]

People who say no to this have absolutely no clue what the yare missing out. Having a stable 10% return, and guaranteed one, for 40 years, means you are going to be wealthy. I mean of course there are people who will miss that chance too, because they have no clue what they are doing, but I can guarantee you that you are going to make a huge return when you do this for long term. I can start investing today, and be a millionaire by year 20, and have everything I can dream of, it's just that simple.

How many people could say the same, how many people in the world who worked for 20 years or more, and have a million dollars? Not many. You know what's the good part about this theory? Bitcoin will continue to average more than 10% a year. Sure it can have bad years, but if you check on 5 year periods, it will have 10% return per year averages then. This is why we need to keep investing, we are not late to the party at all, we are still early and we gotta just keep investing.

[Lucius]

Honestly, for me it's not just about the profit (although I won't say it's unimportant), but that I liked being my own bank.

Finally a fundamentals-based opinion I agree fully, Bitcoin doesn't lose its unique freedom-related advantages (censorship resistance, "be your own bank") if the APY decreases.

I would thus be even a bit tolerant to small losses per year (if this bearish phase isn't too long) for this reason, but of course, BTC has to stay somewhat valuable as well.
~snip~

I have never pretended that profit is not important, but I have also always believed that we must not forget why Bitcoin was created and that its greatest value is precisely in the way it works, and that way allows everyone to be their own bank and make a transaction anytime with anyone in the world. Likewise, Bitcoin has proven to be an excellent hedge against inflation in the last ten years, and as far as I know, it has overtaken all possible assets in this regard.

I would also be ready to accept some losses on an annual basis, but I will repeat that we who have been in all this for a long time and have invested at much lower prices than today have much more tolerance for volatility than some new investors.

[rimoeee]

Yes, I would still invest even if it only rose by 10% as long as that percentage increase is consistent then I feel it's a good investment to embark on instead of engaging on investments that doesn't have an assurance. For someone like me who save a lot, the interest I get on my annual savings are not even up to 10% most can be like 5% to 7% annually but I still do them regardless because I am not attracted to the possibility of outsized profits and I prefer it to anything involving volatility.

[fuguebtc]

Hypothetically if the risk is still the same but now the return is "only" 10% p.a as per OP's clarification, it's not as sexy as before, and indeed, return-wise, the Bitcoin market competes with the stock market (more precisely the US market). However, not all people have access to the US market, which is the most profitable one. I'd still see it as a good option at least in my country where the local stock market is crap, and using a global broker is a hassle plus greatly taxed. People, especially those who don't have access to the US stock market will still invest, but the question is how much % of their portfolio will be put there, surely there will be rebalancing because of expected return vs risk.

Yes, if bitcoin's risk remains the same but the return drops to just 10% per year, it will no longer be attractive. Personally I would not be foolish enough to invest in an asset with high risk but negligible profit margin. A fixed profit of 10% will be an attractive profit when compared to bank deposits, business...but people forget to consider the level of risk, if the level of risk is still high then it is not worth it for us to trade off.

But if bitcoin was as safe as gold or stocks and returned 10% per year, it wouldn't be a bad investment. But I will not focus most of my time and money on bitcoin as I am now, instead I will look for another potential market.

[Lucius]

Yes, if bitcoin's risk remains the same but the return drops to just 10% per year, it will no longer be attractive. Personally I would not be foolish enough to invest in an asset with high risk but negligible profit margin. A fixed profit of 10% will be an attractive profit when compared to bank deposits, business...but people forget to consider the level of risk, if the level of risk is still high then it is not worth it for us to trade off.
~snip~

What exact risk are you talking about? Are you afraid of the possibility that someone will hack Bitcoin, that governments around the world will ban trading through CEX or maybe ban mining? Maybe you're afraid of some other risks that I didn't mention - but realistically, most investments are risky, especially if the person who invests is not familiar with what exactly he's doing.

For me personally, the benefits of investing in BTC are still far greater than all possible risks, and I don't think that will change in the near future.

[Lanatsa]

10% per year is already huge!!!
If you ever get this constantly, this is better than putting your hard-earned money in your bank. Plus in the long term, you will still earn much because of compounding.

But in reality, this is not how Bitcoin works, sometimes we can get more than 10%, or sometimes is negative .

10% is way more better than on what banks do offer on which in speaking on per annum basis on which hands down or there's no doubt that you would be saving up your money in Bitcoin form.

Just like on what you have said that this isnt how Bitcoin or crypto works and even if we do speak about "What If's?" then it will something that drive out people to go for another venture.
We do know that people doesnt really like on really just that having on potential 10% per year kind of gain but rather it is really that something more better.

People will really be just that basically be trying out to find that could give out that x2 of their money or even more.This what makes that this crypto market do really looks interesting because of that kind of
probability or opportunity that does it give.

If it wasn't really be on this way then we wont really be seeing that huge funds that will really be flowing into this market. This isnt something that you can be able to compare or
trying out to look it similar on what those traditional investments or set-ups do really give out or offer about.